Dave-G Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said: get totally stuffed by the united states of soviet Europe, And would that apply to the commonwealth too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: The situation as I see it is like this; Next week there si a vote on May's deal - Parliaments choice. If it passes - then we are on the 'May deal' for the Transition period - which we cannot end without EU agreement. If it looses, we have four choices (whoever ends up in power); No deal so called 'hard brexit' Try and renegotiate the 'deal'. Second referendum Remain 'in'. Looking at these in turn; Although Parliament has agreed to leave (Article 50 vote) they also have to have a 'meaningful vote' on the leave arrangement. They will not get a majority for no 1 - Neither Labour, Lib Dems, Scot Nats would support this - and nor would some Tories ........ so it would never pass. The EU has said they will not renegotiate. In practice - they probably would - but would not move much. Merkel and Macron both have troubles at home with seriously diminishing support - and giving ground to the UK won't help that. They control the EU. Juncker and Tusk won't want to give anything as the EU is their bread and butter- not to mention a thick layer of jam. Ireland won't move to help us, nor will Spain. The Labour party (and possibly Lib Dem and Scot Nats) will support this - as will some Tories - it is the most likely outcome - despite May having rejected it. Parliament would be unlikely to go this way (at this stage) as even they have some grudging respect for the referendum outcome. So, no 3 is (in my view) the most likely now. This would be carried out by whoever is PM, be it May, a.n. other Tory, or Corbyn. Absolutely key to a second referendum is what is the question. My guess is that it will be "Do you want"; To leave the EU with no deal (hard brexit) To leave the EU with the May deal To remain within the EU under the old pre referendum terms This will split the leave vote enough to enable remain to win. Brexit will not happen. We will have achieved nothing other than a massive division in the country and the EU will come out stronger with us weaker. Why - because ALL of our parties have played internal bickering and party political games rather have served the national interest. If the question was a simple (a) or (b), then leave might well win, but you can bet that won't be the question - and it will be a 3 way to split the leave vote. Nailed it, the crux is, it would appear democracy will be subverted regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panoma1 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Rumour is May could postpone Tuesdays " meaningful" vote....and go back to EU for a better deal? This tactic, if it happens? Has a ring of possibility about it! A local Government tactic is to tell the public, council tax will have to rise by for example 12% this year......cue panic, shock horror!........then nearer the date they say "we have found some savings elsewhere! And it only needs to go up 6%" after all! Everyone breathes a huge sigh of relief! And no one objects to the 6% rise!.................The council tax payers have been royally conned!......6% is likely what the council wanted to charge all the time!......The 12% was a scare tactic to soften the taxpayer up! May comes back with a slightly improved deal..........and everyone falls over themselves to agree it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 12gauge82 said: Nailed it, the crux is, it would appear democracy will be subverted regardless of what happens. "Why - because ALL of our parties have played internal bickering (mainly Tories) and party political games (mainly Labour) rather have served the national interest." Fact is, Tories and Labour both said they would respect the referendum outcome. Neither actually has. One has completely failed in internal discipline, the other has decided to can Brexit to make an attempt at power (and they must know that Europe would give them no more than they have given May. Labour has aleardy said they would only accept a continuation of the single market and customs union that have 'exactly the same benefits as we have now'. That is Brexit in name only. 1 minute ago, panoma1 said: Rumour is May could postpone Tuesdays " meaningful" vote....and go back to EU for a better deal? This tactic, if it happens? Has a ring of possibility about it! A local Government tactic is to tell the public, council tax will have to rise by for example 12% this year......cue panic, shock horror!........then nearer the date they say "we have found some savings elsewhere! And it only needs to go up 6%" after all! Everyone breathes a huge sigh of relief! And no one objects to the 6% rise!.................The council tax payers have been royally conned!......6% is likely what the council wanted to charge all the time!......The 12% was a scare tactic to soften the taxpayer up! May comes back with a slightly improved deal..........and everyone falls over themselves to agree it? It's a possibility, but I don't think Europe will give any ground; why should they - when they are winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panoma1 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: "Why - because ALL of our parties have played internal bickering (mainly Tories) and party political games (mainly Labour) rather have served the national interest." Fact is, Tories and Labour both said they would respect the referendum outcome. Neither actually has. One has completely failed in internal discipline, the other has decided to can Brexit to make an attempt at power (and they must know that Europe would give them no more than they have given May. Labour has aleardy said they would only accept a continuation of the single market and customs union that have 'exactly the same benefits as we have now'. That is Brexit in name only. It's a possibility, but I don't think Europe will give any ground; why should they - when they are winning. Fear of a no deal Brexit?..........They then lose most if not all their advantage! But it ain't beyond the realms of possibility that the EU are complicit in this possible tactical merry go round! Edited December 3, 2018 by panoma1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, panoma1 said: Fear of a no deal Brexit?..........They then lose most if not all their advantage! They know that Parliament would never pass a 'no deal' brexit. Some Tories and possibly a very few labour would support it. None of the others - and quite a few Tories wouldn't. It would never get a majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, panoma1 said: Fear of a no deal Brexit?..........They then lose most if not all their advantage! Bottom line is that there was never a majority in Parliament for leaving, so they won't allow it. Remember the hanging debate? CLEAR majority in the country (then anyway) to bring it back, but it never happened because Parliament didn't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panoma1 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: They know that Parliament would never pass a 'no deal' brexit. Some Tories and possibly a very few labour would support it. None of the others - and quite a few Tories wouldn't. It would never get a majority. Why should they be given a vote? The meaningful vote was on the terms of Brexit......not on Brexit! That we will leave the EU was decided by the referendum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, panoma1 said: Why should they be given a vote? The meaningful vote was on the terms of Brexit......not on Brexit! That we will leave the EU was decided by the referendum! I had initially thought that no further vote was needed for a 'no deal' in that they have already agreed to leave by triggering Article 50. However many say that a vote on whatever we do will be needed; see here https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-and-brexit-deal I can't answer what the true answer is, but it does seem to me that probably a bill to be passed to leave with no deal, a therefore vote would be needed. I do not believe Parliamet (stuffed with those who oppose no deal) would pass that. The Gina Miller intervention didn't help as it deemed that Parliament must have a 'final' say (on triggering Article 50). There is quite a lot (that I don't pretend to understand) here https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2017/10/16/can-parliament-block-a-no-deal-brexit/ https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/08/no-deal-brexit-stop-mps-revolt-election-second-referendum These are beyond my knowledge to know how much is truth and how much is smoke and mirrors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panoma1 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: I had initially thought that no further vote was needed for a 'no deal' in that they have already agreed to leave by triggering Article 50. However many say that a vote on whatever we do will be needed; see here https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-and-brexit-deal I can't answer what the true answer is, but it does seem to me that probably a bill to be passed to leave with no deal, a therefore vote would be needed. I do not believe Parliamet (stuffed with those who oppose no deal) would pass that. The Gina Miller intervention didn't help as it deemed that Parliament must have a 'final' say (on triggering Article 50). There is quite a lot (that I don't pretend to understand) here https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2017/10/16/can-parliament-block-a-no-deal-brexit/ https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/08/no-deal-brexit-stop-mps-revolt-election-second-referendum These are beyond my knowledge to know how much is truth and how much is smoke and mirrors Well I think the parties will have to argue all this out....because there is no precedent, and as you say the smoke and mirrors make it as clear as mud!.........it all depends on the interpretation the Government wish to pursue! Which will be determined by where they want to end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, panoma1 said: Which will be determined by where they want to end up? I am very much afraid that is just what will happen .......... and we will in effect never leave. Europe has too much power ........ May went to the country to give herself a decent majority to fight this from a stronger position. She fought badly on a dreadful manifesto ........ Corbyn told a pack of lies - which were swallowed hook, line and sinker by the gullible masses (he never expected to have to fulfil his promises anyway as he didn't expect to win, so he could promise what he like without much worry of being caught out). Net result - weak May government = weak negotiating position = weak deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriBsa Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: Net result - weak May government = weak negotiating position = weak deal. Even if the General Election had returned a 200 seat majority, I don't think May's negotiating tactic of caving in to every EU demand would have changed. Few of the new Conservative Central Office approved PC candidates would have been pro Brexit anyway. Regardless of supposed political power in parliament our negotiating position always was strong. In short they needed us more than we need them. We buy more from them than they do from us. Unfortunately through political design (remainism) and a lack of nous and intellect we surrendered even before day one of negotations started. Edited December 3, 2018 by TriBsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-G Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: I am very much afraid that is just what will happen .......... and we will in effect never leave. Europe has too much power ........ May went to the country to give herself a decent majority to fight this from a stronger position. She fought badly on a dreadful manifesto ........ Corbyn told a pack of lies - which were swallowed hook, line and sinker by the gullible masses (he never expected to have to fulfil his promises anyway as he didn't expect to win, so he could promise what he like without much worry of being caught out). Net result - weak May government = weak negotiating position = weak deal. Sums it up rather well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Whats so wrong with a hard Brexit? Its what we voted for and its streets ahead of anything else on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said: "Why - because ALL of our parties have played internal bickering (mainly Tories) and party political games (mainly Labour) rather have served the national interest." Fact is, Tories and Labour both said they would respect the referendum outcome. Neither actually has. One has completely failed in internal discipline, the other has decided to can Brexit to make an attempt at power (and they must know that Europe would give them no more than they have given May. Labour has aleardy said they would only accept a continuation of the single market and customs union that have 'exactly the same benefits as we have now'. That is Brexit in name only. It's a possibility, but I don't think Europe will give any ground; why should they - when they are winning. Not arguing with that, spot on again. 2 minutes ago, Vince Green said: Whats so wrong with a hard Brexit? Its what we voted for and its streets ahead of anything else on the table. +1 it's what was voted for if the EU wouldn't give us a free trade deal, which is what has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yod dropper Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 15 hours ago, oowee said: ... there is only one party that got us into this mess, with the support of 17 million voters. ... No. A cultural system whereby debate around some issues were suppressed. A political class who were and are largely unrepresentative of the people pre and post referendum. Significant and powerful people who would not accept the result of the referendum. A significant and vocal part of the electorate who would not accept the result of the referendum. UK politicians briefing against the government in Brussels. Two years spent debating the result of the referendum. Two years spent trying to overturn the result of the referendum. Two years weakening our hand and not ever trying to implement the result of the referendum. The same party 'got us into this mess' and I suspect many of the same voters, people who when they were young voted to join the Common Market but now they are older and wiser voted the leave the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old man Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 hours ago, oowee said: What difference would a new leader make? Same as a general election I can't see it sorting anything. Happy to be shot down in flames but my prediction for now is; If May's plan does not go through then we start planning and bracing for a no deal, putting in place the contingencies we need. Then out for an election no majority so coalition agrees May type deal version 2? Or we get a time extension and ............................... There will be no second deal as Tusk has already declared. We seem to have been led up another blind alley to our detriment once more. To have had our politicians to have made a decision in the interest of the country would have been a first, always bickering, destroying what others have done and putting self interest first being their motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old man Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 11 hours ago, 12gauge82 said: Nailed it, the crux is, it would appear democracy will be subverted regardless of what happens. Someone, I can't recollect who, indicated that the fall of democracy was always followed by the rise a dictator ship? Well we are certainly seeing that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old man Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Breaking news. The EU court has said we can legally forget Brexit and France forgetting about fuel tax rises. What la la land they live in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danllan Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 (edited) Hmm... I am brand new on this forum, being a regular on The Farming Forum, but have come over here for some advice*. Imagine my surprise and 'delight' 🙄 to find a Brexit thread over here too; bl**dy hell, I thought we farmers had the monopoly on arguing amongst ourselves, but I was wrong. Looking at the comments I'd be surprised if there aren't a few lurking on here from TFF, on both sides of the argument, but with different avatars - mine is the same, and I'm pro-Brexit, but I'm deep enough in discussions over there to want to avoid putting anyone's back up over here - plus it takes up too much time... Just out of interest, and this is apolitical, has anyone stormed off in a sulk from here? We have had a couple do that, which is remarkable when you think about it. Regards to all. * Not about Brexit Edited December 4, 2018 by Danllan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRDS Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 hours ago, JohnfromUK said: I am very much afraid that is just what will happen .......... and we will in effect never leave. Europe has too much power ........ May went to the country to give herself a decent majority to fight this from a stronger position. She fought badly on a dreadful manifesto ........ Corbyn told a pack of lies - which were swallowed hook, line and sinker by the gullible masses (he never expected to have to fulfil his promises anyway as he didn't expect to win, so he could promise what he like without much worry of being caught out). Net result - weak May government = weak negotiating position = weak deal. May threw the Election so we are where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyefor Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Danllan said: Looking at the comments I'd be surprised if there aren't a few lurking on here from TFF, on both sides of the argument, but with different avatars...... Just out of interest, and this is apolitical, has anyone stormed off in a sulk from here? A. Self confessed TFF lurker (same Avatar). B. Many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, Danllan said: Hmm... I am brand new on this forum, being a regular on The Farming Forum, but have come over here for some advice*. Imagine my surprise and 'delight' 🙄 to find a Brexit thread over here too; bl**dy hell, I thought we farmers had the monopoly on arguing amongst ourselves, but I was wrong. Looking at the comments I'd be surprised if there aren't a few lurking on here from TFF, on both sides of the argument, but with different avatars - mine is the same, and I'm pro-Brexit, but I'm deep enough in discussions over there to want to avoid putting anyone's back up over here - plus it takes up too much time... Just out of interest, and this is apolitical, has anyone stormed off in a sulk from here? We have had a couple do that, which is remarkable when you think about it. Regards to all. * Not about Brexit Is that why you're here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 29 minutes ago, Danllan said: Hmm... I am brand new on this forum, Firstly - welcome. I am here and one or two other shooting related forums (both USA based), and a horological forum - all under the same 'name'. None under different names. For the topic (as I have stated in other posts), I voted remain, though didn't feel all that strongly about it. Since the referendum, I support carrying through the referendum outcome, so I have swapped camps to leave, because I believe that is democracy - and I'm a democrat (with a small D). 35 minutes ago, Danllan said: Just out of interest, and this is apolitical, has anyone stormed off in a sulk from here? I'm sure they have. I have had robust discussions on here with some, but that is the nature of forums. I never intend to give offence or make anything personal, and I have (to date anyway) not taken offence - or had anyone deliberately try to offend me on a personal basis ....... but robust and sensible argument is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yod dropper Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 hours ago, Vince Green said: Whats so wrong with a hard Brexit? Its what we voted for and its streets ahead of anything else on the table. It is what we voted for. Cameron made it clear, the lead Brexit camp made it clear, what they were saying was consistent with it. May & co. have recently been talking about satisfying both the 52 and the 48, not what we were told would happen and we all know if the vote were reversed we wouldn't have left a bit to keep the leavers happy. They still hold us in contempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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