How much is it really...

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

If 700k is correct the small boat arrivals look almost insignificant.

I doubt very much the small boat numbers are even counted in with that figure.
On the basis that they are more in a state of limbo, whilst asylum claims are being considered, the vast majority will be staying however, and at some point will be counted in before they are granted citizenship.

 

6 minutes ago, oowee said:

It looks to me that a large number of that figure might be EU consolidations from the last 20 years or so?

Declaring that they are actually here yes, because they have to now we are no longer an EU free movement country.

 

8 minutes ago, oowee said:

UK economy upto now has relied upon population growth to run. If the population is in decline and we don't have migration then we have to try something different.

Following Brexit the UK has faced a severe labour shortage.

In what areas ?
I understand there is a dearth of Deliveroo riders, car washers, Uber drivers and drug dealers 😆 But I dont think these people will be paying that much into the tax pot anytime soon.
There are also reported to be 3 million unemployed, maybe do something with them before we open the gates to further immigration increases ?

 

15 minutes ago, oowee said:

With Luck the current government will be able to make different arrangements with the EU. Academic standard alignment (in the plan) would be a very useful starting point that could give us more access for doctors and dentists.

Doctors and dentists can come here perfectly legally already.
The problem is , the current government thinks that every single person who migrates to the UK is of value to the economy, and they would be very wrong.
Their only value is to future labour votes, like the last time a labour government was in.

[Gordon R]

Rewulf - it would be silly to argue with what you say, but some will try. Nothing quite like a head buried in the sand to obscure vision. 🙂

[oowee]

2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I doubt very much the small boat numbers are even counted in with that figure.
On the basis that they are more in a state of limbo, whilst asylum claims are being considered, the vast majority will be staying however, and at some point will be counted in before they are granted citizenship.

 

Declaring that they are actually here yes, because they have to now we are no longer an EU free movement country.

 

In what areas ?
I understand there is a dearth of Deliveroo riders, car washers, Uber drivers and drug dealers 😆 But I dont think these people will be paying that much into the tax pot anytime soon.
There are also reported to be 3 million unemployed, maybe do something with them before we open the gates to further immigration increases ?

 

Doctors and dentists can come here perfectly legally already.
The problem is , the current government thinks that every single person who migrates to the UK is of value to the economy, and they would be very wrong.
Their only value is to future labour votes, like the last time a labour government was in.

So if as we suspect it includes EU migrants many of which will be long established the figure of 700k looks very low. 

Your right we should be training unfortunately it was not in the Tory plan. 

As a result we are short of labour in pretty much every trade every profession. Here is a list drawn up by the Tories.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-eligible-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-eligible-occupations-and-codes

I think the difference now is the current govt is trying to do something, on training, on skills, on migration, rather than just bleat. Trouble is they have to fix prisons, doctors pay, railways, water companies, sewage, planning, energy, housing, education, health (and anything else left untouched for the last 14 years) at the same time as bank account is empty and the credit card has been declined. 

[12gauge82]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

You claimed a number as fact, I challenged and your reply was to counter with a different number.

In your obsession to ridicule I believe you may have overlooked a key point that I’ve been trying to highlight all along. Illegal immigration is amplified to distract from other things going on, an example is given in the daily mail article relating to legal migration. Now these newcomers may be contributing to our GDP but by definition, enhanced by legitimacy being here, they are eroding our values far more per head than illegals who tend to stay under the radar.

Gdp is actually a very good marker to look at. The UKs Gdp has risen, but that's obviously because there are now millions more people here, Gdp per capita has fallen, which shows people are getting poorer and have been for many decades, coupled with our failing public services that are buckling under the strain of all these extra people and it's not hard to work out uncontrolled migration has been a substantial factor. 

[Raja Clavata]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Of course they do, if they are illegal they wont have been counted !

So if theyre under the radar, again, how can they be counted ?

We are in agreement. On the illegals, I don’t know but apparently Gordon knows it’s 6M, he stated it as fact previously. You know populist fact that’s just fact, period, end of 👍

3 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

I don't think we need to look too deep to find those figures absolutely shocking and it doesn't take a genius to realise the impact those numbers are going to have on the UK and it's infrastructure. 

Agreed.

[Rewulf]

12 minutes ago, oowee said:

So if as we suspect it includes EU migrants many of which will be long established the figure of 700k looks very low. 

Its not if theres nowhere for them to live, and services cant cope, besides the fact that many of them are not net contributors.

 

13 minutes ago, oowee said:

Your right we should be training unfortunately it was not in the Tory plan. 

It looks like it wasnt in labours plan either.

15 minutes ago, oowee said:

I think the difference now is the current govt is trying to do something, on training, on skills, on migration, rather than just bleat. Give em chance Grant , theyve only been in 2 weeks 

Trouble is they have to fix prisons, doctors pay, railways, water companies, sewage, planning, energy, housing, education, health (and anything else left untouched for the last 14 years) at the same time as bank account is empty and the credit card has been declined. 

What they will do is give in to union demands

On planning they will give builders a free pass to do as they wish.
Education ,expect more wokeism.
The NHS is broken, un fixable.
They want to nationalise rail and water, but it wont happen, so they wont change.

 

Labour talk a good game , but the line up to get it done is woefully inexperienced.
Soon you will hear about austerity, because the tories left us no money, and we cant afford to borrow more.
And all those years they harangued the tories over austerity have come back to bite them.

Karma.

[Yellow Bear]

2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Labour talk a good game , but the line up to get it done is woefully inexperienced.
Soon you will hear about austerity, because the tories left us no money, and we cant afford to borrow more.
And all those years they harangued the tories over austerity have come back to bite them.

Lots of expensive promises in the KS - no hint of how they will pay for it.

[Rewulf]

6 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

We are in agreement. On the illegals, I don’t know but apparently Gordon knows it’s 6M, he stated it as fact previously. You know populist fact that’s just fact, period, end of 👍

Do you agree there are illegals living in this country the government knows nothing about ?
Have a wild, educated guess at the figure.

Slight side story.
There used to be a great restaurant/takeaway near me , Ahmeds in Sneinton, proper Pakistani food, I used to eat from there twice a week.
One day I got there and it was shut, tried calling the next day , no answer.
It turned out immigration had raided them, and deported every single person that worked there, all Pakistani nationals.
6 months later it reopened 'under new management' and with a different name, food wasnt as good either, mere weeks later it got raided again, only half the staff this time.
Its absolutely rife out there.

6 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Lots of expensive promises in the KS - no hint of how they will pay for it.

If I hear 'Its been fully costed' one more time off them....
They couldnt cost a night out for 3 of them 

[Yellow Bear]

2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

They couldnt cost a night out for 3 of them

The chancellor has admitted (in the house IIRC) that she could not cost her own family budget.

[oowee]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

its not if theres nowhere for them to live, and services cant cope, besides the fact that many of them are not net contributors.

It looks like it wasnt in labours plan either.

Labour talk a good game , but the line up to get it done is woefully inexperienced.
Soon you will hear about austerity, because the tories left us no money, and we cant afford to borrow more.
And all those years they harangued the tories over austerity have come back to bite them.

Karma.

I guess some wont be net contributors but unlikely to be most. Any data? Yep the services and the housing can't cope because its been left to fester. Most of the ex EU community i know travel back to the EU for medical and dental as it's so much better. 

Line up needs to learn fast thats for sure. Blaming the Tories for leaving no money maxing the credit card and leaving everything broken would be a fair shout. 

Good move today on the Budget responsibility bill. Make sure the Tory budget busters can't destroy the economy again. 

13 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Lots of expensive promises in the KS - no hint of how they will pay for it.

Lots of legislative proposals, not so much in the way of spending.  Tax and spending comes later through spending and budget review. I think we can all agree there is some good stuff in the list. Budget responsiblity, smoking bill (Tories could not get it done), pension schemes bill (another Tory proposal not delivered), Arbitration bill, Crown estate bill (at last), victims courts and protection bill. 

Good start all round lets hope they continue. 

[Raja Clavata]

34 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Do you agree there are illegals living in this country the government knows nothing about ?
Have a wild, educated guess at the figure.

Is that a serious question!? There are lots, millions, I don’t know if it’s 3, 6, 9, 12 or…

We already established nobody knows and there is no practical way of knowing.

I do fail to see how every one of whatever the number is costs us £54,000 per year. Do you agree?

[Raja Clavata]

5 hours ago, Gordon R said:

Got to love the way that anything printed in the Daily Mail is "fake". The figures are alarming and that is just the ones they know about. Add in illegals, which are not known, then it is genuinely alarming. 

Make your mind up, you stated as fact there’s 6M of them, you’ve just stated the number is unknown. Which coincidentally has been my point all along. Please clarify which it is 😂

[Gordon R]

I believe there are more than 6 million illegals, but no-one can be totally accurate. I note, that despite your predictable sniping, you can't come up with any figure at all. You randomly pick 2007 as your starting point. As most were here before then, it is laughable and shows the level of your ignorance.

You are way out of your depth. Your comfort zone seems to be attacking anyone who disagrees with you. Auntie called you out and made you look rather foolish.

Could you cite the number that you believe are here? I suspect not - you will hide behind some trite phrases. It's put up or shut up time.

[Rewulf]

22 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I do fail to see how every one of whatever the number is costs us £54,000 per year. Do you agree?

If theyre below the radar, maybe working a job cash in hand, or maybe even working for criminals, theres an excellent chance that some of them dont cost us anything ?
I think the reference to £54 k pa, comes from those going through the asylum process, which would be a good estimate at the yearly cost, maybe even a little on the low side.

To be clear, there are those that are living here illegally, some for decades.
And there are those that have claimed asylum, and are in the system.

[oowee]

I was just coming to the same conclusion. Even if they drew fully on NHS (thats unlikely with the demographic) it would only be £3500 per annum. 

Flight tickets and bribe payments to Rwanda will no doubt have bumped up the cost for those in the process.

There are only around 1500 captured in the illegal working visits program per annum.

[johnphilip]

36 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

If theyre below the radar, maybe working a job cash in hand, or maybe even working for criminals, theres an excellent chance that some of them dont cost us anything ?
I think the reference to £54 k pa, comes from those going through the asylum process, which would be a good estimate at the yearly cost, maybe even a little on the low side.

To be clear, there are those that are living here illegally, some for decades.
And there are those that have claimed asylum, and are in the system.

Some basic figures  here 

 No wonder some hotels were closing,  to accommodate these illegals at £120-£140 per night 

The Bibby barges at around

£ 120 soon mounts up 

Part of a PDF file 

 

14 minutes ago, johnphilip said:

 

 

 

Edited July 17 by johnphilip

[oowee]

This is why we must beef up the processing. The Tories did some good work with Albania and the automatic return, its the sort of approach we need more of. 

[Raja Clavata]

46 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

If theyre below the radar, maybe working a job cash in hand, or maybe even working for criminals, theres an excellent chance that some of them dont cost us anything ?
I think the reference to £54 k pa, comes from those going through the asylum process, which would be a good estimate at the yearly cost, maybe even a little on the low side.

To be clear, there are those that are living here illegally, some for decades.
And there are those that have claimed asylum, and are in the system.

Totally in agreement, I don’t believe any of that was ever in doubt 👍

[Raja Clavata]

1 hour ago, Gordon R said:

I believe there are more than 6 million illegals, but no-one can be totally accurate. I note, that despite your predictable sniping, you can't come up with any figure at all. You randomly pick 2007 as your starting point. As most were here before then, it is laughable and shows the level of your ignorance.

You are way out of your depth. Your comfort zone seems to be attacking anyone who disagrees with you. Auntie called you out and made you look rather foolish.

Could you cite the number that you believe are here? I suspect not - you will hide behind some trite phrases. It's put up or shut up time.

Are you on some kind of wind up. Let me spell it out to you, I believe there are less than 6M people who fall under the category of illegal immigrant currently residing in the U.K. By illegal immigrant I mean people who entered the country illegally and are unknown to the “authorities”.

Now, please may I continue dialogue with the adults on this forum. Thank-you in advance.

14 minutes ago, oowee said:

This is why we must beef up the processing. The Tories did some good work with Albania and the automatic return, its the sort of approach we need more of. 

Exactly. 

[12gauge82]

5 hours ago, Rewulf said:

 

Labour talk a good game , 

They won a democratic election (in some shape or form anyway). I certainly didn't vote for them but I think it important, especially more now than ever with the vitriol and polarisation in politics and after recent events like the assaults on Farage, MPs run out of office via arson and threats and the assassination attempt on trump, that we allow Labour the chance to do what they claimed they could before the election, which was to improve our wealth, fix public services and fix the illegal migration issues. I'm going to give them a clean sheet and the benefit of the doubt. If they let the country down again like before (I very much hope they don't), I hope they are severely punished at the ballot box next election. 

[12gauge82]

5 hours ago, oowee said:

 

Lots of legislative proposals, not so much in the way of spending.  Tax and spending comes later through spending and budget review. I think we can all agree there is some good stuff in the list. Budget responsiblity, smoking bill (Tories could not get it done), pension schemes bill (another Tory proposal not delivered), Arbitration bill, Crown estate bill (at last), victims courts and protection bill. 

Good start all round lets hope they continue. 

Got to give credit where it's due. All through the election, the Tories claimed they were full of promises but gave no details, that was a far more comprehensive set of planning than I expected. 

[Raja Clavata]

8 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

Got to give credit where it's due. All through the election, the Tories claimed they were full of promises but gave no details, that was a far more comprehensive set of planning than I expected. 

Well said on this and the previous post. I suspect a good number of us are aligned with this even if reluctant to state it openly. Time will tell but perhaps what the country needs is a cabinet populated by “normal” people with diverse backgrounds rather than a privileged elite who are totally out of touch with the real world and unable to practice what they preach.

Time will tell but if they do mess it up then they will get a pasting at the next ballot box.

[Gordon R]

Quote

There are only around 1500 captured in the illegal working visits program per annum.

The question has to be asked as to why the number is so low. Immigration raids were dictated by the Minister, who regularly pulled the plug, because finding more would have been embarrassing. Prisons full up, so illegals were bailed and told to report to Immigration Centres - mainly Croydon - and subsequently vanished into the ether.

They could have easily found 1500 each and every day.

[Rewulf]

13 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

19 hours ago, Rewulf said:

 

Labour talk a good game , 

They won a democratic election (in some shape or form anyway). I certainly didn't vote for them but I think it important, especially more now than ever with the vitriol and polarisation in politics and after recent events like the assaults on Farage, MPs run out of office via arson and threats and the assassination attempt on trump, that we allow Labour the chance to do what they claimed they could before the election,

Well we havent got a great deal of choice in the matter do we ? 

Its rather alarming dont you think , that part of the policy on 'tackling immigration' is to announce an amnesty for illegals already here ?
If we get say HALF Gordons number coming forward, thats 3 million people who immediately qualify for benefits and NHS care, even  1 million would be catastrophic.

This is worth a read, https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2024-05-07/debates/64997110-88BF-4157-8177-D9687A25841B/IllegalImmigrationCosts#:~:text=Home Office figures cited by,France to stop the boats.

Home Office figures show that 74,172 initial decisions on asylum applications were made last year alone. That is four times the number made in 2022. The Government will argue that this is due to the increase in decision makers; their own figures show an increase in those reviewing applications from 865 in 2022 to 1,281 in March 2023, which is an increase of 48%. But 62,336 of those 74,000 initial decisions were successful—a record annual figure. That raises huge questions over the handling of those applications and how those decisions have been made.

In addition, the Home Office expects to spend £482 million on immigration enforcements this year alone, and the costs related to the Rwanda scheme continue to pile up to an eyewatering amount. It is important to note that none of the costs mentioned so far takes into account those associated with our broken asylum system, such as the nearly £8 million a day currently used to house asylum applicants. Home Office figures cited by the Financial Times in August last year showed that the annual asylum cost reached £3.96 billion in the year up to 2023—double that of the previous year and six times higher than 2018. Yet, despite that astronomical cost, we continue to increase handouts to France to stop the boats.

 

[oowee]

22 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Well we havent got a great deal of choice in the matter do we ? 

Its rather alarming dont you think , that part of the policy on 'tackling immigration' is to announce an amnesty for illegals already here ?
If we get say HALF Gordons number coming forward, thats 3 million people who immediately qualify for benefits and NHS care, even  1 million would be catastrophic.

This is worth a read, https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2024-05-07/debates/64997110-88BF-4157-8177-D9687A25841B/IllegalImmigrationCosts#:~:text=Home Office figures cited by,France to stop the boats.

Home Office figures show that 74,172 initial decisions on asylum applications were made last year alone. That is four times the number made in 2022. The Government will argue that this is due to the increase in decision makers; their own figures show an increase in those reviewing applications from 865 in 2022 to 1,281 in March 2023, which is an increase of 48%. But 62,336 of those 74,000 initial decisions were successful—a record annual figure. That raises huge questions over the handling of those applications and how those decisions have been made.

In addition, the Home Office expects to spend £482 million on immigration enforcements this year alone, and the costs related to the Rwanda scheme continue to pile up to an eyewatering amount. It is important to note that none of the costs mentioned so far takes into account those associated with our broken asylum system, such as the nearly £8 million a day currently used to house asylum applicants. Home Office figures cited by the Financial Times in August last year showed that the annual asylum cost reached £3.96 billion in the year up to 2023—double that of the previous year and six times higher than 2018. Yet, despite that astronomical cost, we continue to increase handouts to France to stop the boats.

 

It's unreal what a mess has been left for the govt to clear up. It could hardly be any worse. Looking back at the tories and I can't think of anything they left for the better. 

Not 100% convinced the initial plan is enough but good vibes from security meeting. It can only be good to have a good relationship with important neighbours.