EU In or out

[grrclark]

Ignorance is not being aware of or not acknowledging the facts, the diametric opposite of my comment.

Writing an opinion and including the word "fact" does not actually make it a fact, it simply makes it an arrogant opinion.

 

I think both Scotland and the rest of the UK would have been disadvantaged had we opted for independence which is why I voted against it, but you have been way too simplistic in trying to distill a hugely complex argument down to the same few soundbite statements that were peddled by the tabloid press.

 

Much the same as a great deal of comments in this thread about the EU.

 

Not taking this thread any further off topic by continuing this argument and the subject had been done to death on here many times over.

[secretagentmole]

International market links sterling to eurozone as has been illusated time after time, the market views UK as weaker out of Europe, hence Sterling will fall/crash... Much of the Sterling reduction we have seen in the last four months is the pricing in of a Brexit.

 

Ignorance is not being aware of or not acknowledging the facts, the diametric opposite of my comment.

Er apart from the fact that if we leave the EU that the Euro will collapse without our financial support. The money will then flood into sterling which has traditionally been seen as a safe currency, cue collapse of Euro and an increase in the value of sterling, after all nobody likes holding a busted flush!

[FatFreddysCat]

OUT

Will the Scots vote out to precipitate a second Scottish independence referendum? Any thoughts north of the border?

[secretagentmole]

I don't keep bringing Scotland up, I am responding to previous posts that were incorrect. The market will view UK as weaker out of Europe, that's what essentially values our currency.

Why will we be weaker? Overnight we would become a much more affluent country.

At present the UK enjoys the same trading rights with EU countries that Mexico does, only thing is Mexico does not pay £55,000.000 a day to trade with Europe. We do!

No European company is going to press for import tariffs as we import much more from Europe than we export to Europe, besides there is nothing that Europe sells us that we cannot source from elsewhere in the world, be it agricultural produce (which would be an advantage seeing as they reckon the Birch disease was imported on a batch of trees from the continent), vehicles, gas, textiles, foods, alcohol, all can be sourced elsewhere and if the imports were taxed in the EU we could have the same taxes levied on goods we import from them. So that argument is kicked to the wayside.

 

Travel is already becoming more difficult between EU states thanks to those lovely self detonating Arabs they imported. So the Schengen Area is falling apart (Austrian police regularly patrol trains in Italy telling people to get off the train if they don't like the look of them). So the experiment is ending and it is in our best interests to get off the merry go round as soon as possible,

[FalconFN]

Who says Sterling will get weaker? We leave and the first thing that happens is that the Monopoly Money that is the Euro will collapse as we won't be pumping billions in keeping it afloat!

But we aren't doing that now, we aren't part of the eurozone and take no part in it. This is the kind of mixed-up thinking, along with other stories of straight bananas and the belief that immigration will miraculously cease if we leave, which muddy good debate.

 

The Euro will not implode, even if it weakens due to us leaving, which is debatable as our own markets are likely to take a tumble, all that will do is hit our tourism and export industries and possibly (if the trading agreements allow) help the importers. These are the issues with no clear answers that should be deabted rather than vague, ill-informed fears.

[ElvisThePelvis]

Er apart from the fact that if we leave the EU that the Euro will collapse without our financial support. The money will then flood into sterling which has traditionally been seen as a safe currency, cue collapse of Euro and an increase in the value of sterling, after all nobody likes holding a busted flush!

You are right, traditionally it was, but no longer. Money will flood into USD, CAD, Swiss Fr I would imagine rather than GBP. It will take a long time to set out the exit and other than speculation markets looking to hold cash will be unlikely to put it into a currency with such inherent volatility.

[kent]

Being a farmer I should say IN because of uncertainties over what will replace cap plus uncertain markets, but for me just to think what it could (will) be like in twenty years time if things continue as they are it's a definite OUT.

As long as our own civil servants get brought back into the realms of common sense we will be ok but as it is now a EU directive comes over on a couple of pieces of paper and before it gets passed out Whitehall add 70 more plus some really stupid rules on things no sane person would ever think of, just to keep themselves in a comfy chair not doing any real work, stop that **** and we will be fine.

You of course realise your subsidy is paid by the British taxpayers after Brussels taking a cut

But the very mention of subsidies should be shunned by farms. What's needed is farms controlling thier own destiny not being dictated to by London or Brussels by those who don't know a swaledale from a Jacob etc

We still need to eat you know and is it not better imports are not forced into our market

Remember we are the biggest market / customer I'm Europe if you take into account population pet acre

Opting out could be great for farming and the public and the environment. Animal welfare etc with more local food

[FalconFN]

You are right, traditionally it was, but no longer. Money will flood into USD, CAD, Swiss Fr I would imagine rather than GBP. It will take a long time to set out the exit and other than speculation markets looking to hold cash will be unlikely to put it into a currency with such inherent volatility.

This is undeniably the case. The one thing investors do not like is the unknown.

 

If we leave then the short term effects for the UK markets are likely to be much worse than the much larger eurozone. How this will play out over medium and long terms is anyone's guess, and too many factors are at play to work that one out.

[grrclark]

But we aren't doing that now, we aren't part of the eurozone and take no part in it. This is the kind of mixed-up thinking, along with other stories of straight bananas and the belief that immigration will miraculously cease if we leave, which muddy good debate.

 

The Euro will not implode, even if it weakens due to us leaving, which is debatable as our own markets are likely to take a tumble, all that will do is hit our tourism and export industries and possibly (if the trading agreements allow) help the importers. These are the issues with no clear answers that should be deabted rather than vague, ill-informed fears.

You are spot on, there is a huge volume of ill informed and emotionally driven statements made about the EU and regrettably that will increase as we get nearer the date.

 

It was the same in Scotland as the claim and counter claim became increasingly exagerated and polarised towards the end.

 

There will be lots of very useful information for those who do have a genuine interest in becoming better informed, but sadly the majority will just become more opinionated.

 

If the date for the vote is in May/June this year it will be a little unfortunate as I think we will be straight into ramping mode and the sensible voices will be drowned out by the peddlers of ignorance and bile so little opportunity for meaningful discussion and debate.

Edited February 20, 2016 by grrclark

[ElvisThePelvis]

You are spot on, there is a huge volume of ill informed and emotionally driven statements made about the EU and regrettably that will increase as we get nearer the date.

It was the same in Scotland as the claim and counter claim became increasingly exagerated and polarised towards the end.

There will be lots of very useful information for those who do have a genuine interest in becoming better informed, but sadly the majority will just become more opinionated.

If the date for the vote is in May/June this year it will be a little unfortunate as I think we will be straight into ramping mode and the sensible voices will be drowned out by the peddlers of ignorance and bile so little opportunity for meaningful discussion and debate.

Absolutely right, it's going to be a balancing act between having enough time and people losing interest though and there needs to be much much more easily digestible information for both sides of the argument for people to be able to make an informed decision based on facts, otherwise the referendum will be a disaster.

[kent]

I think some forget that America has a lower value dollar and other major exporters it's an advantage in many ways as a disadvantage

Fact remains with the likes of Turkey comming in and the likelihood of Europe actually failing anyhow soonest out soonest mended

[Donkey]

Out

[KFC]

I will be voting OUT.

I've just been speaking with my neighbour who is a Latvian lorry driver and he's been here for a number of years. He's not a UK citizen and neither is his wife but his son was born here so he doesn't have a clue what will happen if we leave the EU. I'm assuming he'd carry on with a working permit but it's going to make for quite a workload sorting out who should be here and who's entitled to what.

[secretagentmole]

But we aren't doing that now, we aren't part of the eurozone and take no part in it. This is the kind of mixed-up thinking, along with other stories of straight bananas and the belief that immigration will miraculously cease if we leave, which muddy good debate.

 

The Euro will not implode, even if it weakens due to us leaving, which is debatable as our own markets are likely to take a tumble, all that will do is hit our tourism and export industries and possibly (if the trading agreements allow) help the importers. These are the issues with no clear answers that . should be deabted rather than vague, ill-informed fears.

We are propping the Euro up, our money, via our daily contribution, is used to keep that mickey mouse concept going. We have propped up more competing economies with our own money which is then used against us. The Euro will collapse.

Edited February 20, 2016 by secretagentmole

[rodp]

Be interesting to see what stunts the eu and our government pull the closer we get to the referendum. Wait for exports to drop, sterling to devalue and a general decline overall. Then they'll state that it will only get worse if we leave. They'll manipulate the economy to suit and make the gullible vote to stay in. Wouldn't be surprised if all of a sudden some ruling appears that some immigrants can vote !

[grrclark]

We're not propping up the Euro and neither is Sterling pegged to the Euro.

 

We have seen a drop in currency strength because the forward guidance from the BoE was for an increase in the base rate and we had very good growth markers for our economy. Sovreign funds were holding Sterling as they were expecting a return, the USA moved their rates and we changed the forward guidance so Sterling was sold.

 

The major weakness in the Euro is the massively debt ridden economies in the south and how a softening of the global economy in general will lead to fears of default again.

 

The Pound did become a bit more volatile with the concerns of Euro stability, but only because the Euro zone is our single largest market so there is a trading implication and that may impact on our economic performance which in turn impacts on our currency value.

 

A weaker pound is not necessarily a bad thing, but of course it is all about perspective.

 

In the case of a Brexit the Euro zone countries would prefer a very strong pound as they are net exporters to the UK.

[ElvisThePelvis]

Writing an opinion and including the word "fact" does not actually make it a fact, it simply makes it an arrogant opinion.

I think both Scotland and the rest of the UK would have been disadvantaged had we opted for independence which is why I voted against it, but you have been way too simplistic in trying to distill a hugely complex argument down to the same few soundbite statements that were peddled by the tabloid press.

Much the same as a great deal of comments in this thread about the EU.

Not taking this thread any further off topic by continuing this argument and the subject had been done to death on here many times over.

Rubbish, this isn't arrogant, it's the facts, Scotland is a net detractor from the UK economy, ergo the Englush economy would be stronger without it. I have not commented on any other issues which are more speculative. Not liking something and referring to it as an opinion arrogant is complete nonsense.

I think some forget that America has a lower value dollar and other major exporters it's an advantage in many ways as a disadvantage

Fact remains with the likes of Turkey comming in and the likelihood of Europe actually failing anyhow soonest out soonest mended

USD is the strongest it has been for a long time..

[ElvisThePelvis]

We are propping the Euro up, our money, via our daily contribution, is used to keep that mickey mouse concept going. We have propped up more competing economies with out own money which is then used against us. The Euro will collapse.

 

The Euro has a much wider capital base than the UK, and if you look at the charts it appears an element of Brexit is priced in, it may dip, but it sure as hell won't collapse. The Pound however very well may, it will certainly be damaged making imports expensive amongst other downside.

[ElvisThePelvis]

We're not propping up the Euro and neither is Sterling pegged to the Euro.

 

It's not pegged but is intrinsically linked by the wider market.

 

We have seen a drop in currency strength because the forward guidance from the BoE was for an increase in the base rate and we had very good growth markers for our economy. Sovreign funds were holding Sterling as they were expecting a return, the USA moved their rates and we changed the forward guidance so Sterling was sold.

 

In part, also uncertainty is holding GBP value down

 

The major weakness in the Euro is the massively debt ridden economies in the south and how a softening of the global economy in general will lead to fears of default again.

 

The Pound did become a bit more volatile with the concerns of Euro stability, but only because the Euro zone is our single largest market so there is a trading implication and that may impact on our economic performance which in turn impacts on our currency value.

 

A weaker pound is not necessarily a bad thing, but of course it is all about perspective.

 

It seems that GBP is weak enough when you consider other indicators

 

In the case of a Brexit the Euro zone countries would prefer a very strong pound as they are net exporters to the UK.

[Rewulf]

Does anyone else find it strange that,a couple of days ago we were being told by the media that,at least 4 eastern European countries (after having their own little summit) were absolutely against Camerons migrant benefit reforms.

And,the summit needed all 28 member states to agree to them.

That France in particular were absolutely against the concessions that were being asked for our financial institutions.

That Belgium were 'tired ' and 'losing patience ' with our demands about excluding the UK from 'ever closer union' saying it went against the core values of the EU , and was not acceptable and would not happen.

Yet ,this morning,if I am reading the news correctly ,Cam has returned from his marathon round of talks,where it seems he cant have slept for 48 hrs, clutching his 'peace in our time' scrap of paper.

Funny old world...

[timmytree]

Does anyone else find it strange that,a couple of days ago we were being told by the media that,at least 4 eastern European countries (after having their own little summit) were absolutely against Camerons migrant benefit reforms.

And,the summit needed all 28 member states to agree to them.

That France in particular were absolutely against the concessions that were being asked for our financial institutions.

That Belgium were 'tired ' and 'losing patience ' with our demands about excluding the UK from 'ever closer union' saying it went against the core values of the EU , and was not acceptable and would not happen.

Yet ,this morning,if I am reading the news correctly ,Cam has returned from his marathon round of talks,where it seems he cant have slept for 48 hrs, clutching his 'peace in our time' scrap of paper.

Funny old world...

I agree, exactly how much credence can we attach to the concessions? Are they just a smokescreen that will be withdrawn in the near future?

I don't trust David Cameron to deliver but I trust the Eurozone even less. My heart says get out of the EU, as far as possible but my head says listen to all the arguments first but don't believe anything.

[paulnix]

You of course realise your subsidy is paid by the British taxpayers after Brussels taking a cut

But the very mention of subsidies should be shunned by farms. What's needed is farms controlling thier own destiny not being dictated to by London or Brussels by those who don't know a swaledale from a Jacob etc

We still need to eat you know and is it not better imports are not forced into our market

Remember we are the biggest market / customer I'm Europe if you take into account population pet acre

Opting out could be great for farming and the public and the environment. Animal welfare etc with more local food

Of course, its the last thing farmers want and needed, it was actually a nail in our coffin when they came in and each time there is a review we are worse off, our problem is the fact supermarkets are too strong and no one has the political stomach to fight them, Gordon Brown admitted as much when he was in and it gotten worse since then the last thing farmers want is subsidies, fact is when they were introduced the value of our products fell by the same amount and them some, along with the civil servants making up ridiculous rules supermarkets are the only winners on subsidies.

 

But as I said i'm voting out mostly because I can see how things are moving and in twenty years imagine what our children will be putting up with and rather take the chance to try and improve things now than see it only get worse.

[old'un]

Well it looks like you will all get your chance....news 10 minutes ago, Britain will vote on whether to remain in the EU on Thursday 23 June, Prime Minister David Cameron has said.

[grrclark]

Rubbish, this isn't arrogant, it's the facts, Scotland is a net detractor from the UK economy, ergo the Englush economy would be stronger without it. I have not commented on any other issues which are more speculative. Not liking something and referring to it as an opinion arrogant is complete nonsense.

That isn't a fact though, there are a number of competing pieces of evidence that suggest the opposite is true and that Scotland actually contributes more on a pro rata basis.

 

The problem is that there is no clear line of demarkation that can accurately establish what the contribution is as we are so intrinsincly linked.

 

We are unable to determine what the accurate share of VAT, corporation tax, income tax, oil & gas levies, export duties, etc are, we can only estimate which is why we have competing evidence. We don't actually know is the blunt truth.

 

I could provide evidence from government sourced and endorsed information that supports both sides of the argument and all from the same research, a small difference in starting assumptions has significant divergence in the final result.

 

Yes the decline in oil & gas prices would have had a proportionately greater impact in an independent Scotland and yes our ratio of public sector employment is geared unfavourably compared to England, as an average, and those were good reasons to vote no, but it is inaccurate to state that Scotland is a net detractor only because we are unable to confirm that one way or the other.

 

Whilst we are at it remember that England also consumes more than it earns, just like the rest of the UK; that is why we have a structural fiscal deficit. On a pro rated basis the Scottish deficit would run at a lower percentage that the rest of the UK, what does that suggest?

 

However all of this is based on snapshots at a point in time and it is a constantly moving picture so it is also completely disingenuous and foolish to strongly argue one way or the other, likewise it was foolish of the SNP to weight their argument so strongly in favour of a volatile commodity price.

 

Scotland is widely accepted as being a positive factor in the UK balance of trade; the UK also has a higher gearing of debt to trade balance than most global economies, so much so our lower borrowing costs are an anomaly to what would normally be expected. Scotland seceding from the UK would have had a major impact on that causing a significant increase in borrowing costs for the rest of the UK.

 

Given there is a £1.4tn debt to be serviced across this nation that change would have had a massive impact, increasing the structural deficit and having a very real impact on the rest of the UK.

 

It isn't just about tax revenues and the Barnett formula.

 

It would have benefitted nobody had the UK split other than the small minded, flag waving jingoists on both sides of the border.

 

Thankfully our integration with EU is not nearly so complex hence the impact of a Brexit is much less likely to have massive fundamental impact.

[markfromholland]

I am Dutch and live across the channel in holland.

 

If one is smart, vote out !

we are being lied to every day about how wonderful the import

of asylum seekers is, wow, our mixed culture country.

 

Well, rape by these people happens every day! The only thing

our president Rutte worries about, is to keep this negative news

out of the publicity.

 

We have a large group of people for the third generation of import

workers, well we can say that integration of this culture was a big failure.

 

Nowadays some people say that it is better for women to be wise and

and stay indoor at night and dress properly as an refugee might be offended !

 

It is the world upside down here.

 

Apart from the problems Greece brings to us and other poor countries.

 

Please be sensible and vote out, i only wish we would have had a chance

for a referendum.

 

I expect political change next year when we can vote for a new government.