First Lybia, now maybe Syria, where next?

[Vipa]

Saudi has declared that it is investing in building nuclear power stations as its projected energy requirements by 2030 would mean it would have to use all it's oil internally leaving none for export.

 

Despite the current high prices Saudi oil production has fallen by 800,000bb/d to 8.5 mbb/d. They insist that the market is over supplied and that no further increases in supply are necessary.

 

I suspect they are unable to pump it out any faster than they already are and that their fields have already peaked. They are staring at the down slope with alarm.

 

Of course if world production has peaked then we are about to slide down our own steep down slope in to the agrarian Olduvai future. Duncan's well argued theory puts us with the same access to energy in 2030 as we had in 1920.

 

We'll know soon.

 

 

That's the first time I've seen 'Olduvai theory'

 

Thanks for that MNT... Initial reading looks interesting, if a little scary... will enjoy having a delve into that one!

[Vipa]

 

Lack of oil wont be a problem in 100 years time Theres still much much more to be discovered and as extraction technologies advance the oil which is dificult or uneconomic to extract currently, will also become available....Oil wont seriously deplete the Global population it will undoubtedly be a lack of foodstuffs nothing more.

 

A large number of industry experts would whole heartedly disagree with you there Mike...

 

I agree that it isn't fuel that will be the undoing of the current global population but what most people don't realise is that the pesticides, fertilisers and yes, fuel for the agricultural machinery, that are together responsible for the explosive growth in the population are all derived from oil..

 

With the help of oil and the advancement of medical science (oh, most pharmaceuticals are dependant on oil for production too!) the global population has grown from just under 1bn 200 years ago, to the 6bn we have now. As oil becomes more scarce and unaffordable (remember, no one is saying the taps will be turned off tomorrow,) so will the pesticides, fertilisers, drugs, fuel for machinery become unafordable for the masses... there will most likely be wars not just for oil itself but for resources too... A population isn't going to sit back as resources dwindle, looking over the fence at those who have more and just shrug their shoulders and accept their fate.... they WILL fight for it, be it water, fertile land, yes oil too....

 

The world has become far too complacent... I think we are in for a very nasty shock!

[highseas]

i do fear that when **** hits the fan and it will at some stage the world we know as 3rd world countries will be leading the way and liveing unchanged as they have not much need for oil the tribes of africa and other places like that will know what to eat we in the west dont have a scooby doo, ray mears is the only man who can help us, he is..... mad max! or mad mears what ever suits lol

[kdubya]

The crux of the Problem is not Oil or indeed lack of it. Its a complete lack of restraint in the reproduction cycle of the Human species globally.

Man is an animal just like every other animal on the planet..OK so we are elegedly more intelligent and civilised but judged by what ? We are measuring our intelligence and evolutionary status on Human terms.

Animals control their population to suit the available food source and vice versa and nothing else.

The simple fact is we are s*****g ourselves into oblivion because the Planet, cannot support the levels of Population which are burgeoning out of all control.

Lack of oil wont be a problem in 100 years time Theres still much much more to be discovered and as extraction technologies advance the oil which is dificult or uneconomic to extract currently, will also become available....Oil wont seriously deplete the Global population it will undoubtedly be a lack of foodstuffs nothing more.

Incidently my father in law is a former Industrial Chemist who worked in Oil Exploration for 38 years..he tells me the production of Oil feilds in America peaked in the late 70,s and have been in decline ever since, hence the need for America to import at the levels they do. Even then 30 % of the worlds population consume nearly 60% of the World oil.

War, Famine, and desease have always controlled mans population pre industrial revolution, which in the scheme of things is relatively recent...We must find a way not of discovering more oil but of utilising more natural power sources and also naturally reducing the Global population.

 

Oil production peaked in the usa in the 70s you make it seem like news, its what hubbard and others ( including the end of suburbia I mentioned earlier) based their scenarios on, as for the populous being linked more to food than oil, its the other way around oil has allowed the growth of the population, and lack of oil will ultimately lead to a reduction in that population, I dont know if I will be around to see the day we enter into geoglobal conflict, but as sure as the day turns to night my kids or grandkids will, Im sad to say

 

Anyway here is clip from end of suburbia, its doomsday stuff admittedly but it rings to many alarm bells for me.

 

KW

 

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/preview3.htm

Edited April 26, 2011 by kdubya

[Dr_Scholl]

Saudi has declared that it is investing in building nuclear power stations as its projected energy requirements by 2030 would mean it would have to use all it's oil internally leaving none for export.

 

Despite the current high prices Saudi oil production has fallen by 800,000bb/d to 8.5 mbb/d. They insist that the market is over supplied and that no further increases in supply are necessary.

 

I suspect they are unable to pump it out any faster than they already are and that their fields have already peaked. They are staring at the down slope with alarm.

 

Of course if world production has peaked then we are about to slide down our own steep down slope in to the agrarian Olduvai future. Duncan's well argued theory puts us with the same access to energy in 2030 as we had in 1920.

 

We'll know soon.

 

Saudi Arabia's oil production isn't falling, they cut it. They bumped up production to make up for the shortfall when Libya went offline in February, but cut it back again because nobody was buying. Why you ask? Because the extra oil the Saudi's put on the market was sour crude, not the light sweet crude we lost from Libya. Sour crude is more difficult to refine, and there are less refineries that can handle it.

 

There is no shortage of oil right now. During the last run up in prices in 2008, OPEC had only 1.2 MBD of spare capacity. Today they have around 4-4.5 MBD, mostly in Saudi Arabia. Fear's driving this, not supply and demand.

[AVB]

It doesn't matter what the cost is in either dollars, stirling or lives... without oil there is absolutely no western civilisation... it literally ceases to exist... We are completely dependent on oil let alone addicted to it, to us and our way of lives it is not a luxury, it is a necesity, it has no substitute and there is nothing in the forseeable future that could replace it (for more than a fraction of a percent of the population)

 

Take a step back and do some quick research into what is produced from oil.. most people are blinkered and think of their car but transport is only the tip of the iceberg.

 

Stability in the middle east, where most of the planet's remaining reserves are, is paramount to our survival. If the west loses control of the arab states or at least fails to maintain the relative stability we have today, there is a strong posibility we could see an end to our society and way of life during our lifetimes! I am not scaremongering, this is fact, fact that 99% of the population have their heads buried in the sand to, not just here but in other western countries. The fastest collapse will be in the US because of the suburbs... their country is built on the premise that you will always have a car to get from home to... wherever... most european countries were designed prior to the invention of the automobile and so are designed more around horse and cart scale. They will still suffer the same collapse but perhaps not quite so accutely!

 

I agree that that is where the biggest reserves of conventional crude oil are. However what about Tar Sands? This could be the future if they ever develop and easier way of extracting and refining. Canada and Venezuela each have oil sand reserves approximately equal to the world's total reserves of conventional crude oil. I don't know about Venezuela which is run by a bit of a nutter but Canada is a friendly place. Let's keep on the right side of them.

[Vipa]

I agree that that is where the biggest reserves of conventional crude oil are. However what about Tar Sands? This could be the future if they ever develop and easier way of extracting and refining. Canada and Venezuela each have oil sand reserves approximately equal to the world's total reserves of conventional crude oil. I don't know about Venezuela which is run by a bit of a nutter but Canada is a friendly place. Let's keep on the right side of them.

 

The technology to extract oil and process it from tar sands is too far away to be able to replace the worlds supply currently coming from sweet crude. The other issue is energy cost... Extraction of oil from tar sands requires huge amounts of energy meaning the cost of the stuff would be prohibitive before you start.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Vipa

[Vipa]

Saudi Arabia's oil production isn't falling, they cut it. They bumped up production to make up for the shortfall when Libya went offline in February, but cut it back again because nobody was buying. Why you ask? Because the extra oil the Saudi's put on the market was sour crude, not the light sweet crude we lost from Libya. Sour crude is more difficult to refine, and there are less refineries that can handle it.

 

There is no shortage of oil right now. During the last run up in prices in 2008, OPEC had only 1.2 MBD of spare capacity. Today they have around 4-4.5 MBD, mostly in Saudi Arabia. Fear's driving this, not supply and demand.

 

OPEC have very valid reasons to keep the world thinking the supply of oil is endless.... most of those reasons begin with a dollar sign... The last thing they want are alternatives, without oil they have nothing but sand!

 

For many years now the OPEC nations have been revising their reserve estimates and by some miracle, they never seem to go down!!

 

Wouldn't you believe it.... Pete's Pockets are real, and are right in the middle of the Gulf of Arabia Perhaps the centre of the earth isn't a ball of molten iron after all... it must be oil!

 

Wake up and smell the coffee people... When oil industry geologists and senior management start (en mass) telling you there is an iminent, VERY serious problem about to smack us in the face, you still prefer to believe the spin doctors and those who stand to gain the most financially by keeping the illusion going as long as possible!

Edited April 27, 2011 by Vipa

[MaybeNextTime]

The crux of the Problem is not Oil or indeed lack of it. Its a complete lack of restraint in the reproduction cycle of the Human species globally.

Man is an animal just like every other animal on the planet..OK so we are elegedly more intelligent and civilised but judged by what ? We are measuring our intelligence and evolutionary status on Human terms.

Animals control their population to suit the available food source and vice versa and nothing else. The simple fact is we are s*****g ourselves into oblivion because the Planet, cannot support the levels of Population which are burgeoning out of all control.

 

No, all life breeds to the maximal capacity of the available resources. Left unchecked everything goes through, expansion, over-shoot and the then die-off.

There is nothing divinely balanced about this, it's all about other life being subject to limited resources.

Our problem is that for about 200 years we have been relying on ever increasing amounts of energy to stretch our resources. Does that mean there are too many people or not enough resources? Doesn't much matter as the over-shoot and die off is unavoidable.

 

 

Lack of oil wont be a problem in 100 years time Theres still much much more to be discovered and as extraction technologies advance the oil which is dificult or uneconomic to extract currently, will also become available....Oil wont seriously deplete the Global population it will undoubtedly be a lack of foodstuffs nothing more.

 

Where? :look: The finest oil field geologists in the world have been looking and they can't find it. Even the IEA completely disagrees with you.

World oil consumption is around 60 million barrels a day. Compare that to the largest oil field in the US, Prudhoe Bay which contained 25 billion barrels when new. Sounds a lot? Works out to be 14 months worth of global supply.

It has about 2 billion barrels left in it and peaked in 1989 with 2 million barrels a day. It currently dribbles a few 100,000 bb/d.

 

Peak oil isn't about total recoverable reserves but about the rate at which they can be extracted. Think about a fuel pump from a Honda C90 that can't feed the carb thirst on a V8. That is the PO problem.

 

Incidently my father in law is a former Industrial Chemist who worked in Oil Exploration for 38 years..he tells me the production of Oil feilds in America peaked in the late 70,s and have been in decline ever since, hence the need for America to import at the levels they do. Even then 30 % of the worlds population consume nearly 60% of the World oil.

War, Famine, and desease have always controlled mans population pre industrial revolution, which in the scheme of things is relatively recent...We must find a way not of discovering more oil but of utilising more natural power sources and also naturally reducing the Global population.

 

I'd love to believe that such power sources existed but they don't. :yp:

Even coal, that black staple of our own industrial revolution is now down to 1 billion tons in the ground in the UK. I believe Wales is now empty. World reserves are pretty good however I'm not sure how much good that does us. Maybe we'll see steam power make a come back on our way down the slope?

[Fisherman Mike]

Grow more rape, means much more pigeon, means more shooting for us, pigeons to eat, rape seed oil to cook them in, empty the pan into the oil burner, **** the Arabs, who needs them. ? Simples

[MaybeNextTime]

Saudi Arabia's oil production isn't falling, they cut it. They bumped up production to make up for the shortfall when Libya went offline in February, but cut it back again because nobody was buying. Why you ask? Because the extra oil the Saudi's put on the market was sour crude, not the light sweet crude we lost from Libya. Sour crude is more difficult to refine, and there are less refineries that can handle it.

 

There is no shortage of oil right now. During the last run up in prices in 2008, OPEC had only 1.2 MBD of spare capacity. Today they have around 4-4.5 MBD, mostly in Saudi Arabia. Fear's driving this, not supply and demand.

 

Yep. Something to do with the falling refining capacity. Apparently there's no money to be made in refining oil in Saudi Arabia either these days.

 

The current price is a blip on the start of the slope. The pumps aren't about to run dry this afternoon.

 

Makes you wonder though if there is all this spare oil they why are the refineries paying near record top dollar for it and where is