Brexit - merged threads

[timmytree]

Just now, old man said:

They have it already, May gave it all Away?

When voting tonight in camera the honourable members could well suffer from amnesia?

True, they usually turn around and protect their own jobs. Drop the "honourable" bit please. Not much honour amongst that lot.

[motty]

On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 12:07, Danger-Mouse said:

A different view of the Brixit march and counter march.

 

Owen Jones is a complete ******!

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, Retsdon said:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en

The EU has got its ducks lined up for a no deal Brexit even if HMG hasn't.

For the sake of the UK, I really hope your right.

1 hour ago, Retsdon said:

Nothing is certain in this life, but my prediction is that May will win tonight's confidence vote by a convincing margin and carry on. There will be some humphing and moaning, but eventually she will also get Parliament to endorse her deal. 

I fear this is probably what will happen to.

[Rewulf]

2 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Nothing is certain in this life, but my prediction is that May will win tonight's confidence vote by a convincing margin and carry on. There will be some humphing and moaning, but eventually she will also get Parliament to endorse her deal. 

She might win .

It won't be a large majority it she does. I think either way will be close.

But there's no way that deals going through parliament, end of.

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

She might win .

It won't be a large majority it she does. I think either way will be close.

I think from what I read in the papers/hear on the radio - she probably will win by a small margin.  Everything in the country, parliament/both significant political parties is well split .

[chrisjpainter]

May wins the vote of No confidence:

200 - 117 in favour of May

[martyn2233]

1 minute ago, chrisjpainter said:

May wins the vote of No confidence:

200 - 117 in favour of May

Can they have another vote as I don’t like the vote 

[chrisjpainter]

1 minute ago, martyn2233 said:

Can they have another vote as I don’t like the vote 

Yes, they can!

In a year's time.

[matone]

40 minutes ago, martyn2233 said:

Can they have another vote as I don’t like the vote 

...what`s good for the goose........perhaps they didn`t understand what they were voting for either ...

[12gauge82]

9 minutes ago, matone said:

...what`s good for the goose........perhaps they didn`t understand what they were voting for either ...

It was the uneducated racist ones that voted for her.

[ShootingEgg]

As jrm said, majority on in favour are on her payroll, so would of lost jobs if voted against. 

[Retsdon]

4 hours ago, ShootingEgg said:

As jrm said, majority on in favour are on her payroll, so would of lost jobs if voted against. 

Hmmmn. Is that the best excuse he can come up with? No, the fact is that flawed or not, May's deal is the only game in town, and whether people like it or not has zero bearing on that reality. May won because the majority of Tory MPs (and opposition ones too come to that) are beginning to wake up and smell the coffee. 

The only bright spot in all this is that perhaps, finally, posturers like BoJo and JRM will go back into the wings and stay there.

[old man]

12 hours ago, timmytree said:

True, they usually turn around and protect their own jobs. Drop the "honourable" bit please. Not much honour amongst that lot.

Apologies Tim. I was really carried away then to when honourable meant something.

[silver pigeon69]

2 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Hmmmn. Is that the best excuse he can come up with? No, the fact is that flawed or not, May's deal is the only game in town, and whether people like it or not has zero bearing on that reality. May won because the majority of Tory MPs (and opposition ones too come to that) are beginning to wake up and smell the coffee. 

The only bright spot in all this is that perhaps, finally, posturers like BoJo and JRM will go back into the wings and stay there.

Its not the only deal! There is "The Deal" as you put it (although i wouldn't call it a deal, far from it) and Hard Brexit. 

Edited December 13, 2018 by silver pigeon69

[TIGHTCHOKE]

I wonder if this vote of confidence in the PM will actually give her any leverage to get a better deal from the EU?

I seriously doubt it will.

[JRDS]

To see all the traitors cheering at the vote supporting the person trying to give the country away was the most sickening sight I have ever seen in Politics.  I will never vote Tory again in my life whatever the outcome of this debacle.

[JohnfromUK]

The leadership contest rules only allow one challenge before there has to be a 12 month 'gap'.  Those who wanted May out (something I agree was desirable) tried a few weeks ago and failed to get the '48 letters'  This time they got the 48 letters, but completely blew that opportunity.    She is still there - and by a 2:1 majority - which may say something about their (lack of) political skills/competence.  What she has managed to do is to stop party leadership challenges for 12 months.

I am not sure if she got lucky, or was politically skilful ........ but I have to say that the number of things she seems to have wriggled out of is beginning to look like more than just good luck.

The real issue is unchanged - she cannot get her deal as it stands now through Parliament, and the EU are (apparently) refusing to change it.  Perhaps her current plan is to use the threat of a 'no deal' as a way of getting a better deal.  In an interview this morning a Polish politician was saying that for the EU, a bad deal was still better than a 'no deal' - so perhaps they may move?

I still cannot get a straight answer as to whether a 'no deal' can occur under the present article 50 as passed by Parliament.

• Some say - no further Parliamentary action is needed and it will happen automatically on 29th March if there is nothing else
• Others say Parliament would have to approve it
• Others still say they will debate and amend the article 50 to prevent a 'no deal' and they can get a debate and get a majority for taking no deal off the table with Corbyn, SNP, Lib Dem support and that the speaker (known to be biased) will allow the debate.

So - I am none the wiser as to what will happen, but one of the options (remove May) seems to have been used up with no useful outcome.

Edited December 13, 2018 by JohnfromUK

[JRDS]

The deal was something invented by Remoaners to keep us tied to the EU, the default position as was voted for is Leave (with no Deal) which can't be voted on despite what the house full of Traitors desire they can only vote for an alternative option probably another go at a vote!!

[panoma1]

1 minute ago, JRDS said:

The deal was something invented by Remoaners to keep us tied to the EU, the default position as was voted for is Leave (with no Deal) which can't be voted on despite what the house full of Traitors desire they can only vote for an alternative option probably another go at a vote!!

I agree! Nice to go amicably...but if the EU ain't playing.....there is nowt we can do about it, we have served them notice we are leaving, unless the politicians rob the country's electorate of their decision, come March we are leaving!

[chrisjpainter]

11 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I still cannot get a straight answer as to whether a 'no deal' can occur under the present article 50 as passed by Parliament.

• Some say - no further Parliamentary action is needed and it will happen automatically on 29th March if there is nothing else
• Others say Parliament would have to approve it
• Others still say they will debate and amend the article 50 to prevent a 'no deal' and they can get a debate and get a majority for taking no deal off the table with Corbyn, SNP, Lib Dem support and that the speaker (known to be biased) will allow the debate.

but one of the options (remove May) seems to have been used up with no useful outcome.

Your first option is the correct one. Once Article 50 is triggered, the bomb's ticking. No amount of painting the bomb, putting it in another place, or taking the outer shell off will stop the bomb going off! Parliament doesn't have to approve a No Deal Brexit; it'll just happen automatically and cause absolute chaos (at borders and in the markets) immediately, although that would settle down as time went on. Right now, one of four things can happen:

1. A deal is reached, we leave on the 29th
2. No deal is reached and we leave on the 29th - the 'falling off the cliff' as was mentioned so much in the early days of Brexit!
3. Both the EU and the UK agree to delay - but both sides have to agree to that; the default for the bomb is the 29th
4. The UK cancels Brexit, the bomb's defused and half the country goes apoplectic with rage.  

1 of those 4 things will happen. In the even of no agreement with the EU, Brexit by Default will happen on the 29th

You say one one of those things is off the table, it kind of is, but not completely! the Tories can't oust May as their leader for another year, but Parliament could launch a vote of no confidence. If all the anti-Mayers across the parties allied, a vote of no confidence could be forced and if May lost it, there'd have to be an immediate general election. 

[chrisjpainter]

1 minute ago, panoma1 said:

I agree! Nice to go amicably...but if the EU ain't playing.....there is nowt we can do about it, we have served them notice we are leaving, unless the politicians rob the country's electorate of their decision, come March we are leaving!

unless the electorate's given an in/out/deal referendum and remain wins, then the people will have spoken. Again. If the majority wanted to stay - even when a softer Bexit option is on the table - It wouldn't be Parliament robbing anyone of their decision. It'd just be doing what the majority of people wanted at the time. 

[scouser]

The way this shambles is going, it’s going to be a another vote with Mays deal or staying in, as said in the O.P. looks like where shafted,

[JRDS]

7 minutes ago, chrisjpainter said:

unless the electorate's given an in/out/deal referendum and remain wins, then the people will have spoken. Again. If the majority wanted to stay - even when a softer Bexit option is on the table - It wouldn't be Parliament robbing anyone of their decision. It'd just be doing what the majority of people wanted at the time.  

We have already had the once in a generation vote and Parliament are very plainly failing wilfully to enact it.  The vast majority of both Houses are Traitors.

[chrisjpainter]

2 minutes ago, scouser said:

The way this shambles is going, it’s going to be a another vote with Mays deal or staying in, as said in the O.P. looks like where shafted,

Would a hard Brexiteer really vote with Remain, even if they hate the deal? I'm (still) a Remainer, but is this deal with the EU so hated that it'd be preferable to be in the EU? genuine question!

I'm also not sure the majority of Leavers want a hard brexit. From a Leaver's point of view, wouldn't a two-way split be better than a three way split? The maths would surely work out more favourably for Leavers.

If there was a referendum, it seems we'd have three possible questions:

In vs Hard Brexit vs Deal Brexit

In vs Deal Brexit

In vs Hard Brexit.

For Leavers, surely the best possible options is In vs Deal, as that'd be the easiest to win? 

3 minutes ago, JRDS said:

We have already had the once in a generation vote and Parliament are very plainly failing wilfully to enact it.  The vast majority of both Houses are Traitors.

Yeah but it's the prerogative of the next PM to break the promises of the previous one! And since when has a firm promise been worth anything in Parliament until it's law! I do agree with you, at the moment, however. My argument has always been that there should be a second referendum only if there's overwhelming public demand for it and it's clear the will of the people has changed. I don't think we've got there though; the electorate's basically as divided as Parliament, so the only thing to fall back on is the original vote.

[JohnfromUK]

22 minutes ago, chrisjpainter said:

You say one one of those things is off the table, it kind of is, but not completely! the Tories can't oust May as their leader for another year, but Parliament could launch a vote of no confidence. If all the anti-Mayers across the parties allied, a vote of no confidence could be forced and if May lost it, there'd have to be an immediate general election.

That is true, though the DUP might not risk a Labour (with their IRA past sympathies) government.  

Who wins a general election?  Really 4 possibles;

• Tory majority, May remains, situation as now (though she might be a bit stronger)  - Unlikely to get enough seats
• Labour majority, Corbyn government.  Likely a very soft Brexit or Brexit In Name Only (BRINO) - Unlikely to get enough seats
• Tory minority, - much as now - Brexit situation much as now - One of two most likely outcomes
• Labour minority.  Propped up by SNP and possibly LibDems.  Any Brexit at all unlikely given SNP and LibDem positions - or at most BRINO - The other of two most likely outcomes

So of the two likely options - we have 'situation as now' or No Brexit/BRINO - and of the two less likely outcomes - 'situation as now' or very soft Brexit under Labour.  The real problem is that there will NOT BE any Parliamentary majority for a hard Brexit.