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JohnfromUK
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14 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-economic-impact-of-Boris-Johnsons-Brexit-proposals.pdf

"As with all forecasts, the findings of this report should be used with caution. We have set out explicitly our assumptions and highlighted the many uncertainties involved in producing forecasts of long-term economic performance. The forecasts give an indication of the scale of the impact of Mr Johnson’s proposals. Our main insight is that his proposals sit somewhere in between Mrs May’s deal and a WTO scenario in terms of negative economic impact. The impact on income per capita is negative in all scenarios, but Mr Johnson’s proposals would be more damaging than Mrs May’s deal."

Make of it what you will. 

 

So in less than 24 hours, using the text of the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT they have produced an in depth study of how the completely unknown TRADE AGREEMENT will affect the UK and NI, perhaps they could predict the effect on the EU while they were there too?

Or predict tomorrow nights lotto numbers by analysis of last week's? 

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19 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

So in less than 24 hours, using the text of the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT they have produced an in depth study of how the completely unknown TRADE AGREEMENT will affect the UK and NI, perhaps they could predict the effect on the EU while they were there too?

Or predict tomorrow nights lotto numbers by analysis of last week's? 

Its amazing isn't it, they must be very good!

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Something simply HAD to give because of the Ireland and Northern Ireland ultra complexity that would otherwise continue smashing onto the rocks.

They could have told the EU and Irish government we will not be putting up a hard border, if you want to feel free. No Irish government would put a hard border in place, they called the British governments bluff  and won. 

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2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

So in less than 24 hours, using the text of the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT they have produced an in depth study of how the completely unknown TRADE AGREEMENT will affect the UK and NI, perhaps they could predict the effect on the EU while they were there too?

Or predict tomorrow nights lotto numbers by analysis of last week's? 

They do predict the effect on the EU, but you didn't bother to look at it did you? Because it would be too difficult for you to question how the modelling was done, I suppose? Or to find alternative opinion or research that might refute the conclusions drawn by the King's College researchers? I though so. It's always the way. You live in a fact free zone and your response to anything that smacks of actual data that might not suit your agenda is to sneer at it from afar.

But never mind. I think that hardcore Brexiters and the Tory Party need to own this utter shambles, and certainly without the added cover of a second referendum win or any Parliamentary delays. It is just possible that you might veer towards something sensible when confronted with the realities of NTBs with the EU but it that's doubtful probably. Sometimes things have to get worse before they can improve. Wer nicht hören will, muss fühlen, as the Germans say.

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On 17/10/2019 at 12:24, Raja Clavata said:

Can we just agree in principle that if the current deal does not get passed by Parliament then an acceptable confirmatory referendum would be a public choice between leaving with no deal and remain?

I can't remember when I voted to leave it was to be only done with a deal.  We had a vote to stay or go, as far as I'm concerned nothing has changed. Leave without  a deal would have been the icing on the cake if it was part of the leave vote.

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6 hours ago, Retsdon said:

I see what you mean. Bu I think in the end it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and prejudice does increase - and that's not the fault of the audience either. Take Mark Carney and his 'prediction' of economic damage from a No result in the Brexit poll. He's widely vilified for scare-mongering because what he actually said was totally misrepresented. He said 'there might be a possibility ' of a no vote having a negative economic impact. That's nothing like the same thing as a prediction, and yet that's how it was spun - by both sides. How can the audience decide anything at all properly when they're deliberately being misinformed and manipulated in this kind of way all the time

Anyway, we'll see what happens with Johnson's deal. From what I can make out he got his agreement so quickly by simply caving in to every EU demand. The Irish Sea border was the EU's preferred position at the outset, and as long as two years ago they were throwing the UK the bone of 'an FTA 'anytime'. And what they mean by that is that you can go out and the door will lock behind you.Then we'll see what you're prepared to give up to get a foot back inside again. (don't start building fishing boats anytime soon)

So it would seem that Johnson and his coterie have either been trussed up like chickens or else they've deliberately sacrificed the country's future welfare on the alter of their own ambition. As the whole lot are both shallow and mendacious it's difficult to know which to choose. Probably an even split.

You make it sound as if people were undecided on which way to vote until we were actually given the referendum. Do you seriously believe that anyone listened to, or even more apt, believed what anyone told them regarding the scaremongering or whatever it was that was written in the bus? I had made up my mind which way I would vote, if given the chance, years before it actually happened. 
I doubt much of the pro or anti rhetoric seriously effected anyone’s choice. 
It’s irrelevant what Carney or anyone else claimed as its clear the scaremongering fell on deaf ears. 

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35 minutes ago, figgy said:

I can't remember when I voted to leave it was to be only done with a deal.  We had a vote to stay or go, as far as I'm concerned nothing has changed. Leave without  a deal would have been the icing on the cake if it was part of the leave vote.

No deal, icing on the cake. Fair enough.

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32 minutes ago, Scully said:

You make it sound as if people were undecided on which way to vote until we were actually given the referendum. Do you seriously believe that anyone listened to, or even more apt, believed what anyone told them regarding the scaremongering or whatever it was that was written in the bus? I had made up my mind which way I would vote, if given the chance, years before it actually happened. 
I doubt much of the pro or anti rhetoric seriously effected anyone’s choice. 
It’s irrelevant what Carney or anyone else claimed as its clear the scaremongering fell on deaf ears. 

Dominic Cummings stated that about a third were always going to vote leave, a third remain and it was the other swingable third that the leave campaign targeted. He is on record saying this and there are YouTube videos of his post referendum roadshow.

I started out in the leave camp but fortunately corrected my understanding of the situation in time to vote remain in the referendum 😛 

The pro and anti rhetoric didn’t swing my views, I had pretty much equal disdain for both campaigns but I wouldn’t be absolutely confident that was the case for everybody in the swingable third.

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35 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Dominic Cummings stated that about a third were always going to vote leave, a third remain and it was the other swingable third that the leave campaign targeted. He is on record saying this and there are YouTube videos of his post referendum roadshow.

I started out in the leave camp but fortunately corrected my understanding of the situation in time to vote remain in the referendum 😛 

The pro and anti rhetoric didn’t swing my views, I had pretty much equal disdain for both campaigns but I wouldn’t be absolutely confident that was the case for everybody in the swingable third.

If you don't mind two genuine questions.  Why were you originally in favour of leaving? And what changed you mind?

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37 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Dominic Cummings stated that about a third were always going to vote leave, a third remain and it was the other swingable third that the leave campaign targeted. He is on record saying this and there are YouTube videos of his post referendum roadshow.

I started out in the leave camp but fortunately corrected my understanding of the situation in time to vote remain in the referendum 😛 

The pro and anti rhetoric didn’t swing my views, I had pretty much equal disdain for both campaigns but I wouldn’t be absolutely confident that was the case for everybody in the swingable third.

I doubt it was as high as a third. From what I remember the pre referendum polls never gave more than a 5 or 6% advantage to either side.

If the rhetoric did anything it increased the turnout. Not sure it had a lot of effect on how people voted, imo it just solidified people's opinions.

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13 hours ago, Retsdon said:

You live in a fact free zone and your response to anything that smacks of actual data that might not suit your agenda is to sneer at it from afar

Well that touched a nerve didn't it 😂

It's a fact free zone, because there are no Facts. There are opinions based on supposition, swayed by bias. 

Whilst I respect Mr Menons intelligence, he is a remainer, and has dubious funding sources, and he has NO ACTUAL Data, because there isn't any. 

To say that I sneer at it from afar is funny too, because I live here with it, and it's implications, you Sir, do not. 

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7 hours ago, Capt Christopher Jones said:

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You do realise that Boris's deal is the best you can hope for as a remainer? 

Unless of course you are still hanging on to that forlorn hope that the whole thing will be overturned and forgotten about? 

In which case, leaving the EU is the least of your problems. 

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5 minutes ago, ditchman said:

and it goes on an on an on an on

And so it will whilst we have;

  • a minority government
  • an opposition who (despite calling for it almost continuously) won't allow a General Election (and a bizarre law that leaves the choice to the opposition, not the government)
  • a Labour party who despite promising at the 2017 election to support the Brexit vote outcome - have opposed it every inch of the way

A General Election is badly needed - but Labour are frightened because the know they will lose out due to:

  • a dithering and 'shouty' old fool of a leader,
  • a front bench of incompetents such as Abbott, Long-Bailey,
  • policies far to 'lefty' for most normal working people
  • no clear policy on Brexit at all
  • an inability to deal with anti Semitism
  • MPs who (by and large) don't support the lefty 'National Executive Committee' (and vice versa)
  • Weak and unclear policy on defence - especially nuclear
  • Weak and unpopular (especially with core northern and working area Labour voters) policy on immigration
  • Support from many lefty members for terrorist and other protest groups (ALF, LACS, ER etc.)

I understand the the 'Opposition' are meant to oppose .......... but that should not be the case in carrying out a cross party referendum result - on which they have promised to deliver

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17 minutes ago, ditchman said:

and it goes on an on an on an on......................god this is getting tiring...........they are playing a very dangerous game......that could see the electorate "phyisically" turn against them

A lot of parliament are physically turning against them. 

 

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1 minute ago, panoma1 said:

Even Kate Hoey, Labour (I believe that’s her standing in a blue/grey jacket on the RHS opposition benches) is leaving! Lol!

The majority of Labour constituencies voted to leave; virtually all northern and midland Labour (heartland) constituencies voted leave; those Labour constituencies that voted remain are mainly London (Champagne socialists) and Scotland (those who can't stomach wee Jimmy and the SNP).  Corbyn himself has always been a leaver (but now has to do what he is told)

The current Labour 'remain' policy is mainly that of Len McLusky (pays many of Labour's bills and in return expects to set policy), Thornberry (rich Champagne socialist, real name Lady Emily Nugee - hates 'white van man'), Abbott (very high immigrant vote in her constituency and the London's answer to the traditional 'village idiot'), McDonnell, (committed socialist with his own second (holiday) home he tries to keep quiet), (Sir Keir) Starmer (another wealthy lawyer/Champagne socialist).

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2 minutes ago, oowee said:

Can you believe the state of the British PM acting like a child. International embarrassment. 

If someone makes you do something quite contrary to your own judgement and will, it is natural that you should make it clear that it is not your own view.

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