Two Tier Kier setting out the pain that is coming.......................

[oowee]

57 minutes ago, oowee said:

This is not the first time that it falls to the Labour Party to rebuild this country. 😍 Brought a tear to me eye.

There is an awful lot of work in this budget. Lots of good investment proposals, looks like the opposition has been caught off guard. Good to see proposals all across the country. £22bn for NHS plus £3.1bn capital money for maintenance and rebuilding delivering on the Johnson blathering. 

Funds for the infected blood scandal and the Horizon compensation is long overdue. 

Excellent all round but could have dragged in more cash from fuel. The increases in council house funding looks light given the 2nd home tax up to 5%. 

Overall you have to be impressed with that budget. 

[Rewulf]

8 minutes ago, oowee said:

Overall you have to be impressed with that budget. 

Not really.
It raises a theoretical £40 billion, of which nearly £15 billion is going to be paid out in historical compensation claims.
£22 billion towards the NHS , likely half of that will be wage increases as half the NHS budget is wages.

The rest of it is flotsam and of little consequence.

[oowee]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Not really.
It raises a theoretical £40 billion, of which nearly £15 billion is going to be paid out in historical compensation claims.
£22 billion towards the NHS , likely half of that will be wage increases as half the NHS budget is wages.

The rest of it is flotsam and of little consequence.

Failed economy, outstanding pay claims, outstanding compensation schemes. This is a govt getting the foundations right. 

Many would rather not deal with reality, bury their head and pretend that this fiscal hole was all a bad dream. Others get it sorted 👍

Some of the flotsam is clever.

[Rewulf]

26 minutes ago, oowee said:

Many would rather not deal with reality, bury their head and pretend that this fiscal hole was all a bad dream. Others get it sorted 👍

Labour allegedly didnt even notice the fiscal black hole until they were in power, and even now, the terms of where it comes from, or how the figure was derived are the subject of speculation....

https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-black-hole-figures/

'Over the past few months Labour has repeatedly claimed to have inherited a “£22 billion black hole” from the previous government.'

But closer examination casts doubt on this.

 

“£22 billion black hole”

We’ve already written a lot about this figure. It comes from a Public Spending Audit published by the Treasury in July which found that in 2024/25 “the forecast overspend on departmental spending is expected to be £21.9 billion above the resource departmental expenditure limit (RDEL) totals set by the Treasury at Spring Budget 2024.” (RDEL broadly refers to budgets for day-to-day spending on the running costs of public services and administration by government departments).

It said this stemmed from a series of “unfunded policy decisions”, the impact of higher than expected inflation, increased pressures on public spending due to global events and public sector pay rises (with around 40% of the figure accounted for by public sector pay awards in 2024/25—a decision taken by the Labour party).

The £21.9 billion was a net figure. Gross additional pressures totalling £35.3 billion were identified by the Treasury, and approximately £13.4 billion of these pressures were then offset by a combination of reserve funds and other allowances.

The additional pressures identified were as follows:

• 2024-25 public sector pay awards (£9.4bn) 
• “Normal Reserve claims” (£8.6bn)—as explained below, we don’t have full details of what this includes 
• Additional asylum and illegal migration costs (£6.4bn) 
• Additional rail passenger services and maintenance costs (£2.9bn)
• New policy commitments (£2.6bn)—this included extending the Household Support Fund to September 2024, launching the Advanced British Standard qualification framework and additional bus services support
• Overhang from previous years’ pay awards (£2.2bn) 
• Additional military and civilian support for Ukraine (£1.7bn)
• Additional health costs (excluding pay) (£1.5bn)

[JohnfromUK]

45 minutes ago, oowee said:

This is a govt getting the foundations right.

If "getting the foundations right" is taxing private jobs (by NI increases) to give pay rises to (already mostly well paid) public employees - and borrowing more to pour money into the bottomless pit that is the NHS, perhaps so.

This will lead to higher unemployment, higher interest rates and higher inflation.  I see the OBR have decreased the forecast expected growth after 2025.

- so not a budget for growth at all.

 

[oowee]

Yep pretty impressive hole. 

For completeness £11bn for infected blood and £1.5bn Horizon.

[Mungler]

The NHS has always been in crisis and consumes money like water cascading out of a bucket full of holes. The NHS can never have enough money because it is so appallingly badly run and wasteful, like all public sector run bodies. And here we are throwing more tax payer money into that bucket.

As for an improvement in public services - not a chance. It's tax payer money thrown into the public sector. It will be lost in poor productivity and poor management.

Inflation is predicted to run at a far higher rate than growth.

Indeed, I see no growth or incentive for growth in that budget. Why bother? Everyone I know and see in business is currently "stabilizing" and you can hear the sound of ladders being pulled up across the Country.

We need Reform and the Tories to do a deal and look forward to Thatcher Mk2 in 5 years - we'll all be ready for it, as we re-run the 1970's.

 

Edited October 30 by Mungler

[oowee]

1 minute ago, JohnfromUK said:

If "getting the foundations right" is taxing private jobs (by NI increases) to give pay rises to (already mostly well paid) public employees - and borrowing more to pour money into the bottomless pit that is the NHS, perhaps so.

This will lead to higher unemployment, higher interest rates and higher inflation.  I see the OBR have decreased the forecast expected growth after 2025.

- so not a budget for growth at all.

 

Top 10% pay more tax and everyone else better off. 🙂 Budget for the working man. 

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, oowee said:

Budget for the working man.

It's a budget to put the working man on the dole by taxing his employer.

It's only the public employee who will benefit

 

[oowee]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

It's a budget to put the working man on the dole by taxing his employer.

It's only the public employee who will benefit

 

Tough decisions had to be made. Those that have must pay more. Those in need are prioritised. We cannot just ignore the problems of neglect over the last 14 years.

[Rewulf]

Just now, oowee said:

We cannot just ignore the problems of neglect over the last 14 years.

We wont be able to ignore the problems of neglect, and spectacular mismanagement over the next 5 years either.
Thats assuming this government lasts long enough to make it to the next scheduled election, I have strong doubts they will.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

Tough decisions had to be made.

On that we are agreed

When you are spending more than you earn, the answer is not to borrow more and take money out of your business, it is to SPEND LESS

You cannot borrow your way out of debt; Labour try it every time - and it ends in tears - and this will be just the same in 5 or more years.

[oowee]

13 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

On that we are agreed

When you are spending more than you earn, the answer is not to borrow more and take money out of your business, it is to SPEND LESS

You cannot borrow your way out of debt; Labour try it every time - and it ends in tears - and this will be just the same in 5 or more years.

Its not a household budget. 

 

Also I think we should congratulate Rachel Reeves on delivering a masterly performance. 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

Its not a household budget. 

Debt is debt.  Borrowing is borrowing.  You can't reduce debt by borrowing.

 

2 minutes ago, oowee said:

Also I think we should congratulate Rachel Reeves on delivering a masterly performance. 

Well, clearly some fell for it.  I didn't.

[old man]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

Yep pretty impressive hole. 

For completeness £11bn for infected blood and £1.5bn Horizon.

Pretty useless as the cretins responsible for these situations walked scot free?

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

Debt is debt.  Borrowing is borrowing.  You can't reduce debt by borrowing.

 

Well, clearly some fell for it.  I didn't.

 

Spot on.

The only way out is growth, and we will now see the opposite of growth.

This thread will stay here for a while for us to refer back to. There is zero chance of anything getting any better. There's some on here and in government who really don't understand how business works.

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Mungler said:

 

Spot on.

The only way out is growth, and we will now see the opposite of growth.

This thread will stay here for a while for us to refer back to. There is zero chance of anything getting any better. There's some on here and in government who really don't understand how business works.

Another one who didn't fall for it!

[Mice!]

2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

On that we are agreed

When you are spending more than you earn, the answer is not to borrow more and take money out of your business, it is to SPEND LESS

You cannot borrow your way out of debt; Labour try it every time - and it ends in tears - and this will be just the same in 5 or more years.

Well they clearly don't learn from previous mistakes. 

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Well they clearly don't learn from previous mistakes. 

Indeed - today's evening headline;

Welcome to Red Britain: Rachel Reeves hits UK with highest tax EVER and drops a 'tax bomb' on businesses while splurging on the public sector - as economists warn growth will suffer and borrowing costs soar

[Mungler]

5 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Indeed - today's evening headline;

Welcome to Red Britain: Rachel Reeves hits UK with highest tax EVER and drops a 'tax bomb' on businesses while splurging on the public sector - as economists warn growth will suffer and borrowing costs soar

We don’t need to hear from economists - anyone with half a brain knows this. 

I am genuinely aghast that no one in the cabinet has any actual real world business experience or run a business in the private sector - the lack of basic understanding is overwhelming; they have all spent their lives plucking tax payer money off the public sector money tree. 

There is zero incentive to invest or grow any business right now - we will go into recession and I don’t see any way to turn it around. 

 

[Mice!]

4 minutes ago, Mungler said:

they have all spent their lives plucking tax payer money off the public sector money tree. 

There is zero incentive to invest or grow any business right now - we will go into recession and I don’t see any way to turn it around. 

Well I'm guessing they found more magic trees?

and how does taxing employers more help.

but it's OK, the public sector will get nice pay rises. 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Mungler said:

There is zero incentive to invest or grow any business right now - we will go into recession and I don’t see any way to turn it around.

There is also now very little incentive to save in a pension plan.  They had been made more attractive as a useful part of inheritance tax planning for the modest saver with a house and family by being 'outside the estate'.  Now they are to be treated as part of the estate.  It may not seem much BUT, the private pension funds form a large part of industry's working capital and is a valuable source of loner term investment.

This is all so typical Labour, tax, borrow and spend, spend, spend with absolutely no proper plan to ensure that the spending is cost effective and produced returns.

They try it every time they are elected - and every time it leads to disaster.

Just now, Mice! said:

Well I'm guessing they found more magic trees?

and how does taxing employers more help.

but it's OK, the public sector will get nice pay rises. 

In simple terms, lets take money from the efficient private sector and peoples savings - and spray it liberally around the public sector (after all, they do fund our party through their union contributions)

[Mungler]

8 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Well I'm guessing they found more magic trees?

and how does taxing employers more help.

but it's OK, the public sector will get nice pay rises. 

 

8 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

There is also now very little incentive to save in a pension plan.  They had been made more attractive as a useful part of inheritance tax planning for the modest saver with a house and family by being 'outside the estate'.  Now they are to be treated as part of the estate.  It may not seem much BUT, the private pension funds form a large part of industry's working capital and is a valuable source of loner term investment.

This is all so typical Labour, tax, borrow and spend, spend, spend with absolutely no proper plan to ensure that the spending is cost effective and produced returns.

They try it every time they are elected - and every time it leads to disaster.

In simple terms, lets take money from the efficient private sector and peoples savings - and spray it liberally around the public sector (after all, they do fund our party through their union contributions)

Gents, you know it.

Quasi on telly just now nailed it - they won’t get the growth they’re banking on and in two or three years time they will need to come back for more tax. This is just the start. 

[JohnfromUK]

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

 

Gents, you know it.

Quasi on telly just now nailed it - they won’t get the growth they’re banking on and in two or three years time they will need to come back for more tax. This is just the start. 

Like Dennis Healey, they will be begging to the IMF in due course.

[oowee]

15 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Like Dennis Healey, they will be begging to the IMF in due course.

If they do and i doubt it, it will because despite their best efforts they could not change the trajectory of the economy etched over the last 14 years. 

You don't run a country like a business look at the States. It is possible to grow a country out of debt with investment. What we have is a plan, we just have to hope it works.

Edited October 30 by oowee