So where is the remain campaign now?

[Rewulf]

 

 

The Chinese Premiers comments about local trade wars was interesting - if they start shorting their holdings in US debt for the £ that change the ball game completely. If Soros is so sure about Trump failing then he must recognise that their money will go somewhere....

 

 

 

Soros has got to say Trump is going to fail,he invested so much money and effort into Hillarys campaign,he can hardly say any different.

Nobody likes to admit they are wrong,but in the case of Trump and Brexit,its not so much who got it wrong ,but who got found out to be telling outright lies.

It seems to be a case of damage limitation,rather than to just be quiet and let things take there course.

[Lord v]

 

 

Business' now know what will happen

 

Do they? All they know is that Theresa will definitely drag us out of the single market and there may be some sort of trade deal, or there may not.

 

Unless there is a good deal, then the UK will trade under WTO rather than have a bad deal. WTO tariffs are not the greatest, but they are known and therefore there is surety.

 

The definition of "good deal" will now be set by reference to the WTO outcome. Therefore anything even a penny better than the WTO outcome will be sold to us as a "good deal", which is utterly nuts given then benefits we have at the moment. What is actually a bad deal will be sold to us as a good deal and there are some who will lap it up and thump chests. Here are some numbers that have been crunched on the WTO outcome: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-cost-uk-leaving-eu-without-trade-deal-exports-negotiations-david-davis-a7325326.html

 

Any instability in the dollar, which given Trumps erratic temperament is almost guaranteed, increases the attraction in the £, which although currently low, is stable and now even more so with some uncertainty removed.

 

Relying on an unstable character to boost our currency can hardly be seen as sound economics policy...

 

 

 

 

The numbers in the independent article are interesting but they very clearly don't tell the full story. Apart from car manufacturing the other industries that will be hardest hit, are, with the best will in the world, very minor parts of our economy. Car manufactures can and will pressure their respective governments to ensure that there current investment is not wasted. TM et al have been very clear that if we end up on WTO rules tax incentives will be offered to keep them here. Being a tax haven is perhaps not ideologically the greatest place to be, and can cause a bubble (Ireland anyone?) but it certainly works short term over a decade or so. Will France, Germany etc really want to lose 10 years or more of taxes from the likes of Nissan and Peugeot and Audi? I think probably not.... This assumes they actually pay of course.. but that is probably a separate issue

 

Japan is mentioned as being concerned in that article only because they keep the yen artificially low to ensure their manufacturers don't **** off else where. With a depressed £, tax incentives and good links with US and EU markets some of those companies may become interested in the UK. Especially as they are and will be facing increasing competition from China, both in manufacturing terms and the little wobble china had recently. Instability in the dollar also makes it harder for the yen to be kept lower.

 

Its not relying on it to form policy, but to ignore him and his impact on world markets would be stupid.

[UKPoacher]

Soros doesn't need to see the EU as a perfect body to explain how Brexit can damage Britain.

 

The link to a conspiracy website appears to be uncorroborated nonsense so we can just park that.

 

He may not be a perfect individual, but he has a nasty habit of getting things right.

 

Try this link if you think it is uncorroborated. In the man's own words.......

[UKPoacher]

It would appear that Soros has had second thoughts about the EU:

 

 

He told Bloomberg: “I basically summed up my views very concisely, but I did overstate slightly the danger facing the Europe Union – namely that it is facing disintegration.

“That was a slight exaggeration because neither Putin nor China want Europe to disintegrate.

"Each have their own reasons – China needs Europe as a market, Putin needs Europe to provide the capacity to produce something because the Putin regime is only capable of exploiting natural resources.

“Therefore, Europe is not going to disintegrate, but coming under the dominance of Putin’s Russia would be a destruction of all the values that Europe stands for.”

 

Clear as mud then