Jump to content

Grand national

Fisherman Mike

By Fisherman Mike,
in Off Topic

 Share

Recommended Posts

Dunkield

Dunkield

Posted
Posted

I am not a punter, but a guy I worked with was/is a bookie.

 

For what it is worth he said the only thing about the GN is that <almost> any of the horses could win it, some don't stand a chance, but overall it is a lottery as almost anything can happen going over some of those jumps - and has in the past!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
rb5037

rb5037

Posted
Posted

Am i right saying you can't bet yet? I need to wait till Friday or Saturday?

 

After my non betting life over the last year it's time to start again :/

 

Not sure who, probably just close my eyes and point at a name. :) :( :D

 

 

You know what i was like last year though, don't give me any tips coz that will not help you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jonno 357

jonno 357

Posted
Posted (edited)

Yes any horse could will a Grand National only if the going changes to a drastic bottomless ground

 

 

1.HEDGEHUNTER 10-11-12 R Walsh *****

Last year's winner must carry 11lbs more this time around, but such was the ease of his victory 12 months ago that he has a fine chance of becoming the first two-time winner since Red Rum in 1974. Warmed up for this race with an arguably career-best performance, chasing home War Of Attrition in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

2.ROYAL AUCLAIR 9-11-12 C Williams ***

Runner-up 12 months ago but little chance of reversing the form despite the revised weights. Also ran in the Gold Cup but could never land a blow and likely to be fighting it out for a place at best.

3.CORNISH REBEL 9-11-9 J Tizzard ***

Enigmatic brother of triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate and another of this year's runners, Inca Trail. One of the most inexperienced in the field having raced just nine times over fences, but rarely runs a bad race although finds it hard to win. Came within a nostril of winning the Scottish National last year and was going well until blundering his way out of the Gold Cup last month. Chance if he adapts to the fences.

4.THEREALBANDIT 9-11-9 R Johnson ***

Has been kept fresh since winning at Wetherby on Boxing Day which represents some of his best form. Could be suited by the nature of this race as he likes to be ridden with patience, and if he avoids trouble in running could have a squeak. Often looks weak in a finish though.

5.IT TAKES TIME 12-11-8 T Murphy **

A similar type to stablemate Therealbandit who crept into fourth place last year. Another to have had a quiet season and it is difficult to know if he retains his ability at the age of 12.

6.LE ROI MIGUEL 8-11-7 L Heard **

Plenty of promise in the early stages of his career but has shown little in four runs this season, and one win in the last three seasons is a poor return for a horse of his ability. Still to prove he stays more than three miles, either.

7.NATIVE UPMANSHIP 13-11-0 C O'Dwyer *

Formerly very useful Irish chaser but well into the veteran stage and little realistic chance of being involved in the finish with a big question mark over his stamina.

8.INNOX R Thornton 10-10-13 ****

Appeared to run out of gas last year when fading into seventh behind Hedgehunter, but all other evidence points to him having bags of stamina. Has looked better than ever this season with wins at Cheltenham and Sandown, and gets on well with today's jockey. One negative would be the poor recent form of his French stable.

9.SILVER BIRCH 9-10-12 S Thomas **

One-time favourite for the National after winning a race over the big fences in November 2004, but this season has gone pear-shaped and a wind problem has been diagnosed. Will wear different tack to assist his breathing but will undergo an operation in the summer and it is unrealistic to expect a form revival.

10.WHISPERED SECRET 7-10-12 R Greene *

Looks badly handicapped on early season form and has yet to prove he stays three miles, let alone further.

11.RINCE RI 13-10-12 A McNamara *

Formerly high class but has not won a race for an awful long time and at 13 is a light of former years.

12.PUNTAL 10-10-12 B Geraghty *

Off the course since December 2004 so impossible to know whether he is in the sort of form required to take a hand. Ran well in the National that year when prominent for a long way until unseating his rider at the 19th.

13.LORD OF ILLUSION 9-10-11 J Maguire **

Has had rather a stop-start season but the trainer has had this race in mind all year and he must have good ground. Ran well in the Gold Cup before being outclassed and has a much better chance at these weights. Really good jumper so should give a run for your money.

14.EBONY LIGHT 10-10-10 S Craine *

Moody type who has been in the form of his life this season, winning on three occasions. However, his new handicap mark reflects the sudden improvement and his hard season may have begun to take its toll at Haydock last time out, when he was pulled up. Didn't seem to enjoy his first experience of the big Aintree fences back in November.

15.FIRST GOLD 13-10-10 R McGrath *

Former high-class chaser who is firmly into the veteran stage these days, and has been running is though his best days are behind him. Three non-completions this season speak volumes although it is possible Aintree could see him in better light having run well on four occasions here in the past, albeit on the Mildmay Course.

16.CLAN ROYAL 11-10-10 A McCoy *****

Aintree specialist who was run out of it in a close finish with Amberleigh House in 2004 before being unluckily hampered at Becher's Brook last year when leading. Another who has been trained with one race in mind and has had three runs over hurdles to protect his handicap mark and bring him to peak fitness. Must go close and give the champion jockey his first win in the race.

17.LE DUC 7-10-10 J Moore ***

His jumping is never to be taken on trust but he popped round here twice in 2005, finishing second and third in big fields. Seemed to stay 3m3f on the latter occasion and comes into the race fresher than most, having unshipped his rider in his one race since the turn of the year.

18.FOREST GUNNER 12-10-10 Miss N Carberry *

Was sent off at 8/1 to provide Carrie Ford with a first victory in the race by a female jockey last year, but could only finish fifth after being prominent for a long way. Again ridden by a talented lady rider but comes into the race on the back of three non-completions. Likely to jump round again but it seems the best days are behind him.

 

19.SIR OJ 9-10-10 P Carberry **

Irish contender who won a big race at Cheltenham in December but that was over two-and-a-half-miles and that's just about as far as he has ever gone. Runs as though he will stay further, but not this far!

 

20.JOES EDGE 9-10-10 D Russell ****

Gutsy winner of the Scottish National last spring but has been below par in five runs this term, including when tailed off in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. However, he could return to form given this extreme test of stamina and he has a nice weight, and has been trained all season with this race in mind .

 

21.JUVEIGNEUR 9-10-9 M Fitzgerald ***

Successful at the Cheltenham Festival last year and belatedly returned to that form when beaten into second place in the William Hill Chase. Didn't appear to take to the big fences in the Topham Trophy 12 months ago but that could be put down to inexperience.

22.AMBERLEIGH HOUSE 14-10-9 G Lee **

Famously won two years ago for Red Rum's trainer Ginger McCain, but only 10th last year and his powers are clearly on the wane. Unlikely to have the legs to reach a place, but should get round once again.

23.BALLYCASSIDY 10-10-9 L Aspell ***

Starting to look well-handicapped on the best of his form and usually at his best in the spring with the better ground in his favour. Best effort for some time when fifth at Sandown in February and only a slight improvement on that could see him in the shake-up.

24.INCA TRAIL 10-10-9 B Harding ***

Trainer Ginger McCain recently splashed out a six figure sum for this moody brother of Best Mate and Cornish Rebel, who has a decent engine spoils himself with a poor attitude. Won two weak races for amateur riders last month by tiny margins, but if he is forced to do something he doesn't want to do - he won't.

25.GARVIVONNIAN 11-10-8 G Cotter ***

Hugely experienced Irish campaigner, who has shown arguably his best form in the past 12 months, including when winning the Becher Chase on this course in November. Looks sure to run well with a good recent effort behind Gold Cup third Forget The Past under his belt.

26.NUMBERSIXVALVERDE 10-10-8 N Madden ***

 

Irish raider who has a progressive profile overall and has run twice over hurdles since finishing fourth in a competitive handicap chase in January. A sound jumper who has all the attributes one would look for in a National winner, but all his form is on soft ground.

27.IZNOGOOD 10-10-8 T Scudamore **

 

Don't be put off by the name - he's got plenty of useful form to his name down the years although he hasn't produced it for 18 months. If champion trainer Martin Pipe has worked the oracle this one could be a live outsider.

28.JACK HIGH 11-10-7 D Casey ***

Decent performer who won the Betfred Gold Cup last spring. Has been brought to the boil steadily by Ted Walsh, who trained Papillon to win this race in 2000. Will appreciate the ground and is another with place claims, without being quite good enough to win.

29.HAUT DE GAMME 11-10-7 K Mercer ***

Another who loves the course and has twice jumped round without any bother, but has had plenty of racing over the years and unlikely to be improving at his age. However, his stable's horses have been running well recently and he could run into a place.

30.NIL DESPERANDUM 9-10-7 T Treacy *

Has not fulfilled the promise of his novice season but ran well to finish sixth 12 months ago without threatening to take a hand in the finish. However, ran poorly over the course in November and difficult to see where the impropvement is going to come from.

31.BARON WINDRUSH 8-10-7 C Llewellyn **

Looked a stayer with a future 18 months ago and has the scope to jump round, but he hasn't gone on since then and has had two extremely hard races in the last six weeks.

32.HEROS COLLONGES 11-10-7 JP McNamara *

Defeat over hurdles at odds of 2/5 last time out does not bode well for the chances of this horse, who faded out of contention 12 months ago and once again looked to have stamina limitations over the course in November.

33.TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN 11-10-7 P Buchanan **

Stays longer than the mother-in-law but has run just twice in the last two years, showing very little on both occasions. The more rain the better.

34.RISK ACCESSOR 11-10-6 N Fehily *

A useful performer at his best but is very keen in his races and is unlikely to last home over this distance. Has got no further than the sixth in two previous tries in this race.

35.DIRECT ACCESS 11-10-6 A Dobbin ***

Talented performer with very few miles on the clock for a horse of his age. Was fancied on his first attempt at these fences in November but got no further than the first. That experience may have left its mark, otherwise has solid each-way claims.

36.COLNEL RAYBURN 10-10-6 J Cullen ***

Big horse who was quietly fancied last year but was being outpaced when badly hampered at Becher's second time around and eventually pulled up. Softer ground this year will suit much better, and like so many other Irish contenders, has had an easy time having been campaigned largely over hurdles this season. Definite each-way claims.

37.IRIS ROYAL 10-10-6 M Foley **

Lightly raced in recent years and things have not gone his way at all this season. However, he is one of the better jumpers in the field and would have a chance on his best form of three years ago.

38.ROSS COMM 10-10-5 D Elsworth ****

Will bid to become the first grey to win since Nicholas Silver in 1961, but this improving 10-year-old has all the credentials to run a massive race. His jumping is sound, all ground conditions come alike and his stamina is proven. Comes into the race on the back of an easy victory two weeks ago and rates a cracking each-way bet.

39.SHOTGUN WILLY 12-10-5 A Tinkler *

Has not shown any worthwhile form for three years and he didn't seem to enjoy the experience when favourite for this race in 2003.

40.JUST IN DEBT 10-10-4 A Dempsey **

Loves Aintree having run over the course four times, but stamina has just given out on two runs over the shorter distance and no reason to think he will improve for the step back up in trip.

CONCLUSION

It's difficult to look past the two favourites - Hedgehunter and Clan Royal - with preference for the latter, who was terribly unlucky last year and can give champion jockey Tony McCoy his first victory in the race. Hedgehunter has top weight and hard race in the gold cup to overcome, so some each-way value can be found in Joes Edge, Numbersixvalverde and Ross Comm.

Edited by jonno 357
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dunkield

Dunkield

Posted
Posted (edited)

I have drawn Risk Accessor in the office sweepstake so thats another 2 quid down the toilet :*)

 

But, someone who should know has told me that Garvivonnian stands as much chance as anything else, but followed it up by saying that sticking a pin in paper bilndfolded also works quite well :/

Edited by stuartp
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...