Brexit - merged threads

[pinfireman]

8 hours ago, pinfireman said:

Guido sources tell him that the Brexit Party has today passed its goal of 100,000 people having signed up as registered supporters of the party, paying £25 each. That’s £2,500,000 raised in small donations in the course of just four weeks since the party launched. Expect the 100,000 members figure to be officially confirmed later today. Meanwhile Change UK have refused to reveal any information about donations they have received over the last two months…

The Tory Party last month revealed it has reached 150,000 members for the first time in almost a decade, but then promptly complained about it. If the Brexit Party continue their trajectory they’ll overtake the Tories in just over two weeks

SOURCE: GUIDO FAWKES

What Nigel has said in the past has been fully reported, discussed.................time to move on. Marr  merely tried to take control of the interview with a smear tactic. It didn,t work!

All these people paid a membership of £25 to help fund the party............................compare that to the £3  marxists who joined Labour.  If Labour had charged £25, it,s unlikely they would have had 10% of the number they actually got.  £25 out of you r Benefits leaves a big hole, but £3 is less than a pint!

[Raja Clavata]

3 hours ago, pinfireman said:

https://order-order.com/2019/05/15/four-welsh-ams-including-mark-reckless-defect-brexit-party/

Mark Reckless and three other Welsh AMs have formally confirmed that they are joining to the Brexit Party, after Guido revealed their imminent defections 24 hours ago. You’re either in front of Guido…

The four AMs have now given official notice to the Welsh Assembly that they are forming a Brexit Party Group in the assembly, with independents Caroline and Mandy Jones joining David Rowlands, who’s quitting UKIP, and Reckless who’s leaving the Tories again. It’s the third time he’s switched party in just five years, will it be third time lucky for Mark?

 

It has been FULLY discussed........Nigel Farage has been held to account!......Marr was just smearing, something he does quite well, except when it,s one of his Left Wing pals!

Reckless looks well chuffed.

How has Farage been held to account? As far as I can tell he either refuses to accept or blames somebody else (standard MP protocol) and his thing with the BBC is "playing to the crowd" and exploiting wider issues the public have with the BBC to further his cause. It's all very clever but does not go unnoticed by everyone.

Serious question: I have heard him state that a vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for WTO Brexit but in the next breath state that if the Brexit Party do well in the EU elections then he will make demands on the government to allow him to participate with the EU on Brexit negotiations - for a simple Essex boy like me, at face value at least, I find this a bit confusing, what does he really mean?

[Good shot?]

7 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

 

Serious question: I have heard him state that a vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for WTO Brexit but in the next breath state that if the Brexit Party do well in the EU elections then he will make demands on the government to allow him to participate with the EU on Brexit negotiations - for a simple Essex boy like me, at face value at least, I find this a bit confusing, what does he really mean?

IMO it is for the same reason that Tony Blair is encouraging Labour remain voters who will not vote for Labour in EU elections to vote for another remain party.

the result in Eu elections re remain or leave will give them a clearer position on potential result of another referendum and strength to their position.

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by Good shot?

[Walker570]

As my granny would say....it will all come out in the wash in 7 days time.   Bring it on.

[12gauge82]

10 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Reckless looks well chuffed.

How has Farage been held to account? As far as I can tell he either refuses to accept or blames somebody else (standard MP protocol) and his thing with the BBC is "playing to the crowd" and exploiting wider issues the public have with the BBC to further his cause. It's all very clever but does not go unnoticed by everyone.

Serious question: I have heard him state that a vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for WTO Brexit but in the next breath state that if the Brexit Party do well in the EU elections then he will make demands on the government to allow him to participate with the EU on Brexit negotiations - for a simple Essex boy like me, at face value at least, I find this a bit confusing, what does he really mean?

I don't think Farage can be blamed for what's going on, he's not in a position to actually do anything, all the main party's particularly the Cons have done everything in their power to block him from helping, despite his offer as a go between with trump as they are very close, such is the fear from treasondisMay, she actually stipulated that trump not be allowed to meet Farage on his upcoming state visit. 

Your second point I feel unfair to, Farage has been crystal clear on the relationship he'd like us to have with the EU from the very day the leave vote won, he has stated many, many times he'd like a free trade deal with the EU, but if they won't we should walk away, aka hard brexit and retry negotiations from there, if they still won't see sense then we trade with the rest of the world, as it would still be better than where we are currently, I don't know how he could be any clearer to be honest. 

Regardless of what anyone's personal view of Farage is, I don't think anyone can fairly give him criticism on not being clear on where he stands with the EU, he must be the only politician (and his brexit party) with a totally honest and clear stated aim of what they want to achieve. 

[JohnfromUK]

5 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Regardless of what anyone's personal view of Farage is, I don't think anyone can fairly give him criticism on not being clear on where he stands with the EU

I would agree with you there, and I'm certainly not 'anti Farage' and will be voting for the Brexit candidates in the EU elections.

However, I do have concerns (very grave ones) that in any future Westminster elections, the Brexit party have BIG problems;

1. As yet, we don't really know where they stand on the Economy, Taxation, Fiscal policy, Pensions, Benefits
2. We don't know where they stand on many 'home' issues like Health, Education, Transport, Welfare State
3. We don't know where they stand on many 'foreign' issues - Defence, Foreign policy etc.

I think we have an idea where they stand on things like Immigration, Law and Order - (all towards the 'middle right', which is not a bad thing in my view).  The problem is that IF they stand for Westminster seats - it will probably be on a manifesto similar to a right of centre Tory view, and without some 'pre agreement' with the Tory party, the result will split the centre right vote and very probably lead to a hard left Corbyn led government.  Not something any Brexit or Tory supporter would relish.  Hopefully, whoever succeeds May will be a 'leaver' and be able to have an electoral pact with Farage where they don't stand against each other.  We can then have a Government with a majority of leavers in Parliament, eject the likes of Grieve, Soubery, etc. and get on with setting up real 'post Brexit' trade agreements worldwide (including with European countries).

[pinfireman]

33 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

I don't think Farage can be blamed for what's going on, he's not in a position to actually do anything, all the main party's particularly the Cons have done everything in their power to block him from helping, despite his offer as a go between with trump as they are very close, such is the fear from treasondisMay, she actually stipulated that trump not be allowed to meet Farage on his upcoming state visit. 

Your second point I feel unfair to, Farage has been crystal clear on the relationship he'd like us to have with the EU from the very day the leave vote won, he has stated many, many times he'd like a free trade deal with the EU, but if they won't we should walk away, aka hard brexit and retry negotiations from there, if they still won't see sense then we trade with the rest of the world, as it would still be better than where we are currently, I don't know how he could be any clearer to be honest. 

Regardless of what anyone's personal view of Farage is, I don't think anyone can fairly give him criticism on not being clear on where he stands with the EU, he must be the only politician (and his brexit party) with a totally honest and clear stated aim of what they want to achieve. 

Correct!

16 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I would agree with you there, and I'm certainly not 'anti Farage' and will be voting for the Brexit candidates in the EU elections.

However, I do have concerns (very grave ones) that in any future Westminster elections, the Brexit party have BIG problems;

1. As yet, we don't really know where they stand on the Economy, Taxation, Fiscal policy, Pensions, Benefits
2. We don't know where they stand on many 'home' issues like Health, Education, Transport, Welfare State
3. We don't know where they stand on many 'foreign' issues - Defence, Foreign policy etc.

I think we have an idea where they stand on things like Immigration, Law and Order - (all towards the 'middle right', which is not a bad thing in my view).  The problem is that IF they stand for Westminster seats - it will probably be on a manifesto similar to a right of centre Tory view, and without some 'pre agreement' with the Tory party, the result will split the centre right vote and very probably lead to a hard left Corbyn led government.  Not something any Brexit or Tory supporter would relish.  Hopefully, whoever succeeds May will be a 'leaver' and be able to have an electoral pact with Farage where they don't stand against each other.  We can then have a Government with a majority of leavers in Parliament, eject the likes of Grieve, Soubery, etc. and get on with setting up real 'post Brexit' trade agreements worldwide (including with European countries).

Works for me..............however, as we are, as yet a long way from a General Election, there is plenty of time for The Brexit Party to come up with a manifesto that suits the many..................

[Rewulf]

28 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I would agree with you there, and I'm certainly not 'anti Farage' and will be voting for the Brexit candidates in the EU elections.

However, I do have concerns (very grave ones) that in any future Westminster elections, the Brexit party have BIG problems;

1. As yet, we don't really know where they stand on the Economy, Taxation, Fiscal policy, Pensions, Benefits
2. We don't know where they stand on many 'home' issues like Health, Education, Transport, Welfare State
3. We don't know where they stand on many 'foreign' issues - Defence, Foreign policy etc.

I think we have an idea where they stand on things like Immigration, Law and Order - (all towards the 'middle right', which is not a bad thing in my view).  The problem is that IF they stand for Westminster seats - it will probably be on a manifesto similar to a right of centre Tory view, and without some 'pre agreement' with the Tory party, the result will split the centre right vote and very probably lead to a hard left Corbyn led government.  Not something any Brexit or Tory supporter would relish.  Hopefully, whoever succeeds May will be a 'leaver' and be able to have an electoral pact with Farage where they don't stand against each other.  We can then have a Government with a majority of leavers in Parliament, eject the likes of Grieve, Soubery, etc. and get on with setting up real 'post Brexit' trade agreements worldwide (including with European countries).

When various interviewers have quizzed Farage on his GE policies , he has stated very clearly, WHEN a GE happens, and WHEN they field 650 MP candidates, they will announce their policies.
He has stated that there wont be a Brexit party manifesto, as the electorate have seen that many party manifesto promises broken, people simply dont trust them anymore.

When there is a GE , and depending on what dogs dinner May and Corbyn make of Brexit, it could be this year, we will see the battle lines drawn.
Labour will make promises they cant keep.
Change UK will disappear into the ether.
The Cons will continue to fight within themselves and likely some will  form a splinter group or defect to Farage.
The Libs will likely gain some ground , whilst spewing out hot air.
The Brexit party will become the 3rd wheel within British politics, probably forming some kind of coalition or alliance with favorable Cons.

[JohnfromUK]

57 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

he has stated very clearly, WHEN a GE happens, and WHEN they field 650 MP candidates, they will announce their policies.

Agreed, but we don't know them now.

 

57 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

He has stated that there wont be a Brexit party manifesto

People will want to know what they are voting for (apart from Brexit)

 

57 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Labour will make promises they cant keep.

And sadly many will believe them as they think (some some mad reason) that 'Jeremy' is a man of his word - a 'man of the people' whose word can be trusted.  It is about as trustworthy as Abbotts arithmetic.

On a different note the possible EU next Commissioner (Frans Timmermans, Junckers replacement) has said that the attempt at Brexit "should be a warning to other countries tempted to try to break away from the bloc."

Edited May 16, 2019 by JohnfromUK

[oowee]

Tory's cant have an agreement with the Brexit party if they field 650 candidates.

People voted for Brexit with no idea what it means so I can't see the same people holding back on voting for a party with no idea of a manifesto. Hard for Farage to have a manifesto for the add on bits of policy (everything other than Brexit) when you have no plan for the central plank of policy (Brexit). 

Be interesting to see where the tory party are on Brexit post May. 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by oowee

[TIGHTCHOKE]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

Tory's cant have an agreement with the Brexit party if they field 650 candidates.

People voted for Brexit with no idea what it means so I can't see the same people holding back on voting for a party with no idea of a manifesto. Hard for Farage to have a manifesto for the add on bits of policy (everything other than Brexit) when you have no plan for the central plank of policy (Brexit). 

Be interesting to see where the tory party are on Brexit post May. 

No manifesto YET, they do not need to publish one until a General Election is announced, I hope the Brexit Party cause a few professional politicians to either raise their game or give up a job they are not very good at.

[Rewulf]

22 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Agreed, but we don't know them now.

People will want to know what they are voting for (apart from Brexit)

 

The electorate are voting on EU elections at this time, when did anyone want to know what the policies were of UKIP , or for that matter any other MEP candidate in the past.
The Brexit parties MEP candidates are dedicated to one thing, the clue is in the name.

 

25 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

And sadly many will believe them as they think (some some mad reason) that 'Jeremy' is a man of his word - a 'man of the people' whose word can be trusted.  It is about as trustworthy as Abbotts arithmetic.

I believe things are changing, Brexit has shown may of our politicos for what they are.

 

26 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

On a different note the possible EU next Commissioner (Frans Timmermans, Junckers replacement) has said that the attempt at Brexit "should be a warning to other countries tempted to try to break away from the bloc."

Which , in this context, they should really keep such comments out of the public domain, people are listening, and having their eyes opened now.

 

7 minutes ago, oowee said:

Tory's cant have an agreement with the Brexit party if they field 650 candidates.

Why not? It aint over till the fat lady sings, when the results are in, THEN the dealing can start, you dont NOT field a candidate because it might not win.
Even the Greens field most constituencies and lose 99 % of them.

[JohnfromUK]

7 minutes ago, oowee said:

Be interesting to see where the tory party are on Brexit post May.

If the Tory party become a remain party, they will be finished.  The field is full of remain parties, LibDem, SNP, Labour (most MPs and front bench anyway), Green (or wannabe remain parties like Change UK).  Most constituencies will have several 'leave' candidates on the ballot paper.

On the other hand roughly 50% of the voting population are leave supporters - and if the Tories have sense, they will do a pact with Brexit to ensure only one (ignoring the now unelectable UKIP) solid remainer.  It is I think a sound strategy for a decent future.

[Rewulf]

12 minutes ago, oowee said:

I can't see the same people holding back on voting for a party with no idea of a manifesto.

Its EU elections , youre not voting for a party, youre voting for MEPs that will sit there , and maybe get asked to vote for something when the commission deems the vote will go their way.

1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

On the other hand roughly 50% of the voting population are leave supporters - and if the Tories have sense, they will do a pact with Brexit to ensure only one (ignoring the now unelectable UKIP) solid remainer.  It is I think a sound strategy for a decent future.

Very much so.
Brexit WILL happen, and more than likely WTO style.
Because thats whats been forced upon us by the remain MPs , it will also happen because thats what the British people , by majority ,want.

[oowee]

2 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

No manifesto YET, they do not need to publish one until a General Election is announced, I hope the Brexit Party cause a few professional politicians to either raise their game or give up a job they are not very good at.

I would not want to call a GE at this point but it would seem reasonable to end up with a mass of smaller parties, in which case we could well end up with stalemate not too far removed from where we are now. 

The Tories can't stand on an out manifesto as they would be head to head with Farage splitting the vote. 50% may be leave but a good percentage will be blue and a good percentage will be red. What are the policy groupings. All out, out with a foot in, mostly in, remain, peoples vote. 

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Plain old OUT will do perfectly.

[Rewulf]

8 minutes ago, oowee said:

I would not want to call a GE at this point but it would seem reasonable to end up with a mass of smaller parties, in which case we could well end up with stalemate not too far removed from where we are now. 

The Tories can't stand on an out manifesto as they would be head to head with Farage splitting the vote. 50% may be leave but a good percentage will be blue and a good percentage will be red. What are the policy groupings. All out, out with a foot in, mostly in, remain, peoples vote. 

 

Its whether they can avoid a GE .
If Mays vote fails again (which it likely will) the threat of revoking A50 is a definite GE scenario.
Any more delay is a GE scenario, and Mays deal going through, is a very possible GE scenario.

A WTO Brexit option by the tories stops Farage dead, the establishment will still suffer, but at least all those leavers would show some support to the party that made it happen.
In my mind , thats the only hope the tories have of surviving and staying in power.
Will they do it ?
Too many remainers on board to let it happen Im afraid, so the Brexit party will sail into those shoes in some capacity.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

Too many remainers on board to let it happen Im afraid

That and they could never get it past Parliament with the present lot.

IF you want a Brexit, there is only one sequence by which I can see it happening;

1. New Tory leader (as soon as possible) who is a committed leaver
2. Call GE just before Brexit Article 50 deal expires at the end of October - preventing revocation of Article 50 - so we leave no deal
3. 'Pact' with Farage to have only one leave candidate in any constituency
4. New (hopefully with a majority) committed leave government takes over a country that has just left with no deal
5. Negotiate new trade agreements with ALL countries that will trade with us (and there will be plenty).

[Rewulf]

6 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

That and they could never get it past Parliament with the present lot.

IF you want a Brexit, there is only one sequence by which I can see it happening;

1. New Tory leader (as soon as possible) who is a committed leaver
2. Call GE just before Brexit Article 50 deal expires at the end of October - preventing revocation of Article 50 - so we leave no deal
3. 'Pact' with Farage to have only one leave candidate in any constituency
4. New (hopefully with a majority) committed leave government takes over a country that has just left with no deal
5. Negotiate new trade agreements with ALL countries that will trade with us (and there will be plenty).

Sounds like a plausible scenario, I believe theres more than one way to do it though, this https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1112387/brexit-news-latest-article-50-extension-delay-robin-tillbrook-english-democrats is another way.

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Sounds like a plausible scenario, I believe theres more than one way to do it though, this https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1112387/brexit-news-latest-article-50-extension-delay-robin-tillbrook-english-democrats is another way.

I'm afraid I won't be holding my breath for that one.  Lots of lawyers will get large fees, it will be referred to a higher court - and more lawyers will get large fees - and ultimately it will get nowhere for whatever reason the courts dream up once they have banked their fee cheques.

[Walker570]

1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

Agreed, but we don't know them now.

 

People will want to know what they are voting for (apart from Brexit)

 

And sadly many will believe them as they think (some some mad reason) that 'Jeremy' is a man of his word - a 'man of the people' whose word can be trusted.  It is about as trustworthy as Abbotts arithmetic.

On a different note the possible EU next Commissioner (Frans Timmermans, Junckers replacement) has said that the attempt at Brexit "should be a warning to other countries tempted to try to break away from the bloc."

When asked directly by Nick Ferrari he made the perfect reply ...not a manifeasto misspelling intended....but A CONTRACT WITH THE PEOPLE.  The idea appears that they will poll all of their supporters, increasing daily and will then put out their intentions, a contract with the people. Sounds a plan to me.  

[TIGHTCHOKE]

3 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

When asked directly by Nick Ferrari he made the perfect reply ...not a manifeasto misspelling intended....but A CONTRACT WITH THE PEOPLE.  The idea appears that they will poll all of their supporters, increasing daily and will then put out their intentions, a contract with the people. Sounds a plan to me.  

 

A true revolutionary! Asking the people what they want and then working to give it to them, a whole NEW chapter in British Politics!

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I'm afraid I won't be holding my breath for that one.  Lots of lawyers will get large fees, it will be referred to a higher court - and more lawyers will get large fees - and ultimately it will get nowhere for whatever reason the courts dream up once they have banked their fee cheques.

In opposition to the government you would be correct.

But if the government, with maybe a new leader, was looking to get a no deal Brexit through, SUPPORTED the case, then , maybe its chances of success would be far better.
Either way its a way of galvanising public opinion toward the WTO scenario.

2 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

A true revolutionary! Asking the people what they want and then working to give it to them, a whole NEW chapter in British Politics!

Amen to that !

[JohnfromUK]

8 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

The idea appears that they will poll all of their supporters, increasing daily and will then put out their intentions, a contract with the people. Sounds a plan to me.

So in effect the candidates standing and putting themselves forward to stand - don't really know what basic policies (other than to leave the EU) they will be be standing on?  That is wholly unsatisfactory.

In a 'traditional party' - whilst you don't have the detailed manifesto when selecting candidates, there is an official 'understood' party policy and set of values.  For example (excluding Brexit itself) with the

• Tories it is for encouraging saving, a sound economic footing for business, low taxation, low(ish) spending, reducing debt, encouraging private enterprise, generally supporting UN/USA foreign policy, (sort of) controlling immigration etc.
• Labour it is redistribution of saved wealth, high spending, increased borrowing, increasing taxation especially on business, increased state control and renationalisation, supporting countries like Palestine, Venezuela, North Korea rather than the traditional USA supported ones, welcoming immigrants.

My assumption is that the Brexit party will broadly align with the Tory view, but perhaps I am wrong?  I could stand as a candidate (I never would!) based on something along the Tory lines, but I couldn't based on the Labour lines because I don't believe in those policies.

They HAVE TO have some basic position if they are to get the right (and high grade) candidates (or we will end up like UKIP with a load of ex EDL thugs in the running).  Any candidate worth voting for will want to know the basic principles the party wishes to support.

[243deer]

19 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

 

A true revolutionary! Asking the people what they want and then working to give it to them, a whole NEW chapter in British Politics!

+1

Does anyone really believe that a manifesto from any political party has any meaning or influence in the real world? They are simply a collection of sound bites designed to get a vote. All they do is to devalue the paper that they are written on and keep printers and journalists in work. The 2 main parties have had it cosy for too long, time for a political revolution.