SNP Conference speech

[oowee]

52 minutes ago, grrclark said:

Serious answer as requested.

On the basis of the current Scottish public spending profile then there is no economic argument advanced by the SNP that would permit that level of spend without running a significant structural deficit.   So to answer your question Ditchy, on a like for like spending basis the money would have to come from borrowing.

As it happens that is no different to the UK on both counts, we (UK) spend more than we earn and we fill the gap by borrowing.  The difference of course is related to the UK's current ability to borrow relative to an iScotland.  For those in England, and particularly the usual suspects on every PW thread on this subject, who proclaim that the Scot's are a millstone around England's neck and we only survive thanks to England's handouts; If Scotland cuts loose then England still runs a significant structural deficit and your borrowing costs will ramp up significantly too so don't be kidding yourself on that you are going to be much better off, you're not. You'll be worse off too.

Scotland's secession from the UK would significantly impact on the rUK balance of trade and have a much bigger impact on the rUK balance sheet when the discussion turned to divvying up the UK assets, i.e. the maritime exclusive economic zones of both UK waters c. 300k sq.mi and the much larger c.2,300k sq.mi of UK overseas dependent territories, same goes for the actual overseas territory land masses, the associated mineral, oil & gas rights with them, the share of the real estate value of UK embassies, etc.  In short rUK would have much less collateral and a poorer net cash position to borrow against, hence borrowing costs would rise, leading to more pennies servicing the debt and further reduction in public spend. 

As for Europe, the current SNP policy, post secession, of Sterlingisation will prohibit entry to the EU, not because of politics and what the Spanish might say, but because it is actually against current EU treaty and as we have seen through the Brexit negotiations the EU are not keen to breach treaties.  For those that might be interested this is covered in the Accession (Copenhagen) Criteria.  The nationalists argue that the criteria is not absolute and there can be a negotiated pathway, however significantly more likely that the newest member states that had to conform to the accession criteria would veto any entry long before Spain did on the basis of the Catalan question.  I personally think the Spanish issue is much less relevant than many believe.

So the bigger question is how could iScotland prosper?  By becoming much less dependent on public sector income, by becoming a low tax low regulation economy, by a dramatic shift in the profile of our education to encourage entrepreneurism, by dramatically increasing our productivity efficiency and taking advantage of the productivity surplus capacity, by radically overhauling our healthcare and social welfare programme to significantly reduce the level of non contributory populace from the near 25% it is at right now.

Of course absolutely none of that is part of any agenda of the nationalists, instead their own growth commission report suggested 10 years of significant austerity to get to a point of parity of income versus expenditure.

With the right policies and social outlook it would take 2 generations to get to the point where iScotland could be in a significantly better place than it is now and I wholeheartedly believe it could be a very prosperous small nation, but sadly the narrative of the current nationalist campaign doesn't talk about realities, it is content to let people believe in disingenuous fantasy.

Is this not the same argument we had over brexit? Its not a matter for the head but more the heart. 

I think one of the biggest untapped resource for iScotland could be leverage of the Higher Education sector and associated strong research base. 

[Gordon R]

grrclark - we will have to disagree about how bright Sturgeon is. I think she is a low level politician out of her depth at national level. 

If we accept she is bright, why can she not solve the problems of the NHS and education in Scotland? She doesn't seem capable of effective management, despite the subsidy. How will she manage without it? She strikes me as a female version of Salmond - all bluster.

How long before he is back in the fold?

[grrclark]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

Is this not the same argument we had over brexit? Its not a matter for the head but more the heart. 

I think one of the biggest untapped resource for iScotland could be leverage of the Higher Education sector and associated strong research base. 

It is very much a heart versus head argument, it’s more extreme than Brexit though.

Agreed on higher education and research, but it desperately needs to change to realise its potential. It used to be very good, but education in general in Scotland has slipped.  

There are pockets of brilliance of course, but there is an awful lot of mediocrity making up the numbers.  

1 hour ago, Gordon R said:

grrclark - we will have to disagree about how bright Sturgeon is. I think she is a low level politician out of her depth at national level. 

If we accept she is bright, why can she not solve the problems of the NHS and education in Scotland? She doesn't seem capable of effective management, despite the subsidy. How will she manage without it? She strikes me as a female version of Salmond - all bluster.

How long before he is back in the fold?

She is focussed on independence Gordon and her cabinet are light weight.  It is very much a party that revolves around the leader, quite cultish.

As regards her smarts look at her public satisfaction ratings relative to BoJo on covid.  Statistically Scotland is marginally worse for deaths and our care home deaths were a real shocker, yet she portrays that image of being on top, that caring humility and empathy.  All rubbish of course, but she is a very good and shrewd politician.  Again, not really something to boast about, being a great snake oil seller.

Relative to England the Scottish NHS does perform slightly better I think, but it’s not something to boast about.  Education is much of a muchness across Scotland and England.  Neither are spectacular.

If some in the party had their way Salmond would be back now. I think she needs to depart the top job first though.

[Blackpowder]

Having lived near the Border all my life , near enough to skim a stone across Tweed into Northumberland, I have always had as many Northumbrian/ English friends as I have had Scottish.   They might talk different, and I can assure you that  a mile difference the accent and turn of phrase was entirely different.  The UK might not be perfect but it is a thousand times more so than the corrupt EU which seems a dumping ground for failed politicians so they can earn mega euros .   Heaven forbid that the SNP aims are ever realised, - leave UK join EU and customs to pass every time I visit our major shopping centre.   There are some nasty people in that organisation if their facebook rants are anything to go by,  many would fall foul of their own anti hate talk laws, of that I am quite sure.   Yesterday on Radio 4 when wee Niccy was questioned about the low life expectancy in her home area and constituency she  firmly placed the blame on previous administrations.

Blackpowder

[JDog]

7 minutes ago, Blackpowder said:

Having lived near the Border all my life , near enough to skim a stone across Tweed into Northumberland, I have always had as many Northumbrian/ English friends as I have had Scottish.   They might talk different, and I can assure you that  a mile difference the accent and turn of phrase was entirely different.  The UK might not be perfect but it is a thousand times more so than the corrupt EU which seems a dumping ground for failed politicians so they can earn mega euros .   Heaven forbid that the SNP aims are ever realised, - leave UK join EU and customs to pass every time I visit our major shopping centre.   There are some nasty people in that organisation if their facebook rants are anything to go by,  many would fall foul of their own anti hate talk laws, of that I am quite sure.   Yesterday on Radio 4 when wee Niccy was questioned about the low life expectancy in her home area and constituency she  firmly placed the blame on previous administrations.

Blackpowder

If the restoration and repair on Chain Bridge ever gets finished you will need a passport to get across if the SNP has its way.

[Blackpowder]

7 minutes ago, JDog said:

If the restoration and repair on Chain Bridge ever gets finished you will need a passport to get across if the SNP has its way.

Coldstream Bridge, Norham Bridge, Paxton Toll , Redden Border, Lamberton Toll  how anyone in their right mind who lives around here can support the snp is an eternal puzzle.

Blackpowder

[Aled]

I've read these discussions on Scottish independence and like others here i have no real opinion either way. I however would like to ask the Scots on here a question. I have not heard any discussion during these debates on any other constitutional scenarios other than the present situation or Independence. Is there any interest in other potential suggestions such as Crown Dependency like Isle of Man or the Channel Island? Please note,  I'm asking a question, not offering an opinion. 

Cheers

Aled  

[JDog]

Are there any SNP supporters on PW?

[Bobba]

13 minutes ago, Aled said:

I've read these discussions on Scottish independence and like others here i have no real opinion either way. I however would like to ask the Scots on here a question. I have not heard any discussion during these debates on any other constitutional scenarios other than the present situation or Independence. Is there any interest in other potential suggestions such as Crown Dependency like Isle of Man or the Channel Island? Please note,  I'm asking a question, not offering an opinion. 

Cheers

Aled  

I’ve not seen this issue discussed in regards to Scotland. But I have seen articles where both The Orkney and The Shetland Islanders are exploring the option of Crown Dependancy. This makes me wonder to what extent. If any, it would sway Scottish voters if, before the vote, The Islanders announced that they were not going to be part of any independent Scotland.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Bobba

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Now that would put the proverbial "cat amongst the pigeons"

[Bigbob]

It scares me every chance the SNP get the bring up the independence to rally voters , the last time we had this once in a generation vote they where going to pay for it will Oil revenue well that went tits up and there was no plan B 

The way they are throwing money at covid  the income tax will have to rise and the age of retirement as the few that do work pay off the covid bill ,My kids and grandkids will be paying off this covid bill for the rest of there working life 

Its fine for Sturgeon etc when she ***** it up shes going to walk away with her big first minister pension and the rest will have a Mp's pension a dam sight more than many other oap's will be on when the prices go up , bills get higher 

Why cant see just do as she said A once in a generation vote , and lets get threw this covid  first 

[harkom]

22 hours ago, ditchman said:

.obviously dosnt have trouble sleeping at night...

with her girlfriend. No issue with that ...but why does she put on a front of a normal ( m/f) couple with a "husband" ?

[ditchman]

16 minutes ago, harkom said:

with her girlfriend. No issue with that ...but why does she put on a front of a normal ( m/f) couple with a "husband" ?

didnt know that nicola was ac/dc...is that true ?

 

has the SNP factored in that when they leave they will settle up with their share of the national debt................

[Scully]

28 minutes ago, harkom said:

with her girlfriend. No issue with that ...but why does she put on a front of a normal ( m/f) couple with a "husband" ?

Eh? Isn’t her husband Peter Murrell? Isn’t he a bloke? 

[grrclark]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

Eh? Isn’t her husband Peter Murrell? Isn’t he a bloke? 

There is much talk that it is a facade, i’ve even heard mutterings from relatively senior figures in the Scottish Government (non MSPs), but they are as predisposed to salacious gossip as anybody else.

10 hours ago, JDog said:

Are there any SNP supporters on PW?

There are a few, which seems to be odd given the nature of this community, but as has been said there is no shortage of oddity surrounding the SNP.

10 hours ago, Aled said:

I've read these discussions on Scottish independence and like others here i have no real opinion either way. I however would like to ask the Scots on here a question. I have not heard any discussion during these debates on any other constitutional scenarios other than the present situation or Independence. Is there any interest in other potential suggestions such as Crown Dependency like Isle of Man or the Channel Island? Please note,  I'm asking a question, not offering an opinion. 

Cheers

Aled  

There has been some talk towards more of a federalist arrangement between the UK home nations, but nothing other than independence (regardless of the cost) will satisfy the fervent supporters of nationalism. 

[Scully]

12 minutes ago, grrclark said:

There is much talk that it is a facade, i’ve even heard mutterings from relatively senior figures in the Scottish Government (non MSPs), but they are as predisposed to salacious gossip as anybody else.

 

Well there you go; everdays a school day and all that. 
He is a bloke though.....isn’t  he? 😳

[henry d]

It's concerning for me and my wife, both now retired and both on Scottish public sector pensions as we are moving back to England; will we be paid in sterling, euros, groats? Will it be sterling because they can't/won't go for indy, if they get indy will it be sterling but at a different level to the rUK sterling? Euros, similar concerns? We've loved living here, but life changes direction and we are leaving and strangely enough I can only feel a little negative about how things may turn out if there is a yes vote.

[grrclark]

33 minutes ago, Scully said:

Well there you go; everdays a school day and all that. 
He is a bloke though.....isn’t  he? 😳

🤣🤣 Yes he is. A very forgetful one (topical satire that is)

[Aled]

Thanks for the reply grrclark, i'm sure Bojo said something back in 2014/15, but i can't seem to find his comments, so i cant guarantee that. 

Cheers Aled

Edited December 1, 2020 by Aled

[ditchman]

51 minutes ago, henry d said:

It's concerning for me and my wife, both now retired and both on Scottish public sector pensions as we are moving back to England; will we be paid in sterling, euros, groats? Will it be sterling because they can't/won't go for indy, if they get indy will it be sterling but at a different level to the rUK sterling? Euros, similar concerns? We've loved living here, but life changes direction and we are leaving and strangely enough I can only feel a little negative about how things may turn out if there is a yes vote.

move to norfolk...get paid in groats and invest the rest in turnip futures..........

[SpringDon]

14 hours ago, harkom said:

with her girlfriend. No issue with that ...but why does she put on a front of a normal ( m/f) couple with a "husband" ?

So what? It’s up to her. If that is the level that pro-union argument is reduced to then they should be independence immediately. 

[johnphilip]

1 hour ago, SpringDon said:

So what? It’s up to her. If that is the level that pro-union argument is reduced to then they should be independence immediately. 

Would you care to explain a little more as I don't have a clue what you are talking about to be honest 

[Guest cookoff013]

I think it wouldnt be good for scotland.

The reason NS cited a chance for a new referendum is "things have changed".

the world has changed, and it has not. I watched her broadcast. I thought it was nonsense. Where she thinks the UK, EU, and Scotland will be in 20 years isnt going to be milk and honey. I just cant see any benefit at all. For scotland, the eu or the uk. I didnt want scotland to leave. Some scots i have met have been anti english. But thats a small number.

 

 

[derbyduck]

38 minutes ago, cookoff013 said:

. Some scots i have met have been anti english. But thats a small number.

Yes iv'e met a few and they are usualy eating a bag of chips that wiegh 20KG  whilest defiying gravity and mistaking me for someone called Jimmy!

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by derbyduck
thick

[henry d]

On 01/12/2020 at 21:37, ditchman said:

move to norfolk...get paid in groats and invest the rest in turnip futures..........

Sounds good, do you know anyone in turnip futures I`ve got a couple of groats and a magic bean?