Brexit - merged threads

[Rewulf]

2 hours ago, Retsdon said:

 

The EU would calculate that the UK would be back at the table with its chequebook out within the week. So, to sum up, we know that those who argue for “no deal”......

 

Back to the question of 'who' has the best hand of cards.
Do you seriously believe we would be where we are if we didnt fancy our chances, the EU is bluffing, because they HAVE to, Brexit is a direct threat to the continued existence of the project.
We can call it off and pretty much lose nothing, they cannot, they are 'all in'

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, Newbie to this said:

Anything we buy from the EU member states, we can buy from elsewhere.

Quite. But as my old Uncle Charlie used to say, 'you can run and buy, but you have to stand and sell'. Not to mention the collaborative ties that a whole swathe of British manufacturing and service industries have with European partners that are dependent on seamless borders for their very existence. Here are the trading weights (I couldn't later stats) between EU countries. Note that the UK only features as a top 3 trading partner with Ireland. With everyone else, we're in among the herd. Germany we are not....Edit, sorry overlooked NL and Malta.

Edited September 8, 2018 by Retsdon

[Gordon R]

Whatever argument is put forward for either side, you can always guarantee someone will come back with a "Remain" point" - normally citing a "Remain" expert's view, rather than an economics professor who says we will be better off.  Very predictable.

[Newbie to this]

57 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Quite. But as my old Uncle Charlie used to say, 'you can run and buy, but you have to stand and sell'. Not to mention the collaborative ties that a whole swathe of British manufacturing and service industries have with European partners that are dependent on seamless borders for their very existence. Here are the trading weights (I couldn't later stats) between EU countries. Note that the UK only features as a top 3 trading partner with Ireland. With everyone else, we're in among the herd. Germany we are not....Edit, sorry overlooked NL and Malta.

 

2 hours ago, Newbie to this said:

The EU is not the be all and end all with regards to trade, the World is a big place.

 

[pinfireman]

5 hours ago, Retsdon said:

No court needed. From the Rogers speech I  linked to above.

Let’s think it through.. The reality, in any breakdown scenario, is that any UK PM who felt obliged to say that the Withdrawal negotiations had reached a dead end, would refuse to pay the exit bills. And the inevitable response to that from all 27 in the Council the following day would be to say there would be no resumption of normal trading relations with the UK unless and until it had agreed to honour its full debts. In the meantime, the 27 would no doubt enact, at 27, the emergency provisions, which enabled whatever continuity in whichever sectors it deemed in its interests. That would not mean the complete cessation of all business. Of course not. It just means an entirely unilateral and deliberately asymmetric selection by the EU of where there will be continuity and where there will not.That is not taking back control. That is giving it up.

The EU would calculate that the UK would be back at the table with its chequebook out within the week. So, to sum up, we know that those who argue for “no deal”......

 

Interesting, but, seeing how the member states are swinging to the Right, anti-EU parties, perhaps the the Kommissars in Brussels might take a more conciliatory tone? Watch the forthcoming Swedish elections......Socialist for the last 100 years, probably now about to change toa anti-EU government.  Interesting times, and Brussels is slowly losing ground! Thank God!

[12gauge82]

To put it into purspective, approximately 35% of the world's trade is done in the EU, which means 75% is done outside of it, you don't need to be a mathematition to realise that trading with the EU is not the be all and end all, which is why I laugh when the remainiacs accuse the leavers of having a little island mentality or similar, it is making the mistake of believing we must cling to the EUs apron strings for fear of being shut out of trade, the moment we leave the EU as a free sovereign nation, we gain the rest of the world to potentially trade with.

[pinfireman]

3 hours ago, Newbie to this said:

Again I don't see it that way. Anything we buy from the EU member states, we can buy from elsewhere. It's the EU member states that would be back at the table with cap in hand not the UK. We have many non EU Countries waiting to trade, the EU is not the be all and end all with regards to trade, the World is a big place.

130 plus countries outside the EU.............including the world,s top 2 economies, USA and China, the top 2 emerging big economies, India and Brazil....we are also the EU,s biggest customer, so hardly likely to put into action something that will pee off the entire British nation....Big business runs the EU, the politicians there are merely the flunkies of that big business! German and French car makers top the list, what they say goes! They are not going to risk losing one of their best customers just because Juncker and Barnier have a hissy fit!

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Back to the question of 'who' has the best hand of cards.
Do you seriously believe we would be where we are if we didnt fancy our chances, the EU is bluffing, because they HAVE to, Brexit is a direct threat to the continued existence of the project.
We can call it off and pretty much lose nothing, they cannot, they are 'all in'

Correct

[12gauge82]

1 minute ago, pinfireman said:

130 plus countries outside the EU.............including the world,s top 2 economies, USA and China, the top 2 emerging big economies, India and Brazil....we are also the EU,s biggest customer, so hardly likely to put into action something that will pee off the entire British nation....Big business runs the EU, the politicians there are merely the flunkies of that big business! German and French car makers top the list, what they say goes! They are not going to risk losing one of their best customers just because Juncker and Barnier have a hissy fit!

Spot on, it's just more remainiac hysteria.

[amateur]

4 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

To put it into purspective, approximately 35% of the world's trade is done in the EU, which means 75% is done outside of it, you don't need to be a mathematition to realise that trading with the EU is not the be all and end all, which is why I laugh when the remainiacs accuse the leavers of having a little island mentality or similar, it is making the mistake of believing we must cling to the EUs apron strings for fear of being shut out of trade, the moment we leave the EU as a free sovereign nation, we gain the rest of the world to potentially trade with.

Does Dianne Abbott do your statistics? 😄

Edited September 8, 2018 by amateur

[pinfireman]

1 hour ago, Gordon R said:

Whatever argument is put forward for either side, you can always guarantee someone will come back with a "Remain" point" - normally citing a "Remain" expert's view, rather than an economics professor who says we will be better off.  Very predictable.

 

1 hour ago, Newbie to this said:

 

 

But take the UK as an average  across ALL EU countries, and we are a big player!

5 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

To put it into purspective, approximately 35% of the world's trade is done in the EU, which means 75% is done outside of it, you don't need to be a mathematition to realise that trading with the EU is not the be all and end all, which is why I laugh when the remainiacs accuse the leavers of having a little island mentality or similar, it is making the mistake of believing we must cling to the EUs apron strings for fear of being shut out of trade, the moment we leave the EU as a free sovereign nation, we gain the rest of the world to potentially trade with.

Correct!

2 minutes ago, amateur said:

Does Dianne Abbott do your statistics? 😄

So he had a typo? So what?

[Yellow Bear]

2 minutes ago, amateur said:

Does Dianne Abbott do your statistics? 😄

Beat me to it

[pinfireman]

Just watch the results of the Swedish Elections......after 100 years of continuous socialism, the doo doo is about to hit the fan! An anti-EU, anti-immigrant Party is now larger than the ruling socialist party, which has only been kept alive by coalitions....A very good chance that this time they are OUT!

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Tomorrow is the big day, the whole shebang is up for poling from Councils to Parliament, a new Riksdag is in the offing.

[amateur]

11 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

So he had a typo? So what?

Because if you are going to make a mathematical point, at least get the basic maths right

 

Edited September 8, 2018 by amateur

[pinfireman]

4 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Tomorrow is the big day, the whole shebang is up for poling from Councils to Parliament, a new Riksdag is in the offing.

Fingers crossed!

[Rewulf]

5 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

Just watch the results of the Swedish Elections......after 100 years of continuous socialism, the doo doo is about to hit the fan! An anti-EU, anti-immigrant Party is now larger than the ruling socialist party, which has only been kept alive by coalitions....A very good chance that this time they are OUT!

Unless its a major shocker, and Im not ruling it out, the SD will make some big gains, but that is all.
The other parties will simply band together and form a grand coalition against them, none of them say they will work with the SD.
But ... given the amount of disinformation coming out of Sweden, regarding crime and immigration that shocker might happen, heres hoping.

4 minutes ago, amateur said:

Because if you are going to make a mathematical point, at least get the basic maths right

 

I think we got the gist of what he was trying to say, but if you want to be picky..

[12gauge82]

12 minutes ago, amateur said:

Because if you are going to make a mathematical point, at least get the basic maths right

 

It's not my maths that's out though, have you ever made a typo? Particularly when your typing on a smart phone. My point stands, the trade market is far bigger outside of the EU.

[Retsdon]

33 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

Interesting, but, seeing how the member states are swinging to the Right, anti-EU parties, perhaps the the Kommissars in Brussels might take a more conciliatory tone? Watch the forthcoming Swedish elections......Socialist for the last 100 years, probably now about to change toa anti-EU government.  Interesting times, and Brussels is slowly losing ground! Thank God!

Correct, the member states are swinging to the right but I think there's a danger of conflating anti-EU with anti current EU leadership. They're not the same thing. While parties like the Swedish Democrats, the Af,D in Germany or the Five Star Movement in Italy along with Visegrad governments might be anti-immigration or anti-Brussels inspired centralization, that does n't mean that they want to break up the EU so much as that they want to change the guard in Brussels, or at least the direction that Brussels is taking. And really, given enough domestic support they have the power to do so. The issue is political,. not economic. Nobody is suggesting destroying or opting out of the single market. 

 

42 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

38 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

To put it into purspective, approximately 35% of the world's trade is done in the EU, which means 75% is done outside of it, you don't need to be a mathematition to realise that trading with the EU is not the be all and end all,

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/world-free-trade-areas-everything-you-need-to-know/

Unfortunately a very high proportion of your 75% is done within already established regional trade blocs. Like the one we're leaving.....

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

11 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Correct, the member states are swinging to the right but I think there's a danger of conflating anti-EU with anti current EU leadership. They're not the same thing. While parties like the Swedish Democrats, the Af,D in Germany or the Five Star Movement in Italy along with Visegrad governments might be anti-immigration or anti-Brussels inspired centralization, that does n't mean that they want to break up the EU so much as that they want to change the guard in Brussels, or at least the direction that Brussels is taking. And really, given enough domestic support they have the power to do so. The issue is political,. not economic. Nobody is suggesting destroying or opting out of the single market. 

Surely the only way to change the top is to have the whole house of cards tumble!

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Retsdon said:

Correct, the member states are swinging to the right but I think there's a danger of conflating anti-EU with anti current EU leadership. They're not the same thing. While parties like the Swedish Democrats, the Af,D in Germany or the Five Star Movement in Italy along with Visegrad governments might be anti-immigration or anti-Brussels inspired centralization, that does n't mean that they want to break up the EU so much as that they want to change the guard in Brussels, or at least the direction that Brussels is taking. And really, given enough domestic support they have the power to do so. The issue is political,. not economic. Nobody is suggesting destroying or opting out of the single market. 

 

 

Thats an interesting point.
What you are saying is, the only reason we have this dissatisfaction within the EU , is because of EU policy and direction.
Ive always said the EU is a good idea, when its kept to trade and customs, when it tries to interfere in individual countries legal and sovereign business, it is stepping outside of what people consider acceptable.
So when some countries rebel against what they dont like , like us , Poland , Italy, Hungary ect, what does the EU do?  Ignores them, or threatens to fine and sanction them.

Im sure they dont want to break up the EU, I dont think Brexit is designed to break up the EU, but if your countries interests come 2nd to the project, then what choice do you have ?
The people who live in your country, the ones who pay your wages WILL have a say in the matter, they WILL remove the decision from the government at some point, in some way.
Ill make this very simple.
We did not vote to be ruled over and administered from Brussels, their interests do not always coincide with ours, so we have voted to remove ourselves from them.
Not from Europe, but from the EU , we can still trade with European companies, and the EU can not stop that.
It it tries to hinder trade, then it will just create even more dissatisfaction within its borders.
And frankly, being what it is , that wouldnt surprise me .

[pinfireman]

4 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Correct, the member states are swinging to the right but I think there's a danger of conflating anti-EU with anti current EU leadership. They're not the same thing. While parties like the Swedish Democrats, the Af,D in Germany or the Five Star Movement in Italy along with Visegrad governments might be anti-immigration or anti-Brussels inspired centralization, that does n't mean that they want to break up the EU so much as that they want to change the guard in Brussels, or at least the direction that Brussels is taking. And really, given enough domestic support they have the power to do so. The issue is political,. not economic. Nobody is suggesting destroying or opting out of the single market. 

 

 

But, unlike your EU, many of them can, and will, trade outside those blocs! The EU is the most restrictive trading bloc!

 

4 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Correct, the member states are swinging to the right but I think there's a danger of conflating anti-EU with anti current EU leadership. They're not the same thing. While parties like the Swedish Democrats, the Af,D in Germany or the Five Star Movement in Italy along with Visegrad governments might be anti-immigration or anti-Brussels inspired centralization, that does n't mean that they want to break up the EU so much as that they want to change the guard in Brussels, or at least the direction that Brussels is taking. And really, given enough domestic support they have the power to do so. The issue is political,. not economic. Nobody is suggesting destroying or opting out of the single market.

Plus, some of the Parties you mentioned actually DO want to leave the EU ! The EU is in trouble, and, if it does not change on major issues like immigration, and fee movement, it,s finished!  And I cannot see the Brussels Kommissars changing............far too blinkered!

 

 

 

[Retsdon]

4 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Surely the only way to change the top is to have the whole house of cards tumble!

Not really. The EU Commission is basically made up of appointees from the member states. If enough states believe that further centralization is contrary to their and the EU's interests, there's nothing to stop them actually reversing the process. It might take a while to turn the ship, but it's not impossible.

4 hours ago, Rewulf said:

we can still trade with European companies, and the EU can not stop that.

Yes, but the problem is that from outside the single market you can't trade on competitive terms.

[pinfireman]

5 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Unless its a major shocker, and Im not ruling it out, the SD will make some big gains, but that is all.
The other parties will simply band together and form a grand coalition against them, none of them say they will work with the SD.
But ... given the amount of disinformation coming out of Sweden, regarding crime and immigration that shocker might happen, heres hoping.

I think we got the gist of what he was trying to say, but if you want to be picky..

Even if the SD come second, that,s a major shift in Swedisdh politics, and,if the authorites continue to prove to hapless, and helpless over immigration, and all the unrest and crimes committed by said immigrants, they will walk it the next time! Swedish crime rates are through the roof!  Like here, many go unreported by a "liberal" Press.

4 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Surely the only way to change the top is to have the whole house of cards tumble!

YES!

4 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Thats an interesting point.
What you are saying is, the only reason we have this dissatisfaction within the EU , is because of EU policy and direction.
Ive always said the EU is a good idea, when its kept to trade and customs, when it tries to interfere in individual countries legal and sovereign business, it is stepping outside of what people consider acceptable.
So when some countries rebel against what they dont like , like us , Poland , Italy, Hungary ect, what does the EU do?  Ignores them, or threatens to fine and sanction them.

Im sure they dont want to break up the EU, I dont think Brexit is designed to break up the EU, but if your countries interests come 2nd to the project, then what choice do you have ?
The people who live in your country, the ones who pay your wages WILL have a say in the matter, they WILL remove the decision from the government at some point, in some way.
Ill make this very simple.
We did not vote to be ruled over and administered from Brussels, their interests do not always coincide with ours, so we have voted to remove ourselves from them.
Not from Europe, but from the EU , we can still trade with European companies, and the EU can not stop that.
It it tries to hinder trade, then it will just create even more dissatisfaction within its borders.
And frankly, being what it is , that wouldnt surprise me .

Interesting post! Federalism, and Free Movement are the big sticking points....plus unlimited immigration!

6 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Not really. The EU Commission is basically made up of appointees from the member states. If enough states believe that further centralization is contrary to their and the EU's interests, there's nothing to stop them actually reversing the process. It might take a while to turn the ship, but it's not impossible.

Yes, but the problem is that from outside the single market you can't trade on competitive terms.

Unelected, appointed Kommissars...........And let,s be honest, it,s whatever Germany, and particularly Big Business Germany, wants!

[pinfireman]

7 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Not really. The EU Commission is basically made up of appointees from the member states. If enough states believe that further centralization is contrary to their and the EU's interests, there's nothing to stop them actually reversing the process. It might take a while to turn the ship, but it's not impossible.

Yes, but the problem is that from outside the single market you can't trade on competitive terms.

and neither can they! It,s a two way street, and looking at all the unrest in the EU, I cannot believe the numpties in the Commission will risk that!

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

Swedish crime rates are through the roof!  Like here, many go unreported by a "liberal" Press.

That's very true - but the problem hasn't been so much with the EU as it has been with the Swedish government's long term policy of letting in all and sundry who claim to be refugees. Under EU law,. they're not obliged to - it's more a case of misplaced Swedish altruism that's come back to bite them on the behind. On the topic of outside immigration Brussels is pretty toothless really when it comes to individual states. When the Poles and the Hungarians effectively  put up the No Entry signs all Brussels could do was grizzle and finger wag. The fences and the not welcome here message didn't change one iota.