JohnfromUK
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Posts posted by JohnfromUK
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18 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:
And now can either of you explain the massive number of deaths in Italy and the USA?
I can only say that I have read that Italy has a high population of the elderly. It tends to have quite high 'normal flu' losses as well.
The USA - I have no idea, but if I was to guess it would be that the virus is much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases suggests. The US also has a lot of 'unhealthy' people (overweight, diabetic, blood pressure etc.) and sometimes these conditions are not treated (especially in the less well off as there is not a true equivalent of our NHS and private care and medication is VERY expensive)
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11 minutes ago, AVB said:
However he couldn’t explain how many of the 20,000 would have died anyway I.e they died with Coronavirus rather than of it.
And that is very valid - we are told that many of those who have succumbed were elderly and/or had underlying health conditions - but of course no one can say with certainty whether without Covid they would have lasted weeks, months, years, decades even.
Similarly - we hear that some relatively young 'fit and well' have died - but we don't actually know if they had 'as yet unidentified' issues which even they were unaware of - I don't believe they are doing post mortems on victims (but might be wrong on that).
There also seems to be a huge difference in severity from one person to another. One 'theory' I read was that those exposed to a very light dose of the virus (maybe by passing contact) may get off with a mild case because their immune systems get a head start as the virus multiplies ........ whereas those who get a much greater dose (maybe several exposures, or prolonged exposure with someone shedding the virus) may get their immune system 'overwhelmed' before it can get to work fully - and so have a severe case - but it is just a theory.
There is also a big difference between different peoples immune systems - we will all have come across those who get a bad dose of every cold doing the rounds - and others who are very seldom much affected more than a runny nose.
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15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:
Its funny, and certainly not a personal dig at you, but many at first doubted the sincerity of the Chinese casualty rate, many still do...
I may well fall into that category ........ but I do think they have dramatically reduced it from whatever it was.
15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:What is a big casualty count ?
Really - it is what the public perceive a big casualty count - and to an extent it will be measured against other countries (mainly our European neighbours). If we are a lot worse in the final count - that will be politically hard to 'brush over' - however - if we are towards the lower end of our comparable countries - then you can bet the politicians will be basking in any glory they can find. If you require a figure, my personal feeling is that getting above say 30,000 (UK) is concerning because it is exceeding the average annual flu toll (roughly 10 to 15 thousand annually) by a sizeable margin and exceeding the recent 'worst year' flu toll (2014/5 was estimated at 28,000).
15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:A vaccine is a preventative measure, for a horse that has already left the stable, and is 6 months away, at least.
I meant the vaccine being so important for future years in context of your mention of repeating every year. Flu repeats every year, but a combination of natural immunity and vaccine means that (most years) it isn't a high profile matter.
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1 hour ago, Rewulf said:
The fact that most of the civilised world did the same wont be a good enough excuse.
It isn't only that.
I think that "most of the civilised world did the same" - and clear evidence that 'lockdown' worked in a number of places (notably Wuhan/China) and I suspect that in the final analysis it will be found that 'lockdown' reduced cases (with a lag of 1-2 weeks to take effect) everywhere it was effective.
In addition, with most of the civilised world doing the same - economic damage was inevitable whatever we did. A big casualty count also does immense political damage.
My guess is that in the final analysis - the UK will have been found to have broadly done the 'right thing', but started a little late (as did most others).
6 minutes ago, Rewulf said:If its HALF as bad as made out to be , every country in the world is going to have to locked down EVERY year.
That is where a vaccine is so important .......
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Just when I though he couldn't stoop any lower https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159311/Jeremy-Corbyn-claims-coronavirus-crisis-proved-hard-Left-views-absolutely-right.html
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49 minutes ago, Lloyd90 said:
... couldn’t he for once just show some class and accept the kind words.
It isn't in his makeup. His support (from his Momentum and hard left support base) isn't based on 'kind words' behaviour. It is about tapping into and encouraging envy, jealousy, and a 'them and us' feeling, supporting the 'anti establishment' rabble - even if they consist of terrorists and murderers. That is what his whole politics and background consists of. He has never done a proper job, but has been a paid 'agitator' either in the Union movement or politics all his life - much of it spent agitating against his own party's leadership.
Oddly - much of what he wished for (renationalisation of the railways, massive reductions is air traffic, huge loses to those with savings, people becoming dependent on state handouts) have come to pass - though not in any way by his hand. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-boris-johnson-pmqs-coronavirus-a9424786.html
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8 hours ago, moondoggy said:
Well I will NEVER buy another Sony tv. I will always look for another option on other electronic equipment before considering Sony. I know from the Sony Community Forum that there are many other people that now feel the same way.
Same. I have years ago had fantastic products from Sony. I still have some after many years. The recent products have been poor - for example my 3 year old TV cannot play BBC iPlayer (catchup) due to insufficient memory - and has a dire user interface. (Fortunately I can do a workaround using the Samsung DVD). They seemed to quite lose the plot.
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Corbyn is a 'socialist'. You would expect negativity; it is at the heart of how left wing politicians seek to implement socialism.
- Hold back the 'active and able' to prevent them getting ahead
- Take from those who 'have' to reduce them to 'haven't'
- Discourage the instinct to excel or prosper individually
- Control and micromanage to ensure 'equality and fairness'
- Ensure the 'state' holds control over the voters through state dependency
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10 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:
Home delivery appears to be booked up for approximately a month so can you wait?
I believe the problem with home delivery (apart from the long delay or possible inability to get a slot at all at present) is that you place your order, but don't know how many items will not be delivered due to 'no stock'. I heard of someone locally where less than half of the items ordered arrived. That caused a problem.
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7 minutes ago, lancer425 said:
Now in your opinions is it better to go in to shop at 24 hour stores and early morning 1 2 3 4am etc or does it make no difference. is it rammed anyway.
We don't have any 24 hours near - but I went to our local (Morrisons) on Tuesday. It opened 07:00 - 08:00 for NHS staff etc, then at 08:00 to the public. I was there soon after 08:00. No rush, queue etc. Most things in stock (that I looked for anyway) except not much fresh meat, plenty sausages and bacon, and limited choice of breads and baked things. Fruit and Veg was pretty much complete, plenty cheeses, cold meats, some tinned goods (didn't look what as I didn't want any, but Heinz beans were there). Dairy OK for milk and butter, but limited choice of bottle sizes. Eggs in stock (they are hard to get in places I hear). Frozen seemed to have most things, but limited choice of 'brands'.
My understanding from local Facebook pages is that the stock is also generally good in Aldi and Tesco. I believe all are limiting you on quantity, but not sure as I only wanted one of each of most things.
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I have an older version of one of these http://www.lawnmowersshop.co.uk/hayter-power-trim-push-strimmer.htm
Good for rough grass, weeds etc. Not up to brambles, seedlings, woody stuff.
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25 minutes ago, eddoakley said:
Unless there is more to it than we are told.
It's seems that it's a variation on the flu. A bit more severe. The problem seems to me to be the lack of vaccination for the masses not the actual symptoms.
There are many reports coming through of people who have recovered, surely for the vast majority that would be the case?
Edd
The majority will recover - but a lot (estimates seem to be between 50,000 and 250,000) won't. And if the spread is fast - there will be nothing like enough beds, doctors, ventilators and other medical wizardry to allow everyone who does get it badly to be treated. Some will miss out - and probably die as a consequence.
IF the spread is slowed - there is a much better chance that the beds, doctors, ventilators and other medical wizardry won't all be needed at once - and so more urgent cases will get the use of it - and more will survive.
Those who get seriously ill will be dominated by those with 'underlying conditions', the over 60s, and the overweight. However - a significant number of 'healthy' young and middle aged will get it seriously and need treatment in hospital.
Yes - it is like the flu ......... but we have good antibodies to combat 'flu. We don't for this - and so EVERYONE has a greater risk.
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6 minutes ago, lancer425 said:
I think overall The government have done a good job, its the public that is letting the public down not the government.
This /\ - many times over;
I despair when I read in a local paper https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/gloucester-car-boot-sale-busiest-3973493
that a car boot sale had it's busiest weekend ever. So much for the public doing as they are told. The London tube was apparently 'packed' today - despite people being warned to not use it except when unavoidable.
Johnson has followed the official scientists advice - and I know there are other scientists saying everything from a 'full lockdown' to 'just let it happen and build immunity'. But he has stuck with the two main scientific advisers and (certainly as far as we can tell) followed their advice.
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3 hours ago, Gameking said:
We all know that the Badger is the main cause for the crash in Hedgehog numbers (except Brian May and Chris Wakman)
I am very 'pro' hedgehog - even if they do raid nests for eggs, you don't see many about nowadays.
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It is the sort of behaviour I would associate with this type of 'fanatic'. Society would be better without these people. I'm not saying any more because I will probably end up getting the thread locked!
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50 minutes ago, mick miller said:
I forgot to factor in how thick and selfish most of the British are these days.
I read on my local facebook pages yesterday some people 'crowing' about how the local townspeople were enjoying being able to walk round the town browsing the shops, socialising, meeting friends etc ..... and how everyone wasn't letting the situation 'get them down' despite the fact they couldn't go for a drink or a coffee. Others - were responding to all of this in some horror - especially about the local kids having gathered in groups and managed to pull up some trees in a park area and start a fire which caused the fire brigade to be called out.
It is a shame the virus can't be selective and take out certain elements in society!
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3 minutes ago, enfieldspares said:
I can't decide.
As I recall, she gave another name for the driver - who said (and I think it was proved) he wasn't even in the UK at the time. But there were a whole stack of things that just didn't add up in her story.
I suspect her 'problem' was that once she had started down the path of false statements ......... she didn't have the courage to give up and admit she must have been mistaken and it was her. Instead she continued to just dig a deeper hole to fall into.
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This was posted by someone locally who does serious posts on these matters and as far as I know is 'genuinely' knowledgeable:
Some people have asked me why its safer outdoors than indoors. Here goes, forgive me if it gets a bit technical.
Back in the bad old days of the Cold War, a certain Government establishment on Salisbury Plain were experimenting with Germ Warfare. They did a lot of things which would have horrified us had we known at the time, most of which involved releasing supposedly harmless bacteria into the air, from aircraft and ships.
They were attempting to evaluate how many live bacteria survived to testing points all over the country.
The surprising answer was that none survived at all. Repeated experiments gave the same results. The conclusion they came to back in the 1960s was that something existed in open air that killed bacteria and viruses. They called it The Open Air Factor. Since those days, we now know that OAF is not a single substance, but a powerful chemical process which starts off with atmospheric ozone reacting with the aromatics given off by plants, and to a certain extent manmade sources. For those interested, natural sources of these chemicals (Terpenes) release 10 to the power of 19 tonnes into the atmosphere every year. That's a billion trillion tonnes. The reaction with atmospheric ozone has about 40 stages, culminating with production of a tiny molecule called an hydroxyl radical. (OH*) This radical is nature's atmospheric detergent, and although it is an incredibly powerful oxidiser, without it life on earth would not exist in its present form.
So how does this kill viruses? Simply all of those 40 reactions in the Open Air Factor condense on all airborne particles from soot down to single molecules, including any bacteria and viruses, and the OH radicals produced attack the viral capsules and cell walls and kill the little ****.
There are about a billion OH radicals per cc of open air, and it only takes a few to destroy pathogenic (illness causing) micro organisms. Not all microorganisms are killed by OH. Like us humans, many bacteria fungi and viruses develop in open air and have structures that resist OH. However Covid-19 and similar disease causing microorganisms are developed inside our cells and therefore have no resistance to OH radicals.The bad news is that the conditions required to create the Open Air Factor and OH radicals do not exist for more than 3 or 4 seconds indoors, even near an open window. So the virus can survive on the tiny droplets of mucus ejected when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
So in short you are safer outdoors than in! -
4 minutes ago, Scully said:
Telling customers there is no fuel shortage
I should have thought with most people 'grounded', and working from home - fuel usage would be a fraction of usual. I know my usual (very low being maybe 50 - 100 miles a week average) weekly mileage has been cut to roughly one supermarket run (say 10 miles total) every week to 10 days, so I will be using about 1/4 gallon a week. I will use nearly that in petrol for the mower the way it is growing!
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30 minutes ago, vmaxphil said:
ao has had a run on freezers
I also heard that - and if you look on line almost nothing is in stock at Curry's. On the other side, I spoke to a friend on the phone earlier today who is older, doesn't drive etc. to make sure he was OK. He had walked to his local Aldi yesterday (Friday) , and he said there was 'adequate' stock of most things and they were limiting to no more than 4(? - I think he said 4) of any individual item. He got everything he needed OK and said it wasn't any busier than usual.
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Just now, Mice! said:
You would think the police had better things to do but I'm sure I got done by a speed van on the way home today, country is falling apart but still time for speeding fines, doing 60 odd on a 60 dual carriageway 🤬
100% agree. Police spending time on people 'just' over is one of my 'pet hates', but in our area (I'm pretty sure) it's done by 'non police personnel' - and I'm not quite sure what that means other than they work for the Police. but are not Police - so cannot be used as Policemen (or women).
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12 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:
if only we get the mortality rate down to the figures Germany
I think it is difficult to compare because each country has different criteria for testing (probably driven by the availability of test kits and the 'lab and back office' staff to process them).
It is generally reported that we are only testing a minority of 'suspects' and particularly those who are more seriously affected.
IF you were able to test everyone with symptoms (and also every time they showed symptoms if it is negative the first time) - then I think our infection rate would be much higher than showing now ...... and our mortality rate much lower (as a proportion of positive tests).
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4 minutes ago, old man said:
Expanding the thread, personally not sure that visiting the shops in the "golden oldies" hour a good idea, a condensing of the most vulnerable and at risk all in one place at once?
That can work both ways I think;
The "most vulnerable and at risk" are probably those most likely to be diligent about their 'self isolation' and general care - and also probably less likely to have the illness without symptoms.
The 'high risk' (from whom to catch the virus) ones (in my humble view) are the utter idiots who are still apparently crowding the bars and clubs of London etc. Should drench the crowd of them in disinfectant as they leave!
The story locally was that Aldi offered a special early time - but it was busier then and very crowded with long queues. I don't think Morrisons do one.
Coronavirus (Covid-19) Is this it?
in Off Topic
Posted
I think you are about right!
I believe that the make up of the 'flu jab is chosen by the WHO on (3 or sometimes 4) variants of 'flu seen in approx February preceding the northern hemisphere cold season is used to make September's UK 'jab'. I think it is usually a combination of the most common variant and any variants seen that are viewed as particularly dangerous. Australia and NZ tend to get what was going on in the 'far east' in their previous cold season - and can be 6 months or so ahead of us. The official explanation for the NHS jab is here;
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/how-flu-vaccine-works/