Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.

[Rewulf]

14 hours ago, Mungler said:

It appears to have been an interesting couple of days.

Girkin laying it on heavy with criticism of Putin and military, elsewhere growing calls to impeach Putin and sections of the Russian military in mutiny.

Very interesting times. 

He might as well criticise him , I think he knows his time on this world is coming to an end.
Girkin, or Strelkov as hes better known, has always been a bit of an embarrassment since his part in the downing of MH17.
His latest refusal to adopt Kremlin policy in Donbass , lead to his removal as de facto administrator of the regions.

https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Igor_Strelkov_(officer)

The other theoretical aspect, is personality clash, Girkin fancies himself as an equal of Putin, whether hes up to the task of challenging Vlad is debateable , but it seems no chances are being taken.
The other aspect is using him as a sacrificial lamb in some kind of peace process, giving him up to international authorities would go some way to putting MH17 to bed.

The mutiny seems to have been overplayed somewhat , some units of DPR and LHK miltia had refused to continue fighting fellow Ukrainians that werent threatening their own provinces, quite understandable really.
But a mass rebellion by regular  Russian troops seems a little too much to hope for, although this would be an excellent solution to the conflict.
Real people power.

How can the Russian president be removed?

 

After indictment, the decision to remove a president from office is voted on by the Federation Council. The decision of the State Duma to indict and the decision of the Federation Council to remove the President from office must be accepted by two thirds of the respective chambers (300 and 114 votes respectively).

 

Now I find it a little hard to believe that if this really is a gangster regime, any dissent from members of both chambers, are going to be err, neutralised .
The overall image we have been given about Russian government , is that Putin is the  only person with any clout, would he even be bothered about impeachment, when he could just remove them in some weird inventive way , sharks or piranhas maybe ?
Again , its all a bit of a pipe dream, dreamt up no doubt in some Ukrainian ministry.

 

[Mungler]

Ukraine appears to have taken Kupiansk with barely a fight.

The front is collapsing. Next up is Izium. The Russian have reinforced it, but it's hard to see how it can be defended without Kupiansk.

Russian TV is gloomy but defiant. I don't see then rolling over. Putin will accept infinite losses, but will the population?

There's a problem here, for all of, including Putin. Putin accepts, even encourages, a rabid nationalist opposition, because it creates an illusion of democracy. Sensible voices are silenced.

If there is a mutiny against Putin, it will come from nationalist zealots. If they depose him, they will up the stakes. Also if they gain influence over him.

[oowee]

Very good progress and sound strategy splitting the Russian defenders in two. 

I suspect Putin will sue for peace job done before the uprising. He can simply settle back to the 2014 border having stuffed Ukraine for the foreseeable. 

[Mungler]

Borrowed from elsewhere, and yes, recent events could well be a turning point now.
 

Overnight UKR took Kupiansk. Izium must fall now [update, Russian military blogger says it just did, but now changed his mind it seems]. The salient is too broad for the Russians to close, so if this was ever intended as a trap it has backfired big time.

Now the Russians must react. I cannot see things continuing as they are. The Kharkiv front has collapsed. The Russians are trapped in Kherson, that will be lost in time. That leaves the bit of Donbas they already had, the bit of Donbas they just took, and Crimea.

All of these, even Crimea, look vulnerable. Once Kherson and Kharkiv are gone and the Russian forces there killed, captured or fractured, equipment destroyed or in UKR hands, UKR forces are simply more formidable than Russian ones.

Go figure - turns out they really really didn’t fancy being invaded or occupied.

What can RU do? It can throw the rest of its land forces in. But about 80% are there now. It can mobilise, but that produces a conscript army that, while it would have made conquering Donbas easy even a week ago, probably could not stand now.

It can sue for peace. I'm not sure the fired up UKR would offer reasonable terms. This was always a worry. I thought a return to 23/2 by a chastened Putin would be the best bet for stability long term. The concern was, as Macron said, Putin would be humiliated, and that's what's happening.

Putin has created an illusion of democracy by banging up anyone reasonable and setting up arguments with nationalist crazies. If Putin falls, the crazies get the gig. That's very concerning. They could easily start chucking nukes about. Something Putin could forestall by doing it himself of course.

A small ray of hope is that many of the crazies started out as quite sensible, but turned into the gonzo of the gonzos when they saw which way the wind was blowing. 

I don't think there is much hope of the rational taking charge. Russia simply doesn't work like that. But I said that in 1990, and for a short period I was wrong.

 

 

I’d be interested to hear from the usual suspects on what they make of this. There’s a couple who have been unusually quiet this week.

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, what ever ones views , 1000s of innocent men , women and children have been killed , millions displaced, cities, towns, factories, homes, destroyed, families who's lives will never be the same with the loss of a mum, dad, son, daughter, grand parents, it will take a generation for Ukraine to recover when peace finally reigns , but for all this I cannot understand why no country was prepared to help , 

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, what ever ones views , 1000s of innocent men , women and children have been killed , millions displaced, cities, towns, factories, homes, destroyed, families who's lives will never be the same with the loss of a mum, dad, son, daughter, grand parents, it will take a generation for Ukraine to recover when peace finally reigns , but for all this I cannot understand why no country was prepared to help , 

In fairness, despite the sentiments of a minority, the UK was head of the support pack and it’s that support which has enabled Ukraine to get where it is now - obviously the mainstream news is full of the Queens death, but the news coming out of Ukraine is that the Russian pack of cards has well and truly collapsed. I understand that the Ukrainian army now has possession of more tanks than the whole of the Russian army….. oh yes indeed you can tell how good it must be for Ukraine from the silence of some on here.

[henry d]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Putin has created an illusion of democracy by banging up anyone reasonable and setting up arguments with nationalist crazies. If Putin falls, the crazies get the gig

Although he is keeping tabs on the leadership of his rivals there is a groundswell of people willing to disrupt the upcoming minor elections. True it is peeing in the wind but hopefully its a turn in the right direction to distract him from drastic forms of action. 

I'm also hopefully anticipating another tragic and untimely death 

[Mungler]

24 minutes ago, henry d said:

Although he is keeping tabs on the leadership of his rivals there is a groundswell of people willing to disrupt the upcoming minor elections. True it is peeing in the wind but hopefully its a turn in the right direction to distract him from drastic forms of action. 

I'm also hopefully anticipating another tragic and untimely death 

The danger is that it’s all too humiliating for Putin and his supporters and he then reaches for the Nukes. I can’t see how NATO will let that one go unanswered or how nuclear escalation makes it any better for Russia for short, medium and long term. 

Indeed, it is total and utter humiliation for the Russians and all their brainwashed moron supporters. 

Well done to Ukraine, the courage shown by its people and to President Zelensky. 

[Rewulf]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Ukraine appears to have taken Kupiansk with barely a fight.

The first question you need to ask yourself is why that would be ?
While Kupiansk is not a large town (30k pop) the Russians were hardly surrounded Alamo style , they certainly could have bled the Ukrainians some, before withdrawing in good order.
The idea that morale is that low on the Russian side they fled their trenches in terror , while possible , could also be a feint.

The fact is, Ukraine has overstretched themselves , not only here , but in Kherson Oblast too, at Kupinansk they are in easy range of some Russian  artillery systems and airstrikes, which from what I can see, arent happening.
The blitzkrieg style advance Ukraine has done , looks very vulnerable, when you consider that the Russian border is 30 miles away.

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Overnight UKR took Kupiansk. Izium must fall now [update, Russian military blogger says it just did, but now changed his mind it seems]. The salient is too broad for the Russians to close, so if this was ever intended as a trap it has backfired big time.

If Ukraine push south from Kupiansk and approach Izyum, they will be further extended, and in a salient surrounded on 3 sides , they need to consolidate their lines , or that salient will be closed.
If that happens, well , lets just say the war will be shorter, and not in Ukraines favour.

 

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Now the Russians must react. I cannot see things continuing as they are. The Kharkiv front has collapsed. The Russians are trapped in Kherson, that will be lost in time. That leaves the bit of Donbas they already had, the bit of Donbas they just took, and Crimea.

This is a fallacy, which shows the author has no knowledge of tactics.
The Russians dont have to react, they need to defend, and cause more casualties than they receive, their strategy of prepared positions is solid in this context, and if they leave that position without a fight , there is obviously a good reason, and that would mean falling back to a stronger position where a more favourable level of casualties can be inflicted.
Ukraine is putting itself in the unenviable position of being where the Russians have been the last 5 months, overextended supply lines , and trying to attack over too large a front, with not enough men.

 

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

All of these, even Crimea, look vulnerable. Once Kherson and Kharkiv are gone and the Russian forces there killed, captured or fractured, equipment destroyed or in UKR hands, UKR forces are simply more formidable than Russian ones.

Again a huge fallacy , which shows the information the author is using , has come straight from the Ukrainian propaganda ministry .
The only authority that states these huge Russian losses, are the Ukrainians , NATO and UN estimates put the number of killed and wounded at rough parity between both sides.
Russia may have lost more armour, but thats mostly because Ukraine pretty much ran out of tanks APCs and aircraft within the first month.

 

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

What can RU do? It can throw the rest of its land forces in. But about 80% are there now. It can mobilise, but that produces a conscript army that, while it would have made conquering Donbas easy even a week ago, probably could not stand now.

This is the best bit , Russia has a standing professional army of close to a million men, is the author really saying Russia has 800,000 men in Ukraine ??
The war would be long over if it were.
And conscripts ? Russia has national service, with at least 2 million reservists , why and earth would they need conscription ?

 

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

I’d be interested to hear from the usual suspects on what they make of this. There’s a couple who have been unusually quiet this week.

You cant mean me then , I posted 24 hours ago .

 

6 minutes ago, Mungler said:

The danger is that it’s all too humiliating for Putin and his supporters and he then reaches for the Nukes. I can’t see how NATO will let that one go unanswered or how nuclear escalation makes it any better for Russia for short, medium and long term. 

Indeed, it is total and utter humiliation for the Russians and all their brainwashed moron supporters. 

Well done to Ukraine, the courage shown by its people and to President Zelensky. 

What would they do ?

Genuine question.

[Mungler]

11 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

The first question you need to ask yourself is why that would be ?
While Kupiansk is not a large town (30k pop) the Russians were hardly surrounded Alamo style , they certainly could have bled the Ukrainians some, before withdrawing in good order.
The idea that morale is that low on the Russian side they fled their trenches in terror , while possible , could also be a feint.

The fact is, Ukraine has overstretched themselves , not only here , but in Kherson Oblast too, at Kupinansk they are in easy range of some Russian  artillery systems and airstrikes, which from what I can see, arent happening.
The blitzkrieg style advance Ukraine has done , looks very vulnerable, when you consider that the Russian border is 30 miles away.

If Ukraine push south from Kupiansk and approach Izyum, they will be further extended, and in a salient surrounded on 3 sides , they need to consolidate their lines , or that salient will be closed.
If that happens, well , lets just say the war will be shorter, and not in Ukraines favour.

 

This is a fallacy, which shows the author has no knowledge of tactics.
The Russians dont have to react, they need to defend, and cause more casualties than they receive, their strategy of prepared positions is solid in this context, and if they leave that position without a fight , there is obviously a good reason, and that would mean falling back to a stronger position where a more favourable level of casualties can be inflicted.
Ukraine is putting itself in the unenviable position of being where the Russians have been the last 5 months, overextended supply lines , and trying to attack over too large a front, with not enough men.

 

Again a huge fallacy , which shows the information the author is using , has come straight from the Ukrainian propaganda ministry .
The only authority that states these huge Russian losses, are the Ukrainians , NATO and UN estimates put the number of killed and wounded at rough parity between both sides.
Russia may have lost more armour, but thats mostly because Ukraine pretty much ran out of tanks APCs and aircraft within the first month.

 

This is the best bit , Russia has a standing professional army of close to a million men, is the author really saying Russia has 800,000 men in Ukraine ??
The war would be long over if it were.
And conscripts ? Russia has national service, with at least 2 million reservists , why and earth would they need conscription ?

 

You cant mean me then , I posted 24 hours ago .

 

What would they do ?

Genuine question.

Yes this must be part of some Russian master plan - after all, their military can move so much quicker without all those tanks and all that equipment now in the hands of Ukraine.

Hey, let’s not argue. Let’s sit back and watch.

 

[Rewulf]

29 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Yes this must be part of some Russian master plan - after all, their military can move so much quicker without all those tanks and all that equipment now in the hands of Ukraine.

You only need to move when youre attacking, the defender always enjoys the advantage of this, where fixed , prepared positions require a much larger force to overcome.
Where Ukraine have enjoyed this advantage for some time , I seriously hope they have the numbers to pull this off.
I also hope they dont provoke Russia into using those battlefield type nukes, their doctrine only calls for it it they have to fall back and the motherland is threatened, but who knows ?

 

29 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Hey, let’s not argue. Let’s sit back and watch.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Rewulf
Forgot the dont bit!

[mchughcb]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

The danger is that it’s all too humiliating for Putin and his supporters and he then reaches for the Nukes. I can’t see how NATO will let that one go unanswered or how nuclear escalation makes it any better for Russia for short, medium and long term. 

Indeed, it is total and utter humiliation for the Russians and all their brainwashed moron supporters. 

Well done to Ukraine, the courage shown by its people and to President Zelensky. 

Not sure why he would reach for nukes. They were already using the FOAB bombs in Kherson and look how that turned out. And you may not know but when Khe Sahn was under attack Westmoreland was going to bring in nukes to stop them being over run. In the end they went for B52 bombers and were bombing within 500m of the base to stop the Vietcong trenching to the base.

[oowee]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

The idea that morale is that low on the Russian side they fled their trenches in terror , while possible , could also be a feint.

The Russians dont have to react, they need to defend, and cause more casualties than they receive, their strategy of prepared positions is solid in this context, and if they leave that position without a fight , there is obviously a good reason, and that would mean falling back to a stronger position where a more favourable level of casualties can be inflicted.
.

Whilst this could well be the case, certainly with a Western Army I would believe it. The Russian approach to using its armed forces is far less sophisticated. Sledge hammer and nut, bludgeon and batter, dont give an inch is far more likely than such a crafted strategy. 

[Rewulf]

41 minutes ago, oowee said:

Whilst this could well be the case, certainly with a Western Army I would believe it. The Russian approach to using its armed forces is far less sophisticated. Sledge hammer and nut, bludgeon and batter, dont give an inch is far more likely than such a crafted strategy. 

Theres a lot of misconception about Russian military doctrine, based on the idea of soviet doctrine , human wave attacks ect.
Modern armies place greater emphasis on troop survivability and support.
Having reliable weapons and body armour may be a more recent addition in Russia than western armies, but the combination of tried and tested soviet defensive ideology , coupled with western ideas on attack , have somewhat modernised Russian forces.
I say somewhat , because they still lack the hi tech efficiency that western armies use to neuter enemy defensive networks.
NATO/US doctrine is based on first establishing air superiority, something Russia tried, and largely failed to do in Ukraine.
Thats because Russia lacks the tech to deal with its own supplied SAM systems and radars, it could take the Ukrainian planes out , but Ukrainian BUK and S300 missiles are still taking out Russian planes and missiles.
Russia is not a very capable attacking force , its whole doctrine has been based on defence since the end of the WW2.
This is evident in that it never developed , or tried to copy , the US HARM missile, it never thought it would need such a thing.
That will likely change now.

 

[oowee]

6 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Theres a lot of misconception about Russian military doctrine, based on the idea of soviet doctrine , human wave attacks ect.
Modern armies place greater emphasis on troop survivability and support.
Having reliable weapons and body armour may be a more recent addition in Russia than western armies, but the combination of tried and tested soviet defensive ideology , coupled with western ideas on attack , have somewhat modernised Russian forces.
I say somewhat , because they still lack the hi tech efficiency that western armies use to neuter enemy defensive networks.
NATO/US doctrine is based on first establishing air superiority, something Russia tried, and largely failed to do in Ukraine.
Thats because Russia lacks the tech to deal with its own supplied SAM systems and radars, it could take the Ukrainian planes out , but Ukrainian BUK and S300 missiles are still taking out Russian planes and missiles.
Russia is not a very capable attacking force , its whole doctrine has been based on defence since the end of the WW2.
This is evident in that it never developed , or tried to copy , the US HARM missile, it never thought it would need such a thing.
That will likely change now.

 

I just don't see it. Co ordination between different forces looks to be very limited. Even infantry and tank Co operation is almost non existent. Logistics is at the heart of modern warfare and its missing with this army. There is some upfront equipment being but its not supported with integration and training. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by oowee

[Mungler]

There is no way any of recents events were planned or part of any Russian strategy. The response inside Russia tells us it’s a disaster but of course they have the resources and bodies to keep sending more.

The hope obviously is that at some point someone near the levers of power in Russia says ‘enough’. Indeed the costs, embarrassment and pointlessness of Putin’s folly ought to near crescendo. 

[ordnance]

As I said before Russia lost when plan A failed miserably, there is no win for Russia.

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, ordnance said:

As I said before Russia lost when plan A failed miserably, there is no win for Russia.

They're not the ones with their country in ruins though are they? 

If Ukraine 'win' they have a busted economy, decades of debt, and still have a hostile neighbour on their border. 

Sometimes losing is winning, and sometimes winning is losing. 

[Mungler]

12 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

They're not the ones with their country in ruins though are they? 

If Ukraine 'win' they have a busted economy, decades of debt, and still have a hostile neighbour on their border. 

Sometimes losing is winning, and sometimes winning is losing. 

The whole ‘should have just let them in’ thing doesn’t wash and is easy to say tucked up in a comfy bed a thousand miles away. Indeed they will know better than us the consequences of Russian rule and they made their choice as they were entitled to do. 

Reuters and others now reporting widespread Russian collapse in Ukraine. Funny,  no mention of a tactical withdrawal and tactically leaving all their kit behind.

Moscow has sealed off public places to stop rioting and theres silence from Putin & Co. But increased criticism of the regime - we’ll see if that goes anywhere or if it’s just more people that need to stay away from windows.

Incidentally, the ‘get flattened’ bit didn’t do Germany any harm and those Russian sanctions will drag on and on. This could well be the end of Russia as we know and the end of Putin, which makes this is a very dangerous time as all bets are now going to be off.
 

.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Mungler

[ordnance]

37 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

They're not the ones with their country in ruins though are they? 

If Ukraine 'win' they have a busted economy, decades of debt, and still have a hostile neighbour on their border. 

Sometimes losing is winning, and sometimes winning is losing. 

I didn't say anything about Ukraine wining, I said there is no win for Russia. 

 

[Mungler]

10 minutes ago, ordnance said:

I didn't say anything about Ukraine wining, I said there is no win for Russia. 

 

 

Indeed, and there lies the madness of all of this. 

[Rewulf]

59 minutes ago, Mungler said:

The whole ‘should have just let them in’ thing doesn’t wash

When has anyone said that? 

It would have been better if it hadn't happened at all, but here we are. 

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Reuters and others now reporting widespread Russian collapse in Ukraine. Funny,  no mention of a tactical withdrawal and tactically leaving all their kit behind

Well if Reuters says it's so, it must be. 

 

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Incidentally, the ‘get flattened’ bit didn’t do Germany any harm

Or Japan, which was exactly my point about losers sometimes being winners ect, but it went right over ordnances head. 

The fact is, and this IS the point, if Russia pulls out of Ukraine entirely, with its tail between its legs, the government collapses, and putin gets one in the dome, Russia will still be a nuclear armed, oil rich superstate. 

Ukraine will be a very proud nation, the boy who killed goliath, and Zelensky will be doing cover shoots every week, but it will still be a basket case economy in ruins, when it didn't have to be. 

[oowee]

7 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

When has anyone said that? 

It would have been better if it hadn't happened at all, but here we are. 

Well if Reuters says it's so, it must be. 

 

Or Japan, which was exactly my point about losers sometimes being winners ect, but it went right over ordnances head. 

The fact is, and this IS the point, if Russia pulls out of Ukraine entirely, with its tail between its legs, the government collapses, and putin gets one in the dome, Russia will still be a nuclear armed, oil rich superstate. 

Ukraine will be a very proud nation, the boy who killed goliath, and Zelensky will be doing cover shoots every week, but it will still be a basket case economy in ruins, when it didn't have to 

There is no alternative except roll over and fall under the Rusky boot. Better a self ruled basket case with a way out than a cowed country part of a lawless state.

[Mungler]

9 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

When has anyone said that? 

It would have been better if it hadn't happened at all, but here we are. 

Well if Reuters says it's so, it must be. 

 

Or Japan, which was exactly my point about losers sometimes being winners ect, but it went right over ordnances head. 

The fact is, and this IS the point, if Russia pulls out of Ukraine entirely, with its tail between its legs, the government collapses, and putin gets one in the dome, Russia will still be a nuclear armed, oil rich superstate. 

Ukraine will be a very proud nation, the boy who killed goliath, and Zelensky will be doing cover shoots every week, but it will still be a basket case economy in ruins, when it didn't have to be. 

‘When it didn’t have to be’

Not really. The choice was binary either let Russia role in and take over day 1, or fight. 

Russia had all the choices, including the choice not to invade and the choice to withdraw.

I’d guess that if Ukraine make it through this there will be deals and NATO support / stationing going forward - if only to ensure that Russia doesn’t regroup and do this all over again.

As for the super oil nuclear power that is Russia, that would be the same Russia with the economic output of Italy.

And yes, where we are now, all the matters is what comes next after Putin…

[Rewulf]

7 minutes ago, oowee said:

There is no alternative except roll over and fall under the Rusky boot. Better a self ruled basket case with a way out than a cowed country part of a lawless state.

It was doing OK since 91 when it gained independence, then someone decided it needed more western style 'democracy'. 

Things wnt rapidly downhill from there...