Brexit - merged threads

[Guest cookoff013]

He is even stopping corbynism getting to no 10.

What a guy!

 

[poontang]

23 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Countries? The map I've seen only shows UK constituencies...

 

Yes, the map's probably the most interesting part of the petition.

It clearly shows that those signing in the highest numbers exactly mirrors the highest remain voting constituencies from the referendum. In other words the idea that the country is changing its mind on Brexit is demonstrably false.

Had I seen huge areas of the country which had originally voted to leave suddenly start signing up to this petition then I may have thought there was some mileage in the claim. As it stands it looks to me like very little, if anything, has actually changed since 2016.

 

[Scully]

3 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

All this talk of various people 'manipulating' Brexit ........ The Grauniad has the full story; https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/uri-geller-promises-to-stop-brexit-using-telepathy

Not so sure about the tele part, but he got pathetic right. 

[Raja Clavata]

12 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

Depends, some might have their eye on a future job for life in the bloated EU, but I would imagine most simply view anyone wanting to leave as an xenophobic, racist, little Englander, which is of course complete nonsense, but then political correctness has been out of control for years in this country and I think part of it is an extension of that, its a bit like a virtue signalling competition with who can be the most inclusive, when in reality they are small minded by excluding the rest of the world in favour of the EU. 

 

9 hours ago, Mice! said:

The individuals I see in the media that want to remain are MPs celebrity types, seem to be people on big wages, probably big pensions fancy portfolios i imagine.

Somehow they stand to loose financially.

Then its people who are married to a foreigner maybe Spanish or German? This i understand.

Then there are British folk who don't want to be ruled by/from Europe.

I am still surprised the original vote wasn't a bigger split for leave, maybe the next three or four votes will be different 😣 🤔

Thanks both for the replies. Given the nailed on defacto nature of the accusations against the MPs I was wondering if there was something I was fundamentally missing on this.

[Raja Clavata]

32 minutes ago, poontang said:

Yes, the map's probably the most interesting part of the petition.

It clearly shows that those signing in the highest numbers exactly mirrors the highest remain voting constituencies from the referendum. In other words the idea that the country is changing its mind on Brexit is demonstrably false.

Had I seen huge areas of the country which had originally voted to leave suddenly start signing up to this petition then I may have thought there was some mileage in the claim. As it stands it looks to me like very little, if anything, has actually changed since 2016.

 

You're absolutely right about the distribution but the distribution provides no measure of real numbers or any notion of swing through factors such as remainers switching to leave, vice-versa, disaffected voters from either side giving up on the whole thing and not voting again as well as those who didn't vote last time realising perhaps they should have. And with a 4% difference in outcome last time the change / shift would hardly need to be huge to give a different outcome.

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

You're absolutely right about the distribution but the distribution provides no measure of real numbers or any notion of swing through factors such as remainers switching to leave, vice-versa, disaffected voters from either side giving up on the whole thing and not voting again as well as those who didn't vote last time realising perhaps they should have. And with a 4% difference in outcome last time the change / shift would hardly need to be huge to give a different outcome.

Like Ive said, if there were any indication that , in general, more people would vote to remain now than leave, I guarantee you would not only have had it plastered all over the media, but it would have been acted upon, either by 2nd ref, or just cancelling Brexit altogether.
Forget about polls commissioned by newspapers, and this means both sides (a recent Express poll cites a big swing toward leave) if there was proper official evidence that negated the original 4 point lead, we would know about it.
The reason we DONT know about it is because that 4 point lead is probably bigger now, but thats bad press that they want to ignore.

[Rewulf]

22 hours ago, oowee said:

Give it time. Have a bit of patience. 

Speak of the devil...

++Breaking fake news ! ++

Trump is led away from the White House in handcuffs in disgrace after Mueller report concludes, impeachment and a lengthy prison sentence in a high security, mostly ethnic jail awaits.
Hilary Clinton steps up to the plate , and vows to take over , 'and sort the mess hes made of our great country out ' units of antifa and BLM move into position to secure key logistical sites, whilst the FBI torture Trumps kids for information , God Bless America !

Said no one ever !

Democrats cry, and threaten to move to Canada with most of Hollywood..again..

[TIGHTCHOKE]

[Scully]

I believe a second referendum would give a remain result, for the simple reason the remain campaign would lobby all those uni’ voters who couldn’t be bothered first time around, with an increased scaremongering tactic based on the outcome of stay having a detrimental effect on their careers. 

The campaigns of the first would pale into insignificance compared to the dirty tactics which would be employed to secure votes by both sides. It would be very interesting to say the least. 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Scully

[Newbie to this]

14 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Genuine question relating to the behaviour of MPs in relation to Brexit; one of the inferences mentioned here on several occasions is that of self interest in us remaining in the EU but it's not obvious to me how that would be so. How would MPs, individually and collectively, benefit from us remaining in the EU as opposed to us leaving?

I think a lot of it is about them becoming accountable again, and them actually having to do their job.

Can't blame the EU if we are no longer a member.

These people want an easy life while taking large sums of TAX payer's money.

[Rewulf]

7 minutes ago, Scully said:

I believe a second referendum would give a remain result, for the simple reason the remain campaign would lobby all those uni’ voters who couldn’t be bothered first time around, with an increased scaremongering tactic based on the outcome of stay having a detrimental effect on their careers. 

The campaigns of the first would pale into insignificance compared to the dirty tactics which would be employed to secure votes by both sides. It would be very interesting to say the least. 

I disagree.

A lot of the people who didnt vote the first time for leave, may well have done so thinking 'whats the point?'  we re going to lose anyway.
Now with a win under their belt already, they are empowered.

Not all uni kids are biased toward remain, my daughter and boyfriend, polar opposites politically (daughter conservative party member, boyfriend corbyn worshipping labour party member, currently undergoing political re conditioning by me and daughter😎) both are staunch leavers, and they are far from alone from what they tell me.

Also, people arent stupid, they have seen the behaviour of our remain politicians , and the crooks in Brussels, the distrust of the establishment is real, and palpable.
If the mainstream that you dont trust is telling you to do something, the natural reaction is NOT to do it !

You hear talk of another million kids reaching 18 , and rabid for a vote to remain ?
I would counter far more adults have reached such maturity that they have realised that we dont actually NEED the EU to survive out there.

So, do  we really think remainers have grown in number ?
As I said earlier, there is no evidence to suggest it , the 'evidence' would be a call for another ref. The fact this isnt being pushed, suggests to me they know remain would fail..again, putting the final nail in the coffin of remain.

 

.

[JohnfromUK]

17 minutes ago, Scully said:

I believe a second referendum would give a remain result

I don't know, but I'm not convinced it would.  My reason is that quite a lot of people (including me) voted 'Remain' first time round ......... because it was the more 'known' outcome.  I have no liking for the EU, but I couldn't see how a decent 'deal' would ever be allowed by the EU (punishment to discourage others) - and I wasn't convinced that a 'no deal' would be as easy as many like to make out.

However - the result was a clear (if small) majority for 'Leave' - and I have given that my support since because above all I believe the democratic outcome should be carried through.  For that reason alone I would (in a second referendum) vote leave.  In addition, the EU has been shown up in the negotiations as unhelpful, dictatorial and greedy.  Future EU plans are going in quite the wrong direction for me.

The problem has been our negotiators have been (as far as I can see anyway) simply totally incompetent, we have given away our strongest cards ('no deal' and the £39 billion).  We started on the wrong foot by agreeing to negotiate the 'transition deal' before we knew what we were transitioning to.  That was an EU insistence that they would not discuss future trade agreements until we had agreed the transition period and the 'divorce bill'.  We should have flatly refused to discuss these because the transition needs to be from 'set of rules A' to 'set of rules B' and if we don't know what 'set of rules B' will be - how can we do that?  Similarly on the financial part - how can we agree to pay a fixed fee (£39 billion)  - when we don't know whet we get once we are out of the transition?

[Mice!]

BUT, before another referendum could take place i think another GE would take place with both the major parties hoping to gain a political advantage without the need to suck up to others ie DUP.

Now given people keep talking about strategic voting but most of the MPs have shown they won't do what their asked to do anyway how are people supposed to vote?

Labour remain?

Tory Leave ( possibly) with a deal, maybe?

Another? With a bunch of rejects from other parties???? 

It's going to get messy fast.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

BUT, before another referendum could take place i think another GE would take place with both the major parties hoping to gain a political advantage without the need to suck up to others ie DUP.

Labour remain?

Tory Leave ( possibly) with a deal, maybe?

Corbyn has always been a 'leaver' --- until recently -- but that is just cynical 'playing for the prize of No 10'.

Quite a few Tory M.P.s (like my M.P.) are 'leave', but not a 'no deal' leave.  Remember of those (Tories) not voting for the 'May deal', there are both hard line Remainers (Grieve, Clarke etc.) and hard line Leavers (ERG group).

Labour also has a good number (mainly in northern and other heavy industrial Labour heartands) of solidly Leave M.P.s.  Their remainers tend to be the trendy 'lefty' group and London constituencies (supported by trendy 'lefty' voters) and London's very multi national population.

LibDem, Green, SNP have always been solidly Remain.

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

It's going to get messy fast.

Which is why it wont happen anytime soon, plus its not really going to help sort Brexit.
The Cons would take a GE, labour are cowering in fear at the thought.

Neither want another ref. OR a peoples vote, it would either be very similar or an outright leave win, where would you go from there ?

There are  3 factions in Parliament , Mays deal, No deal or Remain, the antidemocratic remainers are beginning to realise its a lost cause, so are just stalling, hoping that something changes to put them back in the running.
No dealers dont have the numbers, but take strength from it being the legal fallback.
Mays BRINO deal it seems have the numbers , when you take labours whipped seats into consideration, but many of these are the stallers/remainers, will they put Mays deal through rather than No deal ?
This is the problem.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

There are  3 factions in Parliament , Mays deal, No deal or Remain

That is true - but I don't believe 'no deal' is realistic.  I don't believe it can be 'got past' Parliament - led by a Remain speaker (who is of course about as neutral as battery acid).

He will accept an amendment from someone like Grieve calling for revocation of article 50, which will be passed - and so we will remain.  One of the biggest problems we have is that the speaker - who is meant to ensure the true and fair democratic process has decided that he knows best and will only allow motions and amendments (and now even only allow MPs to speak) that suit his preferred agenda.

[Scully]

46 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I disagree.

A lot of the people who didnt vote the first time for leave, may well have done so thinking 'whats the point?'  we re going to lose anyway.
Now with a win under their belt already, they are empowered.

Not all uni kids are biased toward remain, my daughter and boyfriend, polar opposites politically (daughter conservative party member, boyfriend corbyn worshipping labour party member, currently undergoing political re conditioning by me and daughter😎) both are staunch leavers, and they are far from alone from what they tell me.

Also, people arent stupid, they have seen the behaviour of our remain politicians , and the crooks in Brussels, the distrust of the establishment is real, and palpable.
If the mainstream that you dont trust is telling you to do something, the natural reaction is NOT to do it !

You hear talk of another million kids reaching 18 , and rabid for a vote to remain ?
I would counter far more adults have reached such maturity that they have realised that we dont actually NEED the EU to survive out there.

So, do  we really think remainers have grown in number ?
As I said earlier, there is no evidence to suggest it , the 'evidence' would be a call for another ref. The fact this isnt being pushed, suggests to me they know remain would fail..again, putting the final nail in the coffin of remain.

 

.

I sincerely hope you and John are right, I really do, but everything I hear on the news etc has me convinced we ain’t leaving. 

I don’t think there should be a second referendum, but the odds for leaving are stacked against us; the so called ‘peoples vote’ and everything to do with staying is given prime time constantly and gathering momentum, and news reporting is ever increasingly and exceedingly biased toward staying. It’s a propaganda war waged by the establishment, with nogotiations led by those who don’t want to leave. It stinks, as do they,  but I’m not seeing much in the way of a counter offensive.

No one was more surprised than me when I heard Dimbleby on the radio announce ‘we’ll that's it, we’re out’ , but we’ve been on our back foot ever since. 

I do agree with your point that if there had been a genuine shift in people’s decisions it would be major major news, and although the stay campaign smacks of desperation, I believe the leave campaign is beginning to look similar. 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Scully

[poontang]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

You're absolutely right about the distribution but the distribution provides no measure of real numbers or any notion of swing through factors such as remainers switching to leave, vice-versa, disaffected voters from either side giving up on the whole thing and not voting again as well as those who didn't vote last time realising perhaps they should have. And with a 4% difference in outcome last time the change / shift would hardly need to be huge to give a different outcome.

I agree it can only show limited information, but it clearly shows that remain areas would still vote to remain, and leave areas would vote to leave. That much has not changed, there is certainly not the seismic shift across the country as being portrayed by the remain camp. Whether there is a shift significant enough to reverse the 2016 referendum result would of course be open to question, however, if I was in the remain camp I would want to be seeing massive changes across the whole country before waving my sphincter spangled blue rag with too much gusto.

The solution to me is fairly simple. 

Bring an indicative vote before parliament and ask MP's to vote on what the petition is asking for, so simply put a non binding, free vote to all MP's with the simple question: Should we revoke article 50 and stop the Brexit process?       Swiftly followed by a general election.

That should focus a few minds. 

[Rewulf]

8 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

That is true - but I don't believe 'no deal' is realistic.  I don't believe it can be 'got past' Parliament - led by a Remain speaker (who is of course about as neutral as battery acid).

He will accept an amendment from someone like Grieve calling for revocation of article 50, which will be passed - and so we will remain.  One of the biggest problems we have is that the speaker - who is meant to ensure the true and fair democratic process has decided that he knows best and will only allow motions and amendments (and now even only allow MPs to speak) that suit his preferred agenda.

The thing about Parliament, is that what whatever is does, can be undone, it can change the law, then change it back.
But they need a mandate, if public will does not support something, then the efforts of Parliament are open to scrutiny, and law.

No deal IS realistic, technically speaking we voted to leave the single market and customs union/ ECJ ect , whereas revoking A50 is not , when did we vote to bin the first Ref ?
If a majority of MPs seriously think they can totally ignore the peoples will, they need to prepare themselves for trouble, If Bercow thinks he is some kind of house dictator, supreme leader, he needs to think again, or his days are numbered too.

The mandate is there to LEAVE , not stay.

5 minutes ago, Scully said:

I do agree with your point that if there had been a genuine shift in people’s decisions it would be major major news, and although the stay campaign smacks of desperation, I believe the leave campaign is beginning to look similar. 

The leave campaigns job was done in 2016, why do we still need to fight to get Brexit , we won ?

Its remain that needs to fight, and fight they are, but they cannot hope to win, legally and morally, the result needs to be delivered, anything else and we might as well bin this political system and come up with something else, a military junta or mob rule.
There is no point in having a respresentative Parliament if it doesnt represent , and just does what IT wants.
We pay their wages, they work for US.
The time is coming for them to be reminded of that.

[Scully]

34 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

The thing about Parliament, is that what whatever is does, can be undone, it can change the law, then change it back.
But they need a mandate, if public will does not support something, then the efforts of Parliament are open to scrutiny, and law.

No deal IS realistic, technically speaking we voted to leave the single market and customs union/ ECJ ect , whereas revoking A50 is not , when did we vote to bin the first Ref ?
If a majority of MPs seriously think they can totally ignore the peoples will, they need to prepare themselves for trouble, If Bercow thinks he is some kind of house dictator, supreme leader, he needs to think again, or his days are numbered too.

The mandate is there to LEAVE , not stay.

The leave campaigns job was done in 2016, why do we still need to fight to get Brexit , we won ?

Its remain that needs to fight, and fight they are, but they cannot hope to win, legally and morally, the result needs to be delivered, anything else and we might as well bin this political system and come up with something else, a military junta or mob rule.
There is no point in having a respresentative Parliament if it doesnt represent , and just does what IT wants.
We pay their wages, they work for US.
The time is coming for them to be reminded of that.

Couldn’t agree more, but we wouldn’t be the first country to vote leave and then not. 

I sincerely hope you’re right. 

Poontangs suggestion of revoking Article 50, thereby stopping the process,  followed by a GE sounds good to me, if all else fails. 🙂

[CZ550Kevlar]

I cant believe we are in the position we are in now, 7 votes to be held on Monday night, 2 of those take brexit off the table and the rest tie us into Europe. The HOC still sleep soundly at night even after their treachery.

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, Scully said:

Poontangs suggestion of revoking Article 50, thereby stopping the process,  followed by a GE sounds good to me, if all else fails.

What Poontang meant was , would Parliament want to even HAVE a vote on revoking A50 if they knew there was a GE coming right after it ?

This is what it comes down to, Parliament is not representing its constituents, its representing itself in all these very important votes.
How many of those MPs that WOULD vote to cancel Brexit, come from constituencies that voted to leave ?
Even the ones who voted to stay, do they have the majorities  to handle the people that might have voted for THEM , but also voted to leave ?
Its the proverbial turkey voting for Christmas, and thats why they havent already done it.

They didnt have the numbers to win in 2016, and they certainly dont have the numbers to weather a general election AND keep their seats.

4 minutes ago, CZ550Kevlar said:

I cant believe we are in the position we are in now, 7 votes to be held on Monday night, 2 of those take brexit off the table and the rest tie us into Europe. The HOC still sleep soundly at night even after their treachery.

They can vote to cancel Brexit, they can take the vote away from us, but I guarantee if we do get shafted, they get it too.

And if they cant see that coming, theyre not fit for the job anyway.

[ditchman]

As i keep on saying..............if brexit goes breasts up and there is an election.............there will be a massive presence of the far right in parliament.............

[das]

17 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

Spot on, I was speaking to colleagues today and even many who voted remain plan to boycott the Conservatives and Labour Party at the next election and literally everyone I know who voted leave is doing the same if they won't get us out. 

I feel exactly the same, would never vote Conservative again, but, who in the hell is left apart from a useless bunch of snowflakes and a party with a commie leader?

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

I don't know, but I'm not convinced it would.  My reason is that quite a lot of people (including me) voted 'Remain' first time round ......... because it was the more 'known' outcome.  I have no liking for the EU, but I couldn't see how a decent 'deal' would ever be allowed by the EU (punishment to discourage others) - and I wasn't convinced that a 'no deal' would be as easy as many like to make out.

However - the result was a clear (if small) majority for 'Leave' - and I have given that my support since because above all I believe the democratic outcome should be carried through.  For that reason alone I would (in a second referendum) vote leave.  

This is what brexit has become for me, it is now far bigger than leaving the EU, it is now a question of whether we live in a fair and democratic country, 8 can honestly say hand on hart, had remain won, I wouldn't have been over the moon, but I'd have accepted it and fully expected to stay in the EU (although the bias remain campaign did annoy me because I didn't think it was a fair fight). 

Although I disagree, I fully accept that people can and do have a different opinion to me, believing that remaining would make more economical sense, what I can't get my head around is that remain lost the vote and they'd be happy to see the referendum result overturned, the implementation of that has repercussions far beyond anything anyone's seen politically in this country in generations, I feel it makes a mockery of those who have died fighting for freedom (I'm sure many on here like me have lost family members). To overturn what was the largest exercise of democracy this country has ever seen would destroy the fabric this country is built from and anyone who supports that should in my opinion have a think about the consequences.