The North and Covid spikes.

[AVB]

Any views on why the North East and North West are seeing these spikes in cases? 
 

I don’t know theses areas so personally have no idea but interests in others views. 

[Mice!]

A lot of it will be because there is more testing being done,  some of it because of multiple generations living in single houses, some of it students going to uni/school and some of it people going back to work,  the strange thing is Leicester was locked down on hitting 140 per 100,000 I think, and quite a few areas are above 200 now.

All of Lancashire was put on local lockdown except Blackpool and two weeks later Blackpool is following suit, it seems government want places to return to work but at the same time stop the spread?

We went into Chorley at the weekend,  very quiet and a lot of people wearing masks whilst walking between shops.

[WalkedUp]

Density, mass of population and poverty. Very simple. 

[Yellow Bear]

2 hours ago, Mice! said:

A lot of it will be because there is more testing being done,  some of it because of multiple generations living in single houses, some of it students going to uni/school and some of it people going back to work,  the strange thing is Leicester was locked down on hitting 140 per 100,000 I think, and quite a few areas are above 200 now.

Whilst I agree mostly with this, friends in these area have said the real hotspots were the areas of multigenerational occupancy until the students returned when the areas with Halls and flats joined (parts of the south side of central Manchester fall into both of these categories).  The rest, sadly remains, the "ripple effect from these areas due to commuting.

[AVB]

4 hours ago, Mice! said:

A lot of it will be because there is more testing being done,  some of it because of multiple generations living in single houses, some of it students going to uni/school and some of it people going back to work,  the strange thing is Leicester was locked down on hitting 140 per 100,000 I think, and quite a few areas are above 200 now.

All of Lancashire was put on local lockdown except Blackpool and two weeks later Blackpool is following suit, it seems government want places to return to work but at the same time stop the spread?

We went into Chorley at the weekend,  very quiet and a lot of people wearing masks whilst walking between shops.

I get that but how is that different to so many other places especially London? 

 

2 hours ago, WalkedUp said:

Density, mass of population and poverty. Very simple. 

How does poverty have an impact? Poor people unable to follow guidelines? And again why different to London. 

[Yellow Bear]

2 hours ago, AVB said:

I get that but how is that different to so many other places especially London

Size, type, and cost of houses.

[blackbird]

14 hours ago, AVB said:

Any views on why the North East and North West are seeing these spikes in cases? 
 

I don’t know theses areas so personally have no idea but interests in others views. 

With 15 + living under one roof what do you expect.

[AVB]

40 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Size, type, and cost of houses.

Do you think that all houses in London are mansions? And what has the cost of a house got to do with it? 
 

I thought things were good up North with people moaning about how bad things were down south but reading some of the things on here it sounds pretty grim ‘up North’ 

😅

Also just read that the North East is the region with the highest percentage of white people in the U.K. (source 2018 census) so I don’t think the ‘foreigners’ can be blamed this time! 

Edited October 1, 2020 by AVB

[grrclark]

It's a really interesting question.  There is obviously some difference in socio-cultural approach, maybe they're friendlier up north and interact more, maybe the south is so expensive that nobody can afford to go out and so live in their own bubble more often, maybe they are just a bit more anti-establishment and deciding not to follow any rules.

I can't imagine there will be one single reason for it, but a factor of many things.

It's a little like the central west of Scotland having the highest prevelance, in that case there is also a greater population densisty so the numbers should be higher, but per-capita the ratio of infection is hgher too.  It is all very puzzling.

[AVB]

13 minutes ago, grrclark said:

It's a really interesting question.  There is obviously some difference in socio-cultural approach, maybe they're friendlier up north and interact more, maybe the south is so expensive that nobody can afford to go out and so live in their own bubble more often, maybe they are just a bit more anti-establishment and deciding not to follow any rules.

I can't imagine there will be one single reason for it, but a factor of many things.

It's a little like the central west of Scotland having the highest prevelance, in that case there is also a greater population densisty so the numbers should be higher, but per-capita the ratio of infection is hgher too.  It is all very puzzling.

Coincidentally this was the subject of the Jeremy Vine show on R2 today. There were a number of reasons that were mentioned at various times:
 

poverty - without explaining why though

lack of adherence to rules

friendliness

Government agenda!!

I genuinely don’t know and hence why I asked for others views. 
 

 

[Deker]

17 hours ago, AVB said:

Any views on why the North East and North West are seeing these spikes in cases? 
 

I don’t know theses areas so personally have no idea but interests in others views. 

No idea to be honest, I live in Hartlepool (which is going into lockdown) and travel a lot to South West London so I spend my time between both places and I see more larger gatherings in London (bars, restaurants, coffee shops etc), so I can only guess it's work place related.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Deker

[Mice!]

The biggest thing will be the fact they are testing more, a lot of areas that are spiking are areas with dense housing, low income areas.

Couple of lads in work tested positive a few weeks ago, we're tested every week,  thousands of tests a week being done and that was the first positive tests, most lads are going about without a care like its 2019 like I'm sure most are.

Apart from that and and a couple of other cases I haven't heard of anyone being affected thankfully 

[Yellow Bear]

2 hours ago, AVB said:

Do you think that all houses in London are mansions? And what has the cost of a house got to do with it?

I have lived and worked in both.  There are a hell of a lot more medium sized Terraced properties in parts of the North and these are still relatively cheap, £70k for 2/3 bed and £100k for 3/4 bed, you cant buy a garage for that in most of London.  It is not unusual for certain socio economic groups to buy several adjoining properties and effectively (and illegally) make them into 1 with internal doors.  I am aware that one friend in Preston was effectively forced out when one extended family bought 3 directly adjacent on one side and 2 on the other (this was 10 years + ago).  It means that large multigenerational family groups are the norm not the exception.  Add to this the outward ripple effect and you have some of the answer. 

[Demonic69]

Last Monday our little boy had a cough and a bit of a temp so we booked him in for a test. Had to go down to Leicester, 1.5 hours away, as all other test centres were booked up. The test was negative.

Today our little girl gets a cough, managed to find a test in Rotherham, all of 20 mins away. Apparently they're opening more test centres and pushing more tests out. Maybe it is just an increase in testing?

[AVB]

24 minutes ago, Deker said:

No idea to be honest, I live in Hartlepool (which is going into lockdown) and travel a lot to South West London so I spend my time between both places and I see more larger gatherings in London (bars, restaurants, coffee shops etc), so I can only guess it's work place related.

That was mentioned on the radio. More people in a London can work from home than those ‘up north’. I suppose that’s because electricity and computers haven’t reached there yet. 😅

A doctor said it could be because much of London was infected during wave 1 and therefore have immunity, whereas the north  was less impacted. So the North is really seeing a delayed first wave rather than a second wave. 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Demonic69 said:

Last Monday our little boy had a cough and a bit of a temp so we booked him in for a test. Had to go down to Leicester, 1.5 hours away, as all other test centres were booked up. The test was negative.

Today our little girl gets a cough, managed to find a test in Rotherham, all of 20 mins away. Apparently they're opening more test centres and pushing more tests out. Maybe it is just an increase in testing?

This is the other thing, lots of people and kids are getting bits of colds, think covid and go for a test, there are test centres now in Preston,  Blackburn one coming in Leyland although South Ribble has remained low, its rising now slightly but probably down to more testing. I'm sure other areas up here also have testing available. 

1 hour ago, AVB said:

That was mentioned on the radio. More people in a London can work from home than those ‘up north’. I suppose that’s because electricity and computers haven’t reached there yet. 😅

A doctor said it could be because much of London was infected during wave 1 and therefore have immunity, whereas the north  was less impacted. So the North is really seeing a delayed first wave rather than a second wave. 

Probably true, more jobs up north doing work not sat at a computer,  there are still loads of office based staff working from home where I am. 

[Demonic69]

9 minutes ago, Mice! said:

This is the other thing, lots of people and kids are getting bits of colds, think covid and go for a test

We don't think it's Covid at all, just have to get a test or isolate for 2 weeks. Schools are sending kids home with a sniffle and won't allow them back without a negative test. Some workplaces are the same

[Mice!]

9 minutes ago, Demonic69 said:

We don't think it's Covid at all, just have to get a test or isolate for 2 weeks. Schools are sending kids home with a sniffle and won't allow them back without a negative test. Some workplaces are the same

Fair enough,  different areas different rules, I've not heard of schools in my area doing that, plenty of kids with colds, my misses got one and did nothing,  woman she works with got the same cold and went straight for a test.

Just watching Northwest news,  Liverpool is being clamped down on, while pubs in Bolton can reopen?

Figures for Lancashire, different rules in different places its chaos. 

It's now law that people in Liverpool/ Merseyside that they can't mix in pubs public spaces homes etc how this is supposed to be marshalled when the pubs kick everyone out at ten PM I have no idea

[WalkedUp]

5 hours ago, AVB said:

Coincidentally this was the subject of the Jeremy Vine show on R2 today. There were a number of reasons that were mentioned at various times:
 

poverty - without explaining why though

lack of adherence to rules

friendliness

Government agenda!!

I genuinely don’t know and hence why I asked for others views. 
 

 

If you are poor your job is less likely to be something you can do from home. You are not financially able to take time off to shield / isolate etc. Businesses and councils have fewer resources to put in prevention measures 

In the poorer areas there is also a huge distrust of the government and its commitment to its own CV19 rules. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by WalkedUp

[treetree]

Its just a case of more testing showing asymptomatic people as cases.

I know someone in Leicester, and during the Leicester 'spike' they had people in mobile testing vans stopping him and encouraging him to have a test, as well as them going door to door.

[Vince Green]

In the most simple analysis, if everybody stuck 100% to the rules all the time there would be no spikes

[Yellow Bear]

On 01/10/2020 at 20:31, treetree said:

Its just a case of more testing showing asymptomatic people as cases.

They may be asymptomatic but they are still spreading the virus by infecting others.

[Vince Green]

A lot of lock down measures are just plain nieve. Pubs close at 10, just encourages people to leave the pub and carry on the evening back at somebodys house. Probably illegally.

Even though the restaurants have closed you can still order a pizza to be delivered at two in the morning in bigger towns and cities, so its just encouraging illegal gatherings rather than preventing them 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Vince Green

[Vince Green]

On 01/10/2020 at 16:06, Demonic69 said:

Last Monday our little boy had a cough and a bit of a temp so we booked him in for a test. Had to go down to Leicester, 1.5 hours away, as all other test centres were booked up. The test was negative.

Today our little girl gets a cough, managed to find a test in Rotherham, all of 20 mins away. Apparently they're opening more test centres and pushing more tests out. Maybe it is just an increase in testing?

My step grandson was coughing at school, his mother was phoned to come and collect him. By the time she got there he wasn't coughing and didn't cough anymore when he got home but the school wouldn't let him back until he had been tested. The schools are ultra careful, understandably. 

On 01/10/2020 at 15:28, AVB said:

Coincidentally this was the subject of the Jeremy Vine show on R2 today. There were a number of reasons that were mentioned at various times:
 

poverty - without explaining why though

lack of adherence to rules

friendliness

Government agenda!!

I genuinely don’t know and hence why I asked for others views. 
 

 

I go strongly with lack of adherence

[Mice!]

I'm watching the ITV  news on plus one, 

Well its sounding like the hospitality industry is closing next week in the North west,  given how high the rates have been for the last few weeks I don't know why it's not been done already, I'm guessing because of the financial impact. 

I also caught something about Scotland closing pubs or only serving alcohol outside? From what I remember living in Scotland they'd probably rather take their chances in the pub.