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Grand solar minimum?


bluesj
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Are we heading in to an ice age or not?

Some say that the planet is warming, the Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting and glaciers around the world are shrinking!

Others say that the planet is actually cooling and the ice sheets and glaciers are growing, and that we are heading in to an ice age like that in the 1600s or late1700's early 1800's and it could really start to show this year!

So what is going to happen, should I get a new coat or shorts and flip flops? 

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1 hour ago, bluesj said:

Are we heading in to an ice age or not?

Some say that the planet is warming, the Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting and glaciers around the world are shrinking!

Others say that the planet is actually cooling and the ice sheets and glaciers are growing, and that we are heading in to an ice age like that in the 1600s or late1700's early 1800's and it could really start to show this year!

So what is going to happen, should I get a new coat or shorts and flip flops? 

It will be both, I can be pretty certain of that.

Not sure in which order or when but it will deffo happen

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6 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Climate change is controlled by the sun, no amount of co2 pumped out by humans is going to change that anywhere but at the margins.

I tend to agree with you, sure it used to be that co2 levels followed temperature not the other way round. Some scientist are saying that the sun is in some ways changed by the action of the planets in particular the gas giants 

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12 hours ago, bluesj said:

Are we heading in to an ice age or not?

Some say that the planet is warming, the Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting and glaciers around the world are shrinking!

Others say that the planet is actually cooling and the ice sheets and glaciers are growing, and that we are heading in to an ice age like that in the 1600s or late1700's early 1800's and it could really start to show this year!

So what is going to happen, should I get a new coat or shorts and flip flops?

Technically speaking we are still in the Quaternary Ice Age (commenced at the end of the Pliocene era / start of the Quaternary era, circa 2.6 million years ago) as both polar caps still have glacial coverage, albeit currently undergoing an interglacial period known as the Holocene Period.


 

8 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Climate change is controlled by the sun, no amount of co2 pumped out by humans is going to change that anywhere but at the margins.

And again, getting technical, the sun (variations in solar output) is but one controlling factor affecting the relationship between glacial / interglacial periods. Others include: the composition of our atmosphere, changes to the orbital cycle of the Earth, tectonic plate movement, volcanism, orbital dynamics of the Earth / Moon.

 

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8 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Climate change is controlled by the sun, no amount of co2 pumped out by humans is going to change that anywhere but at the margins.

But here lies the problem they can't tax the sun so everyone with a 4x4 will be blamed 

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18 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Climate change is controlled by the sun, no amount of co2 pumped out by humans is going to change that anywhere but at the margins.

Man made climate change or not, it is demonstrably and irrefutably untrue to say that  co2 has no effect on climate change.

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So what about methane then. Cows are now supposed to be at the root of all climatological evil.

Until comparatively recently the north America land mass shuddered under the thundering hooves of tens of millions of buffalo. Africa groaned under the weight of big game animals.

Did none of them ****. Most of these large herbivores have now gone so surely there should be a reduction in animal produced gasses.

Or could it be that the notion of animal flatulence affecting global warming is just so much hot air?

 

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Most of the methane comes from the veggies, you know those telling us not to eat meat because the beasts create methane.  If we do what they suggest and free them they will breed exponentially and increase gas production.   To many scientists and politico have a vested interest so they need someone to blame.

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Agreed! But I`m fascinated by the psychology behind the whole thing and the way in which otherwise intelligent people swallow the carp put forward by the global warming industry.

We are constantly being told that , for instance, the the poor old elephant is in a precarious position ecologically and that it`s numbers have been decimated. We know, when we stop and think about it, that there were once hundreds of millions more large herbivores on the planet. Bison, saiga, and plains game of all types.

Why was there no global warming when these herbivore numbers were at their greatest?

The global warming industry has no answer to this question in the same way that it cannot ascribe a human component to all the other historical rises or falls in temperature, that have occurred in the past.

 

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12 minutes ago, mudpatten said:

Agreed! But I`m fascinated by the psychology behind the whole thing and the way in which otherwise intelligent people swallow the carp put forward by the global warming industry.

We are constantly being told that , for instance, the the poor old elephant is in a precarious position ecologically and that it`s numbers have been decimated. We know, when we stop and think about it, that there were once hundreds of millions more large herbivores on the planet. Bison, saiga, and plains game of all types.

Why was there no global warming when these herbivore numbers were at their greatest?

The global warming industry has no answer to this question in the same way that it cannot ascribe a human component to all the other historical rises or falls in temperature, that have occurred in the past.

 

I am unsure if yours is a willful misinterpretation or not?

No one denies that global warming / climate change has not been part of the regular cycle of the Earth when measured over geological periods. Analysis of ice cores and ocean sediment cores have proven this beyond doubt. The point is that, at this point in time, global average temperatures are rising faster than they have ever done in the past (again as evidenced by geological, chemical and paleontological analysis); an acceleration that scientifically cannot be linked to Milankovitch Cycles, Solar output variance, volcanism or oceanic currents. This by default leaves atmospheric composition, which is something that we most certainly DO have an impact on. In fact, there is a paper from 2009 which highlights that, whilst Solar Insolation likely provides the initial trigger for interglacial periods, it is atmospheric composition which affects the magnitude of that change. If you follow that through logically (We affect atmosphere, atmosphere affects interglaciation) you can see that there is a direct causal link between us and global temperature rises.

Your argument that "there were more elephants in the past, therefore global warming is a hoax" is, in a word, nonsensical. Current estimates put the global beef and dairy herd at around 1.5 BILLION animals, and that is just cows. Factor in pigs, goats, sheep, llamas and all the rest and we have more herbivores than we have ever had.

Where I will concede that there is still room for discussion is the extent of our impact, and how we might lessen it, that still requires further (scientific) investigation.

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17 minutes ago, Jonno243 said:

I am unsure if yours is a willful misinterpretation or not?

No one denies that global warming / climate change has not been part of the regular cycle of the Earth when measured over geological periods. Analysis of ice cores and ocean sediment cores have proven this beyond doubt. The point is that, at this point in time, global average temperatures are rising faster than they have ever done in the past (again as evidenced by geological, chemical and paleontological analysis); an acceleration that scientifically cannot be linked to Milankovitch Cycles, Solar output variance, volcanism or oceanic currents. This by default leaves atmospheric composition, which is something that we most certainly DO have an impact on. In fact, there is a paper from 2009 which highlights that, whilst Solar Insolation likely provides the initial trigger for interglacial periods, it is atmospheric composition which affects the magnitude of that change. If you follow that through logically (We affect atmosphere, atmosphere affects interglaciation) you can see that there is a direct causal link between us and global temperature rises.

Your argument that "there were more elephants in the past, therefore global warming is a hoax" is, in a word, nonsensical. Current estimates put the global beef and dairy herd at around 1.5 BILLION animals, and that is just cows. Factor in pigs, goats, sheep, llamas and all the rest and we have more herbivores than we have ever had.

Where I will concede that there is still room for discussion is the extent of our impact, and how we might lessen it, that still requires further (scientific) investigation.

I think that is part of the problem no one has enough real data to say what is happening. The starting point has a big bearing on if the temperature is going up or down,  from 6 months ago its going down, from around 2013 its going down, from the late 70's its going up from the 1930's its going down.  from the early 1800's its going up. 3000 years ago it was colder, 6000 years ago it was hotter 9000 years ago it was about the same.

We are closer to the coldest the world has been and the lowest co2 than we are the highest. Plants need around 300 ppm of co2 we are at around 400 ppm at the moment humans can breath and live (and do) levels of upto 5000ppm (space station limit) and even 8000ppm (subs limit)

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31 minutes ago, Jonno243 said:

 The point is that, at this point in time, global average temperatures are rising faster than they have ever done in the past (again as evidenced by geological, chemical and paleontological analysis); an acceleration that scientifically cannot be linked to Milankovitch Cycles, Solar output variance, volcanism or oceanic currents.

At the end of the younger Dryas, gobal temperatures increased an estimated 10 C in 40 or 50 years as evidenced by ice cores which exceeds the current 'warming' rate.

Global temperatures over the last 2000 years below, we are only just coming out of a cold period (little ice age) and are nowhere as warm for as long as the planet has been previously when the Vikings colonised Greenland.

The current warming is well within global norms, it is simply the first time it has happened when modern people have measured the temperatures with thermometers and then had time on their hands to worry about it.

 

 

 

2000-years-of-global-temperature.jpg

gisp-last-10000-new.png

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