Boris has it now

[oowee]

4 hours ago, SpringDon said:

Really? Do you have a source? There seems little point on a test that is only marginally better than a coin toss.

For what? My daughter is the source she is a doc on Covid. sending patients home because despite advice many are turning up at hospital. Testing is procedural, but then as there is no treatment sending home follows.

 She does not do the testing and will have said what she has read or been told. 

This might help https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-test-kits-withdrawn-spain-poor-accuracy-rate

Or this https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-testing#how-does-it-work

Or this https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250

[SpringDon]

9 minutes ago, oowee said:

For what? My daughter is the source she is a doc on Covid. sending patients home because despite advice many are turning up at hospital. Testing is procedural, but then as there is no treatment sending home follows.

 She does not do the testing and will have said what she has read or been told. 

This might help https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-test-kits-withdrawn-spain-poor-accuracy-rate

Or this https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-testing#how-does-it-work

Or this https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250

Source for the accuracy. But thanks to the links it seems to be true. However, I think it’s misleading to single out the covid test since the accuracy of numerous viral tests (including flu) is only between 50%-70%. So I would repeat my general question, what’s the point?

[oowee]

4 minutes ago, SpringDon said:

Source for the accuracy. But thanks to the links it seems to be true. However, I think it’s misleading to single out the covid test since the accuracy of numerous viral tests (including flu) is only between 50%-70%. So I would repeat my general question, what’s the point?

Comfort with a paracetamol. 

The public likes to be spoon fed and treated at the lowest common denominator level. 

[eddoakley]

So if/when Boris at al have recovered after a few days and have continued working in between does that not demonstrate that (almost) everyone should do the same?

 

Would it not make more sense to isolate and assist the small percanteage of the population that are old/infirm than to lock up everyone?

Especially when "everyone" seems to mean maybe half of the people.

The massive sums of money and efforts could surely be put towards identifying and helping the small (estimated 5%) of the populace that might suffer more serious effects than those being suffered by bj, Hancock, prince Charles etc?

Thus allowing the rest of the world out of prison and back to life?

Thoughts?

Edd

[johnphilip]

1 hour ago, eddoakley said:

So if/when Boris at al have recovered after a few days and have continued working in between does that not demonstrate that (almost) everyone should do the same?

 

Would it not make more sense to isolate and assist the small percanteage of the population that are old/infirm than to lock up everyone?

Especially when "everyone" seems to mean maybe half of the people.

The massive sums of money and efforts could surely be put towards identifying and helping the small (estimated 5%) of the populace that might suffer more serious effects than those being suffered by bj, Hancock, prince Charles etc?

Thus allowing the rest of the world out of prison and back to life?

Thoughts?

Edd

Sorry no , this ugly  virus , knows no bounds , it is killing most age groups .

[Retsdon]

5 hours ago, eddoakley said:

he massive sums of money and efforts could surely be put towards identifying and helping the small (estimated 5%) of the populace that might suffer more serious effects

Well, among men of all ages infected with CoV2,  a Chinese study put the death rate at 2.8%. (women fare much better at 1.7%) And something like 12-15% percent of all adults (either men or women) who get the infection will require quite serious medical attention.

Using the Chinese figures as a basis (and nobody has yet come up with any figures that substantially dispute them) We can do the maths. There are about 40 million adults in the UK over the age of 35. https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/  So, if half of those are men and they all get it, at 2.8% that's 560,000 dead blokes. And if 12% of the adult population need hospitalization  - that's  4 million  people.

This 'herd immunity' idea is like marching people over the top in 1916. Unless you're prepared to accept massive casualties, the only solution is to go all out to try and either break or at least slow down the chain of infection so as to buy time for a vaccine to be developed and distributed. That will definitely happen - but it won't happen in the near future. Time, it's all about buying time.

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Retsdon

[SpringDon]

I’m no longer so sure. There is no antibody test yet so you can’t tell if someone had it and recovered. If the infection test is so inaccurate, it’s not even possible to be sure who has it.

The way it seems to pop up randomly (eg. Boris) suggests that the virus is widespread with asymptomatic carriers/sufferers. Without valid testing, there seems to be a lot of guesswork, I mean, modelling.

[Retsdon]

3 hours ago, SpringDon said:

The way it seems to pop up randomly (eg. Boris) suggests that the virus is widespread with asymptomatic carriers/sufferers.

The Chinese estimated properly asymptomatic carriers at about 2% of those infected.

 It pops up randomly  because a) it's very easily transmissable  b) the incubation period is 5-10 days and c), because people are infectious during the incubation period before they know they're sick. Who, for the last 10 days, could name everyone they came into contact with, or everyone who touched something immediately before they did? Maybe if you're a hill farmer in Upper Cymtwrch or whatever (I must have got it off the bloke who delivered the fertiliser last Wednesday afternoon!) it might be doable. But for the overwhelming majority -unless they knew the person and knew that person was sick-  it would be an impossible task to actually identify  who had given them the infection. In other words it would arrive out of a blue sky. 

The virus might be more widespread that people realized but that doesn't mean it's asymptomatic. It just means that it's spreading faster than the symptoms are becoming manifest. Thats why those exponential case graphs look like they do. The people who'll be filling the hospital wards a la Italy in 10 days time are already infected. They just don't know it yet.

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Retsdon

[oldypigeonpopper]

On 27/03/2020 at 16:48, oowee said:

Yes yes and of course yes but we must test the health workers too and we are not currently doing so. 

hello, looks like all systems go now with the NHS staff, how is your Daughter ?

[oowee]

Yes thats great news that they are getting the testing. Thx for asking she is very tired but all good, her hands are bad. I just sent her a batch of O'keeffes hand cream. They are expecting the peak early next week so fingers crossed that this lockdown has paid dividends. Incubation is between 5 and 11 days

17 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, looks like all systems go now with the NHS staff, how is your Daughter ?

. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by oowee

[oldypigeonpopper]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

Yes thats great news that they are getting the testing. Thx for asking she is very tired but all good, her hands are bad. They are expecting the peak early next week so fingers crossed that this lockdown has paid dividends. Incubation is between 5 and 11 days

. 

hello, that would be very good news,