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I know this topic is always coming up ..and im always neutral on the subject...whether scotland splits off or not...the scottish will always have a warm welcome here in norfolk

QUESTION

Where the hell is the money going to come from ...after "they" have ceceeded from the union ...to balance the scottish budget and allow them to prosper...( i have been told it would be unlikely that they would be accepted into the E.U....as it would be a severe drain on the E.U. budget)

this question has been asked many times and no one has come up with a sensible answer................have i missed the answer ...am i stupid...dont i understand

is anyone the wiser...........come on you scots lads....you must have your ear to the ground up there ?

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Like most stuff it depends on who you ask from what I have looked into.

If you try the Nationalist side its basically North sea oil (or at least last time when it was actually worth something unlike currently), tourism and exports with the assumption they will be welcome into the EU straight off and can still use the pound without the rest of UK inc not doing things with interest rates and other fiscal bits they then have no control over as its not their currency.

 

If you go for the Unionist view North sea oil basically a diminishing resource and currently not worth much, Using the pound is great if you want to but you basically get no say on how its used or how policy is set on it, getting loans for big stuff could be an issue as you dont have your own currency, chances of quick EU membership is nil as the Spanish will torpedo any deal so the Catalans dont get any funny ideas that they can do it to and take the majority of Spain's industrial capacity with them.

Really who can tell apart from if you get a time machine and go 20 years into the future and see if its all Milk and Honey or as I think Greece without the nice climate and any EU handouts.

Addendum this is also not taking into account that a hell of a lot of current government departments have stuff up north of the border and that would all have to move south. This is before you get into Trident and the big military basis up there with all the money they bring in. 

 

Edited by Zetter
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39 minutes ago, Zetter said:

Like most stuff it depends on who you ask from what I have looked into.

If you try the Nationalist side its basically North sea oil (or at least last time when it was actually worth something unlike currently), tourism and exports with the assumption they will be welcome into the EU straight off and can still use the pound without the rest of UK inc not doing things with interest rates and other fiscal bits they then have no control over as its not their currency.

 

If you go for the Unionist view North sea oil basically a diminishing resource and currently not worth much, Using the pound is great if you want to but you basically get no say on how its used or how policy is set on it, getting loans for big stuff could be an issue as you dont have your own currency, chances of quick EU membership is nil as the Spanish will torpedo any deal so the Catalans dont get any funny ideas that they can do it to and take the majority of Spain's industrial capacity with them.

Really who can tell apart from if you get a time machine and go 20 years into the future and see if its all Milk and Honey or as I think Greece without the nice climate and any EU handouts.

Addendum this is also not taking into account that a hell of a lot of current government departments have stuff up north of the border and that would all have to move south. This is before you get into Trident and the big military basis up there with all the money they bring in. 

 

Strikes me Zetter hits the nail on the head.  If there is a majority in Scotland who want true independance then fine by me but do not come running with a begging bowl. Inedpendance means just that.  It is obvious to any right thinking person that the UK works very well if the politicians allow it to do so.  Problem being you get idiots such as Sturgeon and that Welsh bloke stopping anyone having a drink BUT some idiots must vote for them.

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41 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

Strikes me Zetter hits the nail on the head.  If there is a majority in Scotland who want true independance then fine by me but do not come running with a begging bowl. Inedpendance means just that.  It is obvious to any right thinking person that the UK works very well if the politicians allow it to do so.  Problem being you get idiots such as Sturgeon and that Welsh bloke stopping anyone having a drink BUT some idiots must vote for them.

Yep, he beat me to it. Sturgeon is no more than a Mk2 Ewing. She couldn't pull it off then when the oil was at its peak and Sturgeon will also eventually disappear without trace.

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What she refuses to accept is that she cannot get into the EU. Scotland's potential economy will not permit this - not to mention lack of a currency - and Spain will veto their entry. Spain fears that letting Scotland into the EU will give rise to areas of Spain demanding independence. 

It's a non-starter, but no-one seems willing to put her straight. Despite some saying she comes over well, speaks better than Boris etc, she is a one trick pony and as thick as two short planks. She can't run the NHS, Education, but has an inflated ego which tells her she can do anything. If in doubt - shout "Strong for Scotland".

I do not begrudge the Scots the Barnett money, but I do wish that she would stop saying funds are being withheld from her. Take the money away and see how she manages.

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 No idea were the money would come from , but to them its not about how we would manage , its about the hate of the English . Being  dictated to by the English . As they seem to think they are . The problem is they hold the most seats here , but I wonder all those who voted for the SNP , did the vote snp to become free , or there dislike of Labour and the Conservative  parties . 

Me personally  I hate everything they stand for , any political  party that is dividing  a country into , cause devides between families and friends  . I hate this idea.

We are going through the most evil thing seen in our life time,  this virus , nearly 50% of deaths in care homes  not a very good record for this government  here in Scotland. 

At one point there was a figure for what it would cost , to have our own currency  it was billions . They seem to think if they do well in the new year with the voting of the elections , they have the right to push forward for another vote . 

 

 

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why do people keep saying the scots hate the english thats poppy cock why would scots holiday in england or vice versa loads of english folk live in scotland as do scots live in england  the hate bit started as a few english places would not take scottish notes we dont refuse english notes so now you know where the problem started and got legs added

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People complain about how bad the NHS is an all that and high unemployment. Ok so if you vote for independence how are you going to pay for your own health service, border force, navy, defence forces, police force, education system, welfare benefits etc etc. Do they expect the rest of the UK to gift them a load of stuff in some sort of deal? There's only a deal to be had if they have something to offer in return which apart from whisky and tourism is essentially nowt. Or do they want the UK government to give them handouts for abou 10 years til they "get on their feet"

How will miss krankie tell her people the day after independence that sorry even though it takes a fortnight to see a doctor you now have to pay £50 for the privilage. 

I have never seen a bigger farce of a political party since the monster raving loony party, full of demands and noise but if you cannot answer all the questions as to where the money will come from in a truthful way then Scotland will fall on its 'hole no matter how much you scream strong for Scotland.

In my opinion she wants to go down in history as the person who achieved independence, then like David Cameron after brexit she will abdicate her responsibilities and resign saying it's better for someone from the younger generation to lead Scotland into the future, no doubt she will clear off with a healthy bank account too.

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47 minutes ago, scarecrow243 said:

why do people keep saying the scots hate the english thats poppy cock why would scots holiday in england or vice versa loads of english folk live in scotland as do scots live in england  the hate bit started as a few english places would not take scottish notes we dont refuse english notes so now you know where the problem started and got legs added

I am not saying all Scots hate the English  , but there are many who do . But you belive what you like .

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Serious answer as requested.

On the basis of the current Scottish public spending profile then there is no economic argument advanced by the SNP that would permit that level of spend without running a significant structural deficit.   So to answer your question Ditchy, on a like for like spending basis the money would have to come from borrowing.

As it happens that is no different to the UK on both counts, we (UK) spend more than we earn and we fill the gap by borrowing.  The difference of course is related to the UK's current ability to borrow relative to an iScotland.  For those in England, and particularly the usual suspects on every PW thread on this subject, who proclaim that the Scot's are a millstone around England's neck and we only survive thanks to England's handouts; If Scotland cuts loose then England still runs a significant structural deficit and your borrowing costs will ramp up significantly too so don't be kidding yourself on that you are going to be much better off, you're not. You'll be worse off too.

Scotland's secession from the UK would significantly impact on the rUK balance of trade and have a much bigger impact on the rUK balance sheet when the discussion turned to divvying up the UK assets, i.e. the maritime exclusive economic zones of both UK waters c. 300k sq.mi and the much larger c.2,300k sq.mi of UK overseas dependent territories, same goes for the actual overseas territory land masses, the associated mineral, oil & gas rights with them, the share of the real estate value of UK embassies, etc.  In short rUK would have much less collateral and a poorer net cash position to borrow against, hence borrowing costs would rise, leading to more pennies servicing the debt and further reduction in public spend. 

As for Europe, the current SNP policy, post secession, of Sterlingisation will prohibit entry to the EU, not because of politics and what the Spanish might say, but because it is actually against current EU treaty and as we have seen through the Brexit negotiations the EU are not keen to breach treaties.  For those that might be interested this is covered in the Accession (Copenhagen) Criteria.  The nationalists argue that the criteria is not absolute and there can be a negotiated pathway, however significantly more likely that the newest member states that had to conform to the accession criteria would veto any entry long before Spain did on the basis of the Catalan question.  I personally think the Spanish issue is much less relevant than many believe.

So the bigger question is how could iScotland prosper?  By becoming much less dependent on public sector income, by becoming a low tax low regulation economy, by a dramatic shift in the profile of our education to encourage entrepreneurism, by dramatically increasing our productivity efficiency and taking advantage of the productivity surplus capacity, by radically overhauling our healthcare and social welfare programme to significantly reduce the level of non contributory populace from the near 25% it is at right now.

Of course absolutely none of that is part of any agenda of the nationalists, instead their own growth commission report suggested 10 years of significant austerity to get to a point of parity of income versus expenditure.

With the right policies and social outlook it would take 2 generations to get to the point where iScotland could be in a significantly better place than it is now and I wholeheartedly believe it could be a very prosperous small nation, but sadly the narrative of the current nationalist campaign doesn't talk about realities, it is content to let people believe in disingenuous fantasy.

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6 minutes ago, grrclark said:

Serious answer as requested.

On the basis of the current Scottish public spending profile then there is no economic argument advanced by the SNP that would permit that level of spend without running a significant structural deficit.   So to answer your question Ditchy, on a like for like spending basis the money would have to come from borrowing.

As it happens that is no different to the UK on both counts, we (UK) spend more than we earn and we fill the gap by borrowing.  The difference of course is related to the UK's current ability to borrow relative to an iScotland.  For those in England, and particularly the usual suspects on every PW thread on this subject, who proclaim that the Scot's are a millstone around England's neck and we only survive thanks to England's handouts; If Scotland cuts loose then England still runs a significant structural deficit and your borrowing costs will ramp up significantly too so don't be kidding yourself on that you are going to be much better off, you're not. You'll be worse off too.

Scotland's secession from the UK would significantly impact on the rUK balance of trade and have a much bigger impact on the rUK balance sheet when the discussion turned to divvying up the UK assets, i.e. the maritime exclusive economic zones of both UK waters c. 300k sq.mi and the much larger c.2,300k sq.mi of UK overseas dependent territories, same goes for the actual overseas territory land masses, the associated mineral, oil & gas rights with them, the share of the real estate value of UK embassies, etc.  In short rUK would have much less collateral and a poorer net cash position to borrow against, hence borrowing costs would rise, leading to more pennies servicing the debt and further reduction in public spend. 

As for Europe, the current SNP policy, post secession, of Sterlingisation will prohibit entry to the EU, not because of politics and what the Spanish might say, but because it is actually against current EU treaty and as we have seen through the Brexit negotiations the EU are not keen to breach treaties.  For those that might be interested this is covered in the Accession (Copenhagen) Criteria.  The nationalists argue that the criteria is not absolute and there can be a negotiated pathway, however significantly more likely that the newest member states that had to conform to the accession criteria would veto any entry long before Spain did on the basis of the Catalan question.  I personally think the Spanish issue is much less relevant than many believe.

So the bigger question is how could iScotland prosper?  By becoming much less dependent on public sector income, by becoming a low tax low regulation economy, by a dramatic shift in the profile of our education to encourage entrepreneurism, by dramatically increasing our productivity efficiency and taking advantage of the productivity surplus capacity, by radically overhauling our healthcare and social welfare programme to significantly reduce the level of non contributory populace from the near 25% it is at right now.

Of course absolutely none of that is part of any agenda of the nationalists, instead their own growth commission report suggested 10 years of significant austerity to get to a point of parity of income versus expenditure.

With the right policies and social outlook it would take 2 generations to get to the point where iScotland could be in a significantly better place than it is now and I wholeheartedly believe it could be a very prosperous small nation, but sadly the narrative of the current nationalist campaign doesn't talk about realities, it is content to let people believe in disingenuous fantasy.

Youv'e got my vote grr

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14 minutes ago, grrclark said:

Serious answer as requested.

On the basis of the current Scottish public spending profile then there is no economic argument advanced by the SNP that would permit that level of spend without running a significant structural deficit.   So to answer your question Ditchy, on a like for like spending basis the money would have to come from borrowing.

As it happens that is no different to the UK on both counts, we (UK) spend more than we earn and we fill the gap by borrowing.  The difference of course is related to the UK's current ability to borrow relative to an iScotland.  For those in England, and particularly the usual suspects on every PW thread on this subject, who proclaim that the Scot's are a millstone around England's neck and we only survive thanks to England's handouts; If Scotland cuts loose then England still runs a significant structural deficit and your borrowing costs will ramp up significantly too so don't be kidding yourself on that you are going to be much better off, you're not. You'll be worse off too.

Scotland's secession from the UK would significantly impact on the rUK balance of trade and have a much bigger impact on the rUK balance sheet when the discussion turned to divvying up the UK assets, i.e. the maritime exclusive economic zones of both UK waters c. 300k sq.mi and the much larger c.2,300k sq.mi of UK overseas dependent territories, same goes for the actual overseas territory land masses, the associated mineral, oil & gas rights with them, the share of the real estate value of UK embassies, etc.  In short rUK would have much less collateral and a poorer net cash position to borrow against, hence borrowing costs would rise, leading to more pennies servicing the debt and further reduction in public spend. 

As for Europe, the current SNP policy, post secession, of Sterlingisation will prohibit entry to the EU, not because of politics and what the Spanish might say, but because it is actually against current EU treaty and as we have seen through the Brexit negotiations the EU are not keen to breach treaties.  For those that might be interested this is covered in the Accession (Copenhagen) Criteria.  The nationalists argue that the criteria is not absolute and there can be a negotiated pathway, however significantly more likely that the newest member states that had to conform to the accession criteria would veto any entry long before Spain did on the basis of the Catalan question.  I personally think the Spanish issue is much less relevant than many believe.

So the bigger question is how could iScotland prosper?  By becoming much less dependent on public sector income, by becoming a low tax low regulation economy, by a dramatic shift in the profile of our education to encourage entrepreneurism, by dramatically increasing our productivity efficiency and taking advantage of the productivity surplus capacity, by radically overhauling our healthcare and social welfare programme to significantly reduce the level of non contributory populace from the near 25% it is at right now.

Of course absolutely none of that is part of any agenda of the nationalists, instead their own growth commission report suggested 10 years of significant austerity to get to a point of parity of income versus expenditure.

With the right policies and social outlook it would take 2 generations to get to the point where iScotland could be in a significantly better place than it is now and I wholeheartedly believe it could be a very prosperous small nation, but sadly the narrative of the current nationalist campaign doesn't talk about realities, it is content to let people believe in disingenuous fantasy.

sooooo..............sturgeon aint that stupid...she knows this...and she intends to use it as a stick to beat us with until she gets whats she wants..........to the total detriment of the remaining union.......and to the extreme benifit of scotland.............

a typical case of 

"i care not for your predickerment jack ....i am sufieciently provided for...."

there seems to be total hate guiding her ....not politics

 

just to add........edit......

i ...if i remember right....she was interviewed a few years ago and mentioned that out of all the leaders in the world....she was the one at the top of the list that had recieved the most death threats !!!................obviously dosnt have trouble sleeping at night...

Edited by ditchman
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13 minutes ago, ditchman said:

sooooo..............sturgeon aint that stupid...she knows this...and she intends to use it as a stick to beat us with until she gets whats she wants..........to the total detriment of the remaining union.......and to the extreme benifit of scotland.............

a typical case of 

"i care not for your predickerment jack ....i am sufieciently provided for...."

there seems to be total hate guiding her ....not politics

 

just to add........edit......

i ...if i remember right....she was interviewed a few years ago and mentioned that out of all the leaders in the world....she was the one at the top of the list that had recieved the most death threats !!!................obviously dosnt have trouble sleeping at night...

Like any negotiator she would try to do the best by her own side I guess.  And no, she is far from being thick, she is a very smart and shrewd operator, as was her predecessor.  They are/were big political fish in a very small pond.

She is driven by ideology and if she gets the result she wants then she will slink off satisfied without any great regard for the consequence.

I have said it before, if Scotland did vote for independence, ironically, the folk who will lose out the most are so many of those who are so vocal in favour of it.  I wont really lose out, i'll probably do very well out of it in short to medium term from the multiple opportunities it would bring as part of the transition even if it comes with a much bigger tax burden, but I will be in the minority.  Still wouldn't vote for it.

Edited by grrclark
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19 minutes ago, grrclark said:

Like any negotiator she would try to do the best by her own side I guess.  And no, she is far from being thick, she is a very smart and shrewd operator, as was her predecessor.  They are/were big political fish in a very small pond.

She is driven by ideology and if she gets the result she wants then she will slink off satisfied without any great regard for the consequence.

I have said it before, if Scotland did vote for independence, ironically, the folk who will lose out the most are so many of those who are so vocal in favour of it.  I wont really lose out, i'll probably do very well out of it in short to medium term from the multiple opportunities it would bring as part of the transition even if it comes with a much bigger tax burden, but I will be in the minority.  Still wouldn't vote for it.

Having got a few facebook friends who are quite vociferous in their call to leave/ for independence and knowing their backgrounds it does indeed from all I have read and your comments appear to be a case of turkeys voting for Christmas.

Personally I think its bad idea all round and will not really benefit anyone in the short to medium term

Edited by Zetter
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