JohnfromUK Posted May 10, 2020 Report Share Posted May 10, 2020 Just now, Raja Clavata said: Agreed, the original approach to herd immunity changed based on a model of spaghetti FORTRAN and C++ code knocked up by Dr Ferguson. When the model showed that the original plan would result in up to 500k deaths the Government realised that, as well as overwhelming the NHS, it would also have been political suicide to continue down that path. The tactics have certainly changed, but as far as I can see - the only long term strategy that will enable us to get back to a 'normal' life is one of herd immunity (by either vaccination or infection) because there is no possibility of eliminating the virus - and herd immunity is the only way to keep it well on the back foot (as measles, polio etc.). The only one I can think of that has been eliminated is smallpox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Clavata Posted May 10, 2020 Report Share Posted May 10, 2020 Just now, JohnfromUK said: The tactics have certainly changed, but as far as I can see - the only long term strategy that will enable us to get back to a 'normal' life is one of herd immunity (by either vaccination or infection) because there is no possibility of eliminating the virus - and herd immunity is the only way to keep it well on the back foot (as measles, polio etc.). The only one I can think of that has been eliminated is smallpox. Agreed, and until then we are walking a tightrope pretty much like every other country. Personally speaking I'm not really sure how I feel about a rushed vaccine and a part of me hopes that, when my household came down with the lurgy in February, we all had it. I certainly won't be at the front of the queue for a vaccine, it might be prioritised by my work as I just "inherited" a team of Engineers in the South of France but whilst they are all working from home, there's no need for me to be there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Clavata Posted May 10, 2020 Report Share Posted May 10, 2020 One of the few points that Boris actually made clear is that now R is below one the quarantine of new arrivals will be effective (which is basically what others and myself have been saying for several weeks on this point across numerous threads). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 Michael O'Leary (head of Ryan Air) said on breakfast TV this morning that most passengers are going to simply ignore the 14 day quarantine rule. I suspect he is right about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lampwick Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 A cynic may say that we are now geared up to suffer the consequences of more victims. Allowing a gradual release of the herd will stagger the admissions to hospital and the resulting deaths but also reduce the cost to the nation of the various support schemes. I have heard locally "it's not affecting us out here" "it's only affecting the smog gobblers" "I haven't head of one death locally from the virus" however I was rather surprised to look at the local death figures with Covid listed on the certificate (as reported in the current manner) Its out there still and will get more of us. Be thoughtful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Lampwick said: A cynic may say that we are now geared up to suffer the consequences of more victims. Allowing a gradual release of the herd will stagger the admissions to hospital and the resulting deaths but also reduce the cost to the nation of the various support schemes. I have heard locally "it's not affecting us out here" "it's only affecting the smog gobblers" "I haven't head of one death locally from the virus" however I was rather surprised to look at the local death figures with Covid listed on the certificate (as reported in the current manner) Its out there still and will get more of us. Be thoughtful. We have to remember that all the people dying from it now, and probably for some weeks back, have been infected with the lockdown restrictions in place. In theory, fourteen days after the lockdown was imposed the number of new cases should have just dropped like somebody had turned off a switch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 6 hours ago, Vince Green said: We have to remember that all the people dying from it now, and probably for some weeks back, have been infected with the lockdown restrictions in place. In theory, fourteen days after the lockdown was imposed the number of new cases should have just dropped like somebody had turned off a switch People have still been mixing though, public transport, supermarkets, then all the people working in front line positions. Never mind anyone who hasn't abided by the lockdown. But I know what you mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7daysinaweek Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Mice! said: People have still been mixing though, public transport, supermarkets, then all the people working in front line positions. Never mind anyone who hasn't abided by the lockdown. But I know what you mean. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al4x Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 12 hours ago, Vince Green said: Michael O'Leary (head of Ryan Air) said on breakfast TV this morning that most passengers are going to simply ignore the 14 day quarantine rule. I suspect he is right about that. Possibly but even before lockdown employers were starting to insist on 14 days before they would let you back to work if you had been to one of the previous hot spots so there is hope that it would be taken seriously. After all if your 2 weeks annual holiday was going to cost you a month off work who would bother Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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