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Plumbing building work costs going balistic!


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1 hour ago, Mungler said:

I can see the government willing on a little inflation to wash away some of the debt / borrowings to hand but I am not sure what the knock ons are.

From what I see at the coal face, if there is any long term increase in interest rates to traditional rates of old like 5% (but hey, that was so long ago now to almost be ancient history) then it’s the end of everything - whilst the cost of borrowing is so low and there is real world inflation running at a higher rate than interest rates then people are happy to borrow to spend, punt, invest or buy and it’s that activity that keeps stuff circulating and moving around in an economy that is in the doldrums.

I am in the process of buying another B2L with my business partner because I can see that the value of money is going to decline in real terms but older constructed houses (you remember the ones with gardens and off street parking) in the right parts of the South East aren’t going to go out of fashion any time soon and certainly not inside the interest only mortgage fixed term.

Indeed, whilst we have been through a pandemic (apparently), this country is still over populated and the pandemic is only likely to affect population to the extent that boys and girls can’t get together like they used to and so there will be a dip in birth rates (and not because of a dramatic death rate).

The RICS stats are fascinating when you look at year on year how many houses we need and how few we are building despite what successive governments promise. People always need somewhere to live. 

Anyone see the select committee suggestion that there should be an annual property tax 0.006% of value, and such that if you live in a £1m house you pay an additional £6000 a year tax. It’s a pain that they mess with the housing market and not the financial markets with such regularity. If you punt £250k of your pension on the FTSE that fine and dandy, but if you take that £250k buy a house and become a landlord, well that’s abhorrent. 

We’ve just organised a mortgage on our next house when that completes.  The 5 year fixed rates were so cheap with no arrangement fees that it wasn’t worth going for a tracker mortgage.

Our industry has been interesting as I swear people are gambling on art as an investment.  We keep shipping Banksy prints at the moment particularly the girl with the balloon the current series seem to go for around £125k and there were 600 copies made I just don’t get it. Still we can’t complain the figures were better last year than the year before and we were closed for 3 months.  

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On 18/02/2021 at 08:50, SpringDon said:

Inflation is literally what it says. It is dilution of the money supply. The fiat currencies have been shielded from the effects of inflation by exporting it to lower wage economies. This process is slowing and will soon stop.

The stock markets are so “high” as a result of the colossal money printing exercise by central banks since 2009, and given a fresh boost in the pandemic. 

Interest rates are already effectively negative and it only a small step (already being considered by boe) to actual negative interest.

We are close to stagflation but currently, although prices are rising, inflation is still low. But how long can that continue? And when combined with a shrinking economy....

Prices are rising because of the current government strategy on printing more currency and, as you rightly say, bebasing the currency (not to be confused with money). On the last run, BoE announced they were printing another £150 Billion. That was 50% more than most economists were expecting. 

On 18/02/2021 at 08:17, AVB said:

There are two things that don't reconcile with the state of the economy - Inflation and Share Prices. Both should be tanking but they aren't. For years the value of shares have been detached from company fundamentals, one reason being that with interest rates being so low their is only one place for investors to put their money and that's the equity and bond markets. Inflation is a strange one. Obviously people are still spending and research is showing that many people have saved so much money during lockdown that they are splurging on building projects and luxury items which is compensating for the downturn in some sectors. I see the government lifting the shackles on inflation, keeping interest rates low, for a while to let the economy grow. It depends on how high it gets. 'Reasonable' inflation isn't a bad thing.    

 

 

I thought that for investors to benefit from bonds, the interest rate had to go down. If it goes up then they stand to lose out and not in a small way. Just what an analyst friend of mine told me. 

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Workwise most trades have never been busier as people are using lockdown to catch up on jobs.

So prices go up as demand grows.

My son runs a ready mix concrete company in Nottingham. His suppliers have increased costs to him, he has to pass that onto customers. Plus demand, he's almost always fully booked up at least a week in front. For ready mix - that's super busy as work normally comes by the day or 1 to 2 days ahead. 

So busy he's buying new trucks and setting more staff on to cope.

Currently he's having to walk away from jobs he'd normally grab, or offer overquotes so he doesn't get them to retain his regular customer base. 

Perhaps your man over quoted for the job as he doesn't want it, too much time/risk and not enough profit in it. 

Incidentally: Anyone with a class 2 HGV (C licence) living in Nottingham, wanting an immediate start day job. No nights out. No previous mixer experience as full training given. Get in touch.

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If it’s like this now during lockdown just imagine what it’s going to be like come the summer when most of this **** is behind us & many many people will have surplus cash which they have stashed away over the last year. Families will be desperate to catch up on a lost year ( you can’t buy time ).

Edited by blackbird
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A few years back I went to look at a job in Hampstead , we did fibrous plaster work , not only the run of the  mill stuff but match to existing work in a lot of listed and heritage buildings , on giving the people the quote the women shrieked in horror and pointed out her husband was a bank manager and what I wanted was more per day than her husband earned , I told her best thing was to get her old man retrained in the fibrous job , but remember he won’t be going to work in a suit , he certainly won’t have a company car , he will be up to his arm pits in cold water , he will have to start work long before nine and certainly won’t be knocking off early , on top of which he may have to work away quite often ..but on the plus side we did have a good craic most days ...we never got the job .😂

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