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On 16/11/2020 at 11:56, oscarsdad said:

I make electric vehicles for a living and am heavily involved in battery design, procurement and end of life for batteries. 
 

Firstly you are correct - battery can make up 25% or so of the cost to make the vehicle. 

life-wise they are less of an issue - the newer battery technology will last a long time. The battery management system protects it from “lifing” itself from aggressive charging or power demand from the rest of the vehicle. 
 

there are companies who will re-manufacture batteries with the goal to have a re-man battery available for older vehicles at a cost which makes sense to put a new battery in an old vehicle. There will soon also be the possibility to “upgrade” older vehicles with better batteries as cell technology advances. 
 

I run a mild hybrid so not pure EV - why don’t I run pure EV? Not down to the vehicles, simply because of the lack of charging infrastructure - many of my fishing locations would be inaccessible with pure EV as I could get there but not get back! 

That sounds an interesting job. What role do you think the U.K. can play in battery manufacturing? Do you think it will be limited to R&D or do you think there is a role to play in large scale production? 

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2 hours ago, oowee said:

Climate change agreement carbon neutral 2050 🤣

Refer me to any example of a repeatable, peer reviewed scientific experiment performed anywhere or by anyone that proves that greenhouse gases exist or that CO2 has any effect whatsoever on the climate.

The Climate change agreement can only be met by carbon trading and that is nothing but a UN inspired move to redistribute wealth out to the undeveloped nations who, not surprisingly, dominate the UN numerically.

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5 minutes ago, Westward said:

Refer me to any example of a repeatable, peer reviewed scientific experiment performed anywhere or by anyone that proves that greenhouse gases exist or that CO2 has any effect whatsoever on the climate.

The Climate change agreement can only be met by carbon trading and that is nothing but a UN inspired move to redistribute wealth out to the undeveloped nations who, not surprisingly, dominate the UN numerically.

Never push water up hill. 

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43 minutes ago, AVB said:

That sounds an interesting job. What role do you think the U.K. can play in battery manufacturing? Do you think it will be limited to R&D or do you think there is a role to play in large scale production? 

A very difficult question to answer which I have spent the last year trying to answer. 
 

In my view, it will all come down to volumes. The UK absolutely has the brains and the technology to design and produce better cells, management systems and therefore battery packs than anywhere else. But, without the volumes it will impossible to compete on cost with Far East (mainly Korea and China) which is still where most of our cells come from even if packs are assembled in the UK. If the big OEMs were to club together to get volumes high enough then we could compete I would think. Whether they will do that remains to be seen. There is a big push from government to make this happen with funding support but I fear there are too many independent attempts to achieve this rather than a joined up UK effort. 
 

I do often wonder whether we UK industry should jump towards the next gen chemistry of cells and get ahead of the game, leave the Chinese behind and become a world leader - but that needs cash which we currently are spending on the pandemic so won’t be able to invest in R&D to the levels needed. 

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The amounts needed for investment in battery technology are trivial in comparison the amounts needed to upgrade the national grid when we're all forced to drive cars that take 3 times as long to get from London to Glasgow. 

49 minutes ago, oowee said:

Never push water up hill. 

I know, just pointing out that I don't drink the CO2 KoolAid, even if David Attenborough does.

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1 hour ago, Westward said:

The amounts needed for investment in battery technology are trivial in comparison the amounts needed to upgrade the national grid when we're all forced to drive cars that take 3 times as long to get from London to Glasgow. 

I know, just pointing out that I don't drink the CO2 KoolAid, even if David Attenborough does.

I really don’t mind if people don’t like electric cars and hark back to the good old days of steam but please stop peddling rubbish. The National Grid themselves have said that there would be no problem if everybody converted to electric tomorrow (as a nation we are using a lot less than we did in the 80’s for example) let alone in 10 years time. And why do you think a London to Glasgow trip will take three times as long. Google says that it would currently take 6 hours 58 minutes assuming you don’t stop. My three year old large tesla with a small battery will do it in 7 hours 58 minutes including three stops (according to the google powered sat nav in the car). Most people would have stopped at least once to stretch their legs and get a coffee anyway. A car with a larger, more modern (which i believe means denser) battery would do it with one stop in 7 hours 23 minutes. So negligible difference. 
 

I’m contemplating driving down to the Alps this winter (covid permitting) which will take  about 5 hours longer than if you, impossibly, drove non stop. And will cost me nothing in fuel. Absolutely nothing. 

2 hours ago, oscarsdad said:

A very difficult question to answer which I have spent the last year trying to answer. 
 

In my view, it will all come down to volumes. The UK absolutely has the brains and the technology to design and produce better cells, management systems and therefore battery packs than anywhere else. But, without the volumes it will impossible to compete on cost with Far East (mainly Korea and China) which is still where most of our cells come from even if packs are assembled in the UK. If the big OEMs were to club together to get volumes high enough then we could compete I would think. Whether they will do that remains to be seen. There is a big push from government to make this happen with funding support but I fear there are too many independent attempts to achieve this rather than a joined up UK effort. 
 

I do often wonder whether we UK industry should jump towards the next gen chemistry of cells and get ahead of the game, leave the Chinese behind and become a world leader - but that needs cash which we currently are spending on the pandemic so won’t be able to invest in R&D to the levels needed. 

Thanks. Are Tesla and Panasonic still the leaders in this space? 

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9 minutes ago, AVB said:

I really don’t mind if people don’t like electric cars and hark back to the good old days of steam but please stop peddling rubbish. The National Grid themselves have said that there would be no problem if everybody converted to electric tomorrow (as a nation we are using a lot less than we did in the 80’s for example) let alone in 10 years time. And why do you think a London to Glasgow trip will take three times as long. Google says that it would currently take 6 hours 58 minutes assuming you don’t stop. My three year old large tesla with a small battery will do it in 7 hours 58 minutes including three stops (according to the google powered sat nav in the car). Most people would have stopped at least once to stretch their legs and get a coffee anyway. A car with a larger, more modern (which i believe means denser) battery would do it with one stop in 7 hours 23 minutes. So negligible difference. 
 

I’m contemplating driving down to the Alps this winter (covid permitting) which will take  about 5 hours longer than if you, impossibly, drove non stop. And will cost me nothing in fuel. Absolutely nothing. 

Thanks. Are Tesla and Panasonic still the leaders in this space? 

Tesla yes...they have very recently revealed a tabless cell which should have a massive impact on manufacturing techniques. Panasonic I would say no - Samsung and LG are probably the two largest cell manufacturers. 
 

I quite fancy a Tesla Model X but I would want the twin battery one just for ludicrous mode and would therefore run out of charge very quickly lol! 

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5 minutes ago, oscarsdad said:

Tesla yes...they have very recently revealed a tabless cell which should have a massive impact on manufacturing techniques. Panasonic I would say no - Samsung and LG are probably the two largest cell manufacturers. 
 

I quite fancy a Tesla Model X but I would want the twin battery one just for ludicrous mode and would therefore run out of charge very quickly lol! 

Ha ha. I have driven a Mode S P100d with ludicrous mode. It lives up to its name. 0-60 in 2.2 seconds. Apparently the Model S Plaid which is due in 2021 will have 500+ range, top speed of 200mph and 0-60 in under 2 seconds! 

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Ditchman, while you are getting a few sensible  and informed answers here, most are regurgitating old myths and ill-informed opinion.

 

You would get better advice on an EV forum like this one: SpeakEV

 

I got an EV for rather selfish reasons, rather than any noble environmental concerns (though there are genuine benefits, despite the naysayers). It has, to my surprise, been a revelation.

 

For your purposes, an EV should be ideal.

 

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55 minutes ago, Westward said:

Well if it's free to recharge an electric car I'm in - and I don't care if the journey takes longer!

You need to speak to Elon Musk very nicely. He gave me free use of the Tesla Superchargers. I do pay when I fill up T home obviously. 

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18 hours ago, Westward said:

There's no such thing. That's part of the hoax.

As usual the truth is somewhere in between. A renewable tariff could be 100% renewable. Or it could be mostly generated by gas and oil but called renewable through the purchase of rego’s. The problem is simply that we currently lack sufficient storage for excess generation.

18 hours ago, Westward said:

Refer me to any example of a repeatable, peer reviewed scientific experiment performed anywhere or by anyone that proves that greenhouse gases exist or that CO2 has any effect whatsoever on the climate.

The Climate change agreement can only be met by carbon trading and that is nothing but a UN inspired move to redistribute wealth out to the undeveloped nations who, not surprisingly, dominate the UN numerically.

I hope that’s not the question you meant to ask. The property of water vapour or carbon dioxide (and others) to absorb infra red and “trap” heat is rudimentary science. I didn’t even know that was a matter of dispute.

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7 hours ago, SpringDon said:

I hope that’s not the question you meant to ask. The property of water vapour or carbon dioxide (and others) to absorb infra red and “trap” heat is rudimentary science. I didn’t even know that was a matter of dispute.

It is by no means universally accepted by scientists that CO2 is responsible for Climate Change. 

I recommend that you read Climate Change the Facts and In praise of Carbon. Both written by scientists and both available on Kindle. You might be surprised at what the real science tells us.

 

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On 17/11/2020 at 17:28, oscarsdad said:

A very difficult question to answer which I have spent the last year trying to answer. 
 

In my view, it will all come down to volumes. The UK absolutely has the brains and the technology to design and produce better cells, management systems and therefore battery packs than anywhere else. But, without the volumes it will impossible to compete on cost with Far East (mainly Korea and China) which is still where most of our cells come from even if packs are assembled in the UK. If the big OEMs were to club together to get volumes high enough then we could compete I would think. Whether they will do that remains to be seen. There is a big push from government to make this happen with funding support but I fear there are too many independent attempts to achieve this rather than a joined up UK effort. 
 

I do often wonder whether we UK industry should jump towards the next gen chemistry of cells and get ahead of the game, leave the Chinese behind and become a world leader - but that needs cash which we currently are spending on the pandemic so won’t be able to invest in R&D to the levels needed. 

Trouble is there aren't any big OEMs in the UK, as I'm sure you'd agree.

You're no doubt aware of the Faraday challenge but like a lot of BEIS, UKRI, Innovate UK, ISCF etc. initiatives it's mostly small scale stuff around POCs and nothing is particularly well joined up and certainly not ready to be scaled on an industrialised basis.

Personally I can't see any real prospect of battery production on an industrial scale being led out of the UK by the UK, if it happens it'll be through foreign investment.

Our best bet might be through some kind of ARM holding model where we own and licence IP but I'm not convinced that can really work either.

I also believe that long term hydrogen or other FCEVs will prevail, despite the infrastructure challenges.

I'm currently involved in lobbying for an ISCF intervention around embedded systems for future mobility. As well as a dearth of OEMs there are scant UK based Tier 1's who produce at scale in any sector.

Things are not being helped by delays to the CSR, which as you suggest are impacted by COVID.

That said there was a study / report by McKinsey that showed that post COVID investment in renewables returned 3x the ROI compared to fossil fuels:

image.png.abe543d6fae1ea8daab41e8e5c2e86e2.png

Any idea what happened to the Dyson battery tech, there is an opinion he was never really serious about car production but just wanted to use government money to advance his battery technology (Solid State IIRC) for other products?

Regarding the whys and woes of climate change, that ship already sailed, difficult to see delays in the net zero goals and targets (more likely to be accelerated). Regardless of the science, does anyone - other than those making huge profits from it - actually believe continuing to burn fossil fuels is really a good idea?

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You’ll get a 2nd hand ev for less than £10k. 22kv will have a summer range of approx 80/90 miles, 30 kv about 110/120. Go for one with rapid 50kv charge socket so you can get 80% charge in 20/30 minutes at rapid charge point if you want to travel further, that will cost you 8 1/2p per mile. Don’t bother with home charge point, it’ll cost you £500 and you can charge from a 13amp socket overnight which will cost you 2p per mile. Remember they are all automatics, average sales guys no nothing about them, have a look at Go Green Autos Ltd. really genuine guy and he’ll deliver vehicle to your door!

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9 hours ago, triumphant59 said:

Don’t bother with home charge point, it’ll cost you £500 and you can charge from a 13amp socket overnight which will cost you 2p per mile.

Exactly how much range can a 13 Amp socket dump into an EV overnight?  Mate of mine's Tesla takes several days to charge fully on 13amps.  That isn't a problem for him as he's not doing long drives at the moment.

But, if you think the current free-for-all charging at motorway services is going to continue, you are mistaken.

Where are you getting these figures from anyway?

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12 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

That said there was a study / report by McKinsey that showed that post COVID investment in renewables returned 3x the ROI compared to fossil fuels:

The swear filter will have a meltdown if I shared my thoughts on that...

Jobs created isn't usually a measure of ROI?

And working in the latter sector, which has been pared to the bone, let me tell you that an awful lot of 'non jobs' and 'jobs for the boys' are no more.  Doubt it's the same for renewables and energy efficiency sector.

If McKinsey had measured jobs that actually add value, the numbers might be different. But then that would be a dangerous precedent for them to set...

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12 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Trouble is there aren't any big OEMs in the UK, as I'm sure you'd agree.

You're no doubt aware of the Faraday challenge but like a lot of BEIS, UKRI, Innovate UK, ISCF etc. initiatives it's mostly small scale stuff around POCs and nothing is particularly well joined up and certainly not ready to be scaled on an industrialised basis.

Personally I can't see any real prospect of battery production on an industrial scale being led out of the UK by the UK, if it happens it'll be through foreign investment.

Our best bet might be through some kind of ARM holding model where we own and licence IP but I'm not convinced that can really work either.

I also believe that long term hydrogen or other FCEVs will prevail, despite the infrastructure challenges.

I'm currently involved in lobbying for an ISCF intervention around embedded systems for future mobility. As well as a dearth of OEMs there are scant UK based Tier 1's who produce at scale in any sector.

Things are not being helped by delays to the CSR, which as you suggest are impacted by COVID.

That said there was a study / report by McKinsey that showed that post COVID investment in renewables returned 3x the ROI compared to fossil fuels:

image.png.abe543d6fae1ea8daab41e8e5c2e86e2.png

Any idea what happened to the Dyson battery tech, there is an opinion he was never really serious about car production but just wanted to use government money to advance his battery technology (Solid State IIRC) for other products?

Regarding the whys and woes of climate change, that ship already sailed, difficult to see delays in the net zero goals and targets (more likely to be accelerated). Regardless of the science, does anyone - other than those making huge profits from it - actually believe continuing to burn fossil fuels is really a good idea?

I agree it is all small scale, IUK spreading a few tens of £millions sized projects about isn’t going to get the UK into battery manufacturing. 
 

I am not sure what happened to Dyson - can’t help but think that setting up in one of the most expensive countries in the world wasn’t the best move from the outset! 

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7 hours ago, udderlyoffroad said:

The swear filter will have a meltdown if I shared my thoughts on that...

Jobs created isn't usually a measure of ROI?

And working in the latter sector, which has been pared to the bone, let me tell you that an awful lot of 'non jobs' and 'jobs for the boys' are no more.  Doubt it's the same for renewables and energy efficiency sector.

If McKinsey had measured jobs that actually add value, the numbers might be different. But then that would be a dangerous precedent for them to set...

I think the McKinsey report was based on government intervention post COVID so jobs created is perhaps a reasonable metric?

I still have a foot in each camp although I moved from petrol engine controllers in 2007. Although I drive a 3L bi-turbo car I know that the future is not ICE.

6 hours ago, oscarsdad said:

I agree it is all small scale, IUK spreading a few tens of £millions sized projects about isn’t going to get the UK into battery manufacturing. 
 

I am not sure what happened to Dyson - can’t help but think that setting up in one of the most expensive countries in the world wasn’t the best move from the outset! 

That's the problem. It's not even half baked.

Compared to this in Germany with VW, we stand no chance, they are talking about investing ~€73B over the course of 5 years on e-mobility, hybridisation and digitalisation:

Transformation of Germany as a center of industry to be pushed

By investing in its German sites, Volkswagen, as one of the country’s largest industrial players, is contributing to a strong German economy, while continuing to push the country’s transformation into a more sustainable and more digital future with long-term job security. After Saxony, Lower Saxony will become Germany’s second center of electric mobility.

In Salzgitter, the Group will invest around one billion euros in the strategically important battery technology. In conjunction with its Swedish joint venture partner Northvolt, Volkswagen will build a cell production facility there that will start operation in 2024 and increase the competitiveness of Germany as an industrial location. This is a further key element in the successful transformation of the Volkswagen Group Components division, initiated back in 2015.

At the individual locations, the strategy of consolidating product families at multi-brand plants will be continued in order to leverage even more synergies between the brands and achieve further efficiency gains.

Wolfsburg will add a model to its portfolio: another SUV targeting the European market will roll off the assembly line from 2024. The site already produces the entire Golf family with all its derivatives, the Volkswagen Tiguan and the SEAT Tarraco.

In future, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles will build the all-electric ID. BUZZ1 at its Hanover location, along with three fully electric D-SUV models for other Group brands. The Hanover site is thus accelerating the transformation to electric mobility that has already commenced.

At the Volkswagen’s brand plant in Emden, the transformation is also progressing rapidly: while the construction work for the switch to electric mobility is fully on track, the second electric model for the site has now been defined. In addition to the ID.42, the four-door all-electric Volkswagen Aero1 is scheduled to be manufactured there from 2023.

At the same time, the Passat currently built in Emden will be produced in Bratislava, Slovakia, starting in 2023 – together with the ŠKODA SUPERB family – which will leverage synergies within the vehicle family here, too. Moving production of the SUPERB from the Czech plant in Kvasiny to Bratislava will give ŠKODA the necessary capacity in the Czech Republic to carry out the brand’s growth plan.

 

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10 hours ago, udderlyoffroad said:

Exactly how much range can a 13 Amp socket dump into an EV overnight?  Mate of mine's Tesla takes several days to charge fully on 13amps.  That isn't a problem for him as he's not doing long drives at the moment.

But, if you think the current free-for-all charging at motorway services is going to continue, you are mistaken.

Where are you getting these figures from anyway?

30kv battery will take 12 hours to charge on 13amp socket cable at 2.4kvh, 22kv 9 hours. Home charge point will take 8 hrs for 30kv, 6 hours for 22kv if vehicle charges at 3.6kv or 4hrs and 3hrs if it charges at 7.2kv. Tesla’s bigger batteries take longer, you would need a home charge point to charge one overnight.

as to where I get figures from, we run a Peugeot ev van at work and I did CSE maths!!

 

Edited by triumphant59
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9 minutes ago, triumphant59 said:

30kv battery will take 12 hours to charge on 13amp socket cable at 2.4kvh, 22kv 9 hours. Home charge point will take 8 hrs for 30kv, 6 hours for 22kv if vehicle charges at 3.6kv or 4hrs and 3hrs if it charges at 7.2kv. Tesla’s bigger batteries take longer, you would need a home charge point to charge one overnight.

as to where I get figures from, we run a Peugeot ev van at work and I did CSE maths!!

 

Good summary. One thing to remember is that you rarely charge from 0%. In three years I have only once returned home with less than 10% and on average I charge from 60%. 

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