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China and Taiwan. It’s when not if now


Mungler
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It will be interesting to see if US policy on Taiwan shifts as the TSMC fabs in the US come online as a result of the 2022 chips and science act.

Silicon sovereignty has been a key issue globally for several years now. 

I believe the Chinese are at 7nm, developing 5nm whereas TSMC and Samsung are currently at 3nm, developing 2nm with research programs at 1nm. China want/need that tech. 

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12 hours ago, Genghis said:

China are forecast to surpass even the United States economically sometimes between 2030-2035. This will be the first time since the 1890’s that America have been knocked off the top spot.

 

From the Chinese government perspective, why start a war when they already have the infrastructure to achieve dominance economically? Unlike the west, they don’t have ludicrous policies like net zero holding back their growth either.


Agreed.

China also doesn’t suffer from usual politicking - there’s no left then right swings in government, it’s the CCP all the way and they can make a 20 or 30 year plan and stick to it.

If I were China I’d carry on with buying up favour and resource across the developing world and watch the West eat itself; laziness, fast food, net zero, wokeism, TikTok and of course all the synthetic drugs I’m quietly making and shipping over. 

I still don’t understand how the combustion based European car industry got so quickly torpedoed for EV and effectively handed over to the Chinese who had the 20 year head start on EV (and EV supply chains).

 

IMG_9368.jpeg

Edited by Mungler
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5 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

It will be interesting to see if US policy on Taiwan shifts as the TSMC fabs in the US come online as a result of the 2022 chips and science act.

Silicon sovereignty has been a key issue globally for several years now. 

I believe the Chinese are at 7nm, developing 5nm whereas TSMC and Samsung are currently at 3nm, developing 2nm with research programs at 1nm. China want/need that tech. 

Hello, On my very last  job i worked for a Company making Silicon Ingots about 2 ft x 2 ft x 15 inches , Raw Silicon was imported in and this was placed in China Moulds then put in very high Temperature Kilns ,( Not the Pottery Type ) This was for the Chip industry so sent to Sharp in Japan to manufacture Silicon chips as we know today, This Company went on the Stock market and made Millions of £s for the 6 Directors and very little for the Staff, China then decided to up their Production at what ever cost in their  Prices so this UK Companies Market dropped like a Stone, Wiped Millions of £s off Shares and it all but finished although Sharp are still part of the Company

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2 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, On my very last  job i worked for a Company making Silicon Ingots about 2 ft x 2 ft x 15 inches , Raw Silicon was imported in and this was placed in China Moulds then put in very high Temperature Kilns ,( Not the Pottery Type ) This was for the Chip industry so sent to Sharp in Japan to manufacture Silicon chips as we know today, This Company went on the Stock market and made Millions of £s for the 6 Directors and very little for the Staff, China then decided to up their Production at what ever cost in their  Prices so this UK Companies Market dropped like a Stone, Wiped Millions of £s off Shares and it all but finished although Sharp are still part of the Company


Fair point.

If the Chinese government (or indeed any committed government) says ‘we’re doing this and we’re going in this particular direction come what may and whatever the cost’ then it gets done pretty much regardless of any possible dissent or moral / economic objections to the contrary. 

Getting into the silicon supply chain at any cost and to the extent of destabilising the global silicon manufacturing market place? That’s a plan with some power behind it. 

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27 minutes ago, Mungler said:


Fair point.

If the Chinese government (or indeed any committed government) says ‘we’re doing this and we’re going in this particular direction come what may and whatever the cost’ then it gets done pretty much regardless of any possible dissent or moral / economic objections to the contrary. 

Getting into the silicon supply chain at any cost and to the extent of destabilising the global silicon manufacturing market place? That’s a plan with some power behind it. 

Hello, It was for this Company, The Price for these Ingots dropped beyond its value as China flooded the Market with their Silicon, The Shares tumbled and Investors lost Millions of £s , To be honest i was glad to leave when i did around 60 so i could look after my Mother but that was through a Work Accident, The 6 Directors became very rich and the 20 or so workers were given £1000 after 10/15/20 years working,!!!!!! < Getting back to the original Subject i think China like to show off its Armed Forces and the Power it represents but i do not think it would invade Taiwan, but many had the same thoughts on Russia and Ukraine !!!!!!

Edited by oldypigeonpopper
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Helicopter borne assault from deep water is an exceptionally risky business in today`s ISR and missile environment, even at low altitude. Whether you think you have local Air superiority or not, you stand a bloody good chance of losing yr Assault teams, aircrew and helicoptor and possibly yr "Copter carrier" in one go. Are these Hospital ships? 

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On 14/01/2025 at 05:15, Mungler said:

An attempt on a well defended island that is intent on not becoming part of China does appear to me to be ‘not worth it

 

Taiwan is part of China and always has been. Taiwan is where the rump of the previous government retreated to when the Communists took over the mainland.

Taiwan is officially the Republic of China, they even still have invasion plans for the mainland to reclaim the People's Republic of China back from the ex-Communists.

Both see themselves as the rightful rulers of China (both Taiwan and the mainland), and both see themselves as Chinese.

Best idea would be to let them sort it out between themselves, but noooooo,  West (mainly USA) can't help by meddling and arming Taiwan to the teeth,and where instead of a peaceful rejoining or perhaps a relatively bloodless one in event of Taiwan invasion, instead they are setting up for Ukraine 2.0.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Cosmicblue said:

The regular Chinese people I have encountered see Taiwan as part of China - in the same way has the UK has Wales...thinks it is independent but probably isn't🤣 

Perhaps we can talk the Chinese into taking Wales as well😂😂

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1 minute ago, johnphilip said:

And what about Norfolk 

😀😀

No, some nice people live over there and some who can cook too. :good:

We could go for Scotland though, could you eat takeaways and rice for the rest of your life?

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1 minute ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

No, some nice people live over there and some who can cook too. :good:

We could go for Scotland though, could you eat takeaways and rice for the rest of your life?

Our part of Scotland  was once  part of Northumberland . Actually I am further south  than Newcastle . I have  been watching a program on tv  Guy Martin in China  called " a Guy in China "  it's quite an impressive country , things they have built. But also brutal in parts . A bit like  the Roman invasion of Britain. They to were far ahead and brought things  here , but at the same time brutal . The  vast Roman  empire eventually fell ,as does everything eventually. 

Plus rice is a pudding 😀

And I come from  " The land of the Prince Bishops " 🤴 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, johnphilip said:

Our part of Scotland  was once  part of Northumberland . Actually I am further south  than Newcastle . I have  been watching a program on tv  Guy Martin in China  called " a Guy in China "  it's quite an impressive country , things they have built. But also brutal in parts . A bit like  the Roman invasion of Britain. They to were far ahead and brought things  here , but at the same time brutal . The  vast Roman  empire eventually fell ,as does everything eventually. 

Plus rice is a pudding 😀

And I come from  " The land of the Prince Bishops " 🤴 

So you're saying Scotland without wee eck needs China?

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18 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

So you're saying Scotland without wee eck needs China?

We might aswell be like. The rest of the UK,  the Way its going. Under. This labour party . The Snp are  an absolute  disgrace  they. Are. Now. Wanting. To ban birthday. Cakes . 

Edited by johnphilip
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