Poland next to leave

[panoma1]

12 hours ago, anser2 said:

I very much doubt that Poland will leave the EU. The govenment does not like the EU, but in recent [polls over 80% of the public  are in favour of the EU. The poles know which side their bread is buttered on.

 

To what poles of poles do you refer? Because even poles with a modicum of credibility regularly get it wrong! And 80% of half a dozen poles is not a representative sample.......but it's still 80%!

 

[Kalahari]

Trouble with polls is they aren't a real result. The guesstimate they make seems to get less and less accurate.

 

David.

[yod dropper]

These newer entrants haven't been in long enough for the resentment to fester sufficiently for the foreign object to be expelled.  I wouldn't expect much to happen for another decade or more, it took us long enough. 

I do think the EU borders will change significantly to the extent it's not recognisable; they are not static.  This is primarily a political project and the EU is trying to create it's own identity and for that to succeed in the long term the peoples must increasingly lose their identity and ability to govern themselves.  We shall see if the people stand for that.

 

[Rewulf]

5 minutes ago, yod dropper said:

These newer entrants haven't been in long enough for the resentment to fester sufficiently for the foreign object to be expelled.  I wouldn't expect much to happen for another decade or more, it took us long enough. 

I do think the EU borders will change significantly to the extent it's not recognisable; they are not static.  This is primarily a political project and the EU is trying to create it's own identity and for that to succeed in the long term the peoples must increasingly lose their identity and ability to govern themselves.  We shall see if the people stand for that.

 

Do something slowly ,over multiple generations, and you can turn a populace into something completely different.
The EU has had at least 70 years to put this plan into action, I think that they would have preferred full integration 20 years ago, but certain countries wouldnt play ball.
Brexit puts a massive spanner in the works, make no mistake about that.
The issues that Poland has, along with Hungary,and even to some extent Catalonia, put more pressure on an otherwise frail EU system.
I believe Brussels thought they had nationalism under control, that they had it labelled as far right extremism ,xenophobia, that should be consigned to the dustbin of history.
Well they got it wrong, they have, with their short sighted, blinkered view, fed and nurtured it.
Now its coming back to bite them.

[Honey Monster]

2 hours ago, panoma1 said:

To what poles of poles do you refer? Because even poles with a modicum of credibility regularly get it wrong! And 80% of half a dozen poles is not a representative sample.......but it's still 80%!

 

That 80% is about right I'm afraid.

[panoma1]

3 hours ago, Honey Monster said:

That 80% is about right I'm afraid.

Again! What poll are you referring too? Its rumoured one poll has confirmed the Polish people were 8/1 in favour of leaving the EU!.....

[Honey Monster]

CBOS- centrum badania opinii spolecznej (Centre for Public Opinion Research) . Poll is done once a year. Even if it's a bit too high I think still vast majority is in favor for EU (unfortunately) . I'm polish and when I speak to my firends in Poland I have impression that poll is about right.  They are just happy for getting something for "free" . I mean when they see billboard - "built with Eu funds" they think it was for free. Only problem  now is that "refugee crisis" . Nobody wants even one so called refugee in Poland. We'll se what is going to happen but personally I think Poland will get kicked out of the EU more likely than go out via referendum.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

6 hours ago, Honey Monster said:

CBOS- centrum badania opinii spolecznej (Centre for Public Opinion Research) . Poll is done once a year. Even if it's a bit too high I think still vast majority is in favor for EU (unfortunately) . I'm polish and when I speak to my firends in Poland I have impression that poll is about right.  They are just happy for getting something for "free" . I mean when they see billboard - "built with Eu funds" they think it was for free. Only problem  now is that "refugee crisis" . Nobody wants even one so called refugee in Poland. We'll se what is going to happen but personally I think Poland will get kicked out of the EU more likely than go out via referendum.

Very interesting to have that side of the story.

[Honey Monster]

What is interesting about that? Poland refused to take them and this is the main reason that EU is triggering art. 7 against Poland.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Honey Monster

[TIGHTCHOKE]

I find it interesting that Poland has stood up for itself whilst we have taken in too many.

[TriBsa]

Poland seems to have a government that is in tune with it's people. The EU deride such governments and call them populist. I would call them truly democratic.

[12gauge82]

It's interesting because there's been very little of it mentioned in main stream media, it doesn't fit in with there agenda, I have no doubt the EU will fall apart.

[Honey Monster]

1 hour ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

I find it interesting that Poland has stood up for itself whilst we have taken in too many.

It was easy. We had no colonies in the past. All we had it was some germans, jews and scots .  After 1945 we had no ethnic minorities at all. After WW2 we got most homogeneous society in Europe.  Jews have been murdered by germans. Germans had fled to germany or been deported. Even now Poland has about 98% people  with polish ethnic origin. Watching TV or reading newspapers is very easy to see how multiculturalism (doesn't) work in western Europe, how good that "cultural enrichment" is and  especialy after that big invasion in 2015 when literally milions of so called refugees from entire world just walked in to Europe and we had many "incidents" and nothing was to do with religion of peace etc it is not a rocket science to figure out that is better to stay away  from this. EU has granted Poland with 7000( for a good start) obligatory refugees to take and that was the spark which ignited all quarrel. Similar in Hungary and Czech Rep.

 

[pinfireman]

On 12/21/2017 at 17:49, scotslad said:

No one is disputing we buy more in than we sell.

Bu even if u take the big exporters to us Germany with 25bil and 5-6 others around 10-15 bill, wot % of THERE total exports does that account for?

if u took an absolute worse case scenario and trade almost ceased (or tariffs were so high) it would not be great for those countries but they still have plenty of other options

And I doubt that loss alone would seriously damage the country (even 25 bill) in Germany's case

 

But I bet the UK's total exported to EU is more than 25 billion, we already have 5 to Eire and 3 to sweeden  our trade to EU will be massive and more importantly our % of exports to EU will be very high

All I'm saying is i would far rather be in germany's situation than ours, losing a small % of ur total exports but surrounded by countries u could export to, than ours losing a big % of total exports and very few countries we can realistically start new export trade with (often travel costs, production costs or labour costs) esp quickly 

 

ideally the UK will be forced to become more self suffecient and residents would try to buy british, which at the moment they don't all they want is cheapness.

Plus we hardly make anything ourselves nowadays anyway

 

German car producers would be badly hurt, as we are currently their second largest market...........plus, when we leave, our contributions stop, and that mean Germany, France and Italy picking up the tab, which will infuriate their citizens, as their taxes inevitably increase! On top of that, the current Italian government has said it will take an extra 150,000 African immigrants, and that is now going down like a lead balloon in Italy.  It,s not over until the fat lady sings!

On 12/21/2017 at 18:32, scotslad said:

Germany's trade with UK is only 6.6% of their total  export, while still a big amountto lose  it's not devestating

UK's export to the EU is 43%of our total or 240 billion.

 

While any tariff's no matter wot they are will have an impact on Germany and the other countries but its still shared by all the countries who export to us, but they WILL have a far bigger impact on us, esp if ur factory/company imports a raw material/parts from the EU and sells the finished product to them.

 

Sorry but i do struggle to see how we can dramatically increase our trade with the rest of the world, just the logistics and labour/production costs in the UK will often price us out the market

If it was so easy why have we not done it before now.

 

The expanding markets are China , India, Brazil, Thailand etc etc....that is where opportunity lies! Trade with the EU has been fairly stagnant for a decade! Plus, we rebuild our trade links with the Commonwealth (which we should never have  ended!!!)

[old man]

I am reminded of the saying about every cloud having a silver lining?

Leaving the dictator ship that is Europe could actually make real changes here?

Opportunities?

[Gunman]

The likes of Junkers do not do themselves any favors and in fact reinforce the fact that the EU is little more than a dictatorship in disguise ,when they talk of "democracy with out votes ". Come on Poles !!! Get to it , You made the mistake when you got out of the Soviet Block of getting into another just as bad .Its not to late but leave it much longer and it will be .

[Honey Monster]

We will see. Now is the EU move. They triggered art 7 on 20th December.  They threat Poland that all  subsidies and money will be stopped. If that is going to happen everything is possible. 

[Honey Monster]

????

[jam1e]

On 12/20/2017 at 16:18, Snoozer said:

I love the way there calling it Polexit.

Doubt there's enough Poles left to sustain the economy if they did leave, Although i do know of a work around for that issue but let's not go there ay

 Love it.......

[jam1e]

On 12/20/2017 at 17:26, 12gauge82 said:

The EU is up to its old tricks again, Barnier has stated no transition deal will go beyond December 2019, trying to ruin the UK economy, we should just walk taking our 40 odd billion pounds with us!

I agree. We may struggle for a while, but they're making a so called 'example' of us anyhow, to try and stop others doing the same. I'd rather take our money and chances! But British toffs being what they are, 'they' will bend our, take the shafting from the EU , then keep a good ole stiff upper lip, and thank the EU for giving us a good shafting, shake their hand and then pay billions for allowing them to do it to us!. After the rest start leaving they'll more than likely get better deals....

[jam1e]

On 12/21/2017 at 13:04, TriBsa said:

Poland is in an awkward position geographically, sandwiched as it is between Germany and Russia. Memories of the events of 1939 when it was carved up by Germany and the USSR mean that it is wary of both neighbours. It needs a security guarantor and upon casting off the shackles of communism, found this in joining the NATO alliance. It will need to tread carefully re EU membership. If it leaves, it would be dependant on NATO for security. But the moves by the EU for it's own army run counter to the interests of NATO. It would seem that Germany no longer wants to play as a small part of an inevitably US lead alliance and France has never joined as a full member. A break up of NATO and an increasingly Asia focussed US in terms of defence with the rise of China would leave Poland very exposed if it had no major allies. Might Germany not want back the 100 miles of territory it ceded to Poland with the movement of the border westward in 1945?

I smell a the 4th reich in the air....

[Honey Monster]

On 20.12.2017 at 16:18, Snoozer said:

I love the way there calling it Polexit.

Doubt there's enough Poles left to sustain the economy if they did leave, Although i do know of a work around for that issue but let's not go there ay

O yes, very funny. Really. But  around 3,5mln people left Poland so far compared 4 mln brits living abroad ( 2010). Now probably difference is even bigger.

[Snoozer]

1 hour ago, Honey Monster said:

O yes, very funny. Really. But  around 3,5mln people left Poland so far compared 4 mln brits living abroad ( 2010). Now probably difference is even bigger.

I wonder how many of them moved to Poland from the UK though ?   I think the last count was 27 people of which 13 were considering moving to Somalia we're there's better dental care or was it Kenya, I get the 2 mixed up....

[anser2]

On 22/12/2017 at 09:35, 12gauge82 said:

The twisting by the remain camp is unbelievable, project fear is still at full speed.

There is no such thing as project fear. Its fiction invented by the leavers club. The only problem is that most of the predictions outlined in to so called project fear are already comming true so project fear is in fact becoming project fact!

[anser2]

On 23/12/2017 at 16:48, panoma1 said:

Again! What poll are you referring too? Its rumoured one poll has confirmed the Polish people were 8/1 in favour of leaving the EU!.....

It was published in the newspapers and TV that a number of poles had been done and like most Europeans a large majority was in favour of the EU though the present Polish govenment was very anti EU. I have a number of Polish friends , some of whom I have known for many years and without exception all are strong supporters of the EU. I follow politics very closely both in this country and across the world  and I have never seen anything sugesting 8\1 were in favour of leaving and when I talked to my Polish friends all they could do was laugh at the very suggestion. They are more pro European than many French , in part because they see the EU as a safeguard against Russia once again becoming pro active in moving into their old countries in Eastern Europe. Much the same goes for the Baltic states.