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At the Races - any tips?


markm
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Saw this on another forum FWIW:

 

Well two winners (plus inglis Drever) and two seconds so could have been better - or worse!! Masterminded - well i said he was like Moscow Flyer - maybe better after today!!

 

Only nine races tomorrow, piece of cake! laugh.gif

 

Actually I think tomorrow produces the very best opportunities of the week, and keep the very best Bet to the last race of the lot........... Read on.............. good.gif

 

So it is the most awaited contest in racing for many years. KAUTO STAR V DENMAN for the Gold Cup. The Champion against his stablemate who won the Hennessey in such devastating fashion.

 

It has been raining since lunchtime at Prestbury Park, and the formbook suggests that favours Denman. However he is taking on a Gold Cup and King George winner, while he carried topweight in a Handicap. Some difference. Our Vic's win franks the King George form and I side with the Champion. However the ground is a real worry, and I would not be backing either of them at prospective odds.

 

As a result I will be having a small each way on KNOWHERE (25/1ew); stays every yard (unlike a few here) relishes the mud and has a fine course record. Has come up a few lengths short against these horses on several occasions and may do so again, but with his conditions tomorrow and a recent win over Our Vic, second to Kauto at Kempton, derfinitely worth a 'play'.

 

Two outstanding bets elsewhere, but going through the races in order, mudlark GASPARA (7/1ew) is of interest in the opener for the on-fire Pipe team.

 

In the Ballymore properties Ruby Walsh deserts the talented BreedsBreeze, best of the home challenge, to ride unexposed Irish raider FIVEFORTHREE (7/1ew) and I think the hint is worth taking.

 

A glance at the County Hurdle might cause punters to baulk, but my second biggest bet of the week is here!! COUNTY ZEN (9/1ew) ran the race of her life to be third in the Totesport Gold Trophy (after two wins in lesser company). For a novice to produce a performance like that was astounding (second placed Punjabi in that race ran third in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday!). A repetition could turn this hot handicap into a procession.

 

All the formlines point to FRANCHOEK (7/4) in the Triumph Hurdle, and while i won't be opposing this potential superstar, but won't be investing heavily either.

 

The Novice Hurdle is wide open and I take a chance with ONE GULP (50/1ew) who followed up two minor successes with a decent third to Battle Cry (ran really well today) last time.

 

TWENTY DEGREES (12/1) has a really good amateur on top in the Foxhunters, and MY PETRA (9/2) can take the grand Annual for a stable with a fine record in the race.

 

But keeping the finest for last.............. good.gif

 

WINGMAN (10/1NAP ew Meeting's Best Bet) is the one. A good run from Breedsbreeze or County Zen earlier will strengthen the case. Loves this ground and the Totesport win was a magnificent performance. One of only two last time out winners despite the huge field (the other, Wanago, is the danger I respect most) and clearly still progressive, the more rain the better for the Nap.

 

Have another great day and savour the Gold Cup.

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I did £25 reverse forecast (£50 bet) on Denman and Kauto Star and appear to have won something.

 

The odds were so short on both, I don't think it's a huge amount.

 

Kicking myself I didn't have a stab at a Tricast when the one and two spots were about as guaranteed as you can ever get in racing terms.

 

Just checked, 63.25 net profit (with stake back) - paying for the weekends shooting!

Edited by Mungler
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