Why is the death rate still so high?

[AVB]

1 hour ago, GingerCat said:

My understanding of it, and I may be wrong, is that if you die within 28 days of being diagnosed with covid its a covid related death. 

Regardless of the reason you actually died. So the figures are a bit skewed. 

Three ways of counting deaths 

1) 28 days of a positive test = Covid death. This is the number reported daiiy 

2) Covid mentioned on the death certificate. This is reported by the ONS I think monthly. This number is higher than 1. 

3) Excess deaths above the 5 year norm. Reported again monthly by the ONS. This number is higher than 2 as it includes all deaths that may have been caused by lockdown but not directly covid related - delayed treatment for example.  

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, 2 die in family of 11  from meeting up at Christmas in Wolverhampton , ??????? 

[Mungler]

More stats announced today - the figures are all dropping off a cliff and that is because the over 80s have all been vaccinated and as we know this virus effects the 80’s by the largest of large margins.

[Jim Neal]

14 hours ago, Mungler said:

More stats announced today - the figures are all dropping off a cliff and that is because the over 80s have all been vaccinated and as we know this virus effects the 80’s by the largest of large margins.

Or maybe it's because we're getting nearer to herd immunity?  It's been stated that approximately two thirds of the population need to have been exposed to a virus for herd immunity to establish.  We really will never know the answer to that.  It could be 4 million-odd, could be 40 million.  Last year, Neil Ferguson's "best guess" was (I can't remember the exact wording) if there are 2,000 known cases there could be up to 100,000 unknown cases!

Maybe all the oldies who were teetering on the brink have gone already, so the virus is having a tougher time bumping off its victims now?!

[Mungler]

8 hours ago, Jim Neal said:

Or maybe it's because we're getting nearer to herd immunity?  It's been stated that approximately two thirds of the population need to have been exposed to a virus for herd immunity to establish.  We really will never know the answer to that.  It could be 4 million-odd, could be 40 million.  Last year, Neil Ferguson's "best guess" was (I can't remember the exact wording) if there are 2,000 known cases there could be up to 100,000 unknown cases!

Maybe all the oldies who were teetering on the brink have gone already, so the virus is having a tougher time bumping off its victims now?!

I’d agree with all of that.

I still think there’s a lot to be said for the dry tinder theory ie the virus goes round and it grabs hold of all the people who should have gone last winter but didn’t (because it was mild) and who weren’t going to make the end of the following year anyway. Let’s see if we have a below average annual death rate for next year (which we will).

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Edited March 3, 2021 by Mungler

[Jim Neal]

14 hours ago, Mungler said:

Let’s see if we have a below average annual death rate for next year (which we will).

It'll be interesting to see, when the time comes.  However, one thing could play into the doomsayers' hands on that front - the knock-on and/or lag effect of the lack of treatment for cancer, cardiac & other seriously ill patients during the last year.  The demise of these patients may well prop up the death toll over the coming 12-24 months so the lockdown enthusiasts can say "I told you so" 🤷‍♂️