victorismyhero Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 con 316lab 239lib dem 10snp 58ukip 2others 25remember this is only an exit poll ........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbiep Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm waiting to see if my prediction (which I've been saying for a couple of years) comes true : conservative overall majority. Looks close ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLuke Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Interesting and quite surprising in many ways. A conservative lib dem coalition would give the magic 326 once more But alas - is only an exit poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poontang Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 con 316lab 239 lib dem 10 snp 58 ukip 2 others 25 remember this is only an exit poll ........ Exit polls are always very dodgy. However, IF that poll proves to be anywhere near correct I would say UKIP have caused far more damage to Labour than to the Tories. I hope so 'cos I ******* hate socialists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 It will be surprising if it is right, but adds an extra twist. Confidence and supply deal with DUP if those numbers stack up. At least we will get an EU referendum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdubya Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Exit polls are always very dodgy. However, IF that poll proves to be anywhere near correct I would say UKIP have caused far more damage to Labour than to the Tories. I hope so 'cos I ******* hate socialists. What was the shout here? a vote for UKIP is a vote for labour, and it looks like Clegg is a goner,will they join up with the cons again? as it might just see them off the map altogether next time, will be interested to see the UKIP vote % as the path looks to be straight and true. KW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 The number i had seen from polling was that UKIP was a 3:1 ratio of conservative:labour swing voters. I genuinely hope that UKIP do have a good % as it will lend lots of weight for a change from first past the post. Remember Labour are getting humped in Scotland which skews things heavily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdubya Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 The number i had seen from polling was that UKIP was a 3:1 ratio of conservative:labour swing voters. I genuinely hope that UKIP do have a good % as it will lend lots of weight for a change from first past the post. Remember Labour are getting humped in Scotland which skews things heavily. how are the cons doing up there? KW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Exit polls are always very dodgy. However, IF that poll proves to be anywhere near correct I would say UKIP have caused far more damage to Labour than to the Tories. I hope so 'cos I ******* hate socialists. I think you're right - from a straw poll in our offices the old school white working class traditional labour voter have gone over to ukip. UKIP won't feature but if they're sucking labour votes than game on. As for the SNP - I've had enough of them and the Jocks - I'll never go there again and I'll never buy another Scottish product - they can just **** right off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) As expected, there was an outside ambition of 2 seats, 1 would have been good. Very likely zero, but probably around 12%-14% vote share. All but 1 Scottish seat would be SNP if exit poll is correct. No idea if the 1 is Alastair Carmichael (LD) in Orkney or one of the Labour seats Mungler, disappointing comments, you're normally much more balanced :( Scotland is weird just now and not long term representative Edited May 7, 2015 by grrclark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdubya Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 As for the SNP - I've had enough of them and the Jocks - I'll never go there again and I'll never buy another Scottish product - they can just **** right off. not even a fried mars bar? KW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 not even a fried mars bar? KW I've never been tempted with the Scottish 'cuisine'. If only we had the jock referendum a couple of weeks later when the oil price tanked and sharply reminded the rest of jockland that they are 100% propped up by England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drut Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 "As for the SNP - I've had enough of them and the Jocks - I'll never go there again and I'll never buy another Scottish product - they can just **** right off" + 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I've never been tempted with the Scottish 'cuisine'. If only we had the jock referendum a couple of weeks later when the oil price tanked and sharply reminded the rest of jockland that they are 100% propped up by England. Now you're just being silly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Now you're just being silly If the whole of Scotland has gone SNP then it's not political is national - them and us. A sick hangover of the referendum and those wounds are still wide open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) Remember it is still first past the post. The minority nationalist vote is pegging for one party, the majority unionist vote is split between 3 or more. There is also huge activity in the NAT minority, they will have had near 100% voter turnout, the unionist voters will be around 70% at best The barometer of Scottish national feeling will be the Scottish elections next year and you will see something very different Edited May 7, 2015 by grrclark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdubya Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Now you're just being silly Sadly I bet a hell of lot more in England will now see the result and their aspirations of change as being skewed by a party that want away from the English and will now be very hostile to the Scots, bet cameron if he is returned to power will be looking at some reneging of promises given pre the independence referendum. barnet formula funding another target? KW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLuke Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 What I don't understand about Scotland is that one minute there's campaigns to be completely independent of us and the next they want a say on how England is run. Maybe I am simplifying this too far. With now virtually the whole country voting for their national party we can dispose of them with immediate effect right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sadly I bet a hell of lot more in England will now see the result and their aspirations of change as being skewed by a party that want away from the English and will now be very hostile to the Scots, bet cameron if he is returned to power will be looking at some reneging of promises given pre the independence referendum. barnet formula funding another target? KW It should be KW, once we get tax raising powers then that formula needs to be modified as a result. Sadly people will look at this at face value and me as a lone voice wont combat that, but there will be a very different picture at the Scottish elections next year. What I don't understand about Scotland is that one minute there's campaigns to be completely independent of us and the next they want a say on how England is run. Maybe I am simplifying this too far. With now virtually the whole country voting for their national party we can dispose of them with immediate effect right? Yes you are being dangerously simplistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLuke Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Yes you are being dangerously simplistic Politics is my bogey subject, please do explain this further Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) It is not the whole of Scotland that has voted for SNP, there is still a likelihood it will be less than 50% of the vote. Remember that 35% share of the vote normally wins the seat, so actually a minority, but the majority percentage is split over the rest. Same here, it will be close to 50:50 between Nats and Unionists. The Nat's will also have an almost 100% turnout, the unionists wont First result in and the Kippers in 2nd for Sunderland, Labour win. Interesting Edited May 7, 2015 by grrclark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLuke Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) It is not the whole of Scotland that has voted for SNP, there is still a likelihood it will be less than 50% of the vote. Remember that 35% share of the vote normally wins the seat, so actually a minority, but the majority percentage is split over the rest. Same here, it will be close to 50:50 between Nats and Unionists. The Nat's will also have an almost 100% turnout, the unionists wont First result in and the Kippers in 2nd for Sunderland, Labour win. Interesting I'm not sure that clarifies why I was dangerously simplifying it With regards to the "whole of Scotland" not being correct, it is the whole of the people bothering to vote in Scotland. I can see how 35% is normally enough but does this really ring true in the case of Scotland? Edited May 7, 2015 by LondonLuke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 It isn't the whole pf the people, it is likely to be less than half the people I can see how 35% is normally enough but does this really ring true in the case of Scotland? Yes, on a seat by seat basis 35% would normally win the seat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Old Nicola sturgeon is talking about another referendum - bless her. Now, she's not making that up out of thin air - it really looks like they want out so crack on sweet heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grrclark Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Old Nicola sturgeon is talking about another referendum - bless her. Now, she's not making that up out of thin air - it really looks like they want out so crack on sweet heart. Undoubtably that is what she wants. If it is in their manifesto for next year then we will see if the rest of the country does. I seriously hope not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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