An "offer" from Belgium

[12gauge82]

3 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Of course it's not impossible. There's nothing to prevent the UK from becoming a member of EFTA which would pretty much solve the Irish issue immediately.  But apparently that's unacceptable to the government or to hard-core Brexiters - although why that should be the case is strange, because in reality there doesn't seem to be much of a viable  alternative. When we leave the EU, who are our future trading partners? The whole world is pretty much carved up into trading blocs.....

 https://www.google.com.sa/search?q=world+trade+blocs&safe=strict&client=tablet-android-samsung&prmd=ivmn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi499m2lfTaAhUJ1xQKHVHYDB0Q_AUIESgB&biw=1024&bih=768#imgrc=b9M1myJW7sKX3M:

...so which one are we going to join if not the European one? It's going to be a very cold, hard world without any kind of economic allies or partners at all.

 

Actually I think it would be unacceptable to the democratic will of the people of the UK and would be an unimaginable blow to freedom and democracy in the UK, something with even bigger consequence than Brexit, it was clear that when the referendum was held, that it was a vote to either stay, or leave the EU and all that being a member meant, with no cherry picking, well the UK voted to leave, so no "soft" "medium" or "semi hard boiled" brexit, it's time to leave and the EU can put as many false hurdles in as they want, if the referendum is adhered to, the Ireland border "isue" will not prevent it.

[scotslad]

But Eire are part of the EU so know very well the score with a border with a non EU country is as well as borders with other EEA countries (as did Uk/leavers) i really can't see how an open border will work or how anyone really believes it would.

If we agree to be in EEA it would solve all these problems, but still have to pay into the EU for the privaledge, abide by some of there rules and allow free ovement of people but have no say in anything.

That to me seems a worst case result

 

Assuming there wil be some sort of tarriffs between goods from the UK/europe, if its an open border and DUP won't allow the ferry terminals to be the 'border' how will u keep track of trade agreements and numbers/taxes, how will u keep track of immigrants (most of the overstayed kiwi's and Ozies have been using that route for years,  fly into dublin and ferry across from belfast and back down to london)

A while back someone linked an article about BIP's? border points where all non EU cargo is inspected etc and how they're is a massive shortage of them on the channel and already working to capacity, they will have to be set up somewhere in ireland

If they're is no monitoring wots to stop bw shipping all its cars throu eire, or an eire garage doing it into the UK and profiting all the taxes it should of paid.

 

I bet most MEP's and workers would be lucky to point to NI on a map and wouldn't have a clue where the border lies, but on paper it is no different than any other EU(EEA) non member border.

How would u feel if poland/romania wanted to open a free border with Uktraine/belarus, no  border checks on any goods or people coming across?

On paper it is no different

 

Life can't go on as normal, we voted out we can't have our cake and eat it. If we go on hols to costa del beer we will have to get a visa/permit tha is a small price to pay for most of us to get free from the EU (as is a hard border between eire/NI)

I'm sure it could create quie a bit of work at the border check points checking wagons and push far more wagons over irish sea to holyhead

[Rewulf]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

This is not true. The reason for the shortage of houses is largely due to the change in household formation (More separated families, people living longer), pricing structure and green belt policy. 

How many houses have been taken up by EU  migrants then, none? 

https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/

[Jaymo]

On the flip side- can you or anyone place a percentage of housing currently occupied by what would/could be termed, Dole bludgers or teen mums with multiple offspring?

My guess us a split of 90:10 towards home grown housing claimants but it would be good to know the correct figure so that certain statements can be placed into context.....

 

[Retsdon]

42 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

and the EU can put as many false hurdles in as they want,

The EU isn't putting 'false hurdles' in. The EU, of which the Republic of Ireland is a member, is a single market free trade zone without internal customs borders. So goods or people entering the Rebublic are simultaneously entering the EU and are free to travel seamlessly anywhere within the 27 member states. So what happens at the border between the North and South is very much the EU's business.The UK is choosing , for better or worse, to put itself ouside the single market and as a result its goods and services must, under WTO anti-discrimination rules, be treated by the countries of the EU or EFTA the same as any other countries' goods.And that means equal border and customs checks. Edited to add a link to the WTO rules.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

Edited May 7, 2018 by Retsdon

[12gauge82]

23 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

The EU isn't putting 'false hurdles' in. The EU, of which the Republic of Ireland is a member, is a single market free trade zone without internal customs borders. So goods or people entering the Rebublic are simultaneously entering the EU and are free to travel seamlessly anywhere within the 27 member states. So what happens at the border between the North and South is very much the EU's business.The UK is choosing , for better or worse, to put itself ouside the single market and as a result its goods and services must, under WTO anti-discrimination rules, be treated by the countries of the EU or EFTA the same as any other countries' goods.And that means equal border and customs checks. Edited to add a link to the WTO rules.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

Well we'll have to agree to disagree on the false hurdle issue.

As for a border, if Ireland want to put one in that' up to them, the UK has made it's position clear, no hard border, I'm sure Ireland will choose not to as well, but that's up to them.

[scotslad]

17 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Well we'll have to agree to disagree on the false hurdle issue.

As for a border, if Ireland want to put one in that' up to them, the UK has made it's position clear, no hard border, I'm sure Ireland will choose not to as well, but that's up to them.

 

But that's the whole point it is NOT up to them.

And we really can't choose either, they (EU/Eire) may agree to it being moved for ease to Belfast docks but the DUP have stated that is not on.

But the simple fact is wot ever happens at the channel must also happen in ireland (somewhere)

 

How would u feel if we were staying in EU and poland wanted to open up its border with ukraine??

[Vince Green]

In 2015 the GDP of Ireland was almost exactly a tenth of that in the UK, that's not significant. A lot of what it does earn comes from being a low tax haven for multinationals that earn big money in the Uk. Companies like Google, Facebook, Paypal, Yahoo, Ebay, Likedin. AOL, Twitter, Apple, AirBnB, Intel etc all have their head offices in Ireland.

That's not the full list by any means, that's just what I got by skimming through the Silicon Valley companies. Primark is another one that comes to mind. You will probably find a lot of the food and coffee chains in there as well but I haven't researched them. They are all trading in Britain but paying their tax to Ireland.

Ireland is just shafting us basically by offering corporate tax rates of 2-5%  and it has been for years, now they are faced with all that coming unravelled, well hooray!

This explains in simple terms why Ireland is filling its pants over Brexit but also why its so beneficial in the long term for us to get out,  we definitely shouldn't feel sorry for them

Edited May 7, 2018 by Vince Green

[ordnance]

The UK is a big export market for the Republic of Ireland call their and the EUs bluff, tell them to go ahead and put a hard border in place if they want. 

 

Quote

Britain is itself a crucial export market for Ireland, buying a total of €15 billion worth of goods last year .

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by ordnance

[12gauge82]

23 minutes ago, scotslad said:

 

But that's the whole point it is NOT up to them.

And we really can't choose either, they (EU/Eire) may agree to it being moved for ease to Belfast docks but the DUP have stated that is not on.

But the simple fact is wot ever happens at the channel must also happen in ireland (somewhere)

 

How would u feel if we were staying in EU and poland wanted to open up its border with ukraine??

Well last time I checked, the UK and Ireland are democraticly ruled country's, so unless that has changed, it is up to those 2 country's if they want to put a border in and no one else, but since it would appear nobody wants a hard border, I really don't see what the issue is about, or could it be the EU is making one?

[scotslad]

33 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Well last time I checked, the UK and Ireland are democraticly ruled country's, so unless that has changed, it is up to those 2 country's if they want to put a border in and no one else, but since it would appear nobody wants a hard border, I really don't see what the issue is about, or could it be the EU is making one?

But Eire has signed up to the EU so has to abide by its rules. And 1 of its rules written in black and white is it has to guarantee secure borders to outside trade/goods, and in 10 months time we will be classed as outsiders

 

Yes it could call its bluff, but i imagine the EU with have eire by its balls financely, so it could  fine Eire or cut of subsidies or want loans paid back earlier for breaking agreements.

I must admit i struggle to understand how u can't quite grasp it, these are goverments who have signed pages and pages of treaties all legally binding and with implications if broken.

Really it should be no surprise as nothing has changed, even before the referendum vote was taken and the leave side were wrong to play it down (just as the snp were in the scottish vote a few years earlier) If it went the other way we would be facing the exact same at gretna/berwick

I'm not some remoaner as u like to call them but i'm also not blinkered to the massive problems unravelling tons of paperwork over 3-4 decades which would be written to make them delibertily unravellable, esp with the goverment we have, bunch of numpties

I voted to leave on principle and would do again but it will be a disaster the way things are going the now

[Vince Green]

Ireland's trading relationship with the UK has been less than honest, see my post about three above about hosting tax avoiding multinationals. Also, on the west coast the farms are poor land with very low yield per acre. But farmers claim huge agricultural subsidies perfectly legally and live very well without ever putting a plough in the ground. Indirectly that's our money albeit recycled through Brussels because nobody over there queries how a barren hillside in Donegal can have 45 acres of artichokes under cultivation.

[Retsdon]

8 hours ago, scotslad said:

I voted to leave on principle and would do again but it will be a disaster the way things are going the now

Being ex-pat, I didn't get a vote, but like you I would have voted leave on principle. I've always had a visceral dislike of Brussels. But unlike you, in retrospect  I don't know that it would have been the correct decision.

Firstly,  I think Britain might be leaving just when the EU is changing. The eastern European countries have zero interest in becoming amorphous melting pots of humanity and would have been Britain's natural allies, not only in stopping or even rolling back untramelled immigration within the EU, but also in resisting the erosion of individual states'  autonomous powers that were being or had been usurped by Brussels.

Secondly, I would admit now that at the time of the vote that I wasn't  properly educated on the ramifications and effect on trade that leaving was set to bring. It's not only our trade with the EU that is going to suffer unless we sort out an agreement quick sharp. The fact is that we've been in the EU for 40 years, so just about every single trade agreement we have with any country on the planet will have been negotiated as an integral part of the EU using the EU's negotiating muscle. So once we go outside the EU, those terms will no longer apply and will need to be renegotiated as well. And when you take into account 1) that the world nowadays is largely divided into trade blocs - ASEAN, APEC,  MERCOSUR, NAFTA, CIS,  etc, who negotiate terms with each other on behalf of their members, and 2) that since joining the EU 40 years ago our governmental skills and knowledge of the nuts and bolts of international trade negotiation have atrophied to the point of virtual non-existence, it becomes apparent that the country is just 10 months away from potential economic catastrophe. The lack of competence is probably the real kicker. It's been two years since the vote, and May's government haven't even come up with a coherent draft plan A, let alone any contingency plan B or C. 

And that's the case because, apparently, there is simply not the competence or skills set available to do the job. So instead they're like someone stuck on a railway line with the express train bearing down on them. They know it's coming, but being unable to get themselves off the track they can't bring themselves to lift their heads and look at it. So they watch the birds and flowers instead, and sing to drown out the apporaching rumble.That certainly doesn't bode well for life after exit as a minnow in a pond of trade bloc sized pike.

Edited May 8, 2018 by Retsdon

[Yellow Bear]

9 hours ago, scotslad said:

But Eire has signed up to the EU so has to abide by its rules.

Why  -  most of the others don't.   ref German subsidies of industry by back door and France in just about everything. 

[scotslad]

47 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Why  -  most of the others don't.   ref German subsidies of industry by back door and France in just about everything. 

 

To be fair ur spot on, the other countries including eire seem to please themselves which laws/regulations they follow and how closely.

But u can bet if eire chose to ingnore this 1 the EU would really come down on them.

 

If we had to leave the EU to regain conrol over our borders why do u think Eire can control it's borders any way it wants and still be in the eu??

 

Retsdon, a very good post and very much wot i think.

I would vote to leave again not because i think it was the correct choice but my principles are still the same, I hopefully could see throu a lot of the BS spouted on both sides as not stuanch either way., i have to say none of these problems are really surprising me, and i can't see any other wayy than a hard border at the border in NI

With a better stronger government our future would be a lot more hopeful, our mps/msp's are the weakest bunch we've ever had, its really crying out for a Thatcher type carracter to tell EU where to go.

The way i imagine negotations going UK is badly, so we should be going flat out building/bracing for a NO deal so building wot ever customs things it has too for a worst case scenerio, which would also prove to eu we mean business and are not going to be lumbered with a rubbish deal.

 

I imagine any deal will have some sort of trade tariffs or a very lest quota's so there smply has to be check points somewhere.

Like vince said eire can sometimes be a 'wee bit dodgy' at times (a big % of stolen quads, machines, plant heads across the irish sea) so if it was an open border eire would become a smuggling mecca for all sorts of dodgy goods to avoid any eu tarrifs

[12gauge82]

10 hours ago, scotslad said:

But Eire has signed up to the EU so has to abide by its rules. And 1 of its rules written in black and white is it has to guarantee secure borders to outside trade/goods, and in 10 months time we will be classed as outsiders

 

Yes it could call its bluff, but i imagine the EU with have eire by its balls financely, so it could  fine Eire or cut of subsidies or want loans paid back earlier for breaking agreements.

I must admit i struggle to understand how u can't quite grasp it, these are goverments who have signed pages and pages of treaties all legally binding and with implications if broken.

Really it should be no surprise as nothing has changed, even before the referendum vote was taken and the leave side were wrong to play it down (just as the snp were in the scottish vote a few years earlier) If it went the other way we would be facing the exact same at gretna/berwick

I'm not some remoaner as u like to call them but i'm also not blinkered to the massive problems unravelling tons of paperwork over 3-4 decades which would be written to make them delibertily unravellable, esp with the goverment we have, bunch of numpties

I voted to leave on principle and would do again but it will be a disaster the way things are going the now

So what your saying is, that the UK won't put in a hard border, Ireland won't put in a hard border, but the EU might force Ireland to do so as they wouldn't be happy with that situation, causing all the misery that could potentially go with that, sounds like another reason Ireland and others should leave the undemocratic mafia gang that is the EU and it reaffirms why this country voted to leave. The UK has clearly stated it's position, no hard border!

[Wb123]

10 hours ago, scotslad said:

But Eire has signed up to the EU so has to abide by its rules. And 1 of its rules written in black and white is it has to guarantee secure borders to outside trade/goods, and in 10 months time we will be classed as outsiders

 

Yes it could call its bluff, but i imagine the EU with have eire by its balls financely, so it could  fine Eire or cut of subsidies or want loans paid back earlier for breaking agreements.

I must admit i struggle to understand how u can't quite grasp it, these are goverments who have signed pages and pages of treaties all legally binding and with implications if broken.

Really it should be no surprise as nothing has changed, even before the referendum vote was taken and the leave side were wrong to play it down (just as the snp were in the scottish vote a few years earlier) If it went the other way we would be facing the exact same at gretna/berwick

I'm not some remoaner as u like to call them but i'm also not blinkered to the massive problems unravelling tons of paperwork over 3-4 decades which would be written to make them delibertily unravellable, esp with the goverment we have, bunch of numpties

I voted to leave on principle and would do again but it will be a disaster the way things are going the now

I voted leave also but am not sure I would again (at the time I was pretty 50:50 on it).

 

My understanding of the argument for leaving was that it would give us more flexibility to compete both intercontinentally and to an extent across Europe if we could get an appropriate deal for access to the EU markets. In essence rather than watching tax get poached by Ireland we would be in a better position to keep it at home and poach from surrounding countries, plus hopefully get better access to some wider markets for our service industry. Our cost of labour would have to come down substantially before the industrial sector would be likely to see any benefit though as I understand it. 

Ireland could of course follow us out of the free trade area and we could go back to our own smaller version, but they get more from Europe than from us. They know which side their bread is buttered and will be very keen to stay in Europe. 

If after two years of negotiations, and a period of separation of another few years there is no significant improvement in our situation I would absolutely support a second referendum if the EU would accept us back on similar terms to those from which we left. We do need to give leaving the EU a proper go but without decent access to the EU markets or another new and large market (and fast) I suspect the economic price may be higher than the electorate will tolerate. 

[Gordon R]

The EU enforces its own rules when it suits. When it doesn't they ignore them. I can't grasp why UK residents seem intent on instilling fear into their own population, with warnings of problems in Ireland. They are doing the EUs job for them.

It is bullying and we are helping them. 

Does the EU insist on refugees applying for asylum in the first country they land or do they permit them to cross several countries and lay siege to the UK? No prizes for guessing the answer.

We are leaving the EU and no pathetic amount of scaremongering can alter the vote. Any party not delivering would face years in the wilderness.

As for the statistics on housing - is there anyone who can say who occupies what housing? The answer is no. Anyone claiming to know would be a liar - plain and simple.

[12gauge82]

I'm actually at the point I would welcome a second referendum, due to the remainiacs in power trying to block a democratic vote. I beleive if we had another referendum there'd be a much bigger majority and it might silence the remoaners in Westminster but then again it probably wouldn't, they'd have to continue their fight against the thick, racist, small minded little Englanders ?

[Wb123]

27 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

I'm actually at the point I would welcome a second referendum, due to the remainiacs in power trying to block a democratic vote. I beleive if we had another referendum there'd be a much bigger majority and it might silence the remoaners in Westminster but then again it probably wouldn't, they'd have to continue their fight against the thick, racist, small minded little Englanders ?

I'm not keen on a second vote at this stage, I fear we would end up with a slight swing to remain and an opportunity lost. I would however strongly favour a second referendum when the dust settles and people have seen whatever Brexit brings. Hopefully it will be increased prosperity and quality of life for most/all, in which case a second referendum to cement it as the informed democratic choice should keep the very pro Europe chaps at bay for a generation. If on the other hand Brexit is felt to have worsened the lot of the bulk of people a second referendum to reconsider seems fair. At a rough guess a second referendum in five years seems about right.

For me leaving the EU seems rather like leaving a steady job to go self employed, you need to be prepared for a rocky few years at first whilst exploring if it works out worthwhile, but one keeps the option to apply for jobs. I wouldn't view myself as particularly pro Brexit, but I fall more towards Brexit than against. I do however have the safety blanket of qualifications and a job I can reasonably easily emigrate with if things go bad, and a better half with dual nationality and an EU passport. Many other people without such luxuries plus kids and a mortgage may have to be less risk averse and I can understand why they would want to support the status quo. 

[scotslad]

Surely it's not scaremongering if its true or atleast a distinct possibility??  Esp if its a no deal or hard brexit

After all we're only basing an assumption on everything written down in 3 constitutions.

 

I do doubt u'd win a 2nd referndum.

If that was the case why when the GE came round did so many folk vote for eu loving Liebour??

The public had the ideal chance to really put a pro brexit westminster together but done the exact oppisate

May done the right thing to try and strengthen the tories grip, but made a complete mess of it. She's now relying on DUP mp's to shore up her government, which puts them in a perfect place to put some major leverage on her over the irish issue

Mustt admit i'm still surprised more of u didn't have a moan about the whole DUP thing at GE time, did may not offer an extra billion pounds to NI in return for there votes?

Have u seen some of the things the dup stand for, i'm actually surprised they don't still think the earth is flat

 

Ps Going back in would be a complete disaster, no matter how bad it gets, no way the EU would allow UK all the exemptions/concessions  it has the now, they would shaft us good and proper and we'd probably have to take the euro on as currency.

Going back is really not an option, which is why we need to get the best deal now

[Gordon R]

I'm not sure anyone would want to rejoin, what would be left of the EU, in five years time. We are one of the very few net contributors and when we leave, who will pay more? 

Few of the issues now being mentioned were issues in the referendum. They have been dragged up since by sad and desperate Remainers and the EU pigs with their snouts in the trough.

[12gauge82]

Spot on Gordon.

If you strip it all back to basics, (something which the EU is desperate for us not to do, because they want to cause fear and confusion to prevent us and others from leaving) we pay a huge amount of money to be a member of a club that we buy far more from than they buy from us, it also prevents us from buying from others, or selling to others, it also means opening our borders to whoever they tell us, that also takes our resources like fish and shares it with whoever it wants, tells us laws we must follow and there's nothing we can do about it and we don't get a vote on the EU commission. Imagine if the EU didn't exist yet and them asking us if we wanted to join a club like that, I'm confident I know what the UKs answer would be.

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, Gordon R said:

The EU enforces its own rules when it suits. When it doesn't they ignore them. I can't grasp why UK residents seem intent on instilling fear into their own population, with warnings of problems in Ireland. They are doing the EUs job for them.

It is bullying and we are helping them. 

Does the EU insist on refugees applying for asylum in the first country they land or do they permit them to cross several countries and lay siege to the UK? No prizes for guessing the answer.

We are leaving the EU and no pathetic amount of scaremongering can alter the vote. Any party not delivering would face years in the wilderness.

As for the statistics on housing - is there anyone who can say who occupies what housing? The answer is no. Anyone claiming to know would be a liar - plain and simple.

Spot on Gordon 

6 minutes ago, scotslad said:

Surely it's not scaremongering if its true or atleast a distinct possibility??  Esp if its a no deal or hard brexit

Its the same scaremongering that was done by remain during the referendum, they are smelling confusion and capitalising on it by spreading uncertainty.
If they had any loyalty to their country ,they would get behind the government and support it.
May and co are struggling because they have low support in parliament, so struggle to negotiate when they know MPs could chuck a spanner in the works.
The people voted to leave, not parliament, and remain MPs need to remember that.

 

14 minutes ago, scotslad said:

 

I do doubt u'd win a 2nd referndum.

If that was the case why when the GE came round did so many folk vote for eu loving Liebour??

Err, student loans cancelled ? Corbyn promising the earth and delivering nothing.

 

1 hour ago, scotslad said:

 

The way i imagine negotations going UK is badly, so we should be going flat out building/bracing for a NO deal so building wot ever customs things it has too for a worst case scenerio, which would also prove to eu we mean business and are not going to be lumbered with a rubbish deal.

 

Spot on.
 

12 hours ago, scotslad said:

But Eire has signed up to the EU so has to abide by its rules. And 1 of its rules written in black and white is it has to guarantee secure borders to outside trade/goods, and in 10 months time we will be classed as outsiders

 

Yes it could call its bluff, but i imagine the EU with have eire by its balls financely, so it could  fine Eire or cut of subsidies or want loans paid back earlier for breaking agreements.

I must admit i struggle to understand how u can't quite grasp it, these are goverments who have signed pages and pages of treaties all legally binding and with implications if broken.

 

You have bought in to the idea that the EU rules over us, it doesnt, it would like to, and was on course to do so.
With its own armed forces. centralised banking and tax settings, it would be one step closer to the superstate dream.

Its not even like we LET it happen, when us , or any other country protested about something, we were ignored, referendums ignored, mass immigration ignored.
If the EU is good at one thing, its sweeping bad news under the carpet and ignoring any dissent from member nations, thats NATIONS, sovereign self ruling nations , not states, that Brussels seems intent on calling us.
Dont forget that, we can do what ever we want, and the EU can protest as much as they like, they can get used to being ignored now.
Brussels should butt out and let the UK and Eire sort out the border, the only interest the EU has in that border is as a means to put pressure on  the UK in these so called 'trade' negotiations.

[Vince Green]

Anybody who has been through a divorce will be more than familiar with the signs, impossible demands followed by tactical objections and unreasonable threats. Then they go all innocent and tell everybody they only want to get things sorted out but its you thats being uncooperative.

Been there, find all this a bit Deja Vu to be honest