My prediction

[unapalomablanca]

Well, i think that we are going to see some big political action in the next few weeks. Last week we had ukip doing well, we then got nigel lawson coming out with his declaration of a no vote in a referendum. then lord lamont (norman, remember him) and today the first cabinet member gove, saying if there was a vote today he would vote no. I see momentum going against the tory leader. I've got a feeling there could be a leadership challenge with a new pro referendum candidate emerging as the new leader,a possible split in the coalition, this would allow some sort of deal with ukip. I could be well wide of the mark, but it seems to me that times are changing, europe itself is tired of the EU, certainly the euro, so i think we could see a new prime minister and a referendum this year or early next. It seems to add up to me. p.s Des lynam has also said he voted ukip!!!

 

una.

Edited May 12, 2013 by unapalomablanca

[Boromir]

I laugh at some of the lefties comments on leaving the EU. They think that once we leave the EU all trade with them will cease. All I say is the EU needs us more than we need the EU.

 

And David Cameron is weak I hope he does go and the Cons go on to form some sort of coalition with UKIP.

Edited May 12, 2013 by Boromir

[unapalomablanca]

I laugh at some of the lefties comments on leaving the EU. They think that once we leave the EU all trade with them will cease. All I say is the EU needs us more than we need the EU.

 

And David Cameron is weak I hope he does go and the Cons go on to form some sort of coalition with UKIP.

i think the writings on the wall, we have always traded with europe, we always will, if i want a german car are they going to refuse me? If they want 10,000 bottles of pure single malt, is scotland gonna refuse to sell?

[TIGHTCHOKE]

I'll watch and wait.

 

It will be interesting to see how accurate your prediction is Una!

[unapalomablanca]

I'll watch and wait.

 

It will be interesting to see how accurate your prediction is Una!

could be egg all over my face

[bruno22rf]

Ultimately this is all that Farage wanted-the referendum that,as a democracy,we are all entitled to.I have voted UKIP from the start-its amazing to witness the change in political pace now that the 3 main parties have had a warning shot fired across their bows.

Edited May 12, 2013 by bruno22rf

[figgy]

Ultimately this is all that Farage wanted-the referendum that,as a democracy,we are all entitled to.I have voted UKIP from the start-its amazing to witness the change in political pace now that the 3 main parties have had a warning shot fired across thier bows.

I hope a few more shots blow them all out of the water.

 

Referendum is long overdue.

 

Figgy

[bruno22rf]

Here here,Figgy,.....times,they are a changing.

[Livefast123]

Sod the warning shots, place the next volley straight into the political hearts of the LibLabCons!

[Gimlet]

I hate to say it but don't count your chikens. There is a long way to go yet. Tories on both sides of the referendum debate are talking in terms of renegotiations built on air. There is no mention of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Britain as a signatory to that treaty has legally accepted the condition that the terms of EU membership cannot be renegotiated without invoking Article 50 and giving formal notice to leave. There is no way on Earth the EU will negotiate unless either Mr Cameron formally announces his intention to take Britain out of the EU and proceeds to do precisely that or at least dissolves Parliament and fights a general election on that basis, which he will never and can never do since he has publiclly declared his intention to campaign for an "in" vote; or unless he calls an straight, unconditional in-out referendum now and in the event of a "out" result enshrines that result in statute before resigning as Conservative leader and Prime Minister, again precipitating a general election, and leaving the task of completing the withdrawal to his successor. Only then can renegotiations begin.

I cannot see either of these things happening while night follows day. But even if they did, Article 50 is a typical piece of EU legislative sleight of hand which allows the institution to spin out renegotiations in perpetuity, throwing out a bone here and a scrap there and inviting referendum after referendum until the "correct" result is obtained.

Article 50 is deliberate entrapment. There is only one way to leave the EU: hold a completely uncondition referendum, win it, and walk. No renegotiation. Only UKIP appears to accept this reality, or at least to campaign honestly on the terms of it (I suspect Cameron knows it also but is exploiting it to keep us in). Eventually Labour and L/Ds will catch up in their scrabble for office and join Cameron in his pledge to hold a rigged referendum.

A dissolution of the Conservative party with true Conservatives joining UKIP and rebuilding the party and the rump joining the L/Ds or retiring to make celebrity appearances on Newsnight is likely, referendum or no, but that will take ten years to do and another ten to shake off the ideological mud that will stick from the process. By then the EU is likely to have imploded naturally under the weight of its own contradictions. The tragedy is that should a British leader be elected with the guts to set the example of leading Britain in a civilised exit of the EU and thereby bringing about its orderly dismantling, much misery could be avoided across the continent. But the Westminster elite hasn't got a leader with the balls and the electorate, I suspect, hasn't got the balls to elect the only leader who has.

Keep up the fight, but don't expect fast results.

[kev56]

I hope a few more shots blow them all out of the water.

 

Referendum is long overdue.

 

Figgy

+1

[Psyxologos]

All I say is the EU needs us more than we need the EU.

I bet you also believe that Britain is an empire...

[Gimlet]

I bet you also believe that Britain is an empire...

 

That is a stupid comment. Leave yah-boo jeering in the schoolyard where it belongs.

Britain is the second largest contributor to EU central funding after Germany, and we buy more from the EU than we sell to it.

Angela Merkel is desperate to keep Britain in as a free market capitalist ally in a sclerotic socialist EU core. Her motivation and primary loyalties in keeping Britain in the EU are determindly domestic, but expect the argument for doing so to be framed fallaciously in exaggerated concern for Britain's chances of survival outside. Expect dark predictions and veiled threats. Expert blandishments, blackmail, coercion and bribery to keep Cameron and Britain enmeshed. Those four words are important. They are the principle methods by which the EU does business.

[unapalomablanca]

hammond has now echoed gove, apparently 7 other cabinet members are wanting out of the eu. Its like when thatcher was ousted but in reverse, she went as she was anti eu,