Energy Crisis Looming?

[Vince Green]

The National Grid estimate that in the next ten years the demand for electricity could increase six fold. What is more worrying is that they haven't got a clue how they are going to meet it

The reasons include

Electric vehicles. Not just cars but buses and goods vehicles

Converting away from gas to electric home heating and cooking

New homes

AI and electronic technology proliferation.  This is actually a big one.

We are not alone, America and Europe are in the same situation and its a really serious problem potentially. Not wishing to be over dramatic but the implications are life changing. Without electricity we cannot function

[JohnfromUK]

Well, a good start is to keep fossil fuels where used now (i.e. most transport, gas heating and cooking etc.).  

I don't see really why "AI and electronic technology proliferation" shoyuld be "a big one", though I can see it will be a factor.

[Vince Green]

12 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Well, a good start is to keep fossil fuels where used now (i.e. most transport, gas heating and cooking etc.).  

I don't see really why "AI and electronic technology proliferation" shoyuld be "a big one", though I can see it will be a factor.

There was a good article in the Guardian about three months ago saying that new housing developments are on hold because they are waiting for grid enhancements that are not happening. 

I was surprised by the impact of AI but apparently the applications use a lot of power. I don't know a lot more than that because I can't visualise what the applications may be 

Fossil fuels are a bit political because we get too much of them from Russia.  That's the real reason why they are so keen to move to other sources ie electricity, nothing to do with the environment.

Edited August 31 by Vince Green

[JohnfromUK]

The grid is certainly a problem.  My house currently has a supply rated at max 80 Amps - which is around 16 KW.  They won't supply more because the capacity of "the system" supplying "the area" where I am is near capacity.  Not sure how local/wide an area they mean.

My heating is supplied currently by gas and has a peak capacity of 42 KW.  To replace the gas with electricity would need around 24 KW (three phase) to supply a fairly substantial heat pump installation.  Allowing on top of that for the normal cooking, lighting, and household usage, I would need around 35 KW capacity as a minimum.  Add in an electric car charging and that would be even more. 

This is not going to happen in any realistic timescale.

Most of rural UK is the same - in that the electricity distribution network is near capacity.  There must be literally tens of thousands of miles of cable that need upgrading and tens of thousands of sub stations, transformers, switchgear etc.

[Vince Green]

I know of someone, a workmate of my stepdaughter, who bought a new build  house in Cornwall with a heat pump for the heating.

It would appear that the pump isn't beefy enough for the job it is required to do. In the winter months it is running flat out all the time to just keep the house warm. They are (along with the other house owners) in dispute with the builders so it will be interesting to see the outcome. 

I haven't heard of anyone who has a heat pump that thinks they are great

[Weihrauch17]

58 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

The National Grid estimate that in the next ten years the demand for electricity could increase six fold. What is more worrying is that they haven't got a clue how they are going to meet it

The reasons include

Electric vehicles. Not just cars but buses and goods vehicles

Converting away from gas to electric home heating and cooking

New homes

AI and electronic technology proliferation.  This is actually a big one.

We are not alone, America and Europe are in the same situation and its a really serious problem potentially. Not wishing to be over dramatic but the implications are life changing. Without electricity we cannot function

There is a crisis of everything looming with Labour running things into the ground.

Edited August 31 by Weihrauch17

[oowee]

Just now, Vince Green said:

I know of someone, a workmate of my stepdaughter, who bought a new build  house in Cornwall with a heat pump for the heating.

It would appear that the pump isn't beefy enough for the job it is required to do. In the winter months it is running flat out all the time to just keep the house warm. They are (along with the other house owners) in dispute with the builders so it will be interesting to see the outcome. 

I haven't heard of anyone who has a heat pump that thinks they are great

There are thousands. It's new tech and it needs training to install. Even using it requires a new mind set. A well installed system should be 20 % cheaper than gas to run. 

Gas boilers will be phased out in 2025 on new homes. This will speed up training and acceptance. 

NG just had a new rights issue to raise £7bn from investors as part of the process of upgrading the grid. Vat has been removed from batteries for the Home. Solar gives a payback at less than five tears it's all part of the solution. 

[sam triple]

Wait Labour will sort it out 🤔 along with everything else the tories left behind ! My mrs is a a newly elected councillor and posed the question at a planning meeting as to why new builds weren’t fitted with solar panels , no one not even the greens could answer her ! We are self sufficient as can be with panels battery and log burner 

[JohnfromUK]

7 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

It would appear that the pump isn't beefy enough for the job it is required to do. In the winter months it is running flat out all the time to just keep the house warm.

Heat pumps are intended to run 24 hours a day.  It's a different mindset that is needed.  They are quite 'low heat level' systems and the low temperatures they produce need to have a near 'steady state' condition.

With gas/oil heating we are used to fast high heat levels where you have a timeswitch (maybe these days a 'smart' one) and heat up when the area is occupied.  Heat pumps cannot do that as the temperatures they can generate are lower, so you have to have them on for very long periods, possibly 24/7.  If you are out at work all day, this is not a very good system, but is 'less bad' for those whose premises are occupied all day.  Currently it will always be relatively expensive because electricity costs (per KW) around 22p against gas at 6p.

[oowee]

4 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Heat pumps are intended to run 24 hours a day.  It's a different mindset that is needed.  They are quite 'low heat level' systems and the low temperatures they produce need to have a near 'steady state' condition.

With gas/oil heating we are used to fast high heat levels where you have a timeswitch (maybe these days a 'smart' one) and heat up when the area is occupied.  Heat pumps cannot do that as the temperatures they can generate are lower, so you have to have them on for very long periods, possibly 24/7.  If you are out at work all day, this is not a very good system, but is 'less bad' for those whose premises are occupied all day.  Currently it will always be relatively expensive because electricity costs (per KW) around 22p against gas at 6p.

A properly installed heat pump can achieve an efficiency rating of over 400%. 

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, oowee said:

A properly installed heat pump can achieve an efficiency rating of over 400%. 

Possibly on a mild day, but the vast majority of air sourced ones drop MUCH lower than that at low air temperatures.  Ground source can be much less variable, but you need a big area and deep gathering pipes, which is hugely expensive.  Cannot be done under trees either.

For air sourced Coefficient of Performance (COP) of 2.5 to 2.8 is typical.  I quote from here https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/air-source-heat-pump/performance

"That is the ratio of heat produced per unit of electricity consumed when pumping the heat. Efficiency performance tends to decrease during periods of severe cold.

For comparison, in mild weather COP can be about 4.0, but when the temperature drops to 0°C, the COP can also decline to 2.5. On average, the COP of typical heat pumps has a seasonal variation of about 2.5-2.8. However, there are heat pump models having higher performance in mild climates."

In practice, for adequate capability on a cold winter night (which is when heating is most needed) at -5C, a COP of 2.5 is the best that is likely.

Figures of 4 are 'salesman speak' and will not be achieved under conditions when heat is most needed.

[Yellow Bear]

16 minutes ago, oowee said:

A properly installed heat pump can achieve an efficiency rating of over 400%. 

Best quoted is 300% but air temp for this needs to be above 5C, below this efficiency drops dramatically, figures vary from 80% to 150% at zero and this is with a new system.  Maintenance costs are high for air source although better for ground source, where air temp is not a problem. Lifespan is also dramatically lower than a gas boiler.  This is particularly relevant in costal areas or those with moderate air pollution.  Worst I encountered was 3 years on an installation adjacent to Manchester ship canal.

 

EDit John appears to have covered this whilst I was typing with better figures.

Edited August 31 by Yellow Bear

[oowee]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Best quoted is 300% but air temp for this needs to be above 5C, below this efficiency drops dramatically, figures vary from 80% to 150% at zero and this is with a new system.  Maintenance costs are high for air source although better for ground source, where air temp is not a problem. Lifespan is also dramatically lower than a gas boiler.  This is particularly relevant in costal areas or those with moderate air pollution.  Worst I encountered was 3 years on an installation adjacent to Manchester ship canal.

With luck I am about to buy in to all of this stuff as we down size.  A new house with air source, solar, and battery. I read that the stuff has dramatically improved over the last few years but a big problem is poor instalation. ? 

I am expecting it to be very good 🤞. The builder specialises in this stuff but it's quite a challenge looking at it from the outside. The house is currently generating a cash surplus of energy but it is summer. 

 

[Raja Clavata]

3 posters before the topic gets politicised 😂😂😂

It’s not just AI, it’s data in general. 

AWS alone are building at least three data centres between North Weald and the Thames crossing in Essex. It’s no coincidence that the one closest to the Thames crossing is slap bang on top of 400kV distribution.

We need nuclear and SMRs but they won’t be ready in time.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

I am expecting it to be very good

It will be good when it is warm outside.  It will be much less good when it is cold outside.  Not only do you need more heat (as it's cold!), but it is MUCH harder to gather the heat because the efficiency drops very quickly - and you also have to start forced defrosting of the outside evaporator as the moisture in the air freezes onto it and dramatically decreases it's efficiency.

There is a new build 'eco' house I walk past on my dog walks.  It has 3 phase power and solar panels etc.  The owners are pleased, but say it is expensive to run in winter.

[oowee]

12 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

3 posters before the topic gets politicised 😂😂😂

It’s not just AI, it’s data in general. 

AWS alone are building at least three data centres between North Weald and the Thames crossing in Essex. It’s no coincidence that the one closest to the Thames crossing is slap bang on top of 400kV distribution.

We need nuclear and SMRs but they won’t be ready in time.

The developing balancing platforms including groups of home owners with batteries will be part of the solution. 

For me this is exactly why our political structure is not fit for purpose. We are incapable of long term decision planning and delivery. 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

The developing balancing platforms including groups of home owners with batteries will be part of the solution. 

 

Until there is a quantum leap in battery technology (which might, or might not come with solid state batteries) this cannot happen large scale.

Batteries based on lithium are too dependant on lithium which is scarce and expensive/energy heavy to produce and also hard to recycle.  Sodium is more widely available, but has lots of other problems (of which being explosive in water is just one).

In time a suitable better technology will emerge - but political meddling is the last thing that is needed.  What you need is;

1. The science to discover, choose and develop the right technology from the many being investigated
2. The engineering to get that technology to a 'produce-able', safe and sustainable level of maturity
3. Once it is safe, cheap, reliable and can be made in volume with material that is practical and abundant - it will take off, just as coal, oil and electricity did in their eras.

Politicians and 'state meddling' - keep out.

[Raja Clavata]

9 minutes ago, oowee said:

The developing balancing platforms including groups of home owners with batteries will be part of the solution. 

For me this is exactly why our political structure is not fit for purpose. We are incapable of long term decision planning and delivery. 

Agreed, such matters are sovereign topics which need continuity.

[TOPGUN749]

11 hours ago, Vince Green said:

I know of someone, a workmate of my stepdaughter, who bought a new build  house in Cornwall with a heat pump for the heating.

It would appear that the pump isn't beefy enough for the job it is required to do. In the winter months it is running flat out all the time to just keep the house warm. They are (along with the other house owners) in dispute with the builders so it will be interesting to see the outcome. 

I haven't heard of anyone who has a heat pump that thinks they are great

I’d like to know the running costs compared to a combi gas boiler!

[Old Boggy]

9 minutes ago, TOPGUN749 said:

I’d like to know the running costs compared to a combi gas boiler!

I can see the benefit of a ground source heat pump on a new build with underfloor heating which in winter could run 24/7 and thus providing a constant level of heat. A radiator system would have to have the radiators resized to cater for the much lower flow and return temperatures to achieve the same output. However, the GSHP becomes inefficient to heat the hot water temperature to say 60 degrees as electrical energy is then required to boost from the maximum temperature of the GSHP output of around 13-15 degrees up to 60. These were the findings when I was involved in installing GSHPs 10 to 15 years ago, but no doubt things have moved on and equipment has become more refined and efficient since then. 

OB

[Down South]

10 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

It’s not just AI, it’s data in general

Very true, if you have ever been in a server farm that runs all these on line services you will understand the issues immediately. The processing power is huge and so is the amount of heat they generate. The rooms have to be chilled to keep the temperature at a level that stops the whole thing from overheating. The energy consumption is mind boggling just so we can use social media or shop on line. It’s not going away.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Old Boggy said:

I can see the benefit of a ground source heat pump on a new build with underfloor heating which in winter could run 24/7 and thus providing a constant level of heat. A radiator system would have to have the radiators resized to cater for the much lower flow and return temperatures to achieve the same output. However, the GSHP becomes inefficient to heat the hot water temperature to say 60 degrees as electrical energy is then required to boost from the maximum temperature of the GSHP output of around 13-15 degrees up to 60. These were the findings when I was involved in installing GSHPs 10 to 15 years ago, but no doubt things have moved on and equipment has become more refined and efficient since then. 

OB

Very much this /\

GSHP output temperature these days is around 45 to 50 C. with a max of 55 C.  You need around 60 - 65 C for the hot water in the cylinder.  Ground temperature is fairly constant (at the depth used for thr collector, so outside temperature has less effect

This is the elephant in the room for Air Sourced because;

• Under mild conditions, when the heat pump is doing a COP of 3.5, the effective price per KWh is around 6.3p per KWh
• Under cold conditions (below 0 C air temperature the heat pump is doing a COP of 2, the effective price per KWh is around 11p per KWh

This compares with gas (at 80% efficiency which is very conservative for a modern system) of around 6.9p per KWh - so in mild weather you are saving around 0.5p per KWh with a heat pump, but in cold weather (when you use most fuel of whatever type) gas saves around 4p per KWh.

Ultimately energy (KWh) from electricity is very expensive compared to gas - and that is always going to drive cost comparisons.

[Yellow Bear]

11 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

GSHP output temperature these days is around 45 to 50 C. with a max of 55 C.  You need around 60 - 65 C for the hot water in the cylinder.  Ground temperature is fairly constant (at the depth used for thr collector, so outside temperature has less effect

Even 15 years ago a 40/45 c temperature was regularly obtained with a slinky at 6/700 mm deep.  Bore holes did better but cost is prohibitive. 

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, From the title i thought it was a post on Pensioners heating allowance, But i can say,  My Son who lives in a small village up on the Downs where there is no gas or even street lights, A neighbour has had a Heat Pump heating system put in under a Benifit grant, She told me it has been nothing but trouble from day 1 and still not fixed, one problem not able to get a steady heat , either to hot or to cold, to this day it is still not working as Manufacture Warrant

[Old Boggy]

1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

Very much this /\

GSHP output temperature these days is around 45 to 50 C. with a max of 55 C.  You need around 60 - 65 C for the hot water in the cylinder.  Ground temperature is fairly constant (at the depth used for thr collector, so outside temperature has less effect

This is the elephant in the room for Air Sourced because;

• Under mild conditions, when the heat pump is doing a COP of 3.5, the effective price per KWh is around 6.3p per KWh
• Under cold conditions (below 0 C air temperature the heat pump is doing a COP of 2, the effective price per KWh is around 11p per KWh

This compares with gas (at 80% efficiency which is very conservative for a modern system) of around 6.9p per KWh - so in mild weather you are saving around 0.5p per KWh with a heat pump, but in cold weather (when you use most fuel of whatever type) gas saves around 4p per KWh.

Ultimately energy (KWh) from electricity is very expensive compared to gas - and that is always going to drive cost comparisons.

You`re absolutely right John. My post should have referred to the ground temperature as being fairly constant at 13-15 degrees. As you rightly say, The GSHP can take water temperature up to max 55 deg for heating (preferably underfloor) but has to be boosted to 60 plus for hot water. With a combination of GSHP and SV panels the higher water temperature can be achieved given suitable outside conditions.

We did a commercial installation (Windfarm on shore offices) designed by others (We were just the sub-contractors) that combined solar roof panels, air source heat pump linked to an A/C system with reverse heat pump such that when the A/C was on the heat exchanger (evaporator) then recycled the excess heat recovered from the A/C system back into the ASHP.

This was great great in theory but the inhabitants of the offices complained bitterly about the lack of heating and hot water. In reply to a phone call that I received my response was :-

1) "Do you have snow on the roof?"  I knew that there was as it was January and snowing hard.

2) "Is the Air Conditioning on?"        I knew that they weren`t using the A/C in winter.

My reply was as follows :-

Well, I`m very sorry, but under those conditions I`m afraid your system just won`t work. Please put your complaints to the system designers.

Bearing in mind these were on shore offices for a 100 unit off shore windfarm installation, you would have thought that sufficient electricity could be provided to at least boost temperatures up to avoid the above scenario, but no, these designers knew better !!!  I did suggest a quick fix solution to provide an electrically heated HWS cylinder for the hot water with a heat exchanger to boost the heating. The engineer involved said "Yes, that`s a good idea, I wish I`d thought of that". I did wonder sometimes what planet some of these `Boffins` were on. Common sense appeared not to be part of their University syllabus.

OB