So where is the remain campaign now?

[Lord v]

More bending of statistics.........you claim "young people (under 30) overwhelmingly voted to remain".....do you not mean that of the small number of young people, for example "some 70% in those under 24" who actually bothered to vote in the referendum voted remain?

Well obviously. Your rephrase doesn't damage the point or the outcome of the referendum which is not in question.

 

Heres a rephrase:

 

12guage82 claims to have voted (at least partially) based on what was best for young people. My question is how is that reconciled with the information available that suggests that younger people were more biased toward remain?

 

Happier now?

Edited January 19, 2017 by Lord v

[panoma1]

Well obviously. Your rephrase doesn't damage the point or the outcome of the referendum which is not in question.

 

Heres a rephrase:

 

12guage82 claims to have voted (at least partially) based on what was best for young people. My question is how is that reconciled with the information available that suggests that younger people were more biased toward remain?

 

Happier now?

You miss out the word you chose to use "overwhelmingly"..........young people didn't overwhelmingly vote to remain! The total percentage that chose to vote and from these, a lesser percentage of those that chose to disclose (claim) the way they voted.......are different!

[Lord v]

You miss out the word you chose to use "overwhelmingly"..........young people didn't overwhelmingly vote to remain! The total percentage that chose to vote and from these, a lesser percentage of those that chose to disclose (claim) the way they voted.......are different!

You're trying to pick an argument here where literally none exists.

 

I omitted it to be slightly clearer in the question I wished to ask.

[12gauge82]

How do you reconcile that with the fact that young people (under 30) overwhelmingly voted to remain? (some 70% in those under 24)

The vast majority of young don't have a clue about politics and many voted the way the main stream media and Cameron and pals wanted them to, you know the same people who predicted instant doom and ww3 if we voted leave, luckily alot of the older voters had more sense and saw through the lies (and yes before you say it, there were lies and truth bending on both sides but the remain side took the biscuit) and voted leave.

[achosenman]

The vast majority of young don't have a clue about politics and many voted the way the main stream media and Cameron and pals wanted them to, you know the same people who predicted instant doom and ww3 if we voted leave, luckily alot of the older voters had more sense and saw through the lies (and yes before you say it, there were lies and truth bending on both sides but the remain side took the biscuit) and voted leave.

 

Agreed, not to mention non have any life experience. The only opinions they have are shaped by the left wing education system.

 

I seem to remember an old adage...you vote for the left in your idealistic youth, but switch to the right when life's lessons have been learned.

[Lord v]

The vast majority of young don't have a clue about politics and many voted the way the main stream media and Cameron and pals wanted them to, you know the same people who predicted instant doom and ww3 if we voted leave, luckily alot of the older voters had more sense and saw through the lies (and yes before you say it, there were lies and truth bending on both sides but the remain side took the biscuit) and voted leave.

 

I would tend to agree - definitely about both sides lying and truth bending! I would hesitate to say that most under 30's have no clue though.

 

As its bound to come up - I did vote remain, but it was a close run thing and certainly not for any particular ideological reason. I in fact agree with many of the principals of the leave campaign across a broad range of issues including immigration control and general self determination. In general I think globalisation is a 'good thing' but at this stage the EU is no longer working for the UK on that level and we could be better served by sorting our selves out. The only reason my vote went remain was because there was the lack of any coherent plan from the leave side about how exactly they wanted to position themselves with regards single market, Subsidies for farming etc; there was definite lack of clarity on how things would happen that just made me a little nervous. To me you don't do something like this without a very detailed plan.

 

I am intrigued about how this will play out. Personally I would have preferred if we stayed in the single market, but being out of it opens up a lot of opportunity. Ultimately, we are a rich nation and although small we do pay top dollar for the worlds products, no business will want to see our market disappear. TM's speech in Davos today will certainly be interesting.

Edited January 19, 2017 by Lord v

[achosenman]

 

The only reason my vote went remain was because there was the lack of any coherent plan from the leave side about how exactly they wanted to position themselves with regards single market, Subsidies for farming etc; there was definite lack of clarity on how things would happen that just made me a little nervous. To me you don't do something like this without a very detailed plan.

 

I'm confused, it was a referendum, not an election. The Brexit campaigners were never going to form a government. Party lines were irrelevant for the referendum.

[Lord v]

I'm confused, it was a referendum, not an election. The Brexit campaigners were never going to form a government. Party lines were irrelevant for the referendum.

Not suggesting they should?

 

But a plan, even a vague one at the time, would have been nice. There were no contingencies, no 'we would do x if the EU did y', just a 'lets leave, trust us it will be fine'. And you know what they say about politicians and promises! For me, that wasn't enough.

Edited January 19, 2017 by Lord v

[achosenman]

Again you seem to be confusing the referendum with an election. David Cammeron (a remain campaigner) promised to trigger A50 the next working day. He was PM and in government. He had the power. Any policy decision, is obviously down the sitting government of the day, regardless of political persuasion. It was, and is for them to answer your questions, not Nigel Farage or any other campaigner.

[Lord v]

Not really no.

 

I wasn't asking for exact policy (although that would have been nice, if impossible) or particularly unified approach amongst the campaign - just something more than 'it will be fine - we will have all this extra cash' which was essentially the level of detail out of the leave campaign. More debate on the single market and other facets of the EU beast within the leave campaign would have been nice rather than a simplistic leave vs remain.

 

It didn't come across like any member of the leave campaign had actually thought beyond the referendum. Hell, there was lack of detail on the process of triggering A50 and the negotiations that would/could take place inside and outside the 2 years. Cornwall was a case in point - voted by majority to leave, next morning asking for assurances that they will get the same level of funding as they currently get from the EU. Surely the time to think about that is before you vote - not after? Rather symptomatic of the whole thing.

 

That's pretty much my last word on the subject. I voted how I voted, for my own reasons, as did the rest of the country. If you believe those reasons make me an imbecile I'm not sure I really care.

[achosenman]

I most certainly don't believe you're an imbecile. I just think you, like everyone else who wanted those types of answers, was always going to be disappointed.

 

The whole campaign from both sides, (but vastly more from the remain side IMO) was nothing but lies, scaremongering and underhand. (IE the leaflet)

 

The one thing that has changed forever, is that the electorate will no longer swallow spin by those in Westminster, the news outlets or the "right on" leftist PC brigade.

 

Perhaps we as a society can get back to some meaningful dialog.

[Lord v]

 

Perhaps we as a society can get back to some meaningful dialog.

Now that I can get board with.

 

Not sure TM played Davos as well as she did with her speech yesterday.

[12gauge82]

Not really no.

 

I wasn't asking for exact policy (although that would have been nice, if impossible) or particularly unified approach amongst the campaign - just something more than 'it will be fine - we will have all this extra cash' which was essentially the level of detail out of the leave campaign. More debate on the single market and other facets of the EU beast within the leave campaign would have been nice rather than a simplistic leave vs remain.

 

It didn't come across like any member of the leave campaign had actually thought beyond the referendum. Hell, there was lack of detail on the process of triggering A50 and the negotiations that would/could take place inside and outside the 2 years. Cornwall was a case in point - voted by majority to leave, next morning asking for assurances that they will get the same level of funding as they currently get from the EU. Surely the time to think about that is before you vote - not after? Rather symptomatic of the whole thing.

 

That's pretty much my last word on the subject. I voted how I voted, for my own reasons, as did the rest of the country. If you believe those reasons make me an imbecile I'm not sure I really care.

I completely agree with the fact there was no real indication for what would happen if we left but this goes acknowledge to my point about the games played by the remain side, they never intended to give a fair vote and fully expected to bully us into remaining, Cameron should have given a fair and balanced outline of what would happen if we remained or if we left, he didn't, he tried every dirty trick in the book and then left it for others to sort out because he was to arrogant to belive the vote would go any other way and hadn't set a plan for any other sinario. I really wish farage had been in power as I think he would have instantly put a decent plan in place and trade deals ready to go, I still truly belive we'll be in a enter position in a few years, I've also no doubt there will be bumps along the way.

[UKPoacher]

Now that I can get board with.

 

Not sure TM played Davos as well as she did with her speech yesterday.

 

She is hardly likely to get a good response telling corporate fat cats that they have to change. It would be like Ken Dodd preaching abstinence during the second house, Friday evening at Glasgow Empire.

 

Getting back to Theresa May's Brexit speech; She really has been very brave to declare the 'Red Lines' and threaten to walk away from any deal that did not meet with them. There is no going back from that and Brussels knows it. They are frightened that other countries will follow the UK out of the door if the deal is seen as being anything except worse that now. But by the same token they are also aware that not doing a deal quickly will unsettle all those workers and businessmen who rely on UK trade. It is all well and good telling Theresa May that they won't discuss trade deals until after March 2019, but VAG, BMW and Mercedes would not know whether to tool up for new RHD car models or not and that isn't going to happen. They need to know five or six years in advance where their markets are. Spanish and Brittany fishermen aren't going to wait and see whether they will be able to continue fishing British waters and if so at what cost. It certainly will have put plenty of pressure on the EU to get their finger out and sort it.

 

Junkers to be medically retired next month I reckon.

[Lord v]

Negotiations will be very different in a few months. Even if the political incumbents in France and Germany are still around after their respective elections I have a feeling they will lose a lot of ground. TM pushed immigration front and centre for them again. If they are too punitive they risk losing home support that want to put in similar controls. If they lose then we are likely to negotiating with a more favourable governments.

 

And that's before business get involved. They still want to sell to us, we still want to buy. They won't want to make that more difficult.

 

Edit:

 

The whole spain/Gibraltar issue could be interesting. They have been known to play silly ******* with the border before. I wonder if they will be (dumb enough) to try that again. Though I imagine if France and Germany ask Spain to play nicely they probably will or the EU will fracture further.

Edited January 19, 2017 by Lord v

[UKPoacher]

The Spectator's take on Theresa May's speech; http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/theresa-may-has-taken-control-this-is-a-brexit-plan-the-eu-cant-stop/

Edited January 20, 2017 by UKPoacher

[Rewulf]

Negotiations will be very different in a few months. Even if the political incumbents in France and Germany are still around after their respective elections I have a feeling they will lose a lot of ground. TM pushed immigration front and centre for them again. If they are too punitive they risk losing home support that want to put in similar controls. If they lose then we are likely to negotiating with a more favourable governments.

 

And that's before business get involved. They still want to sell to us, we still want to buy. They won't want to make that more difficult.

 

Edit:

 

The whole spain/Gibraltar issue could be interesting. They have been known to play silly ******* with the border before. I wonder if they will be (dumb enough) to try that again. Though I imagine if France and Germany ask Spain to play nicely they probably will or the EU will fracture further.

 

When it comes to trade agreements ,the writings on the wall for the EU and European governments.

Any upset or unfavourable tariffs ,will be met with likewise from us,any uncertainty over markets costs the big companies money,they wont like that at all.

 

But when it comes to immigration,the EU has drawn its own red line,and sealed its fate.

If they had been more flexible to allowing borders to be controlled by sovereign countries,rather than steadfastly pushing open border policy,we would not be where we are today,the Remainers would have won and we would not be having this discussion.

Spain /Gib ,the Spanish posture,as they do,they will not risk upsetting the apple cart,their economy is far too fragile.

They sell us huge amounts of produce,and would be seriously hurt without the billions we spend in tourism.

The EU is finished, and the UK will be the catalyst that brings it to its end,because it simply doesnt work.

[Rewulf]

The Spectator's take on Theresa May's speech; http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/theresa-may-has-taken-control-this-is-a-brexit-plan-the-eu-cant-stop/

 

Good balanced article.

[guest1957]

George Soros's take on things: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/george-soros-donald-trump-fail-theresa-may-brexit-last-three-days-davos-billionaire-investor-a7536586.html%3Famp?client=safari

 

The bit to think long and hard about:

 

"At the moment the people of the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to a decline in living standards. This is going to take some time but when it does happen they'll realise they are earning less than before because wages won't rise as fast as the cost of living."

Edited January 20, 2017 by guest1957

[12gauge82]

The Spectator's take on Theresa May's speech; http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/theresa-may-has-taken-control-this-is-a-brexit-plan-the-eu-cant-stop/

Excellent article which sets out very clearly the reasons the EU can't push us about, anyone who wants to remain for fear of the EU punishing us should read it.

[UKPoacher]

George Soros's take on things: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/george-soros-donald-trump-fail-theresa-may-brexit-last-three-days-davos-billionaire-investor-a7536586.html%3Famp?client=safari

 

The bit to think long and hard about:

 

"At the moment the people of the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to a decline in living standards. This is going to take some time but when it does happen they'll realise they are earning less than before because wages won't rise as fast as the cost of living."

 

What they left out of the article is that Soros believes that the EU is disintegrating, the trading block has become dysfunctional and is governed by archaic laws that have no place today.

 

He is also wrong about the Tories having a 'very small majority'. Look at the breakdown of Parliamentary seats and it may seem so. But given that if Labour, Lib-Dems and the SNP are largely ineffectual and would lose seats if an election was called, it isn't a true picture.

 

And as for Soros: http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/proof-george-soros-nazi-past-finally-comes-light-discovery-forgotten-interview/

 

 

"The EU, Soros added, is disintegrating following last year’s Brexit vote and Italian referendum -- a course that must be reversed. The trading bloc has become dysfunctional because it is governed by laws that are “not appropriate to the current circumstances” and not easily changed, he said."

 

"The EU, Soros added, is disintegrating following last year’s Brexit vote and Italian referendum -- a course that must be reversed. The trading bloc has become dysfunctional because it is governed by laws that are “not appropriate to the current circumstances” and not easily changed, he said."

[Vince Green]

http://humanevents.com/2011/04/02/top-10-reasons-george-soros-is-dangerous/

 

George Soros is not the best person to be quoting. Trump thinks Brexit is a good thing but I wouldn't quote him either.

 

 

 

 

George Soros's take on things: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/george-soros-donald-trump-fail-theresa-may-brexit-last-three-days-davos-billionaire-investor-a7536586.html%3Famp?client=safari

 

The bit to think long and hard about:

 

"At the moment the people of the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to a decline in living standards. This is going to take some time but when it does happen they'll realise they are earning less than before because wages won't rise as fast as the cost of living."

Edited January 20, 2017 by Vince Green

[guest1957]

 

 

What they left out of the article is that Soros believes that the EU is disintegrating, the trading block has become dysfunctional and is governed by archaic laws that have no place today.

 

He is also wrong about the Tories having a 'very small majority'. Look at the breakdown of Parliamentary seats and it may seem so. But given that if Labour, Lib-Dems and the SNP are largely ineffectual and would lose seats if an election was called, it isn't a true picture.

 

And as for Soros: http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/proof-george-soros-nazi-past-finally-comes-light-discovery-forgotten-interview/

 

"The EU, Soros added, is disintegrating following last years Brexit vote and Italian referendum -- a course that must be reversed. The trading bloc has become dysfunctional because it is governed by laws that are not appropriate to the current circumstances and not easily changed, he said."

"The EU, Soros added, is disintegrating following last years Brexit vote and Italian referendum -- a course that must be reversed. The trading bloc has become dysfunctional because it is governed by laws that are not appropriate to the current circumstances and not easily changed, he said."

Soros doesn't need to see the EU as a perfect body to explain how Brexit can damage Britain.

 

The link to a conspiracy website appears to be uncorroborated nonsense so we can just park that.

http://humanevents.com/2011/04/02/top-10-reasons-george-soros-is-dangerous/

 

George Soros is not the best person to be quoting

 

 

 

 

He may not be a perfect individual, but he has a nasty habit of getting things right.

[Lord v]

George Soros's take on things: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/george-soros-donald-trump-fail-theresa-may-brexit-last-three-days-davos-billionaire-investor-a7536586.html%3Famp?client=safari

 

The bit to think long and hard about:

 

"At the moment the people of the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to a decline in living standards. This is going to take some time but when it does happen they'll realise they are earning less than before because wages won't rise as fast as the cost of living."

 

That assumes that the currency depreciates to the point that the inflation rise is untenable. While some depreciation is inevitable the absolute standout of TM's speech was the ability to deliver some assurances over the deals process. Business' now know what will happen (assuming UK government sticks to it). Unless there is a good deal, then the UK will trade under WTO rather than have a bad deal. WTO tariffs are not the greatest, but they are known and therefore there is surety. Pretty much why the £ has stayed static since the speech. It is also now in business' interest to ensure the deal works for them...

 

Any instability in the dollar, which given Trumps erratic temperament is almost guaranteed, increases the attraction in the £, which although currently low, is stable and now even more so with some uncertainty removed.

 

The Chinese Premiers comments about local trade wars was interesting - if they start shorting their holdings in US debt for the £ that change the ball game completely. If Soros is so sure about Trump failing then he must recognise that their money will go somewhere....

 

I think there is a lot of posturing (on all sides tbf) but ultimately everyone wants to sell us stuff and we want to buy.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Lord v

[guest1957]

 

Business' now know what will happen

 

Do they? All they know is that Theresa will definitely drag us out of the single market and there may be some sort of trade deal, or there may not.

 

Unless there is a good deal, then the UK will trade under WTO rather than have a bad deal. WTO tariffs are not the greatest, but they are known and therefore there is surety.

 

The definition of "good deal" will now be set by reference to the WTO outcome. Therefore anything even a penny better than the WTO outcome will be sold to us as a "good deal", which is utterly nuts given then benefits we have at the moment. What is actually a bad deal will be sold to us as a good deal and there are some who will lap it up and thump chests. Here are some numbers that have been crunched on the WTO outcome: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-cost-uk-leaving-eu-without-trade-deal-exports-negotiations-david-davis-a7325326.html

 

Any instability in the dollar, which given Trumps erratic temperament is almost guaranteed, increases the attraction in the £, which although currently low, is stable and now even more so with some uncertainty removed.

 

Relying on an unstable character to boost our currency can hardly be seen as sound economics policy...