Rochester and Strood by election

[FalconFN]

YouGov are hardly a credible source for anything.

They aren't bad, the problem is that they are online only so that does exclude certain segments of society, but other than that I think they poll quite large numbers so pretty reliable.

 

I'll be interested to see the turnout in may, I expect it will be the largest percentage for some years.

Edited November 21, 2014 by FalconFN

[TriBsa]

They aren't bad, the problem is that they are online only so that does exclude certain segments of society, but other than that I think they poll quite large numbers so pretty reliable.

 

I'll be interested to see the turnout in may, I expect it will be the largest percentage for some years.

 

True, but I'd question their impartiality with Peter Kellner at the helm. Ditto the Ashcroft polls. Most Poll's are commissioned by a vested interest to demonstrate a particular point. There's definetely scope for influencing results as to how questions are phrased. UKIP support is underplayed as the recent Survation (?) Poll showed when UKIP were included in the which of these parties do you intend to vote for question rather than being down as "other". That was worth 5% points. I'd guess there's only won true poll (or the nearest we'll get to one) with 100% sample size and that's the General Election.

Edited November 21, 2014 by TriBsa

[The Croc]

I am fairly outspoken in not being a UKIP supporter, but I think that the outcome of yesterdays by-election was a good result.

 

It very clearly sends a message to the big two parties that the electorate is fed up with what we have now, as did the Scottish referendum, and it also makes the message very clear that rehashing old policies time and again or paying lip service to public concern is not going to work.

 

I would love to see another by-election in a Labour stronghold prior to the main event, especially in the north of England, that would be a good barometer of the voting intention of the traditional 'working class' voter.

 

The main thing that I think this result will help to achieve is to fire up the consciousness of the English voter, despite the vocal support around UKIP there is still a very large element of the electorate that do not support them. Having watched the election of 2 MP's it may well come as a reality shock that the kippers are very much capable of winning seats and cause people to question what else they stand for.

 

I will be very interested to see what happens in Wales as well regarding voting intention.

 

For those thinking about backing the kippers it should make them ask questions on their other policies and scratch below the surface of the one dimensional immigration/anti EU argument.

 

For those that are fearful of the kippers winning a larger share of the vote it may shake off some of the apathy surrounding politics in this country too.

 

One of the successes, if it can be called that, of the Scottish referendum was the level of public engagement during the campaign, especially in the last few months. If the apparent UKIP surge can help achieve the same in England and Wales that can only be good.

 

As an aside, the recent YouGov poll of the typical demographics of those that enjoy shooting it is little surprise that UKIP are so robustly supported on this forum. C2DE social grade and clear right wing bias, a perfect match for UKIP's image really.

 

If you have not seen the profile you can here https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Shooting/demographics

An excellent post :-) Edited November 21, 2014 by The Croc

[shaun4860]

I would love to see another by-election in a Labour stronghold prior to the main event, especially in the north of England, that would be a good barometer of the voting intention of the traditional 'working class' voter.

]

I live in a Labour stronghold :(

 

If there were to be a by election here it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference,

 

They could put a donkey up round here (and roughly speaking they do) it would get elected,

 

Why?

 

"My grandad and dad voted Labour so I have to, oh and Maggie shut the pits"

 

It's pitiful,

 

It's slowly changing as more "incomers" arrive and the posh bit (where markm lives) don't like Labour, but in my lifetime it won't change

 

[grrclark]

Shaun, it is almost exactly the same in the bit of Fife where I stay, ex mining, ex heavy industry and dyed in the wool labour, well at least it was.

 

After all the campaign around the referendum Labour have lost a huge amount of support in Scotland. For many of the same reasons as UKIP have found favour being an anti-establishment party the SNP did the same and it is an incredible change.

 

That is why I wondered if UKIP do really have the same 'working man' appeal throughout England. The theory is that it should be the tories that are losing votes to UKIP, but given that there is a real ground level resentment towards the established parties have the kippers captured the imagination enough for people to genuinely believe they can make a real difference?

 

As for the YouGov link I posted, I am not saying it's right or wrong, just that the social demographic for shooters, taken from that poll, seems to be the perfect kipper territory.

 

The £1000 of free income/month surprised me too given it is a C2DE social grade, not what you would normally expect to see. I thought the age would be a bit higher too, but that maybe reflects the online nature of the YouGov market.

Edited November 21, 2014 by grrclark

[grrclark]

 

True, but I'd question their impartiality with Peter Kellner at the helm. Ditto the Ashcroft polls. Most Poll's are commissioned by a vested interest to demonstrate a particular point. There's definetely scope for influencing results as to how questions are phrased. UKIP support is underplayed as the recent Survation (?) Poll showed when UKIP were included in the which of these parties do you intend to vote for question rather than being down as "other". That was worth 5% points. I'd guess there's only won true poll (or the nearest we'll get to one) with 100% sample size and that's the General Election.

 

I don't know if the YouGov profile for shooting was as a result of a specific poll, or if it is based on a cross section of contributors to YouGov who have indicated shooting as an interest. It seems fairly generic to be an actual poll.

[Penelope]

In each of the last three By Elections, Labour have lost a significant share of their vote, one in a heartland area where they only just won. The results would suggest that 'working man' Labour voters are turning to UKIP, and it's not just deserting Conservative voters that are providing the impetus behind UKIP.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30148768

 

Shaun, it is almost exactly the same in the bit of Fife where I stay, ex mining, ex heavy industry and dyed in the wool labour, well at least it was.

 

After all the campaign around the referendum Labour have lost a huge amount of support in Scotland. For many of the same reasons as UKIP have found favour being an anti-establishment party the SNP did the same and it is an incredible change.

 

That is why I wondered if UKIP do really have the same 'working man' appeal throughout England. The theory is that it should be the tories that are losing votes to UKIP, but given that there is a real ground level resentment towards the established parties have the kippers captured the imagination enough for people to genuinely believe they can make a real difference?

 

As for the YouGov link I posted, I am not saying it's right or wrong, just that the social demographic for shooters, taken from that poll, seems to be the perfect kipper territory.

 

The £1000 of free income/month surprised me too given it is a C2DE social grade, not what you would normally expect to see. I thought the age would be a bit higher too, but that maybe reflects the online nature of the YouGov market.

Edited November 21, 2014 by Penelope

[timmytree]

 

As a truly national party I would think yes. They'll have a few hotspots perhaps where they are strong but I would think that all there MP's will fit in a family saloon after next May.

You could get them in the ashtray if you cremated the useless *******.

[overandunder2012]

its said ukip wont do well in the cities will be interesting to see how they fare there.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

The results make interesting reading.

 

Rochester and Strood by-election Nov 2014

 

Mark Reckless (UKIP) 16867 (42.10%)

Kelly Tolhurst (Con) 13947 (34.81%)

Naushabah Khan (Lab) 6713 (16.76%)

Clve Gregory (Green) 1692 (4.22%)

Geoff Juby (Lib Dem) 349 (0.87%)

 

The Conservative vote was down 9657 from 2010

The Labour vote was down 6938 from 2010

 

The other parties were down.

[grrclark]

In each of the last three By Elections, Labour have lost a significant share of their vote, one in a heartland area where they only just won. The results would suggest that 'working man' Labour voters are turning to UKIP, and it's not just deserting Conservative voters that are providing the impetus behind UKIP.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30148768

 

 

I remember the last by election in Heywood and Middleton was a close call, but if I recall there was a fairly chunky reduction in the total turnout too, so the number could be spun all sorts of ways. It could be argued that the tories lost their share of the vote to UKIP and the reduced labour majority was due to the poor turnout.

 

I do believe without any doubt that the kippers are gaining Labour votes too, I just don't know to what scale yet, but I guess nobody knows that yet really.

 

One of the really interesting things from the rise of UKIP is that the traditional values associated with voters who supported left and right do appear as though they are being re-written. That is maybe a subject for a different discussion thread.

 

Whatever might be said about Nige if he can get lifelong Labour voters putting an X in the box for an ex Tory MP then he has achieved something that the current Tory party would bite their own arm off to do.

 

Interesting times indeed.

[kdubya]

its said ukip wont do well in the cities will be interesting to see how they fare there.

it was also said they would never have a single MP !

 

I voted labour time after time till the last election when after being sickened by the to me (and yes I am allowed an opinion) deliberate tactic of destroying my heritage and trying to make me feel guilty of actually having the temerity to be born English I said enough is enough, and I voted con and yes conned I was, by the "we are all in it together" lying scumbags, so I am now trying something different and believe me so will an awful lot more disillusioned ex labour supporters who last time could not bring them selves to vote for tory boy and his mates but they WILL vote UKIP they may not win them all but they will win some and they will hopefully bring down this PC diverse garbage we are now force fed at every and any opportunity

 

The Labour strongholds (I live in one) are going to disappear, it may not be next year but it will happen, and then you never know we may be out of Europe and have gates that actually close.

 

KW

[Gordon R]

Totally agree.

[TriBsa]

Totally agree.

 

+1 Good post KW

[maxie]

I live in a Conservative stronghold and we have had two council leaders imprisoned for fraud,the local police chief sacked and convicted for covering up the local M.P`s drink driving arrest,and countless other scandals in the last thirty years.Yet despite this you could put up a pot plant in a blue rosette and it would romp home every election.It makes me wonder if the electorate just likes being ****** on.

[grrclark]

KW, from a number of threads, and in some of which we have clashed heads, I very much see your motivation in voting as one of backing the ordinary working man and of course there is obviously a strong element of patriotism thrown in there too. You often make fairly strong socialist arguments, at face value, but are also very critical of people that you see as 'lefties', but on balance I would say that you are very much a social democrat.

 

What was the main reason that you lost favour in Labour and voted Tory? What was it that you felt most let down by Tory to subsequently move your vote to UKIP?

 

I hope you don't mind me asking and I hope that you do answer. I'm not trolling or looking to challenge your opinion in any way, I am genuinely interested.

[timmytree]

It appears that UKIP have taken votes from all the established parties, I wonder what the outcome would if those percentages were applied across the country as a whole?

I hate the blind following of one party by many voters, that just encourages parties to spend far too much time on smear campaigns and dirty tricks instead of working together to try and solve the problems in this country. MP's should be voted in for their personal beliefs and work ethic, not because they wear the same shirt as the bloke your granddad voted for.

As for UKIP and the future? Well Cameron has already shown his arrogance towards voters by restating his belief that votes for UKIP will let Labour in and he doesn't intend to let that happen. What he means is that if you voted UKIP your vote doesn't count as far as he's concerned because you aren't capable of making up your own mind.

That attitude, for me anyway, means that I won't vote UKIP as a protest, I'll vote UKIP because I want to, my intention is to make sure that arrogant Cameron doesn't get in, if the result of that means that labour have a chance to regain a few seats then so be it. I don't want Milliband either so I hope enough people have enough guts and courage to follow this through. The Cons and Labour need to be shown that their arrogance, lies and complacency have really wound up a large proportion of voters. They need to be shown that they are supposed to be OUR representatives, not our masters.

I haven't mentioned the LIB Dems for whatever may happen in the future because they are dead, hopefully soon to be buried and gone forever. Gutless fence sitters.

[Gordon R]

grrclark - I am in the same boat as kdubya. Labour opened the floodgates and the Tories have done nothing about immigration.

 

UKIP will not win the next election, but may force the others to act. Some see unlimited immigration as fine. I think they are clueless as to what is really happening, but I suspect they have another view. Good luck to them.

[kdubya]

grrclark

 

Blair and then the anointment of that buffoon Brown with their hidden (to most) lets change the electoral balance by using mass immigration policies as a tool, along with the shenanigans of my local labour council and their ever so diverse and leaning further and further to the left sickened me against labour, so I thought I would give the cons a chance and felt that cameron came over quite well,and I believed the cons would look after our borders, security, and armed forces, better than labour (how wrong I was) but sadly I found that I had simply voted for a used car salesman rather than a man true to his word, his false promise of we will have a referendum on Europe and his blind support for those who steal billions if not trillions whilst at the same time blaming our unemployed and youth of today (god forbid mention the word benefit) for the ills of the world exacerbated my feeling of betrayal by the man,.

 

Time for change, time to take a leap of faith and time to out of europe and their left wing human rights **** and to get rid of those who now have us afraid to open our mouths in fear of being jailed for something we say, rather than something we do

 

KW

Edited November 21, 2014 by kdubya

[Dick]

It appears that UKIP have taken votes from all the established parties, I wonder what the outcome would if those percentages were applied across the country as a whole?

I hate the blind following of one party by many voters, that just encourages parties to spend far too much time on smear campaigns and dirty tricks instead of working together to try and solve the problems in this country. MP's should be voted in for their personal beliefs and work ethic, not because they wear the same shirt as the bloke your granddad voted for.

As for UKIP and the future? Well Cameron has already shown his arrogance towards voters by restating his belief that votes for UKIP will let Labour in and he doesn't intend to let that happen. What he means is that if you voted UKIP your vote doesn't count as far as he's concerned because you aren't capable of making up your own mind.

That attitude, for me anyway, means that I won't vote UKIP as a protest, I'll vote UKIP because I want to, my intention is to make sure that arrogant Cameron doesn't get in, if the result of that means that labour have a chance to regain a few seats then so be it. I don't want Milliband either so I hope enough people have enough guts and courage to follow this through. The Cons and Labour need to be shown that their arrogance, lies and complacency have really wound up a large proportion of voters. They need to be shown that they are supposed to be OUR representatives, not our masters.

 

 

Well said.

I haven't mentioned the LIB Dems for whatever may happen in the future because they are dead, hopefully soon to be buried and gone forever. Gutless fence sitters.

[overandunder2012]

this indeed true.

it was also said they would never have a single MP !

 

 

[grrclark]

Thanks Gordon. I for one am very happy that UKIP are changing the nature of the discussion around UK politics, I do think that there was a reluctance to talk about issues such as immigration for fear of being labeled. To my mind the discussion needs to be had and we should not shy away from it.

 

The last lengthy thread we had I know I got on my soap box a bit and banged on about the economics of the country, I do see that as the driving force behind what any party in power can achieve and I do think that we need to go through a lot of cultural change before any real progress can be made, until then I think we will flip flop between parties based on popularity of message more than anything.

 

Without a shadow of doubt though immigration in this country does need to be addressed.

 

Thanks KW, I think that Cameron has shot himself in the foot many times and has not been a strong enough leader, I think having achieved some form of party unity after the disasters that were IDS and Michael Howard that he didn't have stomach enough for the fight he should have had, he maybe had too much to lose for his own political ambitions.

 

I actually expect that if he does get a second term he will have learned his lesson, but whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

 

In any respect the traditional parties are being asked some pretty searching and difficult questions just now, which is great, but that does mean that the electorate will be asked to put up or shut up too. I suspect fence sitting in the middle ground is going to disappear very soon.

[maxie]

If you believe that`s in the U.K`s interest to remain in the EU then you are going to have to put up with EU immigration,there is no way around it.

[Gordon R]

I always thought that Maggie Thatcher had a slate loose, but she was a stronger leader than any of the present lightweights.

 

I can't imagine that she would have said that nothing could be done.

[88b]

I was wide awake about 3am and watched the coverage on Sky news as I'd realised earlier the BBC weren't going to cover it if UKIP had a chance. Seems only around 52% of the electorate voted but then so many are disillusioned by politicians now and who could blame them. I doubt any party is going to get enough votes in May, I'm wondering how an SNP UKIP coalition will work.