Thoughts on a Second Wave! Then a Second Lockdown.

[Raja Clavata]

Has what constitutes a second wave been properly defined - I don't believe it has?

I read an article today by the now infamous Prof Neil Ferguson stating that there would be no second lock-down, but given his track record I have no idea what to make of that.

What remains unclear to me is exactly how the government would go about locking down specific areas - even taking England in isolation we are "arranged" and governed very differently to Germany, I don't readily see how it would be realistic to do so here and, given recent public non-compliance, in any way enforceable.

[Lord v]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

Has what constitutes a second wave been properly defined - I don't believe it has?

I read an article today by the now infamous Prof Neil Ferguson stating that there would be no second lock-down, but given his track record I have no idea what to make of that.

What remains unclear to me is exactly how the government would go about locking down specific areas - even taking England in isolation we are "arranged" and governed very differently to Germany, I don't readily see how it would be realistic to do so here and, given recent public non-compliance, in any way enforceable.

From what I have read there isn't an official definition. 

'Localised outbreak' and '2nd wave' seem to be used interchangeably. 

A few nations including France have specifically excluded a national lockdown. 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Lord v said:

From what I have read there isn't an official definition. 

'Localised outbreak' and '2nd wave' seem to be used interchangeably. 

A few nations including France have specifically excluded a national lockdown. 

Thanks. I suspect we too have excluded it, just not publicly yet.

[Scully]

3 hours ago, oowee said:

Lack of action by Boris guaranteed higher levels of death than there needed to be. The Sturgeon has been showing the Kipper how to do it for the past few weeks. 

You don’t know that with any certainty at all; it’s mere opinion. We’re all qualified in hindsight. 

If we’d gone into lockdown earlier we’d possibly now be criticising him for destroying the economy. Other nations which locked down earlier are now experiencing spikes, so I’m not too sure anyone can claim we’ve ‘come out ‘ too early. 
Don’t forget that ‘lack of action’ you claim he’s responsible for almost cost him his life; I doubt he planned it like that. 

[Vince Green]

Flights still coming in from Pakistan

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11968577/coronavirus-cases-uk-pakistan/

People coming straight off the plane and into hospital. Some straight into intensive care. Obviously they should never have been allowed to travel in the first place. What about all the people that travelled with them on the planes?

Edited June 27, 2020 by Vince Green

[JohnfromUK]

We (our adjacent local area whose local paper I see) had our first case since May yesterday .........

[Raja Clavata]

2 hours ago, Vince Green said:

Flights still coming in from Pakistan

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11968577/coronavirus-cases-uk-pakistan/

People coming straight off the plane and into hospital. Some straight into intensive care. Obviously they should never have been allowed to travel in the first place. What about all the people that travelled with them on the planes?

When our domestic cases were rising I was quite vocal in suggesting quarantine wasn't worth the hassle at the time, it's imperative now though. If there is credit behind this story it's absolute bonkers as far as I'm concerned.

[Retsdon]

As their infections spiral upwards, US states that lifted lockdown before getting case numbers under control and a working tracing system up and running are now having to go back to the drawing board because they're finding out the hard way that the virus couldn't just be wished away. 

England will very likely follow the same path. 

 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Retsdon said:

England will very likely follow the same path. 

The lock down here hasn't been lifted (much) yet.  July 4th is the next stage in lifting.  The reason cases are on the rise here is simply that the lockdown isn't being followed - and when not voluntarily followed - is not enforced.

[Retsdon]

2 hours ago, Vince Green said:

What about all the people that travelled with them on the planes?

In theory you have to 'self-isolate' in one location for two weeks. But anybody staying there with you can come and go as they please unless you or they start to display symptoms. In practice I doubt that many people actually even comply with these minimal rules. 

It's the old story - it's not the policy, it's the appearance of a policy that's the important part. Britain has a 'quarantine' regulation. There, that's enough. That it's totally useless doesn't matter. 

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

That it's totally useless doesn't matter. 

Pre Covid the UK had approx 7 million air passenger arrivals a month.  Post Covid, currently about 112,000 a month.

How do you quarantine 3750 people a day? for 2 weeks, or say 50,000 people?

[Mice!]

19 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

We have now had two days in a row where the week - week death total has been 'up' on the previous week.

Friday last week 173 - Friday this week 186 - and 7 day 'rolling average' has now risen for 3 days in a row.  These are not big changes, but the figure needs to come down, not go up.

 

I agree that life has to go back to (a probably slightly different) 'normal', but people need to be sensible and stay within the new rules as they are relaxed.

Thing is John that number of people would likely be dying anyway,  a few hundred people dying won't keep people staying home, especially when they've been home for weeks and haven't been effected personally by the virus.

18 hours ago, oowee said:

Lack of action by Boris guaranteed higher levels of death than there needed to be. The Sturgeon has been showing the Kipper how to do it for the past few weeks. 

But Scotland has a tiny population when compared to England, were almost talking London has double Scotland's population but then spread out, plus who pays for things in Scotland.........

[Retsdon]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

How do you quarantine 3750 people a day? for 2 weeks, or say 50,000 people?

Ask Australia, or Thailand, or New Zealand, China, Korea, etc, etc, etc. Plenty of countries have effective quarantine regulations and its probably no coincide that they're the ones that have also got their internal transmissions down too. And they're mostly in Asia and around the Pacific Rim. 

But Britain isn't unique in not getting on top of its virus response and this pandemic has done, and is doing, enormous damage to the global prestige of western democracies. When many of these supposedly advanced countries are apparently incapable of implementing straightforward epidemiological methodology, why should anyone else on the planet regard them in any kind of leadership role? 

This virus will have political consequences too. 

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Ask Australia, or Thailand, or New Zealand, China, Korea, etc, etc, etc.

I don't know the current air passenger traffic levels, but assume in Australia and NZ it is low.  The others I have no idea, but the problem here is that there is no effective way of quarantining the passenger numbers currently travelling - let alone the increase as we lock down.  Whilst people may pay lip service to quarantine, lockdown, etc.  it is not being practised any longer (and that is largely pre lockdown lifting) - look at the various turnouts/street parties/beach visits going on.

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Whilst people may pay lip service to quarantine, lockdown, etc.  it is not being practised any longer (and that is largely pre lockdown lifting) - look at the various turnouts/street parties/beach visits going on.

Well, this is it, isn't it? The wheels have come off. 

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Well, this is it, isn't it? The wheels have come off. 

The UK has no credible way of enforcing the law if people want to break it.  Generations of 'snowflakes' have seen to that.

[Mice!]

29 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I don't know the current air passenger traffic levels, but assume in Australia and NZ it is low.  The others I have no idea, but the problem here is that there is no effective way of quarantining the passenger numbers currently travelling - let alone the increase as we lock down.  Whilst people may pay lip service to quarantine, lockdown, etc.  it is not being practised any longer (and that is largely pre lockdown lifting) - look at the various turnouts/street parties/beach visits going on.

Probably the only place to have done effective quarantine in the UK is the Isle of Man, because it can manage the situation, everywhere else is a free for all.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

Probably the only place to have done effective quarantine in the UK is the Isle of Man, because it can manage the situation, everywhere else is a free for all.

UK overall has no 'means' to apply any more than a voluntary quarantine, and no means of monitoring that.  We have a VERY liberal 'regime' in which a high percentage of the population have no respect for the police, the community, rules, or in many cases even self discipline - and we are now paying the price for that.

The levels of litter on the beaches, at Liverpool 'celebrations' by the Liver Building illustrate clearly what level of respect many people have for 'the community'.  None.  It is always 'someone else's problem'.

 

[Raja Clavata]

1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

The lock down here hasn't been lifted (much) yet.  July 4th is the next stage in lifting.  The reason cases are on the rise here is simply that the lockdown isn't being followed - and when not voluntarily followed - is not enforced.

Is that personal opinion or fact John? Surely the easy of any lockdown prior to R=0 is going to cause an increase in cases? 

Some people predicted that the consequence of what happened around DC would contribute to the public relaxing their adherence to the rules.

[Vince Green]

There was a girl on the radio a couple of days back who had just recently flown in from Jamaica and she said that chatting to other people on the flight most seemed completely unaware of any requirement to self  isolate once they got here. First they heard about it was when she told them.

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Vince Green

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, Raja Clavata said:

Is that personal opinion or fact John?

In truth, both.  Fact that cases (based on a couple of days only) are now on the rise; Fact that we have the big street parties, demos of past weekends, and a general 'breakdown' of lockdown, Fact that we had our first local case yesterday since May.

Personal opinion in that I see MUCH more traffic, people gathering and walking in groups, lots of complaints on local social media that there are 'gatherings' ........ and despair posted by local NHS staff at the flouting of the rules.

8 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Surely the easy of any lockdown prior to R=0 is going to cause an increase in cases?

It will - but IF the new rules are followed (and they are not even in place yet) then it should still remain below 1 (according to the experts).  But what I see on TV now is not 'no large gatherings' and 2m separation ...... or even 1m separation.  It is total disregard of rules - and if that happens - R will go above 1 quickly.  Can they enforce a new tightening of  'lockdown'?  My guess is not .......... but those who want to go on foreign holidays etc will be out of luck as the destination countries may say NO entry from UK.

4 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Some people predicted that the consequence of what happened around DC would contribute to the public relaxing their adherence to the rules.

I don't think DC is any more than an excuse.  There was far more coverage of risky rule breaking around the journalists hounding his house.  What he did was silly, but didn't put people at risk until it was blown out of all proportion by the gutter press.

[Vince Green]

What's Dominic Cummings got to do with anything, he's not a member of the Government?  And the police said he hasn't done anything wrong

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

In truth, both.  Fact that cases (based on a couple of days only) are now on the rise; Fact that we have the big street parties, demos of past weekends, and a general 'breakdown' of lockdown, Fact that we had our first local case yesterday since May.

Personal opinion in that I see MUCH more traffic, people gathering and walking in groups, lots of complaints on local social media that there are 'gatherings' ........ and despair posted by local NHS staff at the flouting of the rules.

You might well be right but I think it's premature to tie separate facts together and draw a cause and effect conclusion, time will tell though.

It will - but IF the new rules are followed (and they are not even in place yet) then it should still remain below 1 (according to the experts).  But what I see on TV now is not 'no large gatherings' and 2m separation ...... or even 1m separation.  It is total disregard of rules - and if that happens - R will go above 1 quickly.  Can they enforce a new tightening of  'lockdown'?  My guess is not .......... but those who want to go on foreign holidays etc will be out of luck as the destination countries may say NO entry from UK.

I don't consider the current restrictions to reflect "lock-down", the restrictions have been slowing getting lifted for some weeks now.

I don't think DC is any more than an excuse.  There was far more coverage of risky rule breaking around the journalists hounding his house.  What he did was silly, but didn't put people at risk until it was blown out of all proportion by the gutter press.

From what I've seen on social media and speaking to other people, the DC debacle gave an awful lot of people precisely the excuse they were looking for. Whilst I have not congregated or done anything radically outside the guidelines I did see it as encouragement more of my own version of common sense than I might otherwise of done.

I'd suggest there are lots of different factors with various (unknown) weightings, we should not just pick and choose the ones that suit our bias.

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

What's Dominic Cummings got to do with anything, he's not a member of the Government?  And the police said he hasn't done anything wrong

He is used as an excuse by all and sundry;  You are quite right in all you say above - but it was blown out of all proportion by the gutter press ....... and is now used as an excuse by all who think they need an excuse .....

In addition - Cummings (and Johnson), having had the virus - actually have nothing personally to gain by keeping lock down going - they are almost certainly immune - at least for a period.

[Scully]

1 hour ago, Retsdon said:

As their infections spiral upwards, US states that lifted lockdown before getting case numbers under control and a working tracing system up and running are now having to go back to the drawing board because they're finding out the hard way that the virus couldn't just be wished away. 

England will very likely follow the same path. 

 

England got the numbers down to a level where the NHS werent at risk of being swamped; no government can be held responsible for individuals who are too thick to abide by regulations or willingly flaunt them. 
Your posts at times appear to be a ‘wish’ list consisting of calamities you would like to see the UK undergo just to prove a point. 
If we have spikes or indeed a second wave then we’ll just have to get on with it.
Perhaps people will then realise why they should wash their hands and not cough and sneeze in other people’s faces.