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19 hours ago, Medic1281 said:

Oh well, I’ve ordered it today so let’s see what happens!! 

Please keep us informed of how you get on with it, even if this thread has turned into a debate on the merits of the government’s current EV policy! 😄

On that note, I saw a youtube video recently pointing out that people have this range anxiety wrong, for the most part.

Basically, as the ‘fuel station’ is at home, there’s no reason  (other than laziness) that you can’t leave the house every morning with a full ‘tank’.  After all I suspect most of us put our phones on charge last thing at night, having finished reading Pigeonwatch…  This covers the alluded to 70mile emergency trip.

Now obviously, there are some problems with this from a UK perspective; on-street parking being the main one.  It isn’t easy but certainly not insurmountable.  There are plenty of US cities where on-street parking is the only option, and plenty of Eastern European apartment buildings where the residents have rely on on-street parking too.  I’m currently working in the former East Germany, and on my way to work this morning I passed block after block of concrete flats with only on-street parking.  So, market demand for solutions to this problem is there.

The biggest failure with this policy of not selling any new internal-combustion engine cars from 2035, is that the government has no strategy for where the extra required generation capacity will come from.  So, for instance, a network of large batteries all wanting charging at night means we could finally get away from the appalling waste of money that is subsiding wind farms not to put energy into the grid.

One thing is for sure; if you have a son or daughter that’s unsure what to do for a career, encourage them to become an electrician.  Charging points, PV installations, the demand for ‘smart’ homes, and all the other associated infrastructure, means that it’s going to be an in-demand profession for the next 20 years at least.
 

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42 minutes ago, 243deer said:

hello, it looks a very interesting project and by all accounts secured a good deal despite the backlash from the Main car manufactures 

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So what about a large number of people that can only just afford to run an older car, when these EV cars become affordable to them the battery replacement cost will prohibit them from having a car. Not everyone has the spare money to buy new. 

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15 minutes ago, B725 said:

So what about a large number of people that can only just afford to run an older car, when these EV cars become affordable to them the battery replacement cost will prohibit them from having a car. Not everyone has the spare money to buy new. 

Motoring will change. The Audi salesman yesterday was saying how Audi are looking at every car of a model will be identical off the production line Bar colour, and then the dealer will be able to turn the extras on and off via subscription. And people won’t be owning cars, they’ll just hire them as and when they need them. That’s their vision. 

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I still believe that the lower paid will struggle to hire one if that's the way they go.

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Based on all the figures someone at work was allowed to order a tesla. Nobody checked the insurance but when work came to insure it it cost 3 times a s much as his currenty series 3 BMW.

The insurance company claimed that all electric cars were more expensive to insure and Tesla's were the most expensive of all the electric cars

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1 hour ago, ilovemyheckler said:

Based on all the figures someone at work was allowed to order a tesla. Nobody checked the insurance but when work came to insure it it cost 3 times a s much as his currenty series 3 BMW.

The insurance company claimed that all electric cars were more expensive to insure and Tesla's were the most expensive of all the electric cars

Rubbish. My Tesla is one of the cheapest cars I have insured. Especially considering its cost. I pay about £450. 

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On 15/02/2020 at 17:11, McSpredder said:

Among PW members, the short answer is probably NO, because none of the replies posted so far seems to be based on any sort of personal experience (apart from B725 and the dodgem).

It is hard to find information about range during real-life usage, or with aging batteries.  

Presumably manufacturers will be quoting an expected range for summer daytime driving in flat terrain, but I would also want to know how the range is affected by hills, night driving (headlights), and winter driving while using both the heater (to keep occupants warm) and the air conditioner (for de-misting the screen).

A petrol or diesel car, given reasonable basic maintenance, will give just as many mpg when it is 30 years old as when it was new, despite having had the tank refilled several hundred times.   By contrast, the batteries of my various power tools last fairly well when brand new, but nowhere near as long when they are a couple of years old and have been re-charged a few dozen times.

Inductive road surfaces might or might not be practicable for cities and/or motorways, but will never be economic in rural areas.

Owee correctly notes that the average daily car journey is quite short, but the idea that “…you could always rent a guzzler for that longer trip” might not be appropriate for unexpected journeys, or for any remote location.   Three days ago I was asked, at a few minutes notice, to drive a neighbour on an emergency visit to her critically ill husband in a hospital 70 miles away  --  no chance of arranging a hire car or taxi quickly in this sparsely populated rural area. 

I am not averse to the general idea of buying an electric car, but may well be dead before the technical issues have been resolved.

I drive a Tesla Model X. Have done so for over two years  

The degradation of car batteries is negligible (there are Tesla’s out there with a million miles on them). People compare them to batteries in phones or power tools without realising that the cars have immensely sophisticated management systems designed to protect the battery and ensure longevity. Phones and power rolls have are dinosaurs in that respect. 

If any anybody wants to discuss the pros and cons of owning an electric car then please PM me. 

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9 hours ago, udderlyoffroad said:

Now obviously, there are some problems with this from a UK perspective; on-street parking being the main one.  It isn’t easy but certainly not insurmountable.  There are plenty of US cities where on-street parking is the only option, and plenty of Eastern European apartment buildings where the residents have rely on on-street parking too.  I’m currently working in the former East Germany, and on my way to work this morning I passed block after block of concrete flats with only on-street parking.  So, market demand for solutions to this problem is there.

The biggest failure with this policy of not selling any new internal-combustion engine cars from 2035, is that the government has no strategy for where the extra required generation capacity will come from.  So, for instance, a network of large batteries all wanting charging at night means we could finally get away from the appalling waste of money that is subsiding wind farms not to put energy into the grid.

Generation aside, one of the other massive issues for rolling out the charge point program was the lack of public ownership of the public realm within which the charging infrastructure is to be installed. Many 'public' car parks are privately owned. Add to which the power cables were simply not available even if the power capacity was provided. Homes being constructed now still do not have cabling capacity to allow rapid charging, compounding the problem of everyone switching on at 1700. 

We will require new legislation to enable charging infrastructure to be rolled out en masse. The disruption and costs involved are enormous. 

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18 hours ago, Medic1281 said:

Motoring will change. The Audi salesman yesterday was saying how Audi are looking at every car of a model will be identical off the production line Bar colour, and then the dealer will be able to turn the extras on and off via subscription. And people won’t be owning cars, they’ll just hire them as and when they need them. That’s their vision. 

Interesting vision - my personal vision is that within 100 years drones will replace cars. It will  make red extraction a bit easier, if there are any left.

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Sorry AVB but floating a Tesla Model X (c £90,000) as an example of an everyday EV is a bit like using Range Rover Velar as an example of an everyday SUV. Most people spend less than a third of that on a car, often much less, and when you read about real world experiences with cars like the Leaf, it's evident that the inconveniences and drawbacks take a lot of adjusting to, especially when the advertising is so misleading.

Whatever the government's claimed medium to long term view might be, I don't see EVs being widely accepted as everyday, multi purpose transport for at least 50 years. And I'd still like to know how we can achieve, or even afford, sufficient generating capacity and a viable distribution infrastructure without doing immense damage to the environment.

Even with the much vaunted hybrid technology it's well reported that the typical usage pattern of company operated hybrid vehicles very quickly gravitates to conventional power exclusively, and I'm not in the least surprised.

Mild hybrid makes sense to me as the only feasible way to reduce fossil fuel consumption without all the drawbacks and it can get progressively better without unacceptable development costs.

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@Westward whilst looking at vehicles in isolation I could agree with the sentiment but looking at vehicles as part of an integrated solution to tackling the climate change agenda I am not so sure we have much option, than to embrace the opportunity presented by ev's.

Electric vehicles (EVs): EV sales are expected to increase significantly through the 2020s, both domestically and globally. The 2019 Battery Price Survey by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that EVs will start to reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles globally in 2024, after which sales will gather pace. This will be accompanied by improvements in performance and resultant reductions in anxiety over range.

Fuel cell vehicles and infrastructure: Fuel cells are not anticipated to have a material impact up to 2030 for passenger vehicles as there is not yet a supply of hydrogen available at scale or a demonstrated infrastructure network that can safely carry it to vehicles. The 2020s are likely to provide an opportunity for testing, refining and demonstrating the technology, with it being most viable for heavy goods vehicles. (source lse Feb 2020)

by 2046 NG’s analysis estimated that peak demand as a result of EVs charging would be 30 GW. By contrast, the most likely scenario in NG’s analysis saw peak demand from electric vehicles alone being around 5 GW, about an 8% increase on today’s peak demand value. This is because NG believe the switch to EVs will not be as extreme, and consumer behaviour will change to avoid charging at peak times, therefore resulting in a less significant increase to peak demand (source EV's and infrastructure house of commons library 31st Jan2020)

 

 

Edited by oowee

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5 minutes ago, oowee said:

@Westward whilst looking at vehicles in isolation I could agree with the sentiment but looking at vehicles as part of an integrated solution to tackling the climate change agenda I am not so sure we have much option, than to embrace the opportunity presented by ev's.

Electric vehicles (EVs): EV sales are expected to increase significantly through the 2020s, both domestically and globally. The 2019 Battery Price Survey by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that EVs will start to reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles globally in 2024, after which sales will gather pace. This will be accompanied by improvements in performance and resultant reductions in anxiety over range.

Fuel cell vehicles and infrastructure: Fuel cells are not anticipated to have a material impact up to 2030 for passenger vehicles as there is not yet a supply of hydrogen available at scale or a demonstrated infrastructure network that can safely carry it to vehicles. The 2020s are likely to provide an opportunity for testing, refining and demonstrating the technology, with it being most viable for heavy goods vehicles. (source lse Feb 2020)

by 2046 NG’s analysis estimated that peak demand as a result of EVs charging would be 30 GW. By contrast, the most likely scenario in NG’s analysis saw peak demand from electric vehicles alone being around 5 GW, about an 8% increase on today’s peak demand value. This is because NG believe the switch to EVs will not be as extreme, and consumer behaviour will change to avoid charging at peak times, therefore resulting in a less significant increase to peak demand (source EV's and infrastructure house of commons library 31st Jan2020)

 

 

Exactly. We can't base a future system on present day constraints. To say that electric cars are unfeasible because of the charging issue and the national grid and the battery life is too shortsighted. All of these things will naturally improve, because technology gets better and people adapt to what is available and what's needed. Do we all need to be charging cars at the same time? no, so we'll charge when it's convenient, needed and cheapest. Do all houses need charge points? no - who fills up their petrol/diesel car at home now? Are people going to be running them flat all the time, so they need a full charge? no. Like I said, people will charge when it's possible and convenient. Charge times will get better as technology does. We see it in the combustion engine now. Take a car with a 2.5 litre engine from 2000 and compare it to a 2.5 litre engine today. Fuel efficiency, performance weight etc...all massively improved. Technology improves over time and the higher the demand, the faster the tech improves. 

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Interesting one from the farming community this morning. If they ban diesel what then ?  Quietly trundling around the countryside are a fair number of diesel guzzling farm tractors, front end loader, harvesters, combines harvesting food for us all.  Fuel prices are going to go sky high for sure and at present no manufactuer has to my knowledge built an electric tractor, combine, etc.,......seriously has anyone really thought this through ?     Every field will have to have a charging station ..... think harvest time when these machines are running 18-20hrs a day non stop.

I have a huge complex near me converting grass into electricty BUT  all 2000 acres of grass and maize has to be harvested with diesel engines.  The whole deal is environmentally subsidised I am sure.

Edited by Walker570

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1 hour ago, Walker570 said:

Interesting one from the farming community this morning. If they ban diesel what then ?  Quietly trundling around the countryside are a fair number of diesel guzzling farm tractors, front end loader, harvesters, combines harvesting food for us all.  Fuel prices are going to go sky high for sure and at present no manufactuer has to my knowledge built an electric tractor, combine, etc.,......seriously has anyone really thought this through ?     Every field will have to have a charging station ..... think harvest time when these machines are running 18-20hrs a day non stop.

I have a huge complex near me converting grass into electricty BUT  all 2000 acres of grass and maize has to be harvested with diesel engines.  The whole deal is environmentally subsidised I am sure.

The notion of banning diesel isn't quite fair. It's more about it being phased out, but it will be done only as alternatives (real alternatives) become available. There are electric tractors out there. Here's John Deere's version (this is from 2017) and the fendt e100 vario. And more will be coming. The problem is battery life. The same thing we were all saying when electric cars started to surface. The original Leaf had a range of barely 100 miles - driving it perfectly. Now that's up to 239. Things get better. 

 

 

Edited by chrisjpainter

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I wouldn't disagree that the technology will arrive in due course. Heck, I worked in the computer industry for almost 50 years so I accept the principle that the issues will ultimately be solved and probably solved well. My problem is with both the likely timescales - and given the track record of government estimates over my lifetime I'd at least treble any of their estimates - and also the costs to the taxpayer, to industry and to the public. Whitehall never gets this stuff anywhere near right, particularly when there are political points to win by under estimating.

 

39 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

.....seriously has anyone really thought this through ?    

That's a very good question and I'm pretty sure the answer is no. The idea is to look and sound good to placate whichever pressure groups are most noisy, and right now that's the climate hysterics banging on about CO2. No government of any flavour thinks this sort of thing through because they don't really care if they get it right or wrong. They well know that when the SHTF they'll be long gone into history.

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Given the abundance of water and the advancement of technology I'd say the fuel cell was the way to go in the long run. Li-on batteries have only gone on so long as the government have pushed for them. About 10 years ago honda produced a fuel cell car (driven by James may if I remember right) that was powered by hydrogen that you produced at home with a petrol pump like box that sat on your drive. It burnt the excess and powered your home as well. The car had a similar range and power out put to its petrol version. That was 10 years ago. Other big makers are also noe progessing. Battery power and electric charging is, in my opinion, a stop gap.

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19 hours ago, GingerCat said:

Battery power and electric charging is, in my opinion, a stop gap.

But we already have a stop gap, it's the internal combustion engine. It's madness to go eyeballs out in forcing unwanted widespread EV usage along with the 100s of billions of cost to us the taxpayers, if a genuinely usable new technology that actually meets motorist's needs, rather than appeasing a bunch of misguided crusaders, is not too far along the road.

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9 minutes ago, Westward said:

But we already have a stop gap, it's the internal combustion engine

Somebody far cleverer than me pointed out that it's always like this with new technology, i.e. the internal combustion engine has just about been perfected, whereas EV technology is in its infancy, and is only appealing to early adopters.

Same for piston-prop driven aircraft when the jet engine was first mooted. - why would anybody want a un proven, noisy, propellor-less thing when props work really well, thank you?

Or those damn horseless carriages?  They'll only do 5mph, my horse can go 20mph or more.

I'd agree though that moving to EVs for environmental reasons, is for the most part utter, total, nonsense of the first water.  Those who only see exhaust emissions are fools.  No, the move is more because oil will, someday, be too valuable to burn.

On 19/02/2020 at 17:01, Walker570 said:

If they ban diesel what then ?

Current government policy is to ban the sales of NEW internal combustion engined private cars by 2035, nothing more.

Yes, the world runs on diesel, but to my mind tractors should be an easier problem to solve than cars, if anything, given that drag increases with the square of speed.  They tend to trundle at a fixed rate for hours a day.  Electrically driven hydraulics tend to be far more efficient than ICE-driven.  Also, tractors might well be better candidates for swappable batteries than cars - especially as farmers already have things like Telehandlers that could do the heavy work.  This would solve the problem of long days of running around harvest time.

 

On 18/02/2020 at 23:31, oowee said:

Homes being constructed now still do not have cabling capacity to allow rapid charging, compounding the problem of everyone switching on at 1700. 

I was talking to one of MK's chief technical gurus at the Screwfix show, he informed me that some housing developers are looking at trying to get 3-phase power to the houses on their higher end homes, precisely for EV charging.  3 phase in domestic premises is common in mainland Europe, almost entirely unheard of here.

 

 

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I too was looking at the e-from, I believe it currently has 0%BIK, but when that starts creeping up it becomes costly,  that's why I came out of our scheme in the end and got my own car

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On 18/02/2020 at 12:51, 243deer said:

Aluminium air batteries have been around at least since the eighties and have a few niche uses. I would venture that the “suppression” from the car companies is actually a lack of interest in tested then rejected technology.

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