Brexit - merged threads

[oowee]

1 hour ago, McSpredder said:

Figures from the Office for National Statistics indicate that the UK population is NOT declining.   

1975     56.2 million
1985     56.5 million
1995     58.0 million
2005     60.4 million
2015     65.1 million
2025     69.4 million (projected)
2035     73.0 million (projected)
2045     76.0 million (projected)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/mar2017

 

 

My apologies you are of course right in numerical terms. It would be more accurate to describe the population as declining by age rather than in decline. There are more living longer supported by relatively less (numerically the same) of working age. In 1971 there was 14% of the population over 65 and this is projected to be 25% by 2045. The point being the same that we do not have enough people of working age to support those over 65. So whilst the number of people is growing the structure of the population is ageing. Another way around it is to move the age of retirement even more. 

58 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

oowee has never been one to let facts cloud the issue.

Another valued contribution 👍

Edited February 21, 2019 by oowee

[pinfireman]

7 hours ago, Good shot? said:

I fail to understand where you got lost.

The point that is being lost is the word ‘free’ in movement of people so as not to be classed racist which is being used against leavers regularly.

Immigration is only beneficial if we choose who can enter the country, from wherever they originate and dependant on UK needs at the time.

immigration should be limited by our needs assuming we have our own skills training in place and the resources and infrastructure to cope with any influx.

CORRECT!

[pinfireman]

6 hours ago, oowee said:

I can't respond to individual comments but migration brings huge benefits to the UK. We have a declining population and we need someone to pay our pensions. We either get more efficient or we get more people to pay. Migrants that come to earn pay tax and then go are the holy grail of contributors. EU migrants by their nature are the most likely to pay more than they cost. They are the most likely to return before retirement. Exactly what we want. 

I agree it would be better if we could select those that we want, however a scheme like that has to be even handed and will by it's application result in more third world migrants. They are less likely to return, more likely to have a larger dependency base (larger family group) and subsequently cost more. We also have the issue of how to fill those jobs such as care workers where workers might be defined by aptitude rather than paper qualifications. 

I do not see how the UK can continue with it's bloated dependency culture, too many pensioners getting too much pension, supported by too few workers working inefficiently. Something has to give.

I can hear the ideas of getting the unemployed back to work, upskilling, reducing benefits, etc etc but we have had at least 50 years since the 60's to get a grip and we have so far failed. I suspect the more likely scenario is we see effective economic contraction and a gradual erosion of benefits (including pensions and living standards) as we seek to plug the holes in our social welfare bill (including the NHS). 

To my mind the management of migration like education is a bigger than Brexit issue that like many of the thornier issues, faced by a first past the post system of government, is easier to ignore than to tackle. 

" can hear the ideas of getting the unemployed back to work, upskilling, reducing benefits, etc etc but we have had at least 50 years since the 60's to get a grip and we have so far failed. I suspect the more likely scenario is we see effective economic contraction and a gradual erosion of benefits (including pensions and living standards) as we seek to plug the holes in our social welfare bill (including the NHS). "

50 wasted years! Being voluntarily unemployed is NOT a right!  The reasons we have 2 million long term unemployed, a. we cannot forcibly make people take a job, due to the unions and Labour , as they see these people as their core voters.  b. Business does not want to pay for training, as they did prior to the 70;s.   c.it,s easier and cheaper for business to employ cheap labour in the form of migrants! Offer 3 jobs, and if they are refused, cut benefit by 50%. Offer another 3, and if refused, cut benefit out! That,s the answer, but no Party will bite the nettle! When we trained our own people, we had one of the best workforces in the world! Bring back technical colleges, scrap  useless university courses that lead to nowhere except stacking Tesco shelves.

6 hours ago, oowee said:

+1  we know it but it's hard to see how we can solve the issue and not be seen to be discriminating. Rather than look at skills it would be better to say you can come f you have a job, you have to work as no benefits will be payable and minimal health care available for x years. After y time when you have demonstrated your net contribution your work visa can be swapped for residency? 

There is a saying that he who does not take from his employer takes from his family. 

one worker arrives, then his family, and their family etc etc...and they all require education, NHS, accomodation et etc. Never ending stream!

[pinfireman]

5 hours ago, panoma1 said:

Whilst out and about I had a mooch around a local charity shop, already in there were three women, two older fifties/sixties and one in her twenties, all dressed like gypsies, a pre teen girl pushing a child in a pushchair, a toddler and a bloke in his twenties too! The three older women were blatently stealing clothes by trying stuff on and putting their own clothes over the top of them! Christ knows what other criminal acts they are/would perpetrating/perpetrate....the seven were unlikely to be in employment as this was 11.30 am............Where are they getting the money from in order to survive? No prizes for guessing!

This is the sort of criminal scum that we need our government to prevent entering the UK?

This is widespread! Police no longer bother prosecuting them! When the SE European countries ( Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia) joined the EU, a moratorium on free movement by their citizens was taken by the existing EU countries, apart from Ireland, and (Yes, you,ved guessed it!) UK! Blair said it was not necessary, as he only expected 10,000 to turn up......................we have 30,000 in South Yorkshire, and, apart from a handful washing cars, and delivering pizzas, the others have no noticeable gainful employment! Most of the families have 3 or more children..............

[TIGHTCHOKE]

5 hours ago, pinfireman said:

This is widespread! Police no longer bother prosecuting them! When the SE European countries ( Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia) joined the EU, a moratorium on free movement by their citizens was taken by the existing EU countries, apart from Ireland, and (Yes, you,ved guessed it!) UK! Blair said it was not necessary, as he only expected 10,000 to turn up......................we have 30,000 in South Yorkshire, and, apart from a handful washing cars, and delivering pizzas, the others have no noticeable gainful employment! Most of the families have 3 or more children..............

Just the same as the few Poles he expected!

The damned man is not capable of telling the truth as he regularly demonstrated!

[Gordon R]

Quote

Another valued contribution 👍

My short post contained more sense than all your posts put together. You make baseless assumptions at the drop of a hat and present them as facts. It is delusional.

[Vince Green]

13 hours ago, panoma1 said:

This is the sort of criminal scum that we need our government to prevent entering the UK?

Where I live in NW London there is an epidemic of aggravated burglaries and car break ins involving Eastern Europeans.(allegedly Romanian and Bulgarian) The neighbourhood watch website is overflowing with reports and its endless.

The police advice is don't confront them! and it appears the police are following their own advice to the letter. 

This is the day to day reality of free movement

[oowee]

9 hours ago, pinfireman said:

This is widespread! Police no longer bother prosecuting them! When the SE European countries ( Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia) joined the EU, a moratorium on free movement by their citizens was taken by the existing EU countries, apart from Ireland, and (Yes, you,ved guessed it!) UK! Blair said it was not necessary, as he only expected 10,000 to turn up......................we have 30,000 in South Yorkshire, and, apart from a handful washing cars, and delivering pizzas, the others have no noticeable gainful employment! Most of the families have 3 or more children..............

I don't want to go over all of this again but I can see that, if your account is accurate, for some reason South Yorkshire seems to attract the least productive in society. Not only is unemployment in Yorkshire above average but its behind that of the North West, East Midlands and Scotland. Given the data clearly shows that. overall migrants make a valued contribution to the UK economy and are net tax contributors, you have to wonder what attracts the ones that do not want to work to South Yorkshire.

Fortunately (if my maths is correct) with a population of 1.4m the 30000 migrants represents only 2% of the population, compared to an average of 6% for the rest of the country it looks like most of the migrants have sussed the place out in advance, as one to avoid.  

[Rewulf]

5 minutes ago, oowee said:

Given the data clearly shows that. overall migrants make a valued contribution to the UK economy and are net tax contributors,

Do you have a link to this data ?

7 minutes ago, oowee said:

with a population of 1.4m the 30000 migrants represents only 2% of the population

A link to this information would be good too.

[oowee]

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

Do you have a link to this data ?

I am sure you can find it. Around October last year if my memory is correct. 

 

[Rewulf]

Just now, oowee said:

I am sure you can find it. Around October last year if my memory is correct. 

 

I want to see the link you saw please.

[oowee]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I want to see the link you saw please.

This will point you in the right direction with links to a variety of studies. https://fullfact.org/immigration/how-immigrants-affect-public-finances/ 

[Rewulf]

Was it something like this one ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-workers-uk-tax-treasury-brexit-migrants-british-citizens-a8542506.html

Using data provided by Oxford economics, a well respected independent analysis company.
Which claims that on average EU migrants contribute £2300 more to the exchequer than the average UK citizen.
Interesting points indeed, and a very shocking stat.

Just now, oowee said:

This will point you in the right direction with links to a variety of studies. https://fullfact.org/immigration/how-immigrants-affect-public-finances/ 

Aaah Full Fact, that other well known 'independent' fat checker, a bit like Snopes.
Which states quite clearly that 

There is no single "correct" estimate of this impact. Results of existing studies all depend on the methodology and the assumptions researchers must make (for example, about whether to include the costs of educating UK-born children of immigrants)

Yet Oxford Economics are quite happy to put a very exact figure on it ?

Full fact then very cleverly then use HO data from 1999-2000 to gauge how migration has affected the UK and what it 'might' cost?
They do know that mass EU migration didnt even start till the early 2000s right ?

Attempts at quantifying the fiscal impact of immigration in the UK started in the late 1990s with a Home Office report. The report found that for the fiscal year 1999-2000 (that is, April 1999 to March 2000) UK immigrants contributed £31.2 billion in taxes and used benefits and state services valued at £28.8 billion. In other words, the net fiscal contribution of immigrants, taken together, was approximately +£2.5 billion in 1999-2000.

Sounds good doesnt it ? More migrants = more money in taxes.
So bearing in mind that NET yearly migration has DOUBLED since then , we should be absolutely rolling in money ?!

But its not is it?
Instead the NHS bill has TRIPLED since 2000, and the benefits bill has DOUBLED, and both care systems are groaning in protest and in some cases on the verge of collapse because ?
They need more money.

But its got nothing to do with those 5 million migrants I suppose, using those services and claiming those benefits ?

Full facts figures speak for themselves really.

 

 

[pinfireman]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

I don't want to go over all of this again but I can see that, if your account is accurate, for some reason South Yorkshire seems to attract the least productive in society. Not only is unemployment in Yorkshire above average but its behind that of the North West, East Midlands and Scotland. Given the data clearly shows that. overall migrants make a valued contribution to the UK economy and are net tax contributors, you have to wonder what attracts the ones that do not want to work to South Yorkshire.

Fortunately (if my maths is correct) with a population of 1.4m the 30000 migrants represents only 2% of the population, compared to an average of 6% for the rest of the country it looks like most of the migrants have sussed the place out in advance, as one to avoid.  

The Romainian/Slovakian  population might just be 2%, but you have conveniently left out ALL the other migrants here, both from within, and outside the EU !Multiply by at least 5, and you might get near the actual figure. And this does not include all those who have come here since the partition of India in 1948. 

As for statistics,  was it not Disraeli who said that there were 3 kinds of lies, "lies, damned lies, and statistics!! ?

7 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Just the same as the few Poles he expected!

The damned man is not capable of telling the truth as he regularly demonstrated!

and the Ukrainians, Latvians, Lithuanians,, Estonians, Czechs, Serbs, Kosovans....and that,s just the European ones!

[pinfireman]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

This will point you in the right direction with links to a variety of studies. https://fullfact.org/immigration/how-immigrants-affect-public-finances/ 

A government  endorsed site? We all know how honest and above board they are.................not!

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Your quote is normally credited to Disraeli via Mark Twain!

[pinfireman]

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Was it something like this one ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-workers-uk-tax-treasury-brexit-migrants-british-citizens-a8542506.html

Using data provided by Oxford economics, a well respected independent analysis company.
Which claims that on average EU migrants contribute £2300 more to the exchequer than the average UK citizen.
Interesting points indeed, and a very shocking stat.

Aaah Full Fact, that other well known 'independent' fat checker, a bit like Snopes.
Which states quite clearly that 

There is no single "correct" estimate of this impact. Results of existing studies all depend on the methodology and the assumptions researchers must make (for example, about whether to include the costs of educating UK-born children of immigrants)

Yet Oxford Economics are quite happy to put a very exact figure on it ?

Full fact then very cleverly then use HO data from 1999-2000 to gauge how migration has affected the UK and what it 'might' cost?
They do know that mass EU migration didnt even start till the early 2000s right ?

Attempts at quantifying the fiscal impact of immigration in the UK started in the late 1990s with a Home Office report. The report found that for the fiscal year 1999-2000 (that is, April 1999 to March 2000) UK immigrants contributed £31.2 billion in taxes and used benefits and state services valued at £28.8 billion. In other words, the net fiscal contribution of immigrants, taken together, was approximately +£2.5 billion in 1999-2000.

Sounds good doesnt it ? More migrants = more money in taxes.
So bearing in mind that NET yearly migration has DOUBLED since then , we should be absolutely rolling in money ?!

But its not is it?
Instead the NHS bill has TRIPLED since 2000, and the benefits bill has DOUBLED, and both care systems are groaning in protest and in some cases on the verge of collapse because ?
They need more money.

But its got nothing to do with those 5 million migrants I suppose, using those services and claiming those benefits ?

Full facts figures speak for themselves really.

 

 

And as we know Rewulf, there are 3 kinds of untruths...."lies, damned lies, and statistics!  All these figures are massively out of date!  It,s easy for someone living in the idyllic Somerset  countryside to pontificate on immigration.....

3 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Your quote is normally credited to Disraeli via Mark Twain!

I left Mark out of it.... he,s a Yank!  Got to give some British politicians a little credit!

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

The Romainian/Slovakian  population might just be 2%, but you have conveniently left out ALL the other migrants here, both from within, and outside the EU !Multiply by at least 5, and you might get near the actual figure. And this does not include all those who have come here since the partition of India in 1948. 

As for statistics,  was it not Disraeli who said that there were 3 kinds of lies, "lies, damned lies, and statistics!! ?

and the Ukrainians, Latvians, Lithuanians,, Estonians, Czechs, Serbs, Kosovans....and that,s just the European ones!

A couple of links here , first one for Sheffield https://www.migrationyorkshire.org.uk/userfiles/file/PolicyandResearch/statistics/newcomers/MY-Sheffield-newcomers-2016.pdf

And Doncaster https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/number-of-eu-citizens-living-in-doncaster-has-risen-by-7-000-since-brexit-figures-reveal-1-9482238

So this figure of 30,000 in the whole of South  Yorkshire really doesnt hold any water if theres over 20,000 just in Doncaster ,and rising, and net migration in Sheffield, on top of the ones already there, goes up by at least 5,000 a year.

3 hours ago, oowee said:

Fortunately (if my maths is correct) with a population of 1.4m the 30000 migrants represents only 2% of the population, compared to an average of 6% for the rest of the country it looks like most of the migrants have sussed the place out in advance, as one to avoid.  

Which is why I asked where these figures came from, as they are obviously completely inaccurate.

[pinfireman]

Just now, Rewulf said:

A couple of links here , first one for Sheffield https://www.migrationyorkshire.org.uk/userfiles/file/PolicyandResearch/statistics/newcomers/MY-Sheffield-newcomers-2016.pdf

And Doncaster https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/number-of-eu-citizens-living-in-doncaster-has-risen-by-7-000-since-brexit-figures-reveal-1-9482238

So this figure of 30,000 in the whole of South  Yorkshire really doesnt hold any water if theres over 20,000 just in Doncaster ,and rising, and net migration in Sheffield, on top of the ones already there, goes up by at least 5,000 a year.

Which is why I asked where these figures came from, as they are obviously completely inaccurate.

The deadliest weapon politicians and bureaucrats fear the most can be bought in a Poundshop! A calculator! It blows most of their "facts" away!

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, pinfireman said:

And as we know Rewulf, there are 3 kinds of untruths...."lies, damned lies, and statistics!  All these figures are massively out of date!  It,s easy for someone living in the idyllic Somerset  countryside to pontificate on immigration.....

Those figures that Full 'Fact' use , that conveniently end in 2004 just as the supposed net benefit turns into net cost to the country, clearly show that 'independent' sites like Fullfact cant even lie effectively.
Whilst they cant bring themselves to just out and say that migration costs this country money, they waffle on about how stats cant be taken as gospel 'facts' so they arent really FACTS at all.
Something akin to propaganda ?

Remember the referendum spiel about how 'Every £1 we put into the EU , £10 comes back'  😆

So in effect the £9 bn it costs us every year, plus the taxes we collect for them, means they pay us back £90 bn per annum back ?
But , err they dont do they ?
More twisting of truth and facts to make it seem like its a good deal, it might be , if your organisation has an interest in the trough that keeps getting filled by us lowly taxpayers.

If anyone is still daft enough to believe such rubbish , they need to go and have a word with themselves.
Nobodies buying project fear 2, no matter what ballcocks they keep coming out with about whats going to happen, nobodies listening anymore.
NOTHING the remain side has predicted has come true, time to give it up and move on.

[Scully]

Must admit we're getting a bit off topic here, but the local Poles all appear to be in work, and indeed hard workers. There is a large group of eastern europeans ( their nationality seems obscure but Turkish is the belief ) who have opened a car wash in town ( one of several county wide ) and are making a killing as it's all cash in hand work. They are open seven days a week and have a sign stating that 'all profits made on  Sunday will go to local charities', but nobody knows at which point they have made a profit and they themselves seemed unsure when a mate asked. No local charities have so far been offered any cash. There is another twenty minutes away which has just recently made the local news as the owners have been charged with modern slavery offences. 🙂

Some of the east european lasses who work at the Armathwaite bottling plant are fully aware of their entitlements and had told a mate that as soon as they get pregnant they won't be working anymore. He has recently retired and talking to him recently he said he had stopped going in the canteen as he felt left out as he doesn't speak Polish. 😀

OH's brother in law has recently resigned from a school in Sheffield after riots made the national news, when Police told him they could not protect either the pupils or the teachers following riots when the parents of eastern european romanies climbed over fencing into the school when their children began assaulting other ethnic minorities. Expelling the relevant pupils wouldn't work as neither they nor their parents care if their children receive a formal education. 

I'm not making a comment for or against, merely telling it as it is in my experience. 

Back in the late 70's I worked in a big sawmill locally, and many of the lads from Penrith were immigrants and children of immigrants; mostly Poles and Italians. They all worked hard and played hard and integrated fully. I'd like to think current immigrants would do the same, but it doesn't appear to be that way, much like ex pat Brits living in Spain. 😉

What to do? 

[oowee]

48 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

A couple of links here , first one for Sheffield https://www.migrationyorkshire.org.uk/userfiles/file/PolicyandResearch/statistics/newcomers/MY-Sheffield-newcomers-2016.pdf

And Doncaster https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/number-of-eu-citizens-living-in-doncaster-has-risen-by-7-000-since-brexit-figures-reveal-1-9482238

So this figure of 30,000 in the whole of South  Yorkshire really doesnt hold any water if theres over 20,000 just in Doncaster ,and rising, and net migration in Sheffield, on top of the ones already there, goes up by at least 5,000 a year.

Which is why I asked where these figures came from, as they are obviously completely inaccurate.

I got the figure from Pinman's post. 

[wymberley]

Flippin' 'eck, this is all beyond me. All I want to know is do I get a proper passport again?

[pinfireman]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

Must admit we're getting a bit off topic here, but the local Poles all appear to be in work, and indeed hard workers. There is a large group of eastern europeans ( their nationality seems obscure but Turkish is the belief ) who have opened a car wash in town ( one of several county wide ) and are making a killing as it's all cash in hand work. They are open seven days a week and have a sign stating that 'all profits made on  Sunday will go to local charities', but nobody knows at which point they have made a profit and they themselves seemed unsure when a mate asked. No local charities have so far been offered any cash. There is another twenty minutes away which has just recently made the local news as the owners have been charged with modern slavery offences. 🙂

Some of the east european lasses who work at the Armathwaite bottling plant are fully aware of their entitlements and had told a mate that as soon as they get pregnant they won't be working anymore. He has recently retired and talking to him recently he said he had stopped going in the canteen as he felt left out as he doesn't speak Polish. 😀

OH's brother in law has recently resigned from a school in Sheffield after riots made the national news, when Police told him they could not protect either the pupils or the teachers following riots when the parents of eastern european romanies climbed over fencing into the school when their children began assaulting other ethnic minorities. Expelling the relevant pupils wouldn't work as neither they nor their parents care if their children receive a formal education. 

I'm not making a comment for or against, merely telling it as it is in my experience. 

Back in the late 70's I worked in a big sawmill locally, and many of the lads from Penrith were immigrants and children of immigrants; mostly Poles and Italians. They all worked hard and played hard and integrated fully. I'd like to think current immigrants would do the same, but it doesn't appear to be that way, much like ex pat Brits living in Spain. 😉

What to do? 

Pretty accurate post.  A former son-in-law is a specialist maths teacher at a very large comprehensive. He,s been teaching for 35 years. Up to 2004, he thoroughly enjoyed his work. Now he hates it, cannot wait to retire. Problem, the children from  Slovakian and Romanian gypsy families.  They  are totally out of control, the boys grope girls, they fight  in the classroom, and 2 were suspended for  defecating in the playground during break, in full view! He says it,s a nightmare, the kids who are willing to learn are being held back by these trouble makers!

And if you say anything, you are branded a racist!

[old man]

1 hour ago, wymberley said:

Flippin' 'eck, this is all beyond me. All I want to know is do I get a proper passport again?

Don't get excited, there will be no change needed, we will stay but be worse off?