Retsdon Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, grrclark said: we have been part of the EU and markets across the trade spectrum are maturely developed between the UK and EU. Correct. But when we leave our share of that EU market across the spectrum will face competition from businesses in EU countries expecting to use their EU membership as leverage to increase their own market share. So why would EU governments agree to ratify a trade deal that disadvantaged their own business communities? What Brussels might want and what discrete countries would be prepared to ratify are almost certainly two different things. Look at how hard it's been to get CETA and TTIP endorsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, Retsdon said: Correct. But when we leave our share of that EU market across the spectrum will face competition from businesses in EU countries expecting to use their EU membership as leverage to increase their own market share. So why would EU governments agree to ratify a trade deal that disadvantaged their own business communities? What Brussels might want and what discrete countries would be prepared to ratify are almost certainly two different things. Look at how hard it's been to get CETA and TTIP endorsed. We can expect the EU in all trade negotiations to rightly use its purchasing power leverage to maximum effect, in any trade deal. That weight was clearly evident in the TTIP negotiation and is leverage that the UK alone will not have in its forthcoming bargain with the US. Worse still will be the political pressure on any post Brexit government to get a deal at any cost, or at the very least some cost, rather than putting the protection of UK plc at the heart of a negotiation, that otherwise might be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retsdon Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, oowee said: We can expect the EU in all trade negotiations to rightly use its purchasing power leverage to maximum effect, in any trade deal. That weight was clearly evident in the TTIP negotiation and is leverage that the UK alone will not have in its forthcoming bargain with the US. Worse still will be the political pressure on any post Brexit government to get a deal at any cost, or at the very least some cost, rather than putting the protection of UK plc at the heart of a negotiation, that otherwise might be the case. The UK isn't going to need leverage when it becomes the world's biggest unregulated free-trade zone. Britain unchained!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Retsdon said: The UK isn't going to need leverage when it becomes the world's biggest unregulated free-trade zone. Britain unchained!! Deal's 'R' us. Bogof sale every day of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, oowee said: Whilst its true we are not starting from the same point the difficulty will be the point that we are starting from. The very favorable and virtually seamless seamless trading arrangement that we have now will in itself be a hurdle to negotiate. We have to accept a diminution of our trading arrangement even if that is simply one of delay and paperwork over the situation we have now. What you and Retsdon seem to completely ignore (deliberately) is the simple fact that, it is as much in the interests of the EU nations as of ours, to come to a MUTUALLY beneficial trading arrangement as soon as possible. You both talk as if the EU hierarchy hold sway over any and all deals that Europe may or may not do, this is a fallacy. Do you seriously believe that a WTO deal will benefit the German car industry or French wine merchants? You talk as if tariffs on these goods will hurt US. It won't, because if they are too expensive, we won't buy them. You are also buying into the weird labour mantra that because Canadas deal took 7 years, ours will too. Or our US deal will take at least as long, why? Every month spent without a FTA will cost European businesses as much as it cost us, and that's without bringing the trade deficit into the equation. Europe's businesses will have to bring pressure to bear, once the idea of Brexit being revoked becomes an impossibility, and the EU is forced, by its member nations to accept the new reality. It's not as complex as you make it out to be. 52 minutes ago, Retsdon said: Correct. But when we leave our share of that EU market across the spectrum will face competition from businesses in EU countries expecting to use their EU membership as leverage to increase their own market share. So why would EU governments agree to ratify a trade deal that disadvantaged their own business communities? What Brussels might want and what discrete countries would be prepared to ratify are almost certainly two different things. Look at how hard it's been to get CETA and TTIP endorsed. Don't be daft! The EU has been stacking the cards against us in this fashion for the last 20 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retsdon Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rewulf said: Do you seriously believe that a WTO deal What WTO? https://www.politico.eu/article/the-end-of-world-trade-as-we-know-it/ It's looking increasingly likely that the WTO as it's now constituted is going to either die or be reconstituted as something else. 9 minutes ago, Rewulf said: Do you seriously believe that a WTO deal will benefit the German car industry or French wine merchants? You talk as if tariffs on these goods will hurt US. It won't, because if they are too expensive, we won't buy them. Do you seriously believe that it's politically possible for a British government to significantly hike the price of multiple goods and products just to spite the EU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, Rewulf said: What you and Retsdon seem to completely ignore (deliberately) is the simple fact that, it is as much in the interests of the EU nations as of ours, to come to a MUTUALLY beneficial trading arrangement as soon as possible. You both talk as if the EU hierarchy hold sway over any and all deals that Europe may or may not do, this is a fallacy. Do you seriously believe that a WTO deal will benefit the German car industry or French wine merchants? You talk as if tariffs on these goods will hurt US. It won't, because if they are too expensive, we won't buy them. You are also buying into the weird labour mantra that because Canadas deal took 7 years, ours will too. Or our US deal will take at least as long, why? Every month spent without a FTA will cost European businesses as much as it cost us, and that's without bringing the trade deficit into the equation. Europe's businesses will have to bring pressure to bear, once the idea of Brexit being revoked becomes an impossibility, and the EU is forced, by its member nations to accept the new reality. It's not as complex as you make it out to be. Don't be daft! The EU has been stacking the cards against us in this fashion for the last 20 years! That would be similar to the EU / Us trade levels where they have yet to do a deal. What you seem to completely ignore (deliberately) is the EU is a collective. Do you seriously believe that the EU will give us a better deal out than in????? Our US deal will not take long with the tories at the helm, every day is a sale day. Every month without a FTA will cost the UK so much more. EU nations pushed out by the UK presence in the EU market will be rubbing their hands as they step in against our tariff levied goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retsdon Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 'seriously believe' seems to 'l'expression du jour'.:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Retsdon said: 'seriously believe' seems to 'l'expression du jour'.:) French will be banned post Brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 @oowee thought you might like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, Mice! said: @oowee thought you might like this. 57 new council homes is still shed loads more than the affordable homes that the Tories did not build over the last five years or so. Either way I would not put them in charge of shed building, let alone housing. Its a pity that house building is not a cross party objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Well a 2 minute google shows your wrong on that, I'm not saying their doing great, but it's more than 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, oowee said: That would be similar to the EU / Us trade levels where they have yet to do a deal. What you seem to completely ignore (deliberately) is the EU is a collective. Do you seriously believe that the EU will give us a better deal out than in???? Literally, no one has said that. 39 minutes ago, oowee said: Our US deal will not take long with the tories at the helm, every day is a sale day. Every month without a FTA will cost the UK so much more. EU nations pushed out by the UK presence in the EU market will be rubbing their hands as they step in against our tariff levied goods And there you go again, the EU will not suffer one jot at all... Probably 😂 18 minutes ago, oowee said: French will be banned post Brexit. I do believe nobody has said that either, but whatever you say. 14 minutes ago, oowee said: Its a pity that house building is not a cross party objective. Get Labour in, all that tax money they are going to take off the billionaires, will have millions of houses built in no time, or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Mice! said: Well a 2 minute google shows your wrong on that, I'm not saying their doing great, but it's more than 57. Affordable homes. 0 is a lot less than 57. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50296672 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, oowee said: Affordable homes. 0 is a lot less than 57. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50296672 How many did Labour build during the Blair /brown years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 But the spending watchdog said the sites were all now being used for housing more generally, only some of which was affordable. quick look, some of which was affordable, means not 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Mice! said: But the spending watchdog said the sites were all now being used for housing more generally, only some of which was affordable. quick look, some of which was affordable, means not 0 Not me saying zero its the watchdog. 11 minutes ago, Rewulf said: Literally, no one has said that. And there you go again, the EU will not suffer one jot at all... Probably 😂 I do believe nobody has said that either, but whatever you say. Get Labour in, all that tax money they are going to take off the billionaires, will have millions of houses built in no time, or something... What you also fail to realise is the threat to UK manufacture, under the existing EU rules of origin limits that they have negotiated around the world. Any UK product in EU exports will count against EU content. This will include the BMW engines plant at Hams Hall. “Hams Hall doesn’t build any South Africa products any more, which is of course bad for the UK because that specific engine is not being built here, is not providing labour any more,” said Oliver Zipse, BMW’s production chief, speaking at the launch of the new electric Mini in Oxford. Decisions on reallocating production from the UK can be taken “very quickly”, and in some situations “you will lose work in this country”, added Zipse. He is tipped by some to take over as BMW chief executive following Harald Krüger’s decision last week not to apply to extend his term in the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Clavata Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 15 hours ago, Rewulf said: Didn't realise you knew EVERYONE in business 😹 Unable to answer my question? I stated everyone I know not EVERYONE 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, Raja Clavata said: Unable to answer my question? I stated everyone I know not EVERYONE 🙄 By your insinuation that everyone 'you knew' I took it to mean that you thought my statement was false? I will state quite clearly that I do not know everyone in business, those that I do, a good majority are not concerned about Brexit. Is that a good enough answer? 6 minutes ago, oowee said: What you also fail to realise is the threat to UK manufacture, under the existing EU rules of origin limits that they have negotiated around the world. Any UK product in EU exports will count against EU content. This will include the BMW engines plant at Hams Hall What you conveniently leave out, is the existential threat to UK manufacturers from the EU, right now, and in a remain future, not to mention the past. These are real things that happened, not imagined things that might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Rewulf said: What you conveniently leave out, is the existential threat to UK manufacturers from the EU, right now, and in a remain future, not to mention the past. These are real things that happened, not imagined things that might happen. What would that be? It is happening right now for Hams Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, oowee said: What would that be? It is happening right now for Hams Hall. I would have thought it obvious, a German CEO threatening to shut a British factory, if we go ahead with Brexit, just before an election. Who would have thought it eh? Tell me something, how does this help BMWs brand in the UK before or after Brexit? How does it assist any possible tariffs, that may be payable on BMW products coming in from outside the UK in the future? Moving part or the whole of a factory costs money, training of new staff costs money, loss of production, costs money, redundancies, cost money. Are BMW really going to ship out, just to apy pressure, I doubt it very much. But if they do, good riddance. Other car brands are available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, Rewulf said: What you conveniently leave out, is the existential threat to UK manufacturers from the EU, right now, and in a remain future, not to mention the past. What would that be? 4 minutes ago, Rewulf said: I would have thought it obvious, a German CEO threatening to shut a British factory, if we go ahead with Brexit, just before an election. Who would have thought it eh? Tell me something, how does this help BMWs brand in the UK before or after Brexit? How does it assist any possible tariffs, that may be payable on BMW products coming in from outside the UK in the future? Moving part or the whole of a factory costs money, training of new staff costs money, loss of production, costs money, redundancies, cost money. Are BMW really going to ship out, just to apy pressure, I doubt it very much. But if they do, good riddance. Other car brands are available. It's not a matter of doing it to apply pressure. UK (third country) content will be toxic in an EU export. UK has an easy in easy out flexible labour rules unlike Germany. It costs money but its cheaper to do it here. What other car brands would they be? Japanese Land Rover We will still buy cars just pay more for them unless we continue with the Boris plan not to charge tariff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Last time I checked there were dozens and dozens of different cars on the road, of course BMW will favour production in Germany why wouldn't they. As I've said I worked at a company making parts for Airbus, we were "threatened " that Brexit could mean taking those jobs out of the UK, it wont happen, if the jobs could be done cheaper abroad they already would be, never mind the skill level needed or procedures involved in the aerospace sector. I'm sure BMW aren't going to move production lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rewulf Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 43 minutes ago, oowee said: UK (third country) content will be toxic in an EU export I suppose our markets and consumer base will be toxic also then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Clavata Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Rewulf said: By your insinuation that everyone 'you knew' I took it to mean that you thought my statement was false? I will state quite clearly that I do not know everyone in business, those that I do, a good majority are not concerned about Brexit. Is that a good enough answer? No, not really, you mentioned business. I asked which businesses and stated a fact around the industries (which I assume you'd agree relate to a collection of businesses) I am involved in. What are the businesses you refer to? BTW - I meant to post this point last week but Mini IS the next one on the list! 31 minutes ago, Mice! said: I'm sure BMW aren't going to move production lightly. It's going to Holland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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