Some shocking stats

[lancer425]

Its not just who died, its who lived too young people who are looking at the rest of their lives with health issues down to this virus.

[oowee]

46 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

And significant tax rises across the board for those who are still earning / legitimately sitting on cash / spending it. Is it even conceivable tax on pensions could increase, I would think so...

Or at the very least a pension freeze, together with increase taxes on luxury goods, proper taxes on the self employed and company directors paid with dividends.

[AVB]

I am not denying that this is a nasty virus and it is killing some people but we seem to have worked ourselves up into a frenzy about it. I saw a report today that stated we were the most scared nation on earth. You only need to look at the media and the posts that people make on (insert your favoured social media channel here) that normally go along the lines of “NO it’s still to early, people are still DYING, we need a STRICTER lockdown etc”. 
 

Perhaps my fears about the economy are also overstated but, personally, the more I see the more I fear the effect on the economy and less I fear the virus. 

[Mungler]

Anyone like stats? Here’s a good working example:

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-1300-test-positive-tennessee-prison-98-asymptomatic-zero-deaths/

 

[Vince Green]

55 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I have heard so many different versions of what this could be.  I (and it seems many others) had a nasty illness late December/early January.  In theory it couldn't have been a mild Covid - because it wasn't here then for me to catch.  - Or mabe it was?.

 

55 minutes ago, Mungler said:

They have opened up old suspected pneumonia cases and are finding Covid in early December before it is suggested to have left Wuhan. I had breathlessness back in last September and low blood O2 levels - I went to the quack (that’s a once a year trip for me at best) and had tests and a chest x-ray. No answers, quack said ‘it’s probably a virus but have some antibiotics anyway’. I would like a test.

There is an actor, can't remember his name but he used to be in Coronation St who said he is absolutely sure he had it in September too while appearing in York. He said the symptoms were severe but classic covid he now realises.

You do have to wonder, will it ever get followed up?

[Fatcatsplat]

1 hour ago, Spoon said:

Lots of talk about "only the old dying", but what is the impact on people who have serious symptoms and survive? It reminds me of anti-vax "evidence" that only uses a death rate as a binary indicator of proof, leaving out lasting damage done to survivors.

I'm a fit and healthy 34 year old and you wouldn't know by looking at me that I have a condition that could mean catching it kills me or seriously reduces my long term health. There will be other people like that out there that we're "burning the economy" for and they can hear you talking...

Same here - 52 and outwardly healthy (but try telling that to my heart and my lungs). Got my government food parcel this morning and a letter telling me to isolate and not leave the house before June 30th!! Luckily, i'm a desk jockey and i can work from home, so have an income coming in and have my family to do shopping etc, but frankly, my odds, if i get this disease, really ain't that great

[JohnfromUK]

8 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Anyone like stats? Here’s a good working example:

Interesting.  Quite a number on here including you and me (and others elsewhere) are now that we know it may have been here earlier, wondering whether illnesses we have had may have been Covid-19.  One of the problems seems to be that the symptoms are so different in different confirmed cases, ranging from asymptomatic to death in severity and covering breathing, digestion, nervous system, kidneys, joints, rashes, headaches, temperatures ........ the list is almost endless.

[JohnfromUK]

4 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

He said the symptoms were severe but classic covid he now realises.

My symptoms weren't particularly classic (only minor cough, but did include some of the less common symptoms and I lost 10% body weight in a couple of weeks), but I did get tested for various other ailments - all of which came back negative - or 'all in normal well range', and I got better - and it was put down to 'probably a winter virus'.

[grrclark]

It is easy to talk about statistics and percentages with this virus and be a little dismissive about relatively low numbers impacted, but the demonstrable fact is that in countries where strict social isolation measures were not in place there was an accelerated growth in hospital admissions and critical care, so the health systems were overwhelmed.

The evidence also demonstrates that when the transmission vector for the virus was disrupted by implementing social isolation the hospital admission rates and critical care levels dropped correspondingly.

The reproduction rate of this virus and percentage of sufferers requiring invasive health measures is the problem, not the mortality rate. If unchecked at all with the initial R value of 3+ it will overwhelm our health system very quickly indeed.

It is also clear that the virus is not going to go away, so unless and until there is a vaccine we need to find a way to allow the country to operate whilst the virus transmission rate is such that it is manageable in terms of our ability to provide healthcare.  What is the optimal R number to allow the country to perform economically, but not overwhelm healthcare provision?

The mortality rate will be whatever it is, we cannot escape that.  The government cannot say that easily either, "sorry everyone, the unavoidable truth is that we are going to have to make economic policy decisions that mean some of you are going to be very ill with lasting consequence and some of you are going to die from Covid19, we cannot reliably protect you and the country needs to work and earn.  It is a health lottery and hundreds of thousands are going to be really unlucky."

Of course policy decisions that have fatal outcomes are made all the time, but not so very transparently and subject to second by second media scrutiny.  That is the brutal reality though.

For everyone who has commented critically on government policy and approach so far, how would you react to BoJo standing up to make that sort of proclamation?

[AVB]

4 minutes ago, grrclark said:

It is easy to talk about statistics and percentages with this virus and be a little dismissive about relatively low numbers impacted, but the demonstrable fact is that in countries where strict social isolation measures were not in place there was an accelerated growth in hospital admissions and critical care, so the health systems were overwhelmed.

The evidence also demonstrates that when the transmission vector for the virus was disrupted by implementing social isolation the hospital admission rates and critical care levels dropped correspondingly.

The reproduction rate of this virus and percentage of sufferers requiring invasive health measures is the problem, not the mortality rate. If unchecked at all with the initial R value of 3+ it will overwhelm our health system very quickly indeed.

It is also clear that the virus is not going to go away, so unless and until there is a vaccine we need to find a way to allow the country to operate whilst the virus transmission rate is such that it is manageable in terms of our ability to provide healthcare.  What is the optimal R number to allow the country to perform economically, but not overwhelm healthcare provision?

The mortality rate will be whatever it is, we cannot escape that.  The government cannot say that easily either, "sorry everyone, the unavoidable truth is that we are going to have to make economic policy decisions that mean some of you are going to be very ill with lasting consequence and some of you are going to die from Covid19, we cannot reliably protect you and the country needs to work and earn.  It is a health lottery and hundreds of thousands are going to be really unlucky."

Of course policy decisions that have fatal outcomes are made all the time, but not so very transparently and subject to second by second media scrutiny.  That is the brutal reality though.

For everyone who has commented critically on government policy and approach so far, how would you react to BoJo standing up to make that sort of proclamation?

It’s what he said about jobs  - “we can’t save every job”. Which is a reality. I accept that he can’t say the same about life and death but it is also a reality. Unfortunately a lot of people, possibly a majority, think that they can and should. 

[blackbird]

I was one of the people thinking the government was doing a good job but looking at others like New Zealand, Australia, Japan etc our death/infection rate is terrible looks like Boris & co have ####ed it right up, the same goes for the USA.

Edited May 6, 2020 by blackbird

[grrclark]

11 minutes ago, AVB said:

It’s what he said about jobs  - “we can’t save every job”. Which is a reality. I accept that he can’t say the same about life and death but it is also a reality. Unfortunately a lot of people, possibly a majority, think that they can and should. 

Look at the hysteria in the press with the talk of herd immunity initially, all the experts clamouring to hurl criticism and say it should have been done like this or that.  The press reaction and how they would frame that sort of statement. What would all the political opposition say and take a feel for what they have said already.

Take a feel from the contributions on here of how people would choose to interpret such a message about life and death.

If I was BoJo i would want to hold my nose on this as long as i possibly could so we can see what happens elsewhere.

Edited May 6, 2020 by grrclark

[Mice!]

3 minutes ago, grrclark said:

If I was BoJo i woudl want to hold my nose on this as loon as i possibly could so we can see what happens elsewhere.

That's my thoughts, see how things go in other countries, no rush after this long.

As for work, many are going back or already returning where the 2m rule can be applied, and not everyone stopped.

[Vince Green]

14 minutes ago, blackbird said:

I was one of the people thinking the government was doing a good job but looking at others like New Zealand, Australia, Japan etc our death/infection rate is terrible looks like Boris & co have ####ed it right up, the same goes for the USA.

Well, Australia and New Zealand are right at the back end of nowhere for a start with strict immigration policies. That has saved them to a great extent

[AVB]

8 minutes ago, Mice! said:

As for work, many are going back or already returning where the 2m rule can be applied, and not everyone stopped.

Which begs the question as to why some places closed in the first place? For some it could have been because they couldn’t enforce the 2m and now they feel they can, but for others I am not sure. Take B&Q for example. I went there early days of lockdown when they were open (and enforcing social distancing) and also when they reopened. Didn’t see any difference so not sure why they closed in the interim. 

[AVB]

21 minutes ago, blackbird said:

I was one of the people thinking the government was doing a good job but looking at others like New Zealand, Australia, Japan etc our death/infection rate is terrible looks like Boris & co have ####ed it right up, the same goes for the USA.

Japan hasn’t really enforced lockdown and speaking to people I know out there the lockdown is only advisory. Also they are hiding the numbers and turning many people away from hospitals. It will always be about ‘saving face’ in Japan and many other Asian countries. 
 

Oz and NZ are at the **** end of the world, fairly remote and far easier to ‘lock down’ the borders than the UK (you also saw in the press how difficult the Aussie police found it to enforce social distancing on the beaches for example). I have relatives in Perth who have been pretty much carrying on as usual - still having gatherings, BBQ’s etc. I think luck has something to do with it as well. 

[Mice!]

12 minutes ago, AVB said:

Which begs the question as to why some places closed in the first place? For some it could have been because they couldn’t enforce the 2m and now they feel they can, but for others I am not sure. Take B&Q for example. I went there early days of lockdown when they were open (and enforcing social distancing) and also when they reopened. Didn’t see any difference so not sure why they closed in the interim. 

I'm sure a lot will have furloughed staff, and I have no idea how that works with bringing them back in, I imagine it has to be declared and a lot of companies are probably happy having the government pay the wages, when that stops people will be back in work.

[blackbird]

27 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Well, Australia and New Zealand are right at the back end of nowhere for a start with strict immigration policies. That has saved them to a great extent

Germany is not at the back end of nowhere under 7,000 deaths ?  UK 30,000 deaths ?

Edited May 6, 2020 by blackbird

[AVB]

9 minutes ago, blackbird said:

Germany is not at the back end of nowhere under 7,000 deaths ?  UK 30,000 deaths ?

Are they counting all of the deaths in the same way as we are? What is the population density of the UK be Germany (our is higher iirc), what are the age demographics? The Government have said time and time again that comparing deaths at this time is pointless because of the many differences and the only way to do so will be by looking at excess normal mortality deaths at the end (whenever that is). Do you understand that or just focused on the daily reported number? 

[Jaymo]

Deleted my post.. but it went along the lines of the UK mirrors the rather glutton habits of the USA which poss has a major contribution to numbers.

Plus our general ‘fitness’ levels are no where near that as our closest European neighbours and this is markedly so in our elderly.... 

Having lives and work all over Europe, this is my own observation and experience ( oh how I’m going to miss my old lifestyle and job) 

[grrclark]

The daily death numbers in many ways don’t really matter, certainly not as a face value comparison of one country to another.

That comparison can only happen in time when all factors are considered.

[Raja Clavata]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

They have opened up old suspected pneumonia cases and are finding Covid in early December before it is suggested to have left Wuhan. I had breathlessness back in last September and low blood O2 levels - I went to the quack (that’s a once a year trip for me at best) and had tests and a chest x-ray. No answers, quack said ‘it’s probably a virus but have some antibiotics anyway’. I would like a test.

Yes, I'd seen this and for me it points back to a key point about the suggestion that the outbreak from Wuhan is based on version B of the virus, nobody seems to have a story on version A, either timeline or origin.

Out of interest how low we talking on the SpO2?

[JohnfromUK]

59 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Well, Australia and New Zealand are right at the back end of nowhere for a start with strict immigration policies. That has saved them to a great extent

/\ This couples with it being their summer and low population densities.

There is no doubt that Germany has done well - but they do count in different ways to us - and it will be interesting to see what happens as they 'unlock'.

Overall - looking at the broad opinions here, we have people on both sides - from those who favour a watertight closed country and full lockdown (which they think should have happened MUCH earlier) to those who think that we should work to only protect the vulnerable - and for everyone else, business as usual.  The 'government line' is somewhere down the middle - so will inevitably attract criticism from both sides.  It has however prevented the predicted swamping of the NHS - and so has had some success in it's aims.

Comparing figues is a complete waste of time when the figures are compiled in quite different ways

[Raja Clavata]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

Or at the very least a pension freeze, together with increase taxes on luxury goods, proper taxes on the self employed and company directors paid with dividends.

Thinking about it, the big difference between now and back in 2008 is that the economy is broken today whereas it was the banks broken back then. From what I've read on the Spanish flu outbreak it was the same situation as today and the bounce back came quickly. Once we establish the true extent of the impact of now we'll be able to assess what the profile of the recovery will look like. 

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

Comparing figues is a complete waste of time when the figures are compiled in quite different ways

Which is why I stopped looking globally and even nationally, I now focus purely on local NHS trust numbers which I know are both reliable and the most relevant metric for my loved ones and I in terms of likely exposure risk 👍

[Raja Clavata]

16 minutes ago, Jaymo said:

Deleted my post.. but it went along the lines of the UK mirrors the rather glutton habits of the USA which poss has a major contribution to numbers.

Plus our general ‘fitness’ levels are no where near that as our closest European neighbours and this is markedly so in our elderly.... 

Having lives and work all over Europe, this is my own observation and experience ( oh how I’m going to miss my old lifestyle and job) 

This too, oh and mea culpa to some extent as well...