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Alleged Russian assassins on TV


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On 06/10/2018 at 17:59, grrclark said:

This thread is an interesting read although not particularly for the content, but rather how it paints the picture of the reasoning and thought process of some of those contributing.

For those who are interested in such things there are some pretty good examples of all sorts of cognitive biases in this thread, but notable in particular are the Semmelweis Reflex, Anecdotal Fallacy and Inductive Reasoning.

Semmelweis Reflex is simply discarding new information or evidence as it contradicts an established belief system.

Anecdotal Fallacy is rather what it sounds like, which is the substitution of anecdotal supposition in place of factual evidence.

Inductive Reasoning, which is a bit harder to explain, is when the premise of the argument is considered to be evidence to the truth of the conclusion.  Two simplified examples in the context of this thread.

1st one being;  Russia GRU agents are baddies who make Novichok (premise of the argument), therefor the inductive reasoning is that the truth of a nearly dead Russian traitor by Novichok can only mean Russia did it.

or, Russian GRU agents are highly skilled who make deadly military grade Novichok (premise of the argument), therefor the inductive reasoning says that the truth of a calamitous trail of evidence of left by the prime suspects and bodged end result of a nearly dead Russian traitor, his daughter, a sickly policeman and a dead alcoholic woman can only mean that the Russian's didn't do it.

From Saturday 6pm until Tuesday 10-30ish and still we have 1/2 a page of the same old... 🤦‍♂️

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9 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Front page of the Times has carried the news that the 2nd tourist is a doctor in the GRU.

I am going to keep going until Rewulf accepts the colour of this particular glass of orange juice :lol:

Well if the Times says so it must be unequivocably  true I suppose ? :hmm:

And where did the Times get this information ?

If I told you i had done some digging on open source websites, and had come up with possible explanation of events, would you believe me ?
What if my explanation was printed in the Times, backed up by 'proof' that only I had the sources to ?
Would that make it rock solid, undeniable truth.

YOU dont know anything about it, so stop pretending that you do.
You are accepting the story, and the evidence that backs it up, even the UK government arent backing up Bellingcats story, WHY ?

Who are Bellingcat ?
Are they impartial, who funds them, why does our media believe every word they say ?
How can the combined might of our intelligence services, our own media, with its vast resources , not seem able to do what Bellingcat can do ?
Stop obsessing about what I think.
Do some thinking for yourself.

http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/so-how-is-bellingcat-funded/

https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Bellingcat

http://www.basfeijen.nl/newcoldwar/bellingcat.htm


"For instance, Bellingcat regularly works with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which – according to the late journalist Robert Parry – “engages in ‘investigative journalism’ that usually goes after governments that have fallen into disfavor with the United States and then are singled out for accusations of corruption.” OCCRP is notably funded by USAID and the controversial George Soros-funded Open Society Foundations. 

In addition, Bellingcat’s founder Elliott Higgins is employed by the Atlantic Council, which is partially funded by the U.S. State Department, NATO and U.S. weapons manufacturers. It should come as little surprise then that the results of Bellingcat’s “findings” often fit neatly with narratives promoted by NATO and the U.S. government despite their poor track record in terms of accuracy. "

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Yes, you're right. I am going to write a stiff letter to the Times about their journalistic and editorial standards. I will direct them to the alternative news sites you suggest and then perhaps we can all learn the real truth eh?

So, we're still ignoring the unique Russian nerve agent, the 2 Russians tourists who work for the GRU and who stayed in London but to visit Salisbury Cathedral, the 5 return flights separately booked and the attempt on the life of someone Putin would happily see dead, and instead we're focusing on one of the investigate journalist organisations that has added the latest piece to the puzzle.

I wonder is there anything that would convince you of Russian culpability? Just asking...

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3 hours ago, henry d said:

From Saturday 6pm until Tuesday 10-30ish and still we have 1/2 a page of the same old... 🤦‍♂️

Worth reading then 🙂

37 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

 

YOU dont know anything about it, so stop pretending that you do.
You are accepting the story, and the evidence that backs it up, even the UK government arent backing up Bellingcats story, WHY ?

Because they either did not know (worrying) or they use the same sources (quickly diminishing) or they know but dont want to confirm they know. It's not what you know that matters it's not even what you know you don't know, its what others know you know or don't know. Either way i dont know :lol:

 

What we need now are details of the cloaking agent for the novichok and the relationship with Amesbury.

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3 minutes ago, oowee said:

 

What we need now are details of the cloaking agent for the novichok and the relationship with Amesbury.

The Amesbury incident is one of the plot holes, Rowley cant remember where he found the 'sealed' bottle, OK the man is a substance abuser and his memory is suspect, but its an important detail. 
If you couldnt put the GRU tourists where it was found, it creates a problem with the narrative, as does Skripals movements on the Sunday morning.
If he never went home after leaving at 9am, he never got exposed.
He doesnt seem to want to clarify ? Why? Is he even still alive ?

As far as what proof I would require to make me believe it was ordered by Putin ?
I would say, plausible explanations for some of these plot holes, no one has yet explained how this 'very deadly' and 'very pure' nerve toxin only killed 20 % of people exposed.
Time from exposure to symptoms, and inconsistencies with that.

Even if its proved that the tourists were GRU , what if theres an alternative explanation ?
What if Skripal was thinking about going back to Russia, and they were his contacts ?
That would at least explain the high ranks for a risky wet job, maybe they went to meet him and he didnt show up to the rendezvous. (A possible reason for their lack of stealth ?)
Is it possible that the British security services clocked them coming in, or intercepted communications ? (Did UK security have problems with Skripal going back, was he a security risk ?)
Maybe we used an incapacitating agent on Skripal and his daughter, and told them the Russians had tried to kill them.
Then used the whole situation to embarrass Russia ?

Thats  a ton of maybes  I know, but it would explain so many of the discrepancies in the story.

 

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Well if the Times says so it must be unequivocably  true I suppose ? :hmm:

And where did the Times get this information ?

If I told you i had done some digging on open source websites, and had come up with possible explanation of events, would you believe me ?
What if my explanation was printed in the Times, backed up by 'proof' that only I had the sources to ?
Would that make it rock solid, undeniable truth.

YOU dont know anything about it, so stop pretending that you do.
You are accepting the story, and the evidence that backs it up, even the UK government arent backing up Bellingcats story, WHY ?

Who are Bellingcat ?
Are they impartial, who funds them, why does our media believe every word they say ?
How can the combined might of our intelligence services, our own media, with its vast resources , not seem able to do what Bellingcat can do ?
Stop obsessing about what I think.
Do some thinking for yourself.

http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/so-how-is-bellingcat-funded/

https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Bellingcat

http://www.basfeijen.nl/newcoldwar/bellingcat.htm


"For instance, Bellingcat regularly works with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which – according to the late journalist Robert Parry – “engages in ‘investigative journalism’ that usually goes after governments that have fallen into disfavor with the United States and then are singled out for accusations of corruption.” OCCRP is notably funded by USAID and the controversial George Soros-funded Open Society Foundations. 

In addition, Bellingcat’s founder Elliott Higgins is employed by the Atlantic Council, which is partially funded by the U.S. State Department, NATO and U.S. weapons manufacturers. It should come as little surprise then that the results of Bellingcat’s “findings” often fit neatly with narratives promoted by NATO and the U.S. government despite their poor track record in terms of accuracy. "

Your first link is a piece by Marcel van den Berg which is a blog trying to discredit any Russian involvement MH17 plenty of conflict of interest there and no fact checking in what he says is true or who he even is.

Your second is Wikispooks god knows who edited that or their agender.  However, one of the citations on that page is Newsbud Breaking News: which states Turkey’s Coup Plotters are Members of NATO’s Rapid Deployable Corps…

The third well its statement “NATO is the military alliance run by the Anglo-American power elite which illegally expanded militarily towards the Russian border since the early 1990s. Russia is being attacked economically by means of sanctions that are based on hypocritical reasons which ignore crucial facts of history.“  Says it all really, we are the evil west in bed with the Americans and NATO is to blame.

It seems odd that you accept that what they say about Bellingcat without seeing any of their bias or if the facts they post are actually true yet you continually dismiss Bellingcat or any view of Russian involvement quite easily.

I have no idea on Bellingcat impartiality and it doesn't really matter if the two people are who they say they are, but the three links you have posted are anti-NATO pro-Russian in the extreme and do not try to hide it. You can see bias one way but not the other that is what hurts your argument here.

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3 minutes ago, timps said:

Your first link is a piece by Marcel van den Berg which is a blog trying to discredit any Russian involvement MH17 plenty of conflict of interest there and no fact checking in what he says is true or who he even is.

"While I did not do research on the funding and financial situation of Bellingcat, some details are public. I like to encourage everyone to do research."
I quoted the link to point out how Bellingcat cant possibly be impartial.
The fact that Bellingcat produced much of what the conclusions of the JIT concluded  'impartially' makes hilarious reading.

7 minutes ago, timps said:

Your second is Wikispooks god knows who edited that or their agender.  However, one of the citations on that page is Newsbud Breaking News: which states Turkey’s Coup Plotters are Members of NATO’s Rapid Deployable Corps…

The relevent parts of that link were in the way Bellingcat have manipulated supposed 'open source' passport information, and the nuances of Russian to UK visa apps.
To question their agenda as a source is a strange thing to do , when you dont question Bellingcats ?

11 minutes ago, timps said:

he third well its statement “NATO is the military alliance run by the Anglo-American power elite which illegally expanded militarily towards the Russian border since the early 1990s. Russia is being attacked economically by means of sanctions that are based on hypocritical reasons which ignore crucial facts of history.“  Says it all really, we are the evil west in bed with the Americans and NATO is to blame.

Again , despite the obvious translation issues from the original, the idea was to question Bellingcats modus operandi ,and the driving force behind it, you dont have to agree with every part of it, just accept there  is a very large probability that Bellingcat are just an (expendable ) arm of western governments anti Russian interests.

"Image forensics expert Jens Kriese calls Bellingcat's method "Kaffeesatzleserei". In other words, it's idle speculation. Bellingcat's way of working goes something like this: something bad happened, Russia did it, let's find evidence that fits with this conclusion." 

Bellingcat works alongside and is funded by NATO , Soros NGOs, and other quasi political and western governmental think tanks.
Its claims of impartiality and being unbiased are simply ridiculous.

6 minutes ago, henry d said:

Nah, I`m out, however if we could recycle all that tin foil we would be quids in.

Good , you werent adding anything constructive.

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

While I did not do research on the funding and financial situation of Bellingcat, some details are public. I like to encourage everyone to do research."
I quoted the link to point out how Bellingcat cant possibly be impartial.
The fact that Bellingcat produced much of what the conclusions of the JIT concluded  'impartially' makes hilarious reading.

How does the link point that out ? the fella that posted it is clearly not impartial and have you done what he has suggested and checked it out or just taken what he has said as verbatim? he doesn’t show any proof at all on that page about Bellingcat impartiality.

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

The relevent parts of that link were in the way Bellingcat have manipulated supposed 'open source' passport information, and the nuances of Russian to UK visa apps.
To question their agenda as a source is a strange thing to do , when you dont question Bellingcats ?

How are they relevant? You know this to be true because of what proof ? it has clearly been edited by a pro Russian at some point so the impartiality of that page is zero.

My point was you don’t believe Bellingcat because they are not impartial in your eyes but you believe others when they are clearly not impartial as well, the only difference is their views suit your narrative.

In my defence I did say  “I have no idea on Bellingcat impartiality and it doesn't really matter if the two people are who they say they are,”… I stand by that, regardless of agenda or who paid for it, if the two Russians are who Bellingcat says they are then impartiality is irrelevant, they are on false passports and the Russians must have known that they weren’t who they said they were when they paraded them on tv.

You refuse to see flaws or plot holes in your own argument, by your own words you would still  will not believe the Russian tourist had anything to do with it even if it was proven to your standards that they were in fact members of the GRU. You would prefer to believe other explanations no matter how far fetched as more believable.

No one here is ever going to convince you, you just think bellingcat has been really fortunate in finding two doppelgangers that work for the GRU that look just like two Russian tourists.   

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1 hour ago, timps said:

How does the link point that out ? the fella that posted it is clearly not impartial and have you done what he has suggested and checked it out or just taken what he has said as verbatim? he doesn’t show any proof at all on that page about Bellingcat impartiality.

How are they relevant? You know this to be true because of what proof ? it has clearly been edited by a pro Russian at some point so the impartiality of that page is zero.

My point was you don’t believe Bellingcat because they are not impartial in your eyes but you believe others when they are clearly not impartial as well, the only difference is their views suit your narrative.

In my defence I did say  “I have no idea on Bellingcat impartiality and it doesn't really matter if the two people are who they say they are,”… I stand by that, regardless of agenda or who paid for it, if the two Russians are who Bellingcat says they are then impartiality is irrelevant, they are on false passports and the Russians must have known that they weren’t who they said they were when they paraded them on tv.

You refuse to see flaws or plot holes in your own argument, by your own words you would still  will not believe the Russian tourist had anything to do with it even if it was proven to your standards that they were in fact members of the GRU. You would prefer to believe other explanations no matter how far fetched as more believable.

No one here is ever going to convince you, you just think bellingcat has been really fortunate in finding two doppelgangers that work for the GRU that look just like two Russian tourists.   

 

Nailed it ☝️

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2 hours ago, timps said:

How does the link point that out ?

now that i have u on the line, im curious: has Bellingcat taken money from any govt or any group thats taken money from a govt

 

Bellingcat has received money from the following:
OSF
Meedan
NED
Google
Adessium
Crowdfunding

Its all in the link, Eliot Higgins has publicly admitted recieving money from the above vendors, he's also admitted being a member of a NATO funded and controlled organisation, so it's not actually conjecture is it ?

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55 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Its all in the link, Eliot Higgins has publicly admitted recieving money from the above vendors, he's also admitted being a member of a NATO funded and controlled organisation, so it's not actually conjecture is it ?

As I said how does the above prove he is not impartial or is google trying to overthrow the Russian government as well? Bellingcat has gone into great detail what the money was for and the reasons why he accepted it and why he is still impartial, so yes his impartiality is still open to conjecture, whether you believe him or not is another matter.  But the above link doesn’t prove it one way or the other.

To take your logic I shouldn’t believe the he has accepted money as it was posted on a pro-Russian site, it is not impartial so it must be fake. The facts are he did regardless of where it is posted the narrative is does this mean he makes up stories and evidence to make the Russians look bad.

I don’t doubt he has an agenda all news outlets do,  you are not going to sell many papers or get many hits on a website for bland news, proving it was the Russians sells better than it wasn’t them.  However, the facts do not change regardless of side only the narrative.

 The question is are those 2 people GRU agents?

Let’s be honest getting 2 tourists that look identical to GRU agents are ridiculously long odds which Russia hasn’t proved is a lie yet.

The narrative which is dependent on side of the argument you are on is did they go to kill or look at churches.

Most normal people realise you don’t need a false passport to go and look at churches and as of yet I am not subscribing to the free Russian citizens from the oppressive NATO tyranny keeping them captive story.

Edited by timps
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11 hours ago, timps said:

As I said how does the above prove he is not impartial or is google trying to overthrow the Russian government as well? Bellingcat has gone into great detail what the money was for and the reasons why he accepted it and why he is still impartial, so yes his impartiality is still open to conjecture, whether you believe him or not is another matter.  But the above link doesn’t prove it one way or the other.

To take your logic I shouldn’t believe the he has accepted money as it was posted on a pro-Russian site, it is not impartial so it must be fake. The facts are he did regardless of where it is posted the narrative is does this mean he makes up stories and evidence to make the Russians look bad.

I don’t doubt he has an agenda all news outlets do,  you are not going to sell many papers or get many hits on a website for bland news, proving it was the Russians sells better than it wasn’t them.  However, the facts do not change regardless of side only the narrative.

 The question is are those 2 people GRU agents?

Let’s be honest getting 2 tourists that look identical to GRU agents are ridiculously long odds which Russia hasn’t proved is a lie yet.

The narrative which is dependent on side of the argument you are on is did they go to kill or look at churches.

Most normal people realise you don’t need a false passport to go and look at churches and as of yet I am not subscribing to the free Russian citizens from the oppressive NATO tyranny keeping them captive story.

 

Nailed it, again ☝️

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12 hours ago, pinfireman said:

 

I see the tin foil hat brigade are still standing firm! You will never convince them, because they do not WANT to be convinced!. 

Actually ,youre wrong, I do want to be convinced it was the Russians, its just that the media, government and PW arent doing a very good job of it :lol:
Not that it matters whether Im convinced or not , why on earth would you care ?
Its just as easy to believe what you are happy with, and any one else with a counter opinion is a lunatic.

Just be aware that there will be a reason why all this has happened, look at the media reports of how now Russia is trying to break up the EU , how much of a threat they have become.
Again, I am not pro Russian in any way shape or form, but there is a very clear agenda at work here.
It remains to be seen what that may be .

 We have had 15 years of the war on terror.
We have had al quaeda, ISIS ect , they are largely 'defeated' and the west now needs a new bogeyman, a new 'threat'
But is it a real threat ? Whilst sabres are being rattled , pipelines to Russia are being built, multi billion £ contracts are being signed, weapons systems are being delivered, threats are being issued and ignored.
Its just a layer of smoke and mirrors.
If you cant see that now , Im sure you will in time.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/09/vladimir-putin-divide-europe-skripal-russia

https://imrussia.org/en/book-reviews/2671-what-the-west-can-do-about-putin’s-master-plan


When our politicians start talking about staying in the EU , to stand united against Russian ' aggression, then you might start to doubt how impartial the investigations around certain events were.

14 hours ago, timps said:

As I said how does the above prove he is not impartial

 

14 hours ago, timps said:

Bellingcat has gone into great detail what the money was for and the reasons why he accepted it and why he is still impartial, so yes his impartiality is still open to conjecture

 

14 hours ago, timps said:

I don’t doubt he has an agenda all news outlets do,  you are not going to sell many papers or get many hits on a website for bland news, proving it was the Russians sells better than it wasn’t them.  However, the facts do not change regardless of side only the narrative.

I think you are confused, is he impartial or not ?

The facts are provided by Bellingcat, the British government ,despite reports to the contrary, have not confirmed his findings.
So are the facts open to scrutiny, or do we just have to trust Bellingcats unbiased fact finding ?

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

I think you are confused, is he impartial or not ?

The facts are provided by Bellingcat, the British government ,despite reports to the contrary, have not confirmed his findings.
So are the facts open to scrutiny, or do we just have to trust Bellingcats unbiased fact finding ?

Not confused at all, I said “ As I said how does the above prove he is not impartial”

I am just using your argument back at you, the burden of proof you require about his impartiality and the burden of proof needed for the tourists guilt are poles apart. You have no PROOF he is not impartial but accept that he is, however, you require a signed affidavit from Putin before you will accept the tourists guilt.

To answer your question do I think he is impartial, no I don’t, do I think he has falsified and made up evidence to demonise genuine church loving Russian tourists at the behest of his NATO masters, no I don’t, do I have proof of either, no I don’t.

As I said the media is never impartial on the narrative they all have a story to chase, however the evidence put in front of me is quite compelling regardless of agenda.

Of course the facts are open to scrutiny and the BBC have done just that.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45801154?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c0j915myy8kt/russian-spy-poisoning&link_location=live-reporting-story


The BBC has contacted two people who knew Dr Mishkin as a child in Loyga in the north of Russia, and they confirmed from photographs that he was the man seen in images released by police after the Salisbury attack.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45799037

BBC Russian tracked down the parents' marriage certificate: Yevgeny and Tatiana Mishkin were married in 1978 in Loyga.
In fact BBC Russian discovered that in 2007, Mr Mishkin was registered as living at 12 Academic Lebedev Street in St Petersburg. According to Google Maps, the building is next to the Military Medical Academy, where most Russian military doctors do their training.

I know this won’t convince you as the BBC get their money from the British government as well.
 

Edited by timps
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15 hours ago, pinfireman said:

Then it,s a ruddy duck!

I see the tin foil hat brigade are still standing firm! You will never convince them, because they do not WANT to be convinced!.  Take a horse to water etc etc...................

In this thread we have had reference to chicken, horse, duck and orange juice. I think turkey as well 

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30 minutes ago, timps said:

Not confused at all, I said “ As I said how does the above prove he is not impartial”

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/about/experts/list/eliot-higgins

A member of a NATO think tank since 2015 ?
Virtually everything Bellingcat does is anti Russian, what proof do you need ?

34 minutes ago, timps said:

To answer your question do I think he is impartial, no I don’t, do I think he has falsified and made up evidence to demonise genuine church loving Russian tourists at the behest of his NATO masters, no I don’t, do I have proof of either, no I don’t.

But you are ok with his 'fact finding' and his conclusions ?

 

35 minutes ago, timps said:

The BBC has contacted two people who knew Dr Mishkin as a child in Loyga in the north of Russia, and they confirmed from photographs that he was the man seen in images released by police after the Salisbury attack.

Saw it on BBC news last night , reporter goes to remote innaccessable by car Russian village (apparently without an FSB minder and completely unmolested by local banditry ), complete with dilapidated buildings and obligatory man dragging a milk churn up a dirt path, the only thing missing was solemn soviet chanting music in the background.
Bedraggled man at side of road - 'Is this Dr Mishkin? , Oh yes thats Sasha ' he replies in Russian - Case closed 😄

8 minutes ago, AVB said:

In this thread we have had reference to chicken, horse, duck and orange juice. I think turkey as well 

Dont forgets Fruit cake , nuts and crackers for afters too :good:

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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

A member of a NATO think tank since 2015 ?

And yet again how does this membership prove he falsified evidence, not impartial? 
I have been on a few advisory panels in construction to give an opposing/independent view, it didn’t mean I agreed with the panels views or aims or that my advice was ever taken.
You do realise you live in a NATO country so by your logic you are also not impartial and anti-Russian?
 

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Virtually everything Bellingcat does is anti Russian, what proof do you need ?

Impartial and independent proof and percentage of all Bellingcat articles that are anti-Russian please?

You see were I am going with this, you require proof to counter your view but none to support it.

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

But you are ok with his 'fact finding' and his conclusions ?


Yes I am ok with his fact finding, like I have said before facts are the same the narrative is not.

If a left wing anti-monarchist media outlet said Princesses Diana was dead do I not believe them because of their agenda, is she still alive because they are not impartial? Now if the narrative is Prince Charles or the Queen ordered the hit then yes I require a bit more proof but the fact Diana is dead does not. 


Are you ok with the official story given of two gay Russian tourists going to look at a church, who are really rubbish at booking return flights and they have doppelgangers in the GRU?


That’s my point really, the official Russian story did not add up, so people looked into it and found out why. If the Russians hadn’t tried to hysterically cover it up maybe I wouldn’t be so believing of Bellingcat but the stupid official Russian cover up spoke volumes. They had something to hide.
 

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Saw it on BBC news last night , reporter goes to remote innaccessable by car Russian village (apparently without an FSB minder and completely unmolested by local banditry ), complete with dilapidated buildings and obligatory man dragging a milk churn up a dirt path, the only thing missing was solemn soviet chanting music in the background.
Bedraggled man at side of road - 'Is this Dr Mishkin? , Oh yes thats Sasha ' he replies in Russian - Case closed 😄

Ahhhh I see completely made up by the BBC and debunked by you in seconds with no proof or fact checking on your part. You do realise they edit and film stories for dramatic effect there will be a lot more boring background research to that piece not caught on camera and the last bit will be staged for film.

 

Edited by timps
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