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BREXIT - merged threads

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    56 minutes ago, blackbird said:

    And you had faith in previous governments 😂😂😂

    If you had NO faith in governments, then you wouldnt vote.
    At the extreme end of the scale you would support forcibly removing the government, which this country hasnt had cause to do for 400 years, but it happens at least once on this planet nearly every year.

    Having little faith is a manageable situation , you can vote , you can lobby or protest.
    When none of those things work , or are ignored, you are left with little recourse of what to do...
    But the longer that rear stays connected to your 0% finance sofa, the harder it gets to do that something else.

     

    56 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

    In my view a hard brexit will not happen because Parliament won't allow it.  It isn't democracy, but once you are sat on those green benches, democracy is for the plebs outside.  You have the power.

    Parliament wont allow ?
    But they will allow the vote to be overturned and keep us in the EU, against all democratic standards and parliamentary confidences placed upon them by the electorate ?
    Be interesting come next election then.
    I remember a mainstream party that soon became a fringe party back in 2015 that thought they could get away with that.

    4 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

    And any agreement that means the EU has any control over the  UK is less

    Exactly.

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    38 minutes ago, oowee said:

    No we voted to leave the EU nothing more nothing less.

    We do not know what those tariffs would be. It's likely that most favoured nation rates would change. WTO process will at whatever rate is set result in a huge cost to companies not just in the set up admin but in lost sales and delay at the cliff edge. Please get real we want to avoid this at all costs. If we said at the start that this is what we were going to do then we would have prepared.

    Exactly, we voted to leave, not to replace being in the EU with being a member of a club with the same members with almost exactly the same rules that applied before, except we couldn't even leave this "new" club without the EUs permission. That's not leaving and those who voted aren't stupid enough to fall for it.

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    9 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

    Parliament wont allow ?
    But they will allow the vote to be overturned and keep us in the EU, against all democratic standards and parliamentary confidences placed upon them by the electorate ?
    Be interesting come next election then.
    I remember a mainstream party that soon became a fringe party back in 2015 that thought they could get away with that.

    As I have said in a previous post, ALL parties have problems with a 'hard' brexit.

    • Some Tories (ERG and a few others) may support it, some (Soubery, Grieve etc. will not)
    • Some Labour (mainly northern constituencies) may support it, but it will be very few as they will be whipped against it
    • No Lib Dems will support it
    • No SNP and probably no Welsh will support it
    • Few NI members will support it (as it would mean a hard border with Eire).

    What effect will that have on the next election?  Whatever you voted for in the referendum and whoever you voted for at the last election will have little or no effect on what your MP votes - because it is not along party lines - and neither main party has any internal discipline which would enable the whips to 'force' a vote.

    People can rant as much as they like - but come the next election, it will make little difference because it isn't a party political issue

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    1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

    As I have said in a previous post, ALL parties have problems with a 'hard' brexit.

    • Some Tories (ERG and a few others) may support it, some (Soubery, Grieve etc. will not)
    • Some Labour (mainly northern constituencies) may support it, but it will be very few as they will be whipped against it
    • No Lib Dems will support it
    • No SNP and probably no Welsh will support it
    • Few NI members will support it (as it would mean a hard border with Eire).

    What effect will that have on the next election?  Whatever you voted for in the referendum and whoever you voted for at the last election will have little or no effect on what your MP votes - because it is not along party lines - and neither main party has any internal discipline which would enable the whips to 'force' a vote.

    People can rant as much as they like - but come the next election, it will make little difference because it isn't a party political issue

    ^^^^^^ this. Whatever side of the vote you were on right (remain) or wrong (leave) (ok ok joking :lol:) you are not getting a lot of choice come next election. There are extremes at both ends of the Brexit system but I bet there is a consensus somewhere in the middle for a common sense solution to these things. First past the post is not going to do it. 

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    11 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

    People can rant as much as they like - but come the next election, it will make little difference because it isn't a party political issue

     

    2 minutes ago, oowee said:

    ^^^^^^ this. Whatever side of the vote you were on right (remain) or wrong (leave) (ok ok joking :lol:) you are not getting a lot of choice come next election. There are extremes at both ends of the Brexit system but I bet there is a consensus somewhere in the middle for a common sense solution to these things. First past the post is not going to do it. 

    I think you are both absolutely wrong.

    Why did we even get a referendum ?
    Have you forgot how UKIP stole 4m votes out of the electorate ?
    It made Cam lose his bottle that bad before the 2015 election that he put a ref. in the manifesto.
    He banked on those 4 m votes going the tory way, he was partially right
    Knowing full well (and wrongly) that remain would win.
    The full weight of media and sitting government behind staying, how could it go wrong...

    Believe it or not guys, those 17.4 m voters are still out there, and if we are not out of the EU in 4 months time, theres going to be some angry voters out there, and a new party thats going to scoop them all up and cause shockwaves in British politics.

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    Who knows but 4m votes does not make a party in power. There is little evidence of huge interest in the topic prior to the vote that Cameron was forced to initiate. A large portion of the 17m will be moderate voters, new parties are notoriously difficult to get off the ground and maintain. There are now 3m new voters. People have a far better understanding of the topic. 

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    23 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

     

    I think you are both absolutely wrong.

    Why did we even get a referendum ?
    Have you forgot how UKIP stole 4m votes out of the electorate ?
    It made Cam lose his bottle that bad before the 2015 election that he put a ref. in the manifesto.
    He banked on those 4 m votes going the tory way, he was partially right
    Knowing full well (and wrongly) that remain would win.
    The full weight of media and sitting government behind staying, how could it go wrong...

    Believe it or not guys, those 17.4 m voters are still out there, and if we are not out of the EU in 4 months time, theres going to be some angry voters out there, and a new party thats going to scoop them all up and cause shockwaves in British politics.

    I agree, I've spoken to slot of people I know many of which life long conservative voters and most of those that voted leave have said the same as me, if they won't deliver brexit, I'll never vote conservative again, not unless it's led by JRM or the like anyway.

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    3 minutes ago, oowee said:

    Who knows but 4m votes does not make a party in power. There is little evidence of huge interest in the topic prior to the vote that Cameron was forced to initiate. A large portion of the 17m will be moderate voters, new parties are notoriously difficult to get off the ground and maintain. There are now 3m new voters. People have a far better understanding of the topic. 

    It wouldnt be 4 m  votes now, they were obviously people who supported UKIP , drawn from traditional labour or tory voters, when the tories promised a ref. 3/4 of those UKIP voters went back to their traditional parties, but enough sided with the tories to grant them victory.

    Of those that voted leave, you would have a good part of that 17.4 m who most definitely wont be voted tory, despite whatever previous alliance.
    Some might go to labour, they certainly wont be going to libdems.
    I will tell you now , they will be looking for a staunch eurosceptic party, or they will drift to the far right.
    Either way, the tories are finished if they dont get us out properly, its pointless talking about MPs like Soubry , because she will be gone next time the people of Broxtowe vote, and having just moved out of Broxtowe, that I can guarantee you, the woman cannot walk the streets.

    Not delivering the Brexit voted for will cause calamity, it might even be worse than that, a labour government :lol:

    But I can assure you , if we end up remaining, there will be trouble.

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    All my family members who voted leave will all be voting Labour at the next election irrespective of where we are in relation to Brexit. How many other similar Leave voters are there out there? (I've no idea by the way just asking)

    Cheers

    Aled  

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    33 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

     

    I think you are both absolutely wrong.

    Why did we even get a referendum ?
    Have you forgot how UKIP stole 4m votes out of the electorate ?
    It made Cam lose his bottle that bad before the 2015 election that he put a ref. in the manifesto.
    He banked on those 4 m votes going the tory way, he was partially right
    Knowing full well (and wrongly) that remain would win.
    The full weight of media and sitting government behind staying, how could it go wrong...

    Believe it or not guys, those 17.4 m voters are still out there, and if we are not out of the EU in 4 months time, theres going to be some angry voters out there, and a new party thats going to scoop them all up and cause shockwaves in British politics.

    Totally agree, the country is in desperate need of a new party that looks after this countries own interests first.

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    6 minutes ago, Aled said:

    All my family members who voted leave will all be voting Labour at the next election irrespective of where we are in relation to Brexit. How many other similar Leave voters are there out there? (I've no idea by the way just asking)

    Cheers

    Aled  

    That's not too surprising as looking at your profile, it looks like your from S Wales, that area never forget about Thatcher and many there will never vote conservative regardless what the party did, its a good demonstration however, that the voters won't forget if government does something they don't like badly enough, depending on what May and pals do, it could be the end of the conservative party if enough of the leave voters are as annoyed as I am.

    1 minute ago, JRDS said:

    Totally agree, the country is in desperate need of a new party that looks after this countries own interests first.

    What this country needs is a working persons party and I don't mean one that pretends to be like Labour either.

    Edited by 12gauge82

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    Just now, Aled said:

    All my family members who voted leave will all be voting Labour at the next election irrespective of where we are in relation to Brexit.

    Good on them Aled, and i cant imagine what  mess a labour government would do.

    But this is democracy, a party acts the way the tories have done , they are going to take a punishing , and rightly so.

    Quite why the tories arent  booting May down the road Ive no idea, can they not see whats going to happen ?

    My daughter is a conservative party member, and a couple of months back she received a letter,  unequivocally stating that we WILL be leaving the EU, a promise as such from Con HQ.
    So they lied and mislead their members too, thats bad policy, fatal even,

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    33 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

    Believe it or not guys, those 17.4 m voters are still out there, and if we are not out of the EU in 4 months time, theres going to be some angry voters out there, and a new party thats going to scoop them all up and cause shockwaves in British politics.

    Spot on.:good:And in an age when politicians are falling over themselves to pander to the whims of minority groups in their PC world, they will rue the day that they ignored this majority.

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    3 minutes ago, TriBsa said:

    Spot on.:good:And in an age when politicians are falling over themselves to pander to the whims of minority groups in their PC world, they will rue the day that they ignored this majority.

    Put it this way, I wont forget, ever.
    And Im not alone, not by a long shot.
    If anyone thinks that the people cant change things , They are not looking at history.
    Its not like you have to go back through the mists of time to see what happens when government stops listening to the people .

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    45 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

    and a new party thats going to scoop them all up and cause shockwaves in British politics.

    Like UKIP never did?  UKIP is (at present anyway), dead in the water.  They got Cameron to hold a referendum, a 'deal' has been explored and 'negotiated' with the EU.  The EU won't give a good deal (it isn't in their interests for us to be better off by leaving), so we have a bad deal, or no deal.  That is not the fault of the UK party system, it is simply that the EU can't/won't/don't dare to give a 'good' deal.

    Parliament (those MPs we all elected) will vote - and it won't be for a 'no deal'.  And that will be people from ALL parties.

    IF UKIP - or any new party are to do any good at all at the next election ......... there has to be a majority in Parliament for leave.  That simply won't happen.

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    7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

    Like UKIP never did?  UKIP is (at present anyway), dead in the water.  They got Cameron to hold a referendum, a 'deal' has been explored and 'negotiated' with the EU.  The EU won't give a good deal (it isn't in their interests for us to be better off by leaving), so we have a bad deal, or no deal.  That is not the fault of the UK party system, it is simply that the EU can't/won't/don't dare to give a 'good' deal.

    Parliament (those MPs we all elected) will vote - and it won't be for a 'no deal'.  And that will be people from ALL parties.

    IF UKIP - or any new party are to do any good at all at the next election ......... there has to be a majority in Parliament for leave.  That simply won't happen.

    UKIP are finished, their brand is tainted, probably always has been , due to the migration of far right elements from the BNP ect, it didnt help that, as a political party, they were and always have been a one trick pony.

    It needs to be a new party, new faces , with new money, with a centrist , eurosceptic policy, Id vote for that, and it would be the first time Ive voted for a political party ever.

    But you keep saying the MPs wont give us a no deal?
    So what do we get ? May has touted her deal, and NO other deal for months now, ministers have resigned in their droves, leadership contests looming, but she just drives on KNOWING that this deal is not going to get passed.
    Then its made plain by the EU there will absolutely be no further concessions,   parliament talks about trying to get more concessions from them 😂
    So no 'no deal'  No 'deal' No further concessions and no other alternatives leaves us with ? Remain.

    Do they think were stupid ?

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    12 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

    Like UKIP never did?  UKIP is (at present anyway), dead in the water.  They got Cameron to hold a referendum, a 'deal' has been explored and 'negotiated' with the EU.  The EU won't give a good deal (it isn't in their interests for us to be better off by leaving), so we have a bad deal, or no deal.  That is not the fault of the UK party system, it is simply that the EU can't/won't/don't dare to give a 'good' deal.

    Parliament (those MPs we all elected) will vote - and it won't be for a 'no deal'.  And that will be people from ALL parties.

    IF UKIP - or any new party are to do any good at all at the next election ......... there has to be a majority in Parliament for leave.  That simply won't happen.

    Maybe, maybe not. Both Labour and the Conservatives have moved away from the politics and beliefs of their core voters. They have centralised control over their constituency parties and picked/approved their candidates for them. There are a lot of disenfranchised voters out there, who do not strongly identify with either candidate offered by both main parties. The time is ripe for change, you only have to look at the rise of anti-establishment populist parties in Europe to see this. We in the UK may follow.

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    Just now, TriBsa said:

    Maybe, maybe not. Both Labour and the Conservatives have moved away from the politics and beliefs of their core voters. They have centralised control over their constituency parties and picked/approved their candidates for them. There are a lot of disenfranchised voters out there, who do not strongly identify with either candidate offered by both main parties. The time is ripe for change, you only have to look at the rise of anti-establishment populist parties in Europe to see this. We in the UK may follow.

    Indeed it is.

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    1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

    Do they think were stupid ?

    I don't think anyone ever thought the EU would give us a good deal.  That is why May - right back at stage one said that "no deal is better than a bad deal".

    She has come up (and no one really knows how hard she has tried) with 'a deal', but most people think it is a 'bad deal' (as many expected).  There seems to be general agreement on this forum anyway that the EU won't give more.

    So - it should be 'no deal' - but Parliament won't pass that (and that is assuming May thies to go that route).  That is not May, or any particular party's fault.  It is each and every MP choosing his/her own vote according to his/her conscience.  We have discussed MP's consciences before.

    5 minutes ago, TriBsa said:

    Maybe, maybe not.   The time is ripe for change.

    The SDP tried it ........ failed

    UKIP tried it ........... failing as of now.

    It isn't easy to do and breaking the 'two party' system has never been achieved.

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    my take on it is, I voted to remain but the country voted out & out we go (NO second ballot) that’s all I hear now the leave voters moaning about the deal & that’s not what they voted to leave for. I would say make your views clear next election & vote Labour & get this shower of **** that’s in power OUT. I have never voted Labour but will next election.

    Edited by blackbird

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    1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

    It is each and every MP choosing his/her own vote according to his/her conscience.

    Thats a soubry line , ' I cannot in all conscience vote to leave the EU '
    Its not their decision, unless each MPs vote counts for 100,000 of the electorates votes?

    If May actually wanted to leave, they should have indicated early on that No deal was the preferred state for the UK.
    Then let the EU decide what they would offer us to not do this.
    Thats no pipe dream, thats a hard business like decision that yields positive results.

    Sorry , but the more I think about this , the more it seems like we havnt arrived at this position by accident.
    My conspiracy gland is twitching as we speak.

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    Time will tell but unless brexit is delivered as promised, I can see the conservative party ending up the same as it has in the S Wales valleys and parts of the north East, completely dead in the water.

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