LIFTING THE LOCKDOWN!

[Old farrier]

5 minutes ago, Smokersmith said:

The death toll was doubling every 3 days.

It isn’t now.

It’s the numbers of new cases you should be looking at 

it needs to fall a long way today’s figures represent no significant decline 

[Smokersmith]

Agree ... testing is finding more and we will stay restricted.

[lancer425]

5k new cases today will be 1/4 million by midweek, and 35k dead . there is lots of it out there still , and the lack of distancing going on every idiot and his uncle fred out exercising. Shopping. B&Q essentials. Ill be honest i dont think we are going to do it. few are  taking this seriously.

[Jaymo]

7 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

5k new cases today will be 1/4 million by midweek, and 35k dead . there is lots of it out there still , and the lack of distancing going on every idiot and his uncle fred out exercising. Shopping. B&Q essentials. Ill be honest i dont think we are going to do it. few are  taking this seriously.

A ‘few’ are looking at the demographics and also realise that it’s proposed that millions have/ have had it with nothing worse than your normal seasonal colds/flu.
8 billion people in this world, 67 million here- even if a vaccine was made available then it would be years before everyone received it and by that time those who have decided to shut themselves  away will most likely succumb to something entirely different.

 

 

[Raja Clavata]

3 hours ago, Walker570 said:

Yes, get back to work, use common sense and within a couple weeks it will all be back to near normal again.  

Really?

[lancer425]

7 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Really?

[Mice!]

11 hours ago, lancer425 said:

5k new cases today will be 1/4 million by midweek, and 35k dead . there is lots of it out there still , and the lack of distancing going on every idiot and his uncle fred out exercising. Shopping. B&Q essentials. Ill be honest i dont think we are going to do it. few are  taking this seriously.

 

10 hours ago, Jaymo said:

A ‘few’ are looking at the demographics and also realise that it’s proposed that millions have/ have had it with nothing worse than your normal seasonal colds/flu.
8 billion people in this world, 67 million here- even if a vaccine was made available then it would be years before everyone received it and by that time those who have decided to shut themselves  away will most likely succumb to something entirely different.

 

 

Well there were quite a few out in our street yesterday having a socially awkward VE day celebration,  people talking and having a beer, no one seemed to think being there was going to spread anything,  people wanted to return to work and kids to school.

There have been very few cases in our area, people only new someone that new someone who had had it so no direct contact. 

We all know it's out there, but staying bottled up forever won't sort things out.

[lancer425]

2 hours ago, Mice! said:

 

Well there were quite a few out in our street yesterday having a socially awkward VE day celebration,  people talking and having a beer, no one seemed to think being there was going to spread anything,  people wanted to return to work and kids to school.

There have been very few cases in our area, people only new someone that new someone who had had it so no direct contact. 

We all know it's out there, but staying bottled up forever won't sort things out.

 We all know enough about this virus from the basic info given, its life on various surfaces its incubation etc all well known. It has to die out, Thats what we are trying to do.

In 1918 a villiage in the states i think it was sat out the flu and had any supplies left at the end of the road, and was paid for by money left in jars of vinegar. Not one person in there died from flu.

If everyone had followed the guidance exactly from the day it was given, we would not be looking at a death toll anything like we are now. we would be closer to a full recovery.  

 

[clangerman]

obviously wasting our time staying in two mins ago the worlds biggest IDIOT hammered on the door until i was forced to open up wanting to buy a van his excuse for ignoring the sign (wait for it) i’m paying cash! 

[Jaymo]

14 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

 We all know enough about this virus from the basic info given, its life on various surfaces its incubation etc all well known. It has to die out, Thats what we are trying to do.

In 1918 a villiage in the states i think it was sat out the flu and had any supplies left at the end of the road, and was paid for by money left in jars of vinegar. Not one person in there died from flu.

If everyone had followed the guidance exactly from the day it was given, we would not be looking at a death toll anything like we are now. we would be closer to a full recovery.  

 

But this village lockdown mentality cannot be reproduced do so many reasons

Firstly, life has changed in 102 years, no longer is all you pretty much need produced or sold solely in one village.

Secondly, what about the fact that people ‘Must work’ to provide those goods that you think should be left out on a wall- the scale of food production cannot be limited to a few people from one particular local area producing for all.

Thirdly and back to a previous post- people aren’t prepared to loose everything for the chance of dying of ‘this particular’ virus which currently stands that more people are going to match four balls on the lotto than die this week most probably (6670 ish from this weeks two draws). Now I don’t know about you, but In playing since it started, I’ve matched four only once- but In that time I’ve had some pretty major health scares/operations and three bouts of ‘proper’ flu which has seen me coughing red stuff on each occasion due to chest infection.

Ok, last paragraph was a bit gibberish, but I’m trying to say that we’re not all going to curl up and hide away, hoping that things will be the same in the future for something that statically isn’t likely to kill me in all honesty 

We’ve become scared of our own shadows and maybe mislead into thinking that this lockdown isn’t too bad as were still getting paid an amount, maybe even feel better off for deferring loans and mortgages- but that can’t and won’t last, reality is soon to kick in big time 

[lancer425]

6 minutes ago, Jaymo said:

But this village lockdown mentality cannot be reproduced do so many reasons

Firstly, life has changed in 102 years, no longer is all you pretty much need produced or sold solely in one village.

Secondly, what about the fact that people ‘Must work’ to provide those goods that you think should be left out on a wall- the scale of food production cannot be limited to a few people from one particular local area producing for all.

Thirdly and back to a previous post- people aren’t prepared to loose everything for the chance of dying of ‘this particular’ virus which currently stands that more people are going to match four balls on the lotto than die this week most probably (6670 ish from this weeks two draws). Now I don’t know about you, but In playing since it started, I’ve matched four only once- but In that time I’ve had some pretty major health scares/operations and three bouts of ‘proper’ flu which has seen me coughing red stuff on each occasion due to chest infection.

Ok, last paragraph was a bit gibberish, but I’m trying to say that we’re not all going to curl up and hide away, hoping that things will be the same in the future for something that statically isn’t likely to kill me in all honesty 

We’ve become scared of our own shadows and maybe mislead into thinking that this lockdown isn’t too bad as were still getting paid an amount, maybe even feel better off for deferring loans and mortgages- but that can’t and won’t last, reality is soon to kick in big time 

Quite frankly that little lot is mostly BS, Not being offensive or anything but there you go. Work fact from fiction out then you might make more sense. Im outa here now. Bye!

[Jaymo]

Bye bye, 

Your village folklore tale was actually meant to be one in the UK and was during the plague ( close by a few hundred years so no cigar)  check your facts, oh no wait, you prefer to use the Daily Mail and it’s often several contradictory articles on the same page 

Even the so called ‘Scientists’ can’t agree, so what hope do us mere PW’ers have 😂

 

[Rewulf]

6 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

Quite frankly that little lot is mostly BS, Not being offensive or anything but there you go. Work fact from fiction out then you might make more sense. Im outa here now. Bye!

Quite frankly , before you start calling BS , you should compare Sweden (common sense social distancing policy, no lockdown) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
With the UKs 'lockdown' and  watered down effects on new cases and death rates. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Some 5000 new cases per day and 5-600 deaths, 'But it would be far higher' you say ?
Well why isnt half the population of Sweden dying out ? Where are the bodies ?

Theyve had it just as long as us.

In 5 years time labour will be bleating about 15 years of austerity has killed xxxxxx amount of people due to tory mismanagement  !

Like I said to the other 'retiree' , its all well and good when you dont need to earn a living, others who are seeing their business's and careers go down the pan ,because of a disease that compares with seasonal flu s mortality rate, are quite rightly concerned.
How many people have been too scared to seek medical attention have unnecessarily died, how many cancer sufferers ?
Never mind the domestic abuse stats going up, and mental health decline.

Use a bit of common sense , if you want to bunker down, go for it.
Dont tell others , who have more at stake, to 'do as I do'.

[Scully]

1 hour ago, lancer425 said:

 

If everyone had followed the guidance exactly from the day it was given, we would not be looking at a death toll anything like we are now. we would be closer to a full recovery.  

 

You can't say that with any certainty at all, it's mere speculation. A friend in Spain has/is going through one of the most strict lockdowns in europe, and their death toll isn't one to be envied. 

36 minutes ago, Jaymo said:

But this village lockdown mentality cannot be reproduced do so many reasons

Firstly, life has changed in 102 years, no longer is all you pretty much need produced or sold solely in one village.

Secondly, what about the fact that people ‘Must work’ to provide those goods that you think should be left out on a wall- the scale of food production cannot be limited to a few people from one particular local area producing for all.

Thirdly and back to a previous post- people aren’t prepared to loose everything for the chance of dying of ‘this particular’ virus which currently stands that more people are going to match four balls on the lotto than die this week most probably (6670 ish from this weeks two draws). Now I don’t know about you, but In playing since it started, I’ve matched four only once- but In that time I’ve had some pretty major health scares/operations and three bouts of ‘proper’ flu which has seen me coughing red stuff on each occasion due to chest infection.

Ok, last paragraph was a bit gibberish, but I’m trying to say that we’re not all going to curl up and hide away, hoping that things will be the same in the future for something that statically isn’t likely to kill me in all honesty 

We’ve become scared of our own shadows and maybe mislead into thinking that this lockdown isn’t too bad as were still getting paid an amount, maybe even feel better off for deferring loans and mortgages- but that can’t and won’t last, reality is soon to kick in big time 

This. 

[lancer425]

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

Quite frankly , before you start calling BS , you should compare Sweden (common sense social distancing policy, no lockdown) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
With the UKs 'lockdown' and  watered down effects on new cases and death rates. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Some 5000 new cases per day and 5-600 deaths, 'But it would be far higher' you say ?
Well why isnt half the population of Sweden dying out ? Where are the bodies ?

Theyve had it just as long as us.

In 5 years time labour will be bleating about 15 years of austerity has killed xxxxxx amount of people due to tory mismanagement  !

Like I said to the other 'retiree' , its all well and good when you dont need to earn a living, others who are seeing their business's and careers go down the pan ,because of a disease that compares with seasonal flu s mortality rate, are quite rightly concerned.
How many people have been too scared to seek medical attention have unnecessarily died, how many cancer sufferers ?
Never mind the domestic abuse stats going up, and mental health decline.

Use a bit of common sense , if you want to bunker down, go for it.
Dont tell others , who have more at stake, to 'do as I do'.

You will do what the government will tell you you can, like everyone. And with some luck they will get it right so that some if not all of the "i want to do what i want to do because i can and i know better ".   You will Be complying with what boris tells vyou you can do tomorrow . The rest of your post is just typical of you and many like you. Just folow the guidance Stay home Protect the NHS save lives. What is hard about that. ?

[Rewulf]

Just now, lancer425 said:

You will do what the government will tell you you can, like everyone. 

Yes Sir , everyone does as theyre told, no one breaks the rules/laws , its Utopia out there 

 

2 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

And with some luck they will get it right

Luck ? 
Its a good job we dont need that when we have ICL with hugely accurate pandemic modelling data and the WHO 

 

3 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

not all of the "i want to do what i want to do because i can and i know better "

There you go , trust in your masters , they wont tell you wrong 

 

5 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

The rest of your post is just typical of you and many like you.

Thats because I use my brain and apply common sense, try it sometime, rather than hiding behind your curtains judging others .

 

6 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

Stay home Protect the NHS save lives. What is hard about that. ?

Repeat the mantra, Repeat the mantra , REPEAT the mantra , and one day the bad bug will just fade away 

[Jaymo]

But you can do “As the government tell you”, but it’s been interpreted that no one can continue working.

They never said “Stay at home or else” check our the official document and it’s ‘Guidelines’ then work out why were heading for the greatest crash for 300 years.

BTW, thought you had gone as you categorically stayed “bye”?

[clangerman]

4 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Yes Sir , everyone does as theyre told, no one breaks the rules/laws , its Utopia out there 

 

Luck ? 
Its a good job we dont need that when we have ICL with hugely accurate pandemic modelling data and the WHO 

 

There you go , trust in your masters , they wont tell you wrong 

 

Thats because I use my brain and apply common sense, try it sometime, rather than hiding behind your curtains judging others .

 

Repeat the mantra, Repeat the mantra , REPEAT the mantra , and one day the bad bug will just fade away 

i’m so glad you have it all boxed of for us so what’s the new mantra then go out and cost lives? 

[lancer425]

 Sadly folks we will never ever be able to prove one way or the other decisively, if flowing the guidance to the letter from the moment it was first issued would have impacted infections/ death tolls in the uk.

Because not everyone followed the guidance, and the uptake generally though in my opinion surprising, was still not as good as we could have achieved if we had all shown the same commitment.   The facts remain, Many on here report non compliance only yesterday on a big scale. One chap talked of a garden centre selling plants where Quote they were not "2cm Apart not 2 M" .

Its just not happening, We reap what we sow. We are sowing infection at the moment and will be paying the price for all this in death and taxes for a long time. And when things get tough, the non compliant who " Did what they wanted because they were not going to be told by government what to do" Can sit back and look at these halcyon days with real pride.

Meanwile. Me and the majority will do exactly what we are told we must do, and hopefully do a good enough job to save the Rebels ***** in this pandemic. just do as your  told by your government and grow up.

10 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Yes Sir , everyone does as theyre told, no one breaks the rules/laws , its Utopia out there 

 

Luck ? 
Its a good job we dont need that when we have ICL with hugely accurate pandemic modelling data and the WHO 

 

There you go , trust in your masters , they wont tell you wrong 

 

Thats because I use my brain and apply common sense, try it sometime, rather than hiding behind your curtains judging others .

 

Repeat the mantra, Repeat the mantra , REPEAT the mantra , and one day the bad bug will just fade away 

 I Am Not ashamed to be following guidance, I have no scientific back ground and i do not think its my place to decide what my actions could have on others lives or welfares long term.   I will Do all i can to comply to instructions.

I consider that is the responsible thing to do. YOMV.

 

[Mice!]

52 minutes ago, Jaymo said:

We’ve become scared of our own shadows and maybe mislead into thinking that this lockdown isn’t too bad as were still getting paid an amount, maybe even feel better off for deferring loans and mortgages- but that can’t and won’t last, reality is soon to kick in big time 

Not sure about being scared of own Shadows,  I think most are simply sticking to what the government has asked.

At our mini street party, people were sat apart chatting having a drink, I'm sure no one would have been out if they thought they could catch it.

I've been back in work now for 5 or 6 weeks the social distancing is being hammered home, lots of sanitizer around site and a reduced amount of people,  but their increasing numbers next week.

The important thing is not one case on site, with care and the dreaded common sense things have to start getting back to normal,  people to work, kids to school just slowly. 

I would still expect those with health problems to be told stay home if you can,  same for the over 70s as there is no point risking your health if you don't need to.

[Rewulf]

5 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

 I Am Not ashamed to be following guidance, I have no scientific back ground and i do not think its my place to decide what my actions could have on others lives or welfares long term.   I will Do all i can to comply to instructions.

Id stay away from everyone until the entire worlds been vaccinated then, you can never be too careful.

 

2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

At our mini street party, people were sat apart chatting having a drink, I'm sure no one would have been out if they thought they could catch it.

I've been back in work now for 5 or 6 weeks the social distancing is being hammered home, lots of sanitizer around site and a reduced amount of people,  but their increasing numbers next week.

The important thing is not one case on site, with care and the dreaded common sense things have to start getting back to normal,  people to work, kids to school just slowly. 

I would still expect those with health problems to be told stay home if you can,  same for the over 70s as there is no point risking your health if you don't need to.

There you go Lancer, common sense, applied within guidelines and the 'law'
That wasnt hard was it ?

10 minutes ago, clangerman said:

i’m so glad you have it all boxed of for us so what’s the new mantra then go out and cost lives? 

Yours can be , 'Stay in, save MY life, pass judgement on everyone else , feel all smug and righteous' 

[lancer425]

16 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Not sure about being scared of own Shadows,  I think most are simply sticking to what the government has asked.

At our mini street party, people were sat apart chatting having a drink, I'm sure no one would have been out if they thought they could catch it.

I've been back in work now for 5 or 6 weeks the social distancing is being hammered home, lots of sanitizer around site and a reduced amount of people,  but their increasing numbers next week.

The important thing is not one case on site, with care and the dreaded common sense things have to start getting back to normal,  people to work, kids to school just slowly. 

I would still expect those with health problems to be told stay home if you can,  same for the over 70s as there is no point risking your health if you don't need to.

And that’s the responsible thing to do.  You can think your way around a problem/ event in work, and keep everyone safe.  About the only thing im struggling with is moving vehicles. everything has to be transported, no one outside the family home in car on return from drop offs.

I got selling machines off to a T , I just Watsapp videos. Talk at length With buyers Do whatever they want shown. Then arrange the collection I dont generally deliver. I Load on their transport on my drive, they strap it on they dont get out the vehicle and are 40 yards from the house up near the gate. I never touch money or their Vehicle / trailer ever. And i dont go near where their vehicle was for at least 5 hours.

  Sold three since lockdown only one thought we were OTT. but its this way or Buy some place else.

I am not Scared of this virus, but i do not want to catch it. It might be i do at some point, but i will have done all i possibly can to comply with what the government want, and to be responsible to myself mine and others, and not forgetting the health of the nation and its long term impact on our economy.

   I dont expect fan fairs of horns or praise, But i think we who have genuinely tried to do everything asked of us to the letter should at least be allowed to do what the government asks us to do without being Ridiculed for our efforts.

In my opinion if someone wants to go it alone and rebel you should expect criticism, but i do not feel it is fairly justifiable to criticise those who comply the only thing i feel the rebels have is to quietly ignore the law abiding.   Outlaws is a strong term, but outside the Law is outside the law. and if the cap fits wear it.  . 

 

[7daysinaweek]

15 hours ago, Old farrier said:

Appreciate your updates and the work you and your colleagues are doing big thanks 

 

was wondering on your thoughts about the best way out of the situation 

all the best 

of 

 

Hi OF

There is recent proposal from the World health authority (WHO) on commencing/increasing human challenge trials which consists of directly infecting of humans with the virus. The benefits among others are more specific study of specific antibodies produced in measured time frame, transmission rates and ultimately producing a more targeted vaccine which ultimately reduces the co-morbid and mortality burden on society. The virus has a direct impact on the social economic global burden among many other things. Downside of these trials are they are ethically sensitive and the risks associated with directly infecting an individual range from severe illness in the a acute phase of trial to long term co-morbidities developed from the infection and death. However individuals or groups can be closely monitored and parameters set so limiting risks to the individual to an extent. The  groups most suitable to mitigate individual risks have already been identified as younger adults with no underlying known health conditions in say the age ranges of 18-30 years of age.

If I recall correctly there are around 100 different groups working towards on vaccine production globally. We have had years of developing the flu vaccine so the understanding of the virology and epidemiology of influenza is well documented. However we are working with a different maladies with Covid. A vaccine can take a great deal of time to produce if they are to ensure safe use and efficacy in the widespread population.

Even if a highly targeted vaccine is produced the vaccination delivery will be simply staggering and could take years until we achieve acceptable levels of herd immunity, then what are acceptable levels ?. Vaccination herd immunity would appear to give the most safe immune response from studies of vaccinations of previous coronavirus infection, how often will the vaccination have to be administered, what formulation will it come in, injection, oral drops or nasal spray? all his remains to be established? Natural acquired infection immunity antibody response remains to be well established and this is the risky end of herd immunity as it is attributed to increase in deaths increasing in at risk groups. 

Obviously the virus is simply not going to disappear so we cannot stay  away from one another forever and as the economy suffers this has a direct impact on health outcomes both physical and mental health. I can foresee the infection rates rising again as we move away from restrictions, at present the vulnerable still need to shield and isolation guidance continue if a person becomes symptomatic. Until we have a vaccine or the virus mutates to a less virulent form in the short term we can estimate that we will experience an increase in the numbers of deaths as societal distancing behaviors are eroded and social distancing becomes a distant thought for increasing numbers. 

Apologies that was a bit doom and gloom, however there is no magic bullet right now. Hopefully with the global effort there will come strong light at the end of the long tunnel.

I have not really brought anything to the table!

Be sensible, adopt good hygiene measures, keep positive, social distance appropriately.

atb

7diaw

 

 

15 hours ago, Mice! said:

Not good that mate, it must really stick in your craw doing what you do all day and seeing that.

Hope you're keeping well with all that's going on.

 

[clangerman]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Id stay away from everyone until the entire worlds been vaccinated then, you can never be too careful.

 

There you go Lancer, common sense, applied within guidelines and the 'law'
That wasnt hard was it ?

Yours can be , 'Stay in, save MY life, pass judgement on everyone else , feel all smug and righteous' 

staying in is better than rushing out there and risking the lives of OTHERS and i thought i was irresponsible lol 

[Mungler]

We can cut the arguing short because very soon the government is going to want people back at work because the lockdown and paying people to stay at home cannot continue indefinitely. 

The truth of the stats is that if you are under 70 years of age the chance of your catching this and dying is about 1300 : 1 and of course the younger you are (and the further away from 70 you are in age), the longer those odds become. I doubt that I even know 1300 people 😆

The message remains, if you’re over 65 or a bit touch and go anyway then crack on and stay in but the rest of the world just cannot do that with you for much longer.

It’s worth weighing that stat against the below.

Of the people I know and speak to, everyone has said that when the lockdown is lifted they have no desire to put themselves in harm’s way or at risk and so won’t be going ‘our out’ or to the pub etc.  Most people want to get back to a routine and back to work without Facebook Curtain twitching quislings wanting to string them up for the heinous crime of being outside.

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Mungler