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Energy supply crisis here already?


serrac
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A leaflet from SP Energy Networks landed on my doormat a couple of days ago:  Important Information - Preparing for a power cut

In the middle of a few paragraphs of common-sense information, like buy a torch and keep your mobile phone charged up, was the following:

"Emergency power cuts due to electricity demand shortages:

National Grid Electricity Sytem Operator(NGESCO) balances energy supply and demand to make sure there's enough electricity for every home and business in the UK.
SP Energy Networks and other network operators may be instructed by the NGESCO to implement emergency power cuts if there's not enough electricity to meet demand. 
We're required to do this by law.
Emergency power cuts across the UK are unlikely and would only happen if there was an extreme shortage of gas and electricity to meet demand
If there is an emergency power cut you will lose power for around 3 hours at a time.  It's possible you could lose power more than once."

I have questions...

I've never received one of these leaflets before, does the fact I've received it now mean there's an elevated risk of supply shortage this winter?
If there's a recognised risk of not meeting current demand, how are we going to fare when everyone is driving an EV car and heating their house with electricity...?

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41 minutes ago, old man said:

Is it not recognised that the power network is not able to perform to meet the challenges?

Yes it is recognised. The network will have to be trebled to be able to cope. 

But it's not a problem because we haven't got the electricity generation capacity anyway.

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Just now, Vince Green said:

Yes it is recognised. The network will have to be trebled to be able to cope. 

But it's not a problem because we haven't got the electricity generation capacity anyway.

I would hazard that the last place that will be cut will be Islington, if not London as a whole, densest population with lowest generating capacity.

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Is there a crisis, well, Yes and no.

 

Yes, there is an electricity crisis already but the shortage is covered by imports (up to 6GW) by imports from the EU.

No, in that there has been no real times when we come close to brown outs, nor rolling blackouts, but they are becoming more likely in decreasing reliability from 99.99% to circa 99.75%.

It may not sound a lot in difference but in network reliability that a small change in reliability only has to drop to 97% to become a serious network issue.

 

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