Is the Brexit referendum too early?

[wymberley]

Cynicism is not to blame. They have freely admitted that some new legislation is on hold because it's unhelpful to the remain vote.

 

Atb

Somewhat mild though. When a politician is forced into making a free admission every effort will be made to ensure the potential appears minor in nature. "Unhelpful" to we plebs translates to distinctly downright disastrous and better describes the level I was meaning.

[achosenman]

No argument from me on that assessment.

 

Atb

[rodp]

This country bumpkin is finding it all too much to grasp. From experience gained in Europe in the early 70s, which way to vote in 75 was quite easy to decide and as I've not seen any evidence since that that decision was incorrect, will be casting a similar vote in a couple of weeks. What I would like to know is what, if any, - and my innate cynicism suggests there will be some - future proposed 'legislation' has been put on hold until after the 23rd on the grounds that prior announcement could well have affected the 'in' result.

You can bet they'll cripple us if we stay in. We, the working class, will suffer while call me Dace and his croneys sit way above it all. We'll be absolutely swamped with immigrants that will sink the nhs, schools, housing etc, but of course if you have access to all this in the private sector then it doesn't affect you.

[ShootingEgg]

We have to build a new house every 6/7 minutes to cope with the amount of migrants coming in. And we are 3 1/2 times more croweded than france.. We are losing our green spaces and thats just the tip if all this..

[ShootingEgg]

This is worth a watch... Chap who predicted the 08 crash and his views on the EU

 

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/06/06/watch-the-investor-who-predicted-the-recession-warns-the-eu-is-about-to-implode/

[Fuji Shooter]

France and Italy to go bust, no **** Sherlock surprised they have made it this far.

[scotslad]

If they're is stuff in pipeline getting held back till after 23rd or europe decides to teach us a lesson or things do get steadily worse...

 

Is there anything to stop another referendum being called? Or is it a once in lifetime thing (like the scottish one )

[Verystormy]

I started the process of what to vote for pretty much sat on the fence and decided to start researching. Since then i am now a very firm Leave voter and i will explain why.

 

First, let me give a bit of background. I am a geoscientist who has spent most of my career working all over the world - i have lived and worked in 13 countries and am a dual national. My wife is a tri national and was neither born in the UK or is from a white family. Previous to this career, i trained as a lawyer and before that i was in the military.

 

The big issue comes down to migration and the uncontrolled nature of it and its economic effect.

 

Migration can and is a major plus economically and every developed country in the world relies on it, to the extent some would be in serious trouble without it. However, it doesnt rely on uncontrolled migration - countries instead relies on controlled migration.

 

At the moment, the UK has uncontroled migration in and no means of stopping or reducing it.

 

There is a massive problem with this and it comes down to tax. We are often told that the vast majority of migrants work. There is a lot of truth in that (though there are issues still with none working migrants, but that is another issue), but it is not that fact they work and earn, but how much they work and earn.

 

In the UK, if you earn less than about £35k a year, and that is the most conservative figure, with others putting it around £40k, then you are a net drain on the economy. The reason being that the amount of tax you pay, is unlikely to cover the services you require from the government.

 

Now, it is clear that the vast majority of migrants earn less than this, in fact during my research it found that the majority earn less than £27k a year with a very large amount earning minimum wage.

 

So, lets look at an example. A family of two adults and two kids move from the EU to the UK and start work. One earning the upper end of this - say £27k, the other part time on minimum wage. As a family, they will pay about £4k a year tax. However, £4k a year is what it costs to educate 1 child. So, the UK has to in effect finance the education of the other child. But of course, they do not just benefit from education. On top, we have to finance their NHS access, there access to benefits, their access to protection via our armed forces and the million other things that our taxes have to go towards funding.

 

So, the actual cost of remaining in the EU is a LOT more than £350 million a week.

 

On the flip side of the coin is how the UK will be out of the EU.

 

Much is said about trade agreements with the EU. This is a bit of a red herring.

 

First, it assumes we need a trade agreement in order to trade. Nothing could be further than the truth. While the EU may be the biggest export destination as a block from the UK, the biggest individual trade country with the UK is the USA. Yet, the UK doesn't have a trade agreement with the USA and nor does the EU. Yet, in the last 30 years, or trade with the USA has increased, while our trade with the EU has fallen sharply year on year since joining.

 

Then, there is the issue of even if trade agreements are a good thing. Nobody seems to be asking that very much, but in reality there often not. For an example, look at the one between Mexico and the USA which has caused decimation across the USA car sector. Or, look at what we may get from TTIP.

 

However, I do think there will be an agreement and a very fast one as it is in nobodies interest for trade to be damaged - particularly the EU. At present you only have one major economy in the EU doing well. Germany. However, its economy is now showing signs of serious stuttering. At the heart of the Germany economy is manufacturing, particularly car manufacturing. The biggest customer of German made cars is the UK. On the flip side, the biggest export from the UK to the EU is nuclear engineering, which for a range of reasons such as security, engineering availability and others, there is only one real country that can supply - the UK.

[wymberley]

I started the process of what to vote for pretty much sat on the fence and decided to start researching. Since then i am now a very firm Leave voter and i will explain why.

 

First, let me give a bit of background. I am a geoscientist who has spent most of my career working all over the world - i have lived and worked in 13 countries and am a dual national. My wife is a tri national and was neither born in the UK or is from a white family. Previous to this career, i trained as a lawyer and before that i was in the military.

 

The big issue comes down to migration and the uncontrolled nature of it and its economic effect.

 

Migration can and is a major plus economically and every developed country in the world relies on it, to the extent some would be in serious trouble without it. However, it doesnt rely on uncontrolled migration - countries instead relies on controlled migration.

 

At the moment, the UK has uncontroled migration in and no means of stopping or reducing it.

 

There is a massive problem with this and it comes down to tax. We are often told that the vast majority of migrants work. There is a lot of truth in that (though there are issues still with none working migrants, but that is another issue), but it is not that fact they work and earn, but how much they work and earn.

 

In the UK, if you earn less than about £35k a year, and that is the most conservative figure, with others putting it around £40k, then you are a net drain on the economy. The reason being that the amount of tax you pay, is unlikely to cover the services you require from the government.

 

Now, it is clear that the vast majority of migrants earn less than this, in fact during my research it found that the majority earn less than £27k a year with a very large amount earning minimum wage.

 

So, lets look at an example. A family of two adults and two kids move from the EU to the UK and start work. One earning the upper end of this - say £27k, the other part time on minimum wage. As a family, they will pay about £4k a year tax. However, £4k a year is what it costs to educate 1 child. So, the UK has to in effect finance the education of the other child. But of course, they do not just benefit from education. On top, we have to finance their NHS access, there access to benefits, their access to protection via our armed forces and the million other things that our taxes have to go towards funding.

 

So, the actual cost of remaining in the EU is a LOT more than £350 million a week.

 

On the flip side of the coin is how the UK will be out of the EU.

 

Much is said about trade agreements with the EU. This is a bit of a red herring.

 

First, it assumes we need a trade agreement in order to trade. Nothing could be further than the truth. While the EU may be the biggest export destination as a block from the UK, the biggest individual trade country with the UK is the USA. Yet, the UK doesn't have a trade agreement with the USA and nor does the EU. Yet, in the last 30 years, or trade with the USA has increased, while our trade with the EU has fallen sharply year on year since joining.

 

Then, there is the issue of even if trade agreements are a good thing. Nobody seems to be asking that very much, but in reality there often not. For an example, look at the one between Mexico and the USA which has caused decimation across the USA car sector. Or, look at what we may get from TTIP.

 

However, I do think there will be an agreement and a very fast one as it is in nobodies interest for trade to be damaged - particularly the EU. At present you only have one major economy in the EU doing well. Germany. However, its economy is now showing signs of serious stuttering. At the heart of the Germany economy is manufacturing, particularly car manufacturing. The biggest customer of German made cars is the UK. On the flip side, the biggest export from the UK to the EU is nuclear engineering, which for a range of reasons such as security, engineering availability and others, there is only one real country that can supply - the UK.

You could be quite unpopular with certain people. Me? I quite like you.

 

Well posted.

[Fuji Shooter]

On the news today Hitachi Rail President spouting job losses and halt in further investment if we exit. Really, can't we just buy someone else's trains if he wants to take his bat and ball home.

[Verystormy]

On the news today Hitachi Rail President spouting job losses and halt in further investment if we exit. Really, can't we just buy someone else's trains if he wants to take his bat and ball home.

 

It was announced yesterday. Now, I could be a old cynic who has spent far too many hours dealing with people like politicians (When I have ran projects, I have often had dealings with ministers from a range of countries), but I smell a rat here. A Cameron rat. You see, business don't just spit their dummy out and say we aren't going to take your billions of pounds for new trains because you wont play in the same club. No, they come out and say things like this when a politician gives them a little squeeze to get them to say what the politician wants - a bit like Nissan during the Euro debate when it said it would pull out of the UK if we didn't join. Something I know for a fact that their were given a "squeeze" from within the EU