Vince Green Posted August 29, 2018 Report Share Posted August 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Jaymo said: I think the way it was presented gave the impression that the money would go to the NHS Interpretation is everything in life. It wasn't even an official bus belonging to the leave campaign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 29, 2018 Report Share Posted August 29, 2018 37 minutes ago, Rewulf said: but if we had to pay billions in divorce money, we probably wouldn't save anything, for years. This: Our government seem to have 'potentially' (if there is a 'deal') agreed to pay £39 billion for which we get .......... somewhere between nothing and very little. I accept we will have to make a few payments to cover costs of things incurred in our membership (mainly pensions, which like those of our own civil service are not 'funded', but paid out of 'current account' income), but we should only be paying a smallish proportion of the pensions and it should come to nothing like £39 billion. I did see one costed estimate that our total liability should be somewhere around £12 - 15 billion but others have speculated on 'up to £100 billion'. Since the EU has no audited accounts, who can know what the real figure should be since they themselves don't seem to know what their future liabilities are. They don't seem to be recorded anywhere. Mrs May says if there is no deal on trade, then the payment is 'off the table'. However as always lawyers support both sides of whether this is legal or not. You can see the cave in coming a mile off ......... Since if we are taken to court, the relevant court is in The Hague ........ you can see whose side they will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted August 29, 2018 Report Share Posted August 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Rewulf said: Of course it is. But then, some people might see 'IT COULD BE YOU !' (National Lottery) on the side of a bus , and think that meant they were going to win the lottery that weekend ? At the end of the day, there could be some spare money floating about in a few years for the NHS , I believe pledges have been made toward that. Or it might get spent on the homeless, or get chucked into the military budget, or there might be NO savings and no money spare. It would take a rare and special person who was able to predict the future budget responsibilities of the UK accurately. We could end up with the EU collapsing because of Brexit and other internal issues not of our causing, this could indeed trigger a European recession, in which case, we would need to tighten our belts. The fact is, any projection is just that, a projection with the information we have NOW. When the referendum was still undecided, there was no mention of divorce payments, how would that affect future NHS budgets ? Its all very well saying we would 'save' £350 mil a week, but if we had to pay billions in divorce money, we probably wouldnt save anything, for years. So the 'promise' wasnt a promise at all, but just what it insinuated , a suggestion. £350mlm/week is £18bn/year. So even if our ‘divorce’ payment is £36bn that only two years. Which is nothing in the overall scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 29, 2018 Report Share Posted August 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, AVB said: £350mlm/week is £18bn/year. So even if our ‘divorce’ payment is £36bn that only two years. Which is nothing in the overall scheme of things. Sorry, no. £10 bn of that was CAP anyway, our annual net is about 8 bn a year, thats assuming, and Ive no reason to doubt it, the farmers will continue to get subsidised. So , if we do pay the £39 bn, thats about 5 years worth of payments continuing, so technically, no spare cash. Dont get me wrong, I dont think we should pay anything like that, just enough to cover existing projects to completion, and a pension lump sum. But if we do, and some form of CAP continues, we are no better off financially for a while (technically) but me personally, Im OK with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 Once we leave the EU will be financially like a table with three legs. The effect on the EU will be felt in ways we haven't even considered. The Spanish fishing fleet for example, all their big trawlers fish virtually exclusively in British waters. The Dutch take huge amounts of herrings from British waters. What are they all going to do? It is estimated that the European fisheries policy costs this country £6 Billion a year, that's the value of the fish we lose, and that's only if you believe the foreign trawlers stick to their quotas - and of course they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Vince Green said: The Spanish fishing fleet for example, all their big trawlers fish virtually exclusively in British waters. The Dutch take huge amounts of herrings from British waters. What are they all going to do? Probably continue - we have wound down our Navy to the extent we probably can't do much about it. An aircraft carrier about the size of the Isle of Wight isn't of much use (though it makes politicians feel important) and costs so much money they can't afford either any more useful sized ships, or a full compliment of aircraft for the carrier - and needs about half the Navy personnel (excluding Admirals) to operate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 The October Brexit deal deadline has now moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said: The October Brexit deal deadline has now moved. I think this was alluded to last week. The news today that Barnier is promising a 'deal like no other' has given the £ a slight lift, hot on the heels of the news that he didnt seem very interested in speaking to Raab very much lately, leads me to suspect its more carrot on a stick work from the EU. Be prepared now for down to the wire 'talks' that will sensationally collapse due to British 'intransigence' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Rewulf said: Be prepared now for down to the wire 'talks' that will sensationally collapse due to British 'intransigence' Down to the wire talks were always inevitable; negotiators who finish early are out of a job, so it is in their interest to take it to the wire. Whether they collapse or not - I wouldn't like to call it, but I suspect their nerve is stronger than ours, so I have a bad feeling ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 Just now, Rewulf said: I think this was alluded to last week. The news today that Barnier is promising a 'deal like no other' has given the £ a slight lift, hot on the heels of the news that he didnt seem very interested in speaking to Raab very much lately, leads me to suspect its more carrot on a stick work from the EU. Be prepared now for down to the wire 'talks' that will sensationally collapse due to British 'intransigence' I hope they do, while I'd like to see a sensible trade deal with the EU, that will never happen and the only way to get a clean split as a EU member and giving us the abbility to secure decent trade with the rest of the world is a hard brexit, any "deal" with the EU will be in their favour and not ours, I've lost pacience with May and I don't trust her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinfireman Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 Why should we pay a divorce bill? Why haven,t the EU,s assetts been taken into consideration? All the EU infrastructure that we have paid towards? Like the fancy buildings in Brussels etc....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said: I hope they do, while I'd like to see a sensible trade deal with the EU, that will never happen and the only way to get a clean split as a EU member and giving us the abbility to secure decent trade with the rest of the world is a hard brexit, any "deal" with the EU will be in their favour and not ours, I've lost pacience with May and I don't trust her. Agreed. Plus hopefully ,we wont have to pay their ridiculous divorce bill, bribery and extortion comes to mind with that. 7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: Down to the wire talks were always inevitable; negotiators who finish early are out of a job, so it is in their interest to take it to the wire. Whether they collapse or not - I wouldn't like to call it, but I suspect their nerve is stronger than ours, so I have a bad feeling ......... I think we are just going through the motions for appearances sake. I believe a no deal is inevitable, the EU cannot risk anything else. Nerve only works if you have a hand, I think our hand is better personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rewulf said: Plus hopefully ,we wont have to pay their ridiculous divorce bill, bribery and extortion comes to mind with that. Some hope; see http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6111967/Dominic-Raab-admits-taxpayers-pay-39bn-EU-divorce-bill-no-deal.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: Some hope; see http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6111967/Dominic-Raab-admits-taxpayers-pay-39bn-EU-divorce-bill-no-deal.html As I said earlier, and what Raab alludes to in the link , 'some' money is owed. Even if its just pensions, its likely to be a fairly substantial sum, but not £39 bn ! I believe the UK should also continue to pay for projects started, this works both ways, there are projects still receiving EU cash in the UK. Has anyone seen a likely estimate of our EU pensions liability ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Rewulf said: Has anyone seen a likely estimate of our EU pensions liability ? I did look for one, but kept coming up with the fact that there seemed to be no reliable records of future liabilities available ........ which given their accounts shambles seemed a credible position. I have heard it suggested (I think) about 12-15 billion, but not now sure if that was pounds or euros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: I did look for one, but kept coming up with the fact that there seemed to be no reliable records of future liabilities available ........ which given their accounts shambles seemed a credible position. I have heard it suggested (I think) about 12-15 billion, but not now sure if that was pounds or euros. So basically they can pluck a figure out the air if they so choose ? Dont you just love the way Brussels works ? If we just had to account for our own EU employees, we could just handle the pensions ourselves and leave it out the divorce payment. But you know for a fact we are paying for a whole lot more than that,. Try and get a figure on how many people the EU employs, it makes you wonder if they know themselves ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 59 minutes ago, Rewulf said: So basically they can pluck a figure out the air if they so choose ? Dont you just love the way Brussels works ? If we just had to account for our own EU employees, we could just handle the pensions ourselves and leave it out the divorce payment. But you know for a fact we are paying for a whole lot more than that,. Try and get a figure on how many people the EU employs, it makes you wonder if they know themselves ! Spot on, I say unless they can give us an accurate bill, we don't pay them a penny, deal or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 55 minutes ago, Rewulf said: So basically they can pluck a figure out the air if they so choose ? As far as I can make out the whole 'divorce settlement' figure was pretty much plucked from the air. 56 minutes ago, Rewulf said: it makes you wonder if they know themselves ! The EU has never been able to produce figures to allow auditors to go over the 'accounts' so (slightly incredible as it may seem) I think it quite likely that they don't know. They belong to a totalitarianism type of mentality where they decide what they want to do, set about doing it, and pay for it as and when 'bills come in' without any real understanding of the actual 'costs to completion'. As Mrs Thatcher said "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." It works along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 2 hours ago, JohnfromUK said: As Mrs Thatcher said "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." It works along those lines. Love it ! Never heard that one before ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, Rewulf said: Love it ! Never heard that one before ? How about this one? "The EU is trying to P down our back and tell us it's raining"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said: How about this one? "The EU is trying to P down our back and tell us it's raining"! ? Sounds about right ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 Well that was quick! https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1010646/Brexit-news-Michel-Barnier-EU-UK-offer-no-deal-preparation-latest ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnfromUK Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 Seems to me he is doing it deliberately to de-stabilse the pound and 'feed Project Fear'. All business gets a bit jittery when currencies fluctuate rapidly; it increases either financial risk by possibly loosing margin, or if you build in an allowance to buffer your margins, you push up prices and risk loosing sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said: Seems to me he is doing it deliberately to de-stabilse the pound and 'feed Project Fear'. All business gets a bit jittery when currencies fluctuate rapidly; it increases either financial risk by possibly loosing margin, or if you build in an allowance to buffer your margins, you push up prices and risk loosing sales. You've got it. Breeding discontent at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger-Mouse Posted August 31, 2018 Report Share Posted August 31, 2018 On 30/08/2018 at 12:25, JohnfromUK said: As Mrs Thatcher said "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." Great quote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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