7daysinaweek Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 I know a few on here have dabbled in crypto in the past and with Bitcoin, the 'daddy' of the crypto market hitting it's all time high this morning, just shy of 60k, it will be a very interesting 12-15 months to the end of the bull cycle. My crypto picks/narratives are gaming coins, smart contracts, oracles, some top memes and of course Bitcoin. Ai also looks promising. Memes coins are straight up degenerate gambling! What are your picks ? To the moon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holloway Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 6 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said: I know a few on here have dabbled in crypto in the past and with Bitcoin, the 'daddy' of the crypto market hitting it's all time high this morning, just shy of 60k, it will be a very interesting 12-15 months to the end of the bull cycle. My crypto picks/narratives are gaming coins, smart contracts, oracles, some top memes and of course Bitcoin. Ai also looks promising. Memes coins are straight up degenerate gambling! What are your picks ? To the moon! I don't understand any of that 😐 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 10 Author Report Share Posted November 10 Just now, holloway said: I don't understand any of that 😐 Then the internet is your friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaymo Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 I’m up 60% on my Bitcoin but 40% or so down on my etherium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holloway Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 42 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said: Then the internet is your friend. Thankyou . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 10 Author Report Share Posted November 10 1 minute ago, holloway said: Thankyou . 👍 Follow the thread if it starts interest you. Crypto can be a bit of a rabbit hole, depends how far you want to go. Cryptography is a interesting, both from a technology standpoint and a speculative one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 10 Author Report Share Posted November 10 38 minutes ago, Jaymo said: I’m up 60% on my Bitcoin but 40% or so down on my etherium. 👍 Etherium in my personal opinion will, with a greater probability soon be back at all time high and beyond, that is how the previous crypto cycles have played out looking at past trend and narratives, and this is now the 4th cycle since the inception of btc. Within the cycle, once btc reaches it peak of dominance, and dominance starts to diminish in it's relation to the altcoins, capital then flows from btc into Etherium and other layer one blockchains such as eth and solana, then the high end altcoins, then the midcap altcoins, then the smallcap altcoins. Btc dominance is showing some signs of weakening at present, because dominace falls, that does not always mean that btc price will fall, it may 'chop' sideways or continue to rise, it simply means it's current ratio to the total value of the whole crypto market. Btc and Eth are 'solid' holdings in my personal opinion. The meme coins and some high end altcoins have had some good moves in the past 6 months since coming out of the bear cycle. Solana has done well, however, tradfi non retail investors are now buying etherium and that will be a bullish case for eth both from a speculative stance and equally from it's use withing traditional finance. It's holdings are the largest market cap of smart contracts across the whole crypto market. All we can do is look at past trends, on chain data, current macro and micro trends and probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mel b3 Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 1 hour ago, 7daysinaweek said: 👍 Etherium in my personal opinion will, with a greater probability soon be back at all time high and beyond, that is how the previous crypto cycles have played out looking at past trend and narratives, and this is now the 4th cycle since the inception of btc. Within the cycle, once btc reaches it peak of dominance, and dominance starts to diminish in it's relation to the altcoins, capital then flows from btc into Etherium and other layer one blockchains such as eth and solana, then the high end altcoins, then the midcap altcoins, then the smallcap altcoins. Btc dominance is showing some signs of weakening at present, because dominace falls, that does not always mean that btc price will fall, it may 'chop' sideways or continue to rise, it simply means it's current ratio to the total value of the whole crypto market. Btc and Eth are 'solid' holdings in my personal opinion. The meme coins and some high end altcoins have had some good moves in the past 6 months since coming out of the bear cycle. Solana has done well, however, tradfi non retail investors are now buying etherium and that will be a bullish case for eth both from a speculative stance and equally from it's use withing traditional finance. It's holdings are the largest market cap of smart contracts across the whole crypto market. All we can do is look at past trends, on chain data, current macro and micro trends and probabilities. I was just about to say that🤥😇😁. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd90 Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 I made about £1600 off £100 I put into a meme coin as a laugh. My JasmyCoin went up a fair bit then then crashed… about broke even. Pulled it all out as a small profit when my life was off on maternity. Probably stick some more into Etherium over coming months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaymo Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 Had some in Gold which flourished until a few days ago where it has dropped slightly since 6th Nov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 10 Author Report Share Posted November 10 34 minutes ago, mel b3 said: I was just about to say that🤥😇😁. I know you are secretly the 'crypto king' Mel. Lol! Hope you are keeping well. 26 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said: I made about £1600 off £100 I put into a meme coin as a laugh. My JasmyCoin went up a fair bit then then crashed… about broke even. Pulled it all out as a small profit when my life was off on maternity. Probably stick some more into Etherium over coming months. A 16x from a meme coin is very good going LLyod, meme coins are some of the most degenerate plays in the crypto space. Highly speculative, almost gambling to a greater degree. I have made some crazy gains and losses from them, not for the faint hearted Money is money, tradfi can sit with a million dollar high latency trading systems and traditional finance qualifications and not make any of the % gains that crypto offers, that is why tradfi is moving into crypto. What I have learnt from well over a decade plus in following crypto closely on a daily basis, is that fundamentals don't always matter, not in the short term anyway, trends and narratives are what can make the largest gains and also losses. In crypto, ' A rising tide lifts most boats' at some point. Fortunately and unfortunatley your boat can be lifted astronomically then crash down even further just as quick, some boats get wrecked, some survive to see another journey and some don't even get to sail. 🦈pool springs to mind with some of the crudcoins, the good news is that there are increasingly better on chain tools which can read the blockchain contract for that specific coin and give a security score, giving insights into the risks of associated to it. Reading liquidity capital flow into high risk coins among several other things is essential. For most people, who has time or the inclination to learn how to do that, and a quick punt of a small amount of money to some, say under 20 quid or a little more, they may be happy to put into something. My strategy is whatever I assess to be a moderate to high risk crypto, is that I expect with a greater degree that it could or will go to zero and I am ready to accept if it does and move on quickly. No doubt, it is high risk stakes with some of the meme and altcoins. Bitcoin and Ethereum are now accepted as matured assets in the finacial markets and offer a increasing appeal of diversity to traditional investemtment and reatil investor portfolios. From a risk reward point they offer better value than all the other altcoins, that is the general sentiment of the crypto market and my personal opinion. Like with lots of investements and trades, the earliest adopters take the greatest risk, however, if things play out in favour, they also make the greatest gains. The old adage, do not invest anything that you are not happy to see flitted into the wind. Good luck with your dabbling. 👍 17 minutes ago, Jaymo said: Had some in Gold which flourished until a few days ago where it has dropped slightly since 6th Nov Gold still doing very good, still seen a flight to safety from inflation, plenty more to go me thinks, that is my personal opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mel b3 Posted November 10 Report Share Posted November 10 12 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said: I know you are secretly the 'crypto king' Mel. Lol! Hope you are keeping well. All good , thankyou very much sir. I trust that you and yours are doing well ?. I've thought about crypto a few times , but , try as I might, I just can't wrap my head around it all . For me it would just be a pure gamble , and I'm just not a gambler 🙁. My only real experience is a few mates that got involved in crypto , and they all got a spanking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 10 Author Report Share Posted November 10 Thank you Mel. We are all doing fine. Like lots of things, you don't need a fundamental understanding if you wish to have a dabble, the same way you would not need to know the ins and outs of a well known stock, you simply set up an account and buy the stock. Crypto is much the same, plenty of top tier cryptos with large amounts of liquidity in them (meaning good amounts of buyers to sellers and vice versa, as for something to sell, there has to be a buyer on the other side) and setting up a account such as Coinbase is simple. Once set up, you link your bank account to the exchange after a simple verification check. You can deposit as little as £10 if I recall correctly, then simply go to the list of many cryptos on the site and press buy, this then puts the crypto in your online wallet in the account. If you make some gains and wish to sell, you go to the sell tab, choose sell into a stablecoin such as USDT or USDT, then choose convert into GBP and can be withdrawn back to your bank account. Coinbase has over 50 million registered users and over 10 million registered users who buy or sell a cryptocurrency at least twice a month, for users in the UK it is regualted by the FCA. I have used it for over a decade, albeit a lot less than I used to, however, I have never had any issues and I last used it a couple of weeks ago. The only thing I would say is check your bank supports GBP deposits and withdrawal from a crypto site. Mine does, some in the UK do not. Any significant amounts of crypto holdings should be transferred off the exchange into what is termed as a cold wallet in my opinion, however, for most people, once they have reached certain level of holdings, the learning curve becomes fast and they are usually crypto intuitive at speed. My advice to anyone who wants to have a go is to set up a couple of accounts on verified platforms such as Coinbase or binance and get used to sending crypto between wallets from one exchange to another, or from the exchange to your cold storage wallet which is another step. As with all things on exchanges there are fees to send crypto from exchange to wallets outside the platform and to exchange into another crypto or what is known as a stablecoin USDT, USDC or fiat (GBP, DOLLAR, EURO ETC) this needs to be kept in mind if you wish to hold crypto off an exchange. Some wallets can have certain cryptos transferred to them for pence or a fraction of a pence, others can run to low pounds to scary high fees that make the transaction cost prohibitive if you are sending or exchanging very small amounts. If I was starting out now I would get the coinbase app on phone or desktop and just trade on that with my bank account linked and treat it as a bit of fun with a small amount. There is a saying in trading that applies to all forms of trading, " time in the market beats timing the market" and this is true in most circumstances. Ultimately the strategy that has proved the most gains for massess in cryptocurrency has been to buy when the crypto dips at lower levels of support and hold over a longer period. Another way is to say buy and have a set level to sell at say 20% gain, obviously it is relative to the amount bought and the selling fees etc which are shown when selling, sending and exchanging. Another is, if the crypto doubles take out your initial £ investment leaving your holding as being free. Sui was a very good buy 12 months ago at round 27p each, today they are £2.30 each with todays trading volume of about a billion dollars, gives you some idea of what good quality coins can do and how much liquidity is in them. I primarily trade off exchanges now and use decentralised exchanges, which is another topic. Some coins are a straight up gamble, others have significant real world use cases and value that are already being adopted for application into the traditional financial rails of the world economy and social economies such as gaming and Ai. I would say that 99.9% of retail investors (joe bloggs) start by just having a dabble, as with even stocks there is an element of risk, the more the stock matures the less the volitility to an extent and this is the same in many cases with crypto. It must however be borne in mind that crypto is still volatile to a greater extent than traditional finance and the risk are in proportion. I am now laughing to myself Mel, this post I have written seems strangely familiar to one I wrote on PW back in 2017, if I recall. You posted similar to the above and you will probably be more confused again after my delerious crypto babble. atb Mel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edtwozeronine Posted November 11 Report Share Posted November 11 Looking into NASDAQ ETFs myself, lots of EFTs look like they jumped after Trump won the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mel b3 Posted November 11 Report Share Posted November 11 7 hours ago, 7daysinaweek said: Thank you Mel. We are all doing fine. Like lots of things, you don't need a fundamental understanding if you wish to have a dabble, the same way you would not need to know the ins and outs of a well known stock, you simply set up an account and buy the stock. Crypto is much the same, plenty of top tier cryptos with large amounts of liquidity in them (meaning good amounts of buyers to sellers and vice versa, as for something to sell, there has to be a buyer on the other side) and setting up a account such as Coinbase is simple. Once set up, you link your bank account to the exchange after a simple verification check. You can deposit as little as £10 if I recall correctly, then simply go to the list of many cryptos on the site and press buy, this then puts the crypto in your online wallet in the account. If you make some gains and wish to sell, you go to the sell tab, choose sell into a stablecoin such as USDT or USDT, then choose convert into GBP and can be withdrawn back to your bank account. Coinbase has over 50 million registered users and over 10 million registered users who buy or sell a cryptocurrency at least twice a month, for users in the UK it is regualted by the FCA. I have used it for over a decade, albeit a lot less than I used to, however, I have never had any issues and I last used it a couple of weeks ago. The only thing I would say is check your bank supports GBP deposits and withdrawal from a crypto site. Mine does, some in the UK do not. Any significant amounts of crypto holdings should be transferred off the exchange into what is termed as a cold wallet in my opinion, however, for most people, once they have reached certain level of holdings, the learning curve becomes fast and they are usually crypto intuitive at speed. My advice to anyone who wants to have a go is to set up a couple of accounts on verified platforms such as Coinbase or binance and get used to sending crypto between wallets from one exchange to another, or from the exchange to your cold storage wallet which is another step. As with all things on exchanges there are fees to send crypto from exchange to wallets outside the platform and to exchange into another crypto or what is known as a stablecoin USDT, USDC or fiat (GBP, DOLLAR, EURO ETC) this needs to be kept in mind if you wish to hold crypto off an exchange. Some wallets can have certain cryptos transferred to them for pence or a fraction of a pence, others can run to low pounds to scary high fees that make the transaction cost prohibitive if you are sending or exchanging very small amounts. If I was starting out now I would get the coinbase app on phone or desktop and just trade on that with my bank account linked and treat it as a bit of fun with a small amount. There is a saying in trading that applies to all forms of trading, " time in the market beats timing the market" and this is true in most circumstances. Ultimately the strategy that has proved the most gains for massess in cryptocurrency has been to buy when the crypto dips at lower levels of support and hold over a longer period. Another way is to say buy and have a set level to sell at say 20% gain, obviously it is relative to the amount bought and the selling fees etc which are shown when selling, sending and exchanging. Another is, if the crypto doubles take out your initial £ investment leaving your holding as being free. Sui was a very good buy 12 months ago at round 27p each, today they are £2.30 each with todays trading volume of about a billion dollars, gives you some idea of what good quality coins can do and how much liquidity is in them. I primarily trade off exchanges now and use decentralised exchanges, which is another topic. Some coins are a straight up gamble, others have significant real world use cases and value that are already being adopted for application into the traditional financial rails of the world economy and social economies such as gaming and Ai. I would say that 99.9% of retail investors (joe bloggs) start by just having a dabble, as with even stocks there is an element of risk, the more the stock matures the less the volitility to an extent and this is the same in many cases with crypto. It must however be borne in mind that crypto is still volatile to a greater extent than traditional finance and the risk are in proportion. I am now laughing to myself Mel, this post I have written seems strangely familiar to one I wrote on PW back in 2017, if I recall. You posted similar to the above and you will probably be more confused again after my delerious crypto babble. atb Mel This one makes much more sense. Probably because I'm reading it at the start of the day , and not at the end, when my brain is tired. I'm not a natural gambler , and I'm quite risk averse when it comes to money , and although I've been a buyer and seller of many things , for many years , I know what I'm doing , so it's never felt like I'm taking risks. Earlier in the year , I came up with a plan . I'm going to start investing overtime pay from work , into something . I'd imagined stocks. It wouldn't be a massive amount of money ( probably never more than £150 per week), but the main attraction was that I've convinced myself it's risk free , as it wouldn't be coming from my main wages , so if I blew it all , it would have no negative side financially. Crypto might become my new hobby. I just need to start doing a bit of overtime now 😩. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old man Posted November 11 Report Share Posted November 11 16 hours ago, 7daysinaweek said: 👍 Etherium in my personal opinion will, with a greater probability soon be back at all time high and beyond, that is how the previous crypto cycles have played out looking at past trend and narratives, and this is now the 4th cycle since the inception of btc. Within the cycle, once btc reaches it peak of dominance, and dominance starts to diminish in it's relation to the altcoins, capital then flows from btc into Etherium and other layer one blockchains such as eth and solana, then the high end altcoins, then the midcap altcoins, then the smallcap altcoins. Btc dominance is showing some signs of weakening at present, because dominace falls, that does not always mean that btc price will fall, it may 'chop' sideways or continue to rise, it simply means it's current ratio to the total value of the whole crypto market. Btc and Eth are 'solid' holdings in my personal opinion. The meme coins and some high end altcoins have had some good moves in the past 6 months since coming out of the bear cycle. Solana has done well, however, tradfi non retail investors are now buying etherium and that will be a bullish case for eth both from a speculative stance and equally from it's use withing traditional finance. It's holdings are the largest market cap of smart contracts across the whole crypto market. All we can do is look at past trends, on chain data, current macro and micro trends and probabilities. OMG, off to lie down again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd90 Posted November 15 Report Share Posted November 15 13th Nov I put £300 into Solana and “invested” it into various coins on an exchange. A couple went down a bit but one did a x10. I have cashed it out and just “reinvested” the money into about 7 other coins. Currently my original £300 is worth about £1150. Could be worth £1 tomorrow 🤣 Degenerate gambling is a good description. If you can pick the upcoming coins that are fairly new (just like if you could pick the winning lottery numbers) it’s big returns. I threw £300 in fully prepared to lose the lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun4860 Posted November 15 Report Share Posted November 15 Excuse my ignorance but does that mean it’s 60k per bitcoin? Or is that per share of bitcoin? Its all foreign to me but sounds interesting if you can afford to lose your initial investment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 15 Author Report Share Posted November 15 25 minutes ago, shaun4860 said: Excuse my ignorance but does that mean it’s 60k per bitcoin? Or is that per share of bitcoin? Its all foreign to me but sounds interesting if you can afford to lose your initial investment Hi shaun, yes that is per 1 single bitcoin, it's actually gone up again since I posted last week, at this current moment it is £72,500 per bitcoin. 100k in the next few weeks I am confident, however, need to always be prepared in the best way you can pyschologically for a very unlikely scenario of a 'black swan' event, which could capitulate the crypto market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd90 Posted November 15 Report Share Posted November 15 57 minutes ago, shaun4860 said: Excuse my ignorance but does that mean it’s 60k per bitcoin? Or is that per share of bitcoin? Its all foreign to me but sounds interesting if you can afford to lose your initial investment £60,000 for 1 “whole” bitcoin, but you can buy 0.1, 0.01,0.001 etc etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted November 15 Report Share Posted November 15 What always worried me about Bitcoin is the future. 20 years ago we were still using Nokia phones and PC computing power…. well, let me put it another way - the Chinese are routinely and busily recording and capturing all US encrypted data and comms traffic for the day in the future there’s computer that can crack the code with ease. Is bitcoin’s encryption solid, but not solid by reference to what is known now. Is it solid from a future advancement of tech currently unknown in the world of tomorrow? That’s where I see the future of bitcoin ending up. In the meantime its price bounces up until the next crash when it goes down and then it’s rinse and repeat. It’s a speculative bouncing ball in the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 15 Author Report Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, Lloyd90 said: 13th Nov I put £300 into Solana and “invested” it into various coins on an exchange. A couple went down a bit but one did a x10. I have cashed it out and just “reinvested” the money into about 7 other coins. Currently my original £300 is worth about £1150. Could be worth £1 tomorrow 🤣 Degenerate gambling is a good description. If you can pick the upcoming coins that are fairly new (just like if you could pick the winning lottery numbers) it’s big returns. I threw £300 in fully prepared to lose the lot. I can see with a greater degree of certainty solana getting up to to the £700 mark by the end of this bull run cycle which by studying past trends should top out in around 300 days from now, give or take a month. We may get a pleasant surprise if the market gives a 'blow off top', and this could take the price to eye watering highs. That is my take on it with the added sentiment of the current crypto market. A 10x is fantastic, the mid and lower altcoins are much more of a risk and as you allude, you may hit a home run with one that makes up for, and exceeds the ones that went into the crypro dumps. That is a good strategy, spread the risk across several cryptos, the coins that genrally do the best in each and every new cycle which is every 4 years are the ones that create a new theme/narrative and that have great social following. Sticking to the top 20 cryptos is the most sensible approach. I move between sensible and sheer degenerate indulgence. Moving into the the crazy world of the far out altcoins is flying by the seat of your pants and as we say, if you enter into the dark realm of the altcoin forest, you should be absolutely prepared to be lose. Good man. That's is the way to play it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 16 Author Report Share Posted November 16 21 minutes ago, Mungler said: What always worried me about Bitcoin is the future. 20 years ago we were still using Nokia phones and PC computing power…. well, let me put it another way - the Chinese are routinely and busily recording and capturing all US encrypted data and comms traffic for the day in the future there’s computer that can crack the code with ease. Is bitcoin’s encryption solid, but not solid by reference to what is known now. Is it solid from a future advancement of tech currently unknown in the world of tomorrow? That’s where I see the future of bitcoin ending up. In the meantime its price bounces up until the next crash when it goes down and then it’s rinse and repeat. It’s a speculative bouncing ball in the short term. So far Bitcoins consensus algorithm has never been broken and has never been counterfeited, that said, nothing is certain but it is less probable. When you hear of bitcoin and crypto hacks that is referring to how people have lost there access key to their bitcoin wallet, not the cracking of the bitcoin code in itself. How I explain it is. Within your bitcoin wallet is a private key that only you, the holder have access to, this is like your email account password. Something that you would never make public. Your public key for your bitcoin wallet which you can have shown publicly for the sending and receiving of bitcoin from p2p or a public exchange to your wallet, that is like your email adress. In order to attempt to hack the bitcoin network, malicious actors would have to attemp what is referred to as a 51% attack on the network in order to gain control of the blockchain. I pulled this from the 'new scientist', the article was written in 2022, as of 2024 supercomputing is now exceeding 1000 qbits. “The transactions get announced and there’s a key associated with that transaction,” says Webber. “And there’s a finite window of time that that key is vulnerable and that varies, but it’s usually around 10 minutes to an hour, maybe a day.” Webber’s team calculated that breaking bitcoin’s encryption in a 10-minute window would require a quantum computer with 1.9 billion qubits, while cracking it in an hour would require a machine with 317 million qubits. Even allowing for a whole day, this figure only drops to 13 million qubits. This is reassuring news for bitcoin owners because current machines have only a tiny fraction of this – IBM’s record-breaking superconducting quantum computer has only 127 qubits, so devices would need to become a million times larger to threaten the cryptocurrency, something Webber says is unlikely to happen for a decade. I have included this link which explains how the bitcoin network works and may help give an understanding in any way better than I can. https://learnmeabitcoin.com/technical/blockchain/51-attack/ I agree, in the very short term it is still largely speculative, however, the utility of Bitcoin is just beginning to be explored. Bitcoin has proven over each of the 4 year previous cycles to be overall, a extremely resilient asset, that is the main reason it is being bought by both retail and traditional investors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted November 16 Report Share Posted November 16 (edited) So, with centrally controlled currency you can have change - for example we had decimalisation in 1971 and then we dodged the Euro bullet when the Mark, Peseta, Lira, Drachma etc were all abandoned. Bitcoin cannot be varied or changed to suit a changing world. Now then, think of the Enigma machines in WW2 such incredibly advanced cryptography - the computer Turing built filled a ball room. Turing’s computer’s modern equivalent is about half a second of processing power on an average iPhone. When you think of AI and the potential to coordinate processing power - well it strikes me the question is when, not if the cryptography supporting Bitcoin gets cracked. In the meantime people speculate on Bitcoin the same way previous generations did on tulips and NFT’s. Edited November 16 by Mungler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted November 16 Author Report Share Posted November 16 (edited) I am happy to continue speculating along with others, yes, bitcoin has some attributes of smaller bubble within each cycle, however, it has been 14 years now since its inception, and it's adoption growth curve has exceeded every asset ever created. It's percentage returns from 2001 =2021 have been approx 20 million percent and that has grown again since. The earliest adopters who take the greatest risk, reap the largest reward, that is the same for all emerging assets, back in late 90s and the early 2000s remember apple stock crashing over 50% in a single day which then took nearly to early 2008 to regain that 50% plus loss 8 years to recover . Lots of .com stocks had volitility anything form 10-50% drawdowns so crypto is not the only asset. What has happened with btc like other assets is that the more it matures, the less daily, to weekly, to monthly volatily it has exihibited. I do agree to an extent that within each four year cycle the price gets to a peak and drops back with greater much greater volatility than more traditional assets. The draw downs have shown to be less and less each consectutive 4 year cycle. If it does appear to be a bubble, it is so far 14 years long and a lot has happened in the world in that time. The reality is that holding cash in any significant amount gets inflated away. Bitcoin is seen by many as a hedge against inflation and that is where it's term 'digital gold' has come from. It is the first ever currency to seperate money from from state, why do you think the fedral securities in America along with the IMF gave up trying to control bitcoin after 7 long years. They gave up because they realised it is outside of direct control so they turned their attention to altcoins in which are entities in some smaller or greater form, ie, they are created by someone or an organisation so they could be targeted to a certain extent through legislation. Try to legislate creating bitcoin, it cannot be done, effectively you would have to turn off the global internet to stop it. Everyone who interacts with the Bitcoin blockchain is insentivised to make it work. The sheer energy required to gain control of the hashing rate is almost impossible for any single person or organisation to conjour. Try to legislate against creating bitcoin worldwide, it cannot be done, effectively you would have to turn off the global internet to stop it, as there are approx 50,000 BTC nodes held on home and company computers spread across the world. A single node contains the complete bitcoin blockchain transaction history since inception and every node speaks to each other. Each node then agrees on consensus that nothing has been changed since the previous transaction and that all the nodes agree (reach consensus) that the transaction is safe and valid, and if not. it is rejected. No one single bitcoin fake bitcoin has ever been added to the blockchain, no one single bitcoin has ever been stolen from the blockchain. Everyone who interacts with the Bitcoin blockchain is insentivised to make it work. The growth adoption curve rate of cryptocurrency is now surpassing that of the internet and mobile phones, approx half a billion people in the world own some form of cyptocurrency and that is predicted to increase in orders of magnitude by 2030 as we move towards digitilisation of real world assets (RWA'S), this includes nft technology in some forms. There is tons going on with crypto in the background from a technology stance and it is only now that tradfi is starting to move capital into the technology coins as that is were they see the ultimate value. The fuel to run the internet of economy so to speak. So far Bitcoin has solved a lot for fragile economies in some parts of the world, people use it on a daily basis as means to exchange for goods and services. Try sending money back home via financail rails like paypal or western union if you have no access to a bank account, you are geo-targeted and charged crazy fees or blocked. I can say that in it's infancy and mid term growth it had high transaction fees, however, now scaling solutions have decreased the transaction fees greatly though more is to be done. Bitcoin is seen by many retail holders and increasingly traditional finance in some certain aspects to be superior to gold, it is finite, thus giving scarcity, it is decentralised, no one person or market force or organisation directly controls it, it is portable, try carrying a block of gold through and airport. It's access key can be stored in your head or on a scrap of paper and you can access it from any computer in the world. It cannot be copied or fangled with such as the recent increase in fake gold bars that are being injected into some unregulated gold markets. I can send bitcoin to anyone in the world in under a few minutes at a minute cost, I do not need anyones permission to transact, when it is in their wallet, they can use it for goods and services. For example, a wallet last year on chain sent 13 billion dollars worth of bitcoin to another wallet for a transaction cost of about $1.70, I think the cost to send that amount in fees via traditional fiat was calculated at around 20 million dollars and would have taken longer. It is immutable, so the consensus of the ledger is public and all transactions are there for all the public to see. If it appears to be a long bubble, Bitcoin has proven over the 14 year period to be resilient to economic shocks, both geopolitcally, war and resource failures globally. It continues to rebound back greater each and each cycle. I am happy to be proven wrong, but I think it not going away any time soon. The link below is interesting as it gives the bitcoin holdings by companies, countries etc. Some goverments have been using sovereign capital to buy bitcoin since 2019 as they see it as a way to remove themselves from the finacial trappings of the IMF and inflation, the likes of Bhutan and el salvador have improved fiscally from this. The IMF are shatting themselves, they came out last month asking for a special meeting with el salvador quoting, "that buying bitcoin with sovereign money is a direct threat to the dollar". The first registered traditional finance bitcoin etf's launched just over 6 months ago and since then over a 100 billion dollars in bitcoin has been bought via the etfs and it took just 6 months for it to reach a 100 billion. It took golds etfs 3 years to reach that level in the USA and btc is now a third of the of the entire USA gold etf market. In the last 6 months there are increasing net outflows from gold etfs into btc etfs in the US and the bullish case is that in the next few months, btc with overtake the gold etf market in the US. (take a look at the link below) The interesting thing is the greater proportion of btc is held by long term single retail people holders (you and me), the first sovereign bitcoin bond has yesterday just been filed for in a state in America as a addition to holding traditional goverment bonds. I note also the first pension fund in the world who is based in the UK has just allocated 3% of its 50 million under assets into bitcoin last week. Mastercard annouced last week that btc will be available to spend via there new btc credit card globally in the next two years, Visa are not far behind them and Visa have been using etherium for the last two years in part for banking settlements. Also last week they launched VTAP based on the etherium blockchain whis b2b (bank to bank) to enable tokenisation of assets onto the blockchain Ultimately no single company or bank wanted to be the first to put btc on their balance sheet, publicly anyway, now that has shifted and it would appear that increasingly some don't want to be last. As of last week Btc with a 1.738 trillion dollar market cap is the eighth largest global asset edging past silver at 1.170 trillion. Gold being number 1, nvidia, apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, saudi Aramco then Bitcoin. https://treasuries.bitbo.io/ Even buying a fraction of a bitcoin could be life changing in many years to come, maybe, maybe not. For all of the above, not financial advice of course. Just my two pence worth. Edited November 16 by 7daysinaweek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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