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3 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

 

Just seeing footage of the 737 falling out of the sky, on fire, with debris clearly trailing it as it descends. Hope that's a tragic coincidence too...

It has to be.  Even the Iranians aren’t that stupid.  But the way the plane was falling apart on the way down did give the impression of a missile strike. 

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3 minutes ago, NoBodyImportant said:

True,  but Iran is really trying to win the public relations battle.  I don’t see them shooting down airplanes or seizing oil tankers at least for the next year or so.  

An engine failure on a 737-800 that causes the plane to catch fire and fall from the sky - what's the probability of that compared to foul play scenarios (from any of the sides*)?

*I mention sides as there are not necessarily two sides of players in all this.

Strange turns of events are all part of historical escalations in past conflicts that led to a place nobody wanted to go in the first place.

On a separate note, I reckon the best chance for world peace would be someone "nuking" twitter. You couldn't make it all up really...

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4 hours ago, oowee said:

I have Iran down on my bucket list of countries to visit. Not looking to be anytime soon. 

It's amazing, highly recommend. Really took me by surprise. Tehran is just hideous blocks of concrete, so definitely spread your wings out from there, the people, food and the culture is incredible. Been to some great places but Iran was the one real standout I think in part due to perception of it being hostile & full of religious zealots. Drank a lot of tea, and hard to walk down a street without being invited into every house along it to be fed! A lot of very well educated people there too, and a real fondness for Britain which to say was a surprise was an understatement on my part.

Unfortunately we aren't alone in despairing at our politicians. The people I met without exception (although fairly discretely) made it clear their leaders didn't represent their country. 

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1 hour ago, Dave-G said:

I read somewhere that its the norm for any country that any aircraft crash in to check the box - which puts a different slant on 'refusing'

I cant see how they can refuse to hand it over to a third party, they cant exactly conduct an investigation into it themselves, especially when they may well be responsible ?

Its looking increasingly like the downing of the plane was no accident.

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Someone had a theory on LBC radio yesterday. (I haven't looked into it so not sure how plausible it is).

He said that, where the rockets were launched from, they would have had to travel South East to hit their targets in Iraq. He then went on to say that where the plane went down, was directly S.E. from the rocket launch site.

His theory was maybe in their haste to seek retribution, they didn't make sure the rocket's flight path was clear and maybe they accidentally took out the plane.

 

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3 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

Someone had a theory on LBC radio yesterday. (I haven't looked into it so not sure how plausible it is).

He said that, where the rockets were launched from, they would have had to travel South East to hit their targets in Iraq. He then went on to say that where the plane went down, was directly S.E. from the rocket launch site.

His theory was maybe in their haste to seek retribution, they didn't make sure the rocket's flight path was clear and maybe they accidentally took out the plane.

 

All things being possible, that does sound like an unlikely scenario.

My 2 favourite speculative theories.

Over zealous Iranian air defence around Tehran , expecting retaliation from the earlier strikes on the US bases.

Conspiracy alert ! 
An attempt (by Iran ) to pin ANOTHER airliner shoot down on American forces, by putting a device on board the airliner, set to go off when in range of US air defences, making them look, negligent and callous ?
But said device going off prematurely ?
Without doubt, looking at footage of the wreckage , and wide debris field, looks like that plane was blown apart in the air.


Quite why they would allow civilian air traffic to cross an airspace that had hours before been used for the purposes of missile attack Im not sure, partner this with the fact that US anti missile defences didnt seem to try to counter any of the Iranian ballistic missiles, but thats another story..

7 minutes ago, old man said:

Can't quite imagine that it's just as easy as getting the screwdriver out?

Me neither.

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26 minutes ago, old man said:

Can't quite imagine that it's just as easy as getting the screwdriver out?

Indeed - what I was getting at is they'd need time to examine it for themselves first - to see why this happened in their country - which I suggest is their right to do so.

I'm sure copies could then be passed out... but just having had a major rift with USA I'd imagine its fair to say they'd be thinking F- you America - and American companies.

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It has to be either:

  • A missile strike - most likely
  • A bomb - less likely
  • Or engine parts going through the wing / fuselage - highly unlikely

If the former then Iran would do well just to 'fess up as a tragic mistake.

Edited by Raja Clavata
edit: posted before following Rewulf's link
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The pic of the missile section is interesting although at the end of the day it's just a pic and therefore could be spoofed.

However, it is indeed the seeker head and front canards of a SA-15 sure enough, and it being there and in one piece is plausible since the main charge blows it off in one section to allow the fragmentation section located behind to plume onto the target.

 

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