Todays budget

[Gordon R]

Mungler - I fear you are on another Ukraine thread. No-one wants to hear the voice of sanity. 🙂

[Weihrauch17]

10 minutes ago, Scully said:

Or like most of them really, and not just Tory politicians?

You give the impression you think this is some sort of apocalyptic event, that economic ( actual or feared ) crisis is something new. It isn’t. It happens. People get through it by making the best of things, and move on. Millions of lives aren’t being put at risk. 
It’s not like we’re at war. Get a grip. 

 

Yes they are invariably rich enough to have a play at being important then walk away leaving the country to carry the can.  We are in hard times agreed some of it out of our control but this is needlessly self induced damage from KK on a huge scale for no good reason.  I didn't say millions of lives were at risk did I but millions of peoples jobs and homes are needlessly being put at risk.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Weihrauch17

[Mungler]

1 minute ago, Weihrauch17 said:

Yes they are invariably rich enough to have a play at being important then walk away leaving the country to carry the can.  We are in hard times agreed some of it out of our control but this is needlessly self induced damage from KK on a huge scale for no good reason.

And what do you suggest?

 

[Weihrauch17]

1 minute ago, Mungler said:

And what do you suggest?

 

Reverse some of his mini (that wasn't) budget that wasn't needed and has the potential to be incredibly damaging. 

[Mungler]

3 minutes ago, Weihrauch17 said:

Reverse some of his mini (that wasn't) budget that wasn't needed and has the potential to be incredibly damaging. 

Well, that will fix it all. And we stumble with the rest of Europe into a decade long recession / depression. 

[Weihrauch17]

5 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Well, that will fix it all. And we stumble with the rest of Europe into a decade long recession / depression. 

How does trashing the pound, markets and driving interest rates through the roof to support a 5% tax cut for the richest 1% of the country become a price worth paying .  It will drive us further into recession not avoid it, your logic just like KK's is totally deranged. 

[Mungler]

Just now, Weihrauch17 said:

How does trashing the pound, markets and driving interest rates through the roof to support a 5% tax cut for the richest 1% of the country become a price worth paying .  It will drive us further into recession not avoid it, your logic just like KK's is totally deranged. 

You really think a minor tax cut has done all that?

 

[Scully]

7 minutes ago, Weihrauch17 said:

Yes they are invariably rich enough to have a play at being important then walk away leaving the country to carry the can.  We are in hard times agreed some of it out of our control but this is needlessly self induced damage from KK on a huge scale for no good reason.  I didn't say millions of lives were at risk did I but millions of peoples jobs and homes are needlessly being put at risk.

It has always been so. Cameron lost the referendum vote and simply walked away, back to his multi-millionaire lifestyle, as did Blair after deceiving the general public into believing the threat from WMD was real and imminent, resulting in an impressive death toll. Neither have been touched by either event. Alastair Campbell has gone onto celebrity status regardless of ‘sexing up’ the WMD dossier on behalf of his boss. 
You said Russian roulette was recklessly being played with the lives of tens of millions of people, interpret that any way it suits. 🤷‍♂️
If you’re waiting for, or expecting, politicians to create a snug, safe and consistently rosy prospect for your life, then you’re in for one helluva shock. It is up to each and every one of us to do that, not politicians. 

[Mungler]

 

6 minutes ago, Scully said:

If you’re waiting for, or expecting, politicians to create a snug, safe and consistently rosy prospect for your life, then you’re in for one helluva shock. It is up to each and every one of us to do that, not politicians. 

Amen to that

Edited September 27, 2022 by Mungler

[Weihrauch17]

9 minutes ago, Scully said:

It has always been so. Cameron lost the referendum vote and simply walked away, back to his multi-millionaire lifestyle, as did Blair after deceiving the general public into believing the threat from WMD was real and imminent, resulting in an impressive death toll. Neither have been touched by either event. Alastair Campbell has gone onto celebrity status regardless of ‘sexing up’ the WMD dossier on behalf of his boss. 
You said Russian roulette was recklessly being played with the lives of tens of millions of people, interpret that any way it suits. 🤷‍♂️
If you’re waiting for, or expecting, politicians to create a snug, safe and consistently rosy prospect for your life, then you’re in for one helluva shock. It is up to each and every one of us to do that, not politicians. 

I agree to an extent but you can create wealth that Politicians can needlessly destroy and destroy the value of currency just as they are doing for many right now.  That is out of our control and nothing to do with providing for yourself once retired.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Weihrauch17

[Mungler]

Just now, Weihrauch17 said:

I agree to an extent but you can create wealth that Politicians can needlessly destroy and destroy the value of money just as they are doing for many right now.  That is out of our control and nothing to do with providing for yourself.

Or it could be that they are radically pushing a new plan and going for growth because they know that doing nothing will consign us to a decade of misery.

Singapore on Thames - it’s the only way as far as I can see.

What else is going to drive our economy currently in the doldrums and with the whole of neighbouring Europe in just a big a mess (if not worse if you look at EU debt).

[Weihrauch17]

1 minute ago, Mungler said:

Or it could be that they are radically pushing a new plan and going for growth because they know that doing nothing will consign us to a decade of misery.

Singapore on Thames - it’s the only way as far as I can see.

What else is going to drive our economy currently in the doldrums and with the whole of neighbouring Europe in just a big a mess (if not worse if you look at EU debt).

We shall see in time, I don't see anything other than a deeper depression from his actions.

[Scully]

7 minutes ago, Weihrauch17 said:

I agree to an extent but you can create wealth that Politicians can needlessly destroy and destroy the value of currency just as they are doing for many right now.  That is out of our control and nothing to do with providing for yourself once retired.

Like I said, It has always been so. Anyone looking for guarantees has to be incredibly naive. Life is a constant rollercoaster. 

[Weihrauch17]

4 minutes ago, Scully said:

Like I said, It has always been so. Anyone looking for guarantees has to be incredibly naive. Life is a constant rollercoaster. 

That might be but I don't expect our Government to deeply damage things for absolutely no good reason.  

[enfieldspares]

7 hours ago, Lloyd90 said:

Without a doubt. 
 

She’ll be gone by the next GE. 
 

Caretaker role, far pay, fat pension, shaft everyone and no consequence.

And a picture on the staircase at Downing Street then £350 a day for turning up to the reputedly "best club in London" (the House of Lords) with free parking and expenses on top. Not bad for an overgrown undergraduate who called for the abolition of the monarchy.

[Mungler]

16 minutes ago, Weihrauch17 said:

That might be but I don't expect our Government to deeply damage things for absolutely no good reason.  

There’s potential for damage from the plan if it goes wrong, but to say damage has occurred based on 1 clear day’s market reaction / activity after what was a revolutionary bombshell plan landing is not giving it a chance to succeed. 

 

[Scully]

6 minutes ago, Weihrauch17 said:

That might be but I don't expect our Government to deeply damage things for absolutely no good reason.  

Whether things have been damaged is dependant on one’s opinion, or possibly even more so, ones agenda. 
You’re going to be an angry man your entire life if you expect politicians to cater to your needs. 

[Mungler]

9 minutes ago, enfieldspares said:

And a picture on the staircase at Downing Street then £350 a day for turning up to the reputedly "best club in London" (the House of Lords) with free parking and expenses on top. Not bad for an overgrown undergraduate who called for the abolition of the monarchy.

What a strange fixation with what politicians earn. In the scheme of things they are under paid compared to what they were getting in their old jobs. Look at Starmer, he’s a QC / KC for heavens sake. A decent commercial silk is on £10k-£20k a day. A street fighter criminal silk is still thousands a day / bundles more than the PM.

I reckon a trainee non qualified solicitor working in london charges more than £350 for just 1 hour’s work.

.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Mungler

[Scully]

3 minutes ago, Mungler said:

What a strange fixation with what politicians earn. In the scheme of things they are under paid compared to what they were getting in their old jobs. Look at Starmer, he’s a QC / KC for heavens sake. I reckon a trainee non qualified solicitor working in london charges more than £350 for just 1 hour’s work.

 

Quite. Envy of the wealth of others is as amusing as it is unattractive ( like a reverse snobbery ) and typically socialist in my experience.
I always find it confusing, because if socialism is the answer, how come there are wealthy ones? 🤔

[Weihrauch17]

53 minutes ago, Scully said:

Whether things have been damaged is dependant on one’s opinion, or possibly even more so, ones agenda. 
You’re going to be an angry man your entire life if you expect politicians to cater to your needs. 

I will stick with the factual evidence. The pound, markets, inflation and interest rates.  Should I expect Politicians to make life much worse for all of us and thank them!  Jesus.  When the Govt stops people being able to pay their rent or mortgage they are done.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Weihrauch17

[Mice!]

3 hours ago, Lloyd90 said:

The current big increases in the cost of food, fuel, energy, and mortgages haven’t impacted your standard of living in the slightest? 

Honestly,  no they haven't. 

Everything has gone up, biggest thing being fuel(diesel) but food as well, Everything is noticeable but I haven't stopped and thought I'd better not use the car as much, or cut back on say unnecessary little treats in the shopping,  but then I don't spend beyond my means.

 

[Mice!]

32 minutes ago, Weihrauch17 said:

When the Govt stops people being able to pay their rent or mortgage they are done.

Mortgage rates have been ridiculously low for years, because of this many people have took on much bigger mortgages than they should have, instead of taking something smaller and more manageable,  how did people cope during the 80s was it when the rates hit 15%

Lads in work were talking about their mobile phone bills this week £40+ a month 😳😳 mine is £7 there are ways to save money if people want to. 

[Mungler]

5 hours ago, Weihrauch17 said:

I will stick with the factual evidence. The pound [insert any other currency here], markets, inflation and interest rates. 

Every country on the planet in the same boat, all affected by global events - covid and Ukraine. But ah yes, we have Brexit in the mix to contend with.

If anything, avoiding that last Xmas lockdown that the rest of the world got suckered into helped, but any gain for the UK has been negated by Brexit. 

Brexit will do nothing but damage the UK unless the UK alters it’s being and the way it does business in order to stand any chance of gaining from Brexit. More of the same but locked out of Europe will finish us off or force a rejoin.

The measures being implemented now should have started 3 years ago, but for covid.

Pause, park the socialist driven jealously, forget about a handful of bankers, their bonuses and the less than 1% top rate tax payers - all marginal stuff designed to inflame Daily Star readers, it’s all much bigger than that.

[Mungler]

Okay, this is long and it’s borrowed from elsewhere but someone far brighter and better paid than me has just repeated everything I’ve typed on this thread. I should have worked in the City 😀

 

 

The Telegraph 27 September 

The prominent hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has defended his bets against the pound, arguing that the historic rout in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts was triggered by Remainers in the City who “hate” the Government.

Mr Odey, arguably Britain’s best known hedge fund chief, told The Telegraph: “I never felt the kind of hate that Friday stirred up for a long time.

“Amongst lots of friends of mine who are Remainers, they just decided that they hate this Government. Obviously Kwasi they hate now as well, and they think Liz Truss is useless. They can't stand poor Jacob Rees-Mogg.”

Mr Odey, 63, branded attacks on his fund’s decision to bet against sterling and UK gilts as “rubbish”. Conspiracy theorists on Twitter have seized on Kwasi Kwarteng’s brief consultancy for Odey Asset Management as supposed evidence of collusion.

Mr Odey confirmed that his so-called “short positions” against UK assets – which allow his fund to make money as prices fall – has been in place for months on a belief that the Bank of England was failing to curb inflation. Prior to Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget last Friday – which precipitated the sterling’s downfall – Odey’s flagship fund swelled in value by 140pc in the year to Sept 14.

He said: “My love is grouse shooting. And we are in the middle of [the season] right now.

“The truth is that I didn’t do anything on Friday. I shot. I haven't put a trade on for the last two months. I didn’t need to. This was easy to see from miles away and didn't depend on Kwasi coming into government or anything else.”

But Mr Odey, who last week married fellow financier Diana Vitkova, 38, warned that the worst may yet be to come and that sterling may soon be worth less than a dollar.
 
“In the short term, I think the pressure is still going to be downwards on the pound,” he says.

Mr Odey, who despite being a prominent supporter of Brexit made £220m by betting against the pound during the EU referendum, has his own theory as to why the rout against the British currency was - and continues to be - so pronounced.

He said: “The City loved it when Theresa May was in. It is in a deeply conservative place that doesn't change. 

“Until we got to Covid, governments didn't spend money, all they did was increase taxes. Osborne was the worst of them. And this mini-Budget was just ripping out the last of Osborne's legacy.”

Despite the short-term pain, Mr Odey predicted that Kwarteng and Truss’s prescription for the economy will deliver a turnaround before long.

He said: “I look at this and think I'm now, for the first time, in the medium term very optimistic about the UK.

“The Remainers would love it that our situation [to be] much worse for having left Europe. But actually in the last four years Germany has lent Southern Europe €400bn. That is a monstrous amount of money that will never get paid back.    

“Europe's got all the same problems that we have in terms of inflation coming through, but it doesn't have a Kwasi trying to sort of introduce a marketplace again… incentivising people to do the right thing rather than the wrong thing.”
 
“I always remember that sense of sort of, wow, when [Nigel] Lawson in March of 1987, cut the top rate of tax from 60 to 40. And one that there would be rioting in the streets.
 
“We are all pre-conditioned to move very gingerly.
 
“Whereas this is a government that has taken some big, big decisions. I don’t think it was politically motivated so much as it was, it was people [in the City] just hating that they might even get this right.”
 
Mr Odey attacked Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey over the current turmoil.  

“The Bank of England and therefore everybody else had a completely rosy view of inflation a year out. So they still think inflation is going to be 3pc. They now think it's about 3.5pc in a year's time.
 
“In order to have that view, they have to also believe that there will be a deep recession between now and then.

“But that didn't take into account the fact that the Government was very unlikely to want to recession two years before a general election. So what happened on Friday was the Government making sure that the recession was going to be much milder.  

“The Bank of England should have put up interest rates by 1pc on the day before the mini-Budget, because they must have known what Kwasi was about to tell them.” 

Bailey’s failure to control inflation has renewed calls for a review of the Bank’s independence.

The Telegraph reported on Monday that plans to rewrite its mandate have been pushed back to next spring, however.

Mr Odey said it is almost under effective government control already.

“Remember that as interest rates go up, the Bank of England finds itself holding lots of government debt, which is going down and on borrowed money, which is going up. What the Government is doing now bankrupts the Bank of England.    

“The Bank of England's probably losing about £32bn a year. How independent can you be if you are losing that amount of money?

[12gauge82]

38 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Okay, this is long and it’s borrowed from elsewhere but someone far brighter and better paid than me has just repeated everything I’ve typed on this thread. I should have worked in the City 😀

 

 

The Telegraph 27 September 

The prominent hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has defended his bets against the pound, arguing that the historic rout in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts was triggered by Remainers in the City who “hate” the Government.

Mr Odey, arguably Britain’s best known hedge fund chief, told The Telegraph: “I never felt the kind of hate that Friday stirred up for a long time.

“Amongst lots of friends of mine who are Remainers, they just decided that they hate this Government. Obviously Kwasi they hate now as well, and they think Liz Truss is useless. They can't stand poor Jacob Rees-Mogg.”

Mr Odey, 63, branded attacks on his fund’s decision to bet against sterling and UK gilts as “rubbish”. Conspiracy theorists on Twitter have seized on Kwasi Kwarteng’s brief consultancy for Odey Asset Management as supposed evidence of collusion.

Mr Odey confirmed that his so-called “short positions” against UK assets – which allow his fund to make money as prices fall – has been in place for months on a belief that the Bank of England was failing to curb inflation. Prior to Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget last Friday – which precipitated the sterling’s downfall – Odey’s flagship fund swelled in value by 140pc in the year to Sept 14.

He said: “My love is grouse shooting. And we are in the middle of [the season] right now.

“The truth is that I didn’t do anything on Friday. I shot. I haven't put a trade on for the last two months. I didn’t need to. This was easy to see from miles away and didn't depend on Kwasi coming into government or anything else.”

But Mr Odey, who last week married fellow financier Diana Vitkova, 38, warned that the worst may yet be to come and that sterling may soon be worth less than a dollar.
 
“In the short term, I think the pressure is still going to be downwards on the pound,” he says.

Mr Odey, who despite being a prominent supporter of Brexit made £220m by betting against the pound during the EU referendum, has his own theory as to why the rout against the British currency was - and continues to be - so pronounced.

He said: “The City loved it when Theresa May was in. It is in a deeply conservative place that doesn't change. 

“Until we got to Covid, governments didn't spend money, all they did was increase taxes. Osborne was the worst of them. And this mini-Budget was just ripping out the last of Osborne's legacy.”

Despite the short-term pain, Mr Odey predicted that Kwarteng and Truss’s prescription for the economy will deliver a turnaround before long.

He said: “I look at this and think I'm now, for the first time, in the medium term very optimistic about the UK.

“The Remainers would love it that our situation [to be] much worse for having left Europe. But actually in the last four years Germany has lent Southern Europe €400bn. That is a monstrous amount of money that will never get paid back.    

“Europe's got all the same problems that we have in terms of inflation coming through, but it doesn't have a Kwasi trying to sort of introduce a marketplace again… incentivising people to do the right thing rather than the wrong thing.”
 
“I always remember that sense of sort of, wow, when [Nigel] Lawson in March of 1987, cut the top rate of tax from 60 to 40. And one that there would be rioting in the streets.
 
“We are all pre-conditioned to move very gingerly.
 
“Whereas this is a government that has taken some big, big decisions. I don’t think it was politically motivated so much as it was, it was people [in the City] just hating that they might even get this right.”
 
Mr Odey attacked Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey over the current turmoil.  

“The Bank of England and therefore everybody else had a completely rosy view of inflation a year out. So they still think inflation is going to be 3pc. They now think it's about 3.5pc in a year's time.
 
“In order to have that view, they have to also believe that there will be a deep recession between now and then.

“But that didn't take into account the fact that the Government was very unlikely to want to recession two years before a general election. So what happened on Friday was the Government making sure that the recession was going to be much milder.  

“The Bank of England should have put up interest rates by 1pc on the day before the mini-Budget, because they must have known what Kwasi was about to tell them.” 

Bailey’s failure to control inflation has renewed calls for a review of the Bank’s independence.

The Telegraph reported on Monday that plans to rewrite its mandate have been pushed back to next spring, however.

Mr Odey said it is almost under effective government control already.

“Remember that as interest rates go up, the Bank of England finds itself holding lots of government debt, which is going down and on borrowed money, which is going up. What the Government is doing now bankrupts the Bank of England.    

“The Bank of England's probably losing about £32bn a year. How independent can you be if you are losing that amount of money?

Very interesting, thanks for posting 👍