Brexit again

[Rewulf]

16 hours ago, oowee said:

This is exactly my point there is no single entity it can't have life of its own. Things come and go. leaders change, thinking changes.

As is any successful civilisation/society, those that dont bend to the will of changing times and environments will decline,.
History teaches us this in many harsh ways...

Yet the EU doggedly follows its path towards federalism and a European one state system, yet the clearest signs possible , indicate this isnt wanted, except by those core believers in the dogma, the EU elites.

Yes we want frictionless trade , yes we want seamless travel, a single currency could even work ~(eventually, after fiscal parity was achieved across the board) But why does that have to come with a bloated , unelected gang of elites , with no concept of what the people of Europe really want . mainly because theyve never asked them ?
If the European project is so successful, why are countries like Greece an economic wreck, why does Hungary and Ppland reject the ethos of Brussels (among others) and why did the UK decide to leave ?

If Brussels is so intent on ever closer union , why doesnt Belgium and the Netherlands just become one country , for all intents they are that closely aligned, it wouldnt be a massive logistical issue.
Why dont Slovakia and the Czech republic join up ?
Simply , they prefer their own identity, yet the EU commission fights this very concept, mini hitlers like Verhofstadt decry 'nationalism' as the scourge of Europe, and promise to stamp it out.
Is it any wonder their is no popularity for their elitist dreams , except in their own minds ?

If the EU want to move with the times and gain some ground , they need to stop peddling this globalist nonsense , become more democratic (ie , have a vote on the commission heads/president) and drop the one state rhetoric.
Become the thing we were promised, not the 4th reich its turning into .

[Stonepark]

For those not paying attention, the EU is not going down the Federated Republic route of the USA but instead going down the Communist Collective route of China with hints of facism without the outright violence to date.

Europeans, like Britons have a mixture of individualists and sheep,  the sheep baa for the masters to tell them what to do and make up an ever increasing number supported by social systems which started out as safety nets but are now effectively Universal Basic Income in all but name, whilst the individualists point out the follies of their ways but are ignored until the systems break down.

We are at one of those inflection points now, the UK has broken free of the large 'mill wheel' of the EU and a lot of the 'EU' politicians resent being 'abandoned' to their own fates at this point as the freefall has started, hence the antagonistic disposition of the EU on everything from fishing to Northern Ireland.

With the sanctions on Russian Energy now causing significant damage to the EU industry, the freefall has suddenly accelerated, and whilst the UK is out if the EU, we will still be in affected but the damage will be significantly less than had we stayed. (This alone was worth Brexit!)

What gave the socialists complete control in Germany in the 30's was the deprivation of a country being held back by economic damage, reparations and limitations due to WW1, the socialists are again on the march in the EU and this time the next army marching in Europe will be bearing an EU badge one one shoulder and a Swastika on the opposite, just as the Ukranian "EU" trained army.

From Encyclopaedia Britannica....

"Fascism : a way of organizing a society in which a government ruled by a dictator(s) controls the lives of the people and in which people are not allowed to disagree with the government"

 

The above definition neatly covers the EU headed by Von Der Lyon and "advised" by Klaus Schwab, the control if COVID narritive (a cold and substituting flu), vaccine narrative, climate emergency, health passports, banning if fossil fuels, whilst all the time those in the centre if power get richer and richer and cast normal laws and conventions aside, Bidens JR laptop and Biden (10% for the big guyfrom Ukraine), Epstein and his clients, Trudeaux being £300m richer in 5 years on a salary of £800k, whilst undertaking Trucker convoy lockdown and arrests against the existing laws if Canada, etc etc

Whilst in the UK, we have also been subject to the same forces, hopefully we will (if we can keep politics honest and focused on what is best for the UK) be able to get past this, however as with the EU a large amount of our politicians have already been captured (perhaps as much as 40% of the Tories, and certainly at least 90% of Labour\Libdems\Greens\SNP) and this requires to be reversed on order to ensure that we do not follow the EU down the rabbit hhol into hell.

 

[oowee]

30 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

 

We are at one of those inflection points now, the UK has broken free of the large 'mill wheel' of the EU and a lot of the 'EU' politicians resent being 'abandoned' to their own fates at this point as the freefall has started, hence the antagonistic disposition of the EU on everything from fishing to Northern Ireland.

With the sanctions on Russian Energy now causing significant damage to the EU industry, the freefall has suddenly accelerated, and whilst the UK is out if the EU, we will still be in affected but the damage will be significantly less than had we stayed. (This alone was worth Brexit!)

 

 

 

Net cost so far £30 bn and counting. 

[Rewulf]

30 minutes ago, oowee said:

Net cost so far £30 bn and counting. 

Again , who and how has this been quantified ?

Many such figures were bandied about , before , during , and after Brexit, and yet , no real evidence has been published or proved that Brexit has caused this.

[Rem260]

32 minutes ago, oowee said:

Net cost so far £30 bn and counting. 

Worth every penny or its equivalent 30 bn salty tears.

[oowee]

5 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Again , who and how has this been quantified ?

Many such figures were bandied about , before , during , and after Brexit, and yet , no real evidence has been published or proved that Brexit has caused this.

OBR analysis.

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

[manthing]

Some numbers i noticed this year.

Just a quick one for those constantly knocking the UK in favour of the EU.
GDP for 2019
EU  €16.4 trillion
UK  £1.9 trillion 

GDP for 2021
EU  €14.4 trillion
UK  £2.2 trillion

It appears the EU GDP has basically stagnated but the UK GDP has grown.

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

OBR analysis.

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

I see . Confirmation bias , backed by assumptions , with no hard data to back them up.
Heres some actual data.

 The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2021 was just under 2.2 trillion British pounds, an increase of approximately 152.3 billion pounds compared to the previous year when the size of the UK economy was 2.04 trillion pounds. The drop in GDP between 2019 and 2020 was brought about by the Coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, which caused severe damage to many industries, particularly in the service sector upon which the UK economy is heavily reliant.
 

 A return to growth in 2021

Annual GDP growth figures show that the UK economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2021, compared with a record fall in GDP in 2020, when the economy shrank by 9.4 percent. It is forecast that the UK economy will grow by 3.9 percent in 2022, and then by 1.8 percent in 2023. Recent monthly growth figures for April 2022 show that the UK economy has not grown since January 2022, after zero growth was reported in February, and negative growth rates of 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent were experienced in March and April 2022, respectively. The 2022 cost of living crisis in the UK driven by high energy and food inflation, has caused households to curb consumer spending,
 

 How big is the UK economy compared to others?

As of 2020, the UK had the sixth largest economy in world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third largest economy, is of a very similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.34 percent in 2022 to 2.15 percent by 2027.  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/

So , where is this cliff edge ? This phantom £30 billion ?
The UK has suffered very little at the hands of vengeful europhobes, and bounced back better than most from covid.
These are the facts.
We are the 2nd biggest economy in Europe behind Germany , and will be for some time....DESPITE Brexit.

[12gauge82]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

OBR analysis.

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

Even if it were true, which I doubt. We were warned of all this and far worse before we voted, yet the country voted out anyway, I'm very happy to have left and even if brexit was bad for the people, we voted for it. We have left and there is no mandate to re-enter. Remoaners are damaging our country bythese constant attempts at reversing the vote, or attempting to deliver brino instead of brexit and constant talk of doom and gloom. Remoaners are the problem, not brexit. 

[discobob]

29 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Even if it were true, which I doubt. We were warned of all this and far worse before we voted, yet the country voted out anyway, I'm very happy to have left and even if brexit was bad for the people, we voted for it. We have left and there is no mandate to re-enter. Remoaners are damaging our country bythese constant attempts at reversing the vote, or attempting to deliver brino instead of brexit and constant talk of doom and gloom. Remoaners are the problem, not brexit. 

In fact - it is more than likely the Remoaners that are causing our current problems to be as bad - funny how EU status isn't reported on the news etc.... It is to make us think that we shouldn't have left in the first place....

[old man]

20 hours ago, Boybrit said:

I have given up caring, it is now what it is and the UK will sink or swim according to many uncontrollable factors that we have not yet seen, we stopped being able to dictate to more than half the world when they all gained independence up till the 1960s and now this island is a small world player with little manufacturing and even less agri land being available by the week and too much uncontrolled immigration by benefit chancers. It don't look too good for the UK for the future with or without the EU IMO. My apprenticeship from 1965-1970 was at the end of the golden age looking back now.

Succinctly put.

[oowee]

2 hours ago, discobob said:

In fact - it is more than likely the Remoaners that are causing our current problems to be as bad - funny how EU status isn't reported on the news etc.... It is to make us think that we shouldn't have left in the first place....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61729892

Funny that it is. 

The issue seems more related to the negative impact of Brexit as described by many forecasters coming into effect.  There are unfortunately too many Brexit deniers unable to understand the implications. We have left now we need a plan to get us out of the mess. 

[Rewulf]

16 minutes ago, oowee said:

The issue seems more related to the negative impact of Brexit as described by many forecasters coming into effect.  There are unfortunately too many Brexit deniers unable to understand the implications. We have left now we need a plan to get us out of the mess. 

What mess ?
And these 'many forecasters' ? Im sure theyre not biased remoaners at all are they ? 

[oowee]

4 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

What mess ?
And these 'many forecasters' ? Im sure theyre not biased remoaners at all are they ? 

OECD and the OBR. 

It's clearly a mess when the economy is tanking, the Union is threatened, and we have a labour crisis.

You have to suck it up and look for a way forward rather than trying to deny Brexit has happened. If its all business as usual then we have seriously lost the plot.

I go back to the CBI comment the 'best guarantee of Brexit is an economy that grows and the greatest threat one that does not'. 

[12gauge82]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61729892

Funny that it is. 

The issue seems more related to the negative impact of Brexit as described by many forecasters coming into effect.  There are unfortunately too many Brexit deniers unable to understand the implications. We have left now we need a plan to get us out of the mess. 

No brexit bias from the BBC of course. 

As for a plan "to get us out of this mess" how about remoaners stop complaining that we've left, we embrace brexit and enjoy being an agile independent country again? 

[Rewulf]

15 minutes ago, oowee said:

OECD and the OBR. 

The OECD , a globalist think tank , no one asked for , but we are forced to spend millions a year financing. (Globally around 350 million euros , they are Paris based and work closely with the EU commission)
The OBR, again funded by the tax payer, who gleefully tell us where we are going wrong, while they trouser 6 figure salaries.
Biased ? Of course not !

 

24 minutes ago, oowee said:

It's clearly a mess when the economy is tanking, the Union is threatened, and we have a labour crisis.

The economy is not tanking , its slowing , in line with every other European country, and many other global players.
Its impossible to blame Brexit for this slow down , there is simply no evidence to support it.
The Union is not threatened, end of .
We dont have a labour crisis, we have a government that works with kid gloves, and is devoid of gonads, with an opposition who do not understand where gonads are, or what sex  they belong to.

 

28 minutes ago, oowee said:

I go back to the CBI comment the 'best guarantee of Brexit is an economy that grows and the greatest threat one that does not'. 

The best comment they can come up with was that , how were they funded again ?
Did Brexit affect the economy in last 3 recessions , now this next recession will be nothing to do with people not working for 18 months because of idiotic covid restrictions , furlough, and productivity grinding to a halt, nothing to do with fuel poverty, but everything to do with Brexit ?
I think they all need a bonus for coming up with that one 

[Walker570]

On 22/11/2022 at 08:33, oowee said:

To be fair this is a view older people have often voiced either of the country they live in or of the youth of today. I come back to the words of the CBI. The best guarantor of Brexit is an economy that grows, it's biggest risk is one that doesn't. 

We are dropping behind the larger economies of Europe and something drastic needs to happen. The question we face is where is change going to come from. It's unlikely to be either of the main parties.

Maybe it comes from a break up of the Union (envisaged by Brexit) allowing what's left to focus on the task at hand. Or maybe it comes from some sort of trade alignment. 

I probably will not be here to witness it oowee but sincerely hope you are. 

[Rewulf]

Damn that Farage for wrecking the UK export market ,,, Oh wait , no that cant be right ?

[manthing]

@Rewulf what's the source for that please? BBC keep us all thinking we've got our whatsits in the gutter.

[12gauge82]

9 hours ago, manthing said:

@Rewulf what's the source for that please? BBC keep us all thinking we've got our whatsits in the gutter.

You'll never get an unbiased view that includes the positives of Brexit via main stream media. 

[Vince Green]

Has anybody else noticed that the Eastern Europeans are back?

Round here we had a really big Eastern European community until we left the EU.  Then most of them had to go home.

Now in the past few months I have noticed they are back and in force. The Polish, Lithuanian, Romanian etc cars and vans are back driving round.

You hear them talking as you go round the supermarkets so it's pretty obvious they have returned.

This can only be a relaxation of government policy and the only reason I can see for that is to ease the staff shortages that a lot of industries are facing.

However if this means flooding the jobs market with cheap labour again that our own workers can't compete with then we are back to square one.

Who authorised this I wonder ?

[Rewulf]

13 hours ago, manthing said:

@Rewulf what's the source for that please? BBC keep us all thinking we've got our whatsits in the gutter.

The ONS , so a pretty solid source .

Heres the complete doc https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers-web-version

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

The ONS , so a pretty solid source .

Heres the complete doc https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers-web-version

Yes how strange this hasn't been a leading story, if it were the other way around we wouldn't hear the end of it, in fact, even though brexit hasn't harmed the UK, listening to the media you'd think it was the cause of all this countrys problems. 

[Rewulf]

49 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Yes how strange this hasn't been a leading story, if it were the other way around we wouldn't hear the end of it, in fact, even though brexit hasn't harmed the UK, listening to the media you'd think it was the cause of all this countrys problems. 

I was waiting for one of the remain camp to point out the small drop in exports in 2020/21 

But even covid didnt destroy our export market, and if it hadnt happened , we would be showing even better figures now.

[oowee]

The data is for UK Exports not UK exports to the EU which area a significant proportion of trade. Its certainly good news.

How much better would the picture have been without Brexit.

While overall trade volumes have recovered, the UK’s trade performance has been poor relative to other advanced economies since Brexit. Among G7 countries, the UK has performed the worst since the end of the transition period (see figure 3). Broadly consistent with the data so far, the OBR projected in its March 2022 forecast that imports and exports will be around 15% lower in the long term due to the UK leaving the EU.