14 million in poverty

[Prospero]

12 minutes ago, Whatmuff said:

 Standby for next year when the masses start pointing fingers at Trump and his policies and Brexit.

Ah yes. It's obviously all his fault. And Brexit. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🌨

[Mungler]

Our old office cleaner is Bulgarian and her kids are growing up in this country - they are both in grammar schools. She speaks good English and when she works she doesn’t stop.

Speaking to her is enlightening:

1. The majority of English people are soft, lazy and entitled 

2. Her children go to school to learn, not play

3. Her children won’t be a ground worker or a cleaner (yes her husband is a ground worker).

She’s since packed in cleaning because she took night school classes to get into teaching. She left Bulgaria as a fully qualified seamstress but there was no work / opportunities.

I still think that in this country you can be whatever you want to be if you really want to. Ok some life choices may limit but this Country has way more opportunities than others although many can’t see it or rather wilfully can’t see it.

As for this socialist nonsense that you have to make the rich poorer to make the poor richer - that just brings a little sick up in my mouth.

[Dave-G]

I'm not convinced that 40% property plunge is anything but a load of media waffle to create a story. 

I'm no expert but if TM backs off the panic housing builds to cover a housing shortage crisis, I don't see how the prices could dive like that. Sure there will be buyers who took on more than they could afford but I'm sure there's plenty of other buyers ready to snap something up if it gets to be just a little bit cheaper.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Dave-G

[Whatmuff]

8 hours ago, Dave-G said:

I'm not convinced that 40% property plunge is anything but a load of media waffle to create a story. 

I'm no expert but if TM backs off the panic housing builds to cover a housing shortage crisis, I don't see how the prices could dive like that. Sure there will be buyers who took on more than they could afford but I'm sure there's plenty of other buyers ready to snap something up if it gets to be just a little bit cheaper.

Property rose 40% in a heart beat, why would it be so difficult to fall? If the economy slows and a majority of people could not afford the loan they took on it then the entire market would crash. The global financial system in absolutely dependent on property, both private and commercial and at the moment is well over valued. Commercial property is taking a dive as we speak with companies closing down and no one to take their place. An empty warehouse on a shopping park is a huge liability if empty. People tend to forget history and are buying up property with the intention that it will still rise in value, based on the last 40 years. But they forget interest rates are at pretty much zero and they're not going to get lower, only higher, and the servicing costs on their debt will rise.

[Dave-G]

1 hour ago, Whatmuff said:

Property rose 40% in a heart beat, why would it be so difficult to fall? If the economy slows and a majority of people could not afford the loan they took on it then the entire market would crash. The global financial system in absolutely dependent on property, both private and commercial and at the moment is well over valued. Commercial property is taking a dive as we speak with companies closing down and no one to take their place. An empty warehouse on a shopping park is a huge liability if empty. People tend to forget history and are buying up property with the intention that it will still rise in value, based on the last 40 years. But they forget interest rates are at pretty much zero and they're not going to get lower, only higher, and the servicing costs on their debt will rise.

I suggest excessive immigration forced a thirst for ever more housing, particularly where so many immigrants seem to want to form an enclave if you you like.

As long as there is high immigration causing a shortage of housing I'm confident the clamour will continue and my house will not depreciate much - if at all - particularly in this high immigrant area.

That's not immigrant bashing by the way, just a realisation that there is a clamour for housing in such areas. I agree housing has climbed sharply over the last few years - and am so glad I bought my first (and only) two bed semi 18 years ago.

 

EDIT: Most modern houses round here have parking areas round the back for one car, but there's often another one two cars parked on the kerb at the front because the house has so many earners paying for it. Most new housing on the estate still being built near me is over £300K - but thay still can't build enough.

 

I think commercial properties/shopping precints have been over supplied with companies not realising tinternet is where most people shop now.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Dave-G

[Vince Green]

1 hour ago, Whatmuff said:

Property rose 40% in a heart beat, why would it be so difficult to fall? If the economy slows and a majority of people could not afford the loan they took on it then the entire market would crash. The global financial system in absolutely dependent on property, both private and commercial and at the moment is well over valued. Commercial property is taking a dive as we speak with companies closing down and no one to take their place. An empty warehouse on a shopping park is a huge liability if empty. People tend to forget history and are buying up property with the intention that it will still rise in value, based on the last 40 years. But they forget interest rates are at pretty much zero and they're not going to get lower, only higher, and the servicing costs on their debt will rise.

Property prices have dropped in the past, the value of a house is an arbitrary value based on many things but one of the big factors is confidence. At the moment houses are not selling and you can see on Zoopla prices are being reduced. That sends the market into free fall because buyers sit back and wait for another drop.

I would say we are on the brink, idiots will blame Brexit but the market is over inflated without a doubt. 

One of the big reasons for prices dropping in London is the benefits cap. Housing Benefit isn't enough to pay the rent on a property so landlords can't get tenants. The property stands empty and the landlords are selling up.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Vince Green

[Mungler]

Being at the coal face, property is a bit of a joker card subject.

During the last recession (2008) it was like someone pulled the telephone line out of our property department. All you could hear was 10 people with very little to do breathing heavily. That absolute dead-hit on the buffers was caused by lack of finance availability in the market place and nothing else - almost every lender pulled lending whilst they worked out where they were and what their balance sheets actually looked like.

I have a generational Jewish family property company, and watching what they do over the years has taught me a thing or two; their view is never sell property; you can rent it, mortgage it or even swap it but never be tempted to sell it for cash because cash does not perform like property in the long term and they have proven to be right. That family company even in the recession with a supressed portfolio valuation of £20m and 75% plus net equity in that figure couldn't raise a penny from their existing bankers to buy more property in 2008. When the crash happened they were bright enough and long in the tooth enough to know it wasn't going to be forever and they wanted to get down the auctions and start buying. Their bankers wouldn't lend to them to buy property but would lend them money if they wanted to finance the purchase of a brand new Rolls Royce. I would say  that round my neck of the woods, property has at least doubled since 2008.

The 2008 recession was pretty grinding and we didn't break out properly until 2012 - I think that was a combination of a good summer and the Olympics and a better feeling within the population and pent up market demand that tipped.

What we saw was pent up market place demand. Whilst the housing sales market was stagnant 2008-2010, rentals went through the roof, and this is the fundamental key - demand. For every year that went by where people didn't buy or didn't move there was then that pent up demand; a market place that wanted to buy, wanted to sell, wanted to move out of home (and for every year another generation arrived wanting to leave home) and so we went from recession to boom once lending stabilised.

Don't ever under estimate demand - we are a small island nation and without getting all Tommy Robinson, certainly in the South East there are just too many people. Those people are living longer and having children and there is just not enough property to go round.

Short of a World War or Spanish flu, long term I can only see property in the right location going one way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Whatmuff]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Being at the coal face, property is a bit of a joker card subject.

During the last recession (2008) it was like someone pulled the telephone line out of our property department. All you could hear was 10 people with very little to do breathing heavily. That absolute dead-hit on the buffers was caused by lack of finance availability in the market place and nothing else - almost every lender pulled lending whilst they worked out where they were and what their balance sheets actually looked like.

I have a generational Jewish family property company, and watching what they do over the years has taught me a thing or two; their view is never sell property; you can rent it, mortgage it or even swap it but never be tempted to sell it for cash because cash does not perform like property in the long term and they have proven to be right. That family company even in the recession with a supressed portfolio valuation of £20m and 75% plus net equity in that figure couldn't raise a penny from their existing bankers to buy more property in 2008. When the crash happened they were bright enough and long in the tooth enough to know it wasn't going to be forever and they wanted to get down the auctions and start buying. Their bankers wouldn't lend to them to buy property but would lend them money if they wanted to finance the purchase of a brand new Rolls Royce. I would say  that round my neck of the woods, property has at least doubled since 2008.

The 2008 recession was pretty grinding and we didn't break out properly until 2012 - I think that was a combination of a good summer and the Olympics and a better feeling within the population and pent up market demand that tipped.

What we saw was pent up market place demand. Whilst the housing sales market was stagnant 2008-2010, rentals went through the roof, and this is the fundamental key - demand. For every year that went by where people didn't buy or didn't move there was then that pent up demand; a market place that wanted to buy, wanted to sell, wanted to move out of home (and for every year another generation arrived wanting to leave home) and so we went from recession to boom once lending stabilised.

Don't ever under estimate demand - we are a small island nation and without getting all Tommy Robinson, certainly in the South East there are just too many people. Those people are living longer and having children and there is just not enough property to go round.

Short of a World War or Spanish flu, long term I can only see property in the right location going one way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trouble is we never broke out of the 2008 recession we just kicked the can down the road and made what could have been bad even worse. People forget where the perceived value in their current property comes from and simply use the supply and demand arguement to bolster the argument that houses will always have value. 2008 caused interest rates to fall to practically zero so money became cheaper to borrow and we could borrow so much more based on the same monthly outgoing, this directly inflated the housing market only it added to the UK debt. People have borrowed money they cannot pay back. 

A market with 75% equity is fine but when a market is 20% negative equity people get twitchy. I have spoke to many estate agents and they are worried beyond belief. London house prices have fallen at least 10-15% in the last two years, so it's already happening. Don't believe me check it out for yourself. People won't buy houses if banks don't lend, people won't pay high prices if they cannot get the money from the bank. Check out what happened to our debt after 2009 to help falsely stimulate the economy below.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Whatmuff

[Rewulf]

14 minutes ago, Whatmuff said:

London house prices have fallen at least 10-15% in the last two years, so it's already happening

Where are you getting those stats from ?
London house prices fell by 0.6 % for the first time this year, after years of steady 5% growth for the last 5 + years, and thats maily down to the small interest rate rise.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/96389/london-house-prices-explained-in-five-charts

[Whatmuff]

4 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Where are you getting those stats from ?
London house prices fell by 0.6 % for the first time this year, after years of steady 5% growth for the last 5 + years, and thats maily down to the small interest rate rise.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/96389/london-house-prices-explained-in-five-charts

ONS statistics, really? Since when have they been accurate and not doctored for the government's reputation. 

 

"According to a recent report by Savills, a property firm, prime prices in central London are 15% below their peak of three years ago."

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.economist.com/britain/2017/11/02/londons-bubbly-housing-market-goes-flat#ampf=undefined

this was this time last year and I don't think what's happening at the moment has reached the media yet. It's just people around me who actually have their homes up for sale at the moment in the SE and what they have sold for. Mother in law's was valued at 490k sold it for 400k. Best mates was valued at 750k sold it for 650k. Call it what you will but that to me is real time data directly from the market today and not a statistic that was cherry picked to provide the general public with a nice upward trend. Trouble is with property it takes along time for it to take effect and reach the news. 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Whatmuff said:

ONS statistics, really? Since when have they been accurate and not doctored for the government's reputation. 

😃😃

 

1 minute ago, Whatmuff said:

According to a recent report by Savills, a property firm, prime prices in central London are 15% below their peak of three years ago."

So Savills are right , and the ONS  is wrong, plus you give a whole 2 examples of prices that couldnt possibly have been overpriced to start with, as your proof.

Crack on Sir.

[Whatmuff]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/house-prices-falling-in-more-than-half-of-london-boroughs-with-flats-worst-hit-a125696.html%3famp

 

I suppose they are starting to report about it, and the nice mention of Brexit in there. Hold on tight!

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, Whatmuff said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/house-prices-falling-in-more-than-half-of-london-boroughs-with-flats-worst-hit-a125696.html%3famp

 

I suppose they are starting to report about it, and the nice mention of Brexit in there. Hold on tight!

The link makes Savills data  completely wrong then does it not ?

Plus massaging low house prices and sales figures is an excellent tactic to stimulate the market.
Blaming Brexit or the Russians doesnt get away from the fact that London house prices have been ready to bottom out for a very long time.

[Mungler]

The market is in for a downwards adjustment but it's not going to make much difference for most home owners - they have one home, they have to live in it and market adjustments don't manifest unless you are moving. So, people just sit tight.

There are bubbles around London that ought to burst - logic tells me that a 2 bedroom flat in Hackney can't really be worth £695k+ but a family detached commuter belt house in the South East near a station and a good school, well that's going to be fairly static as long as London as we know it doesn't disappear to Frankfurt or Paris.

 

[Whatmuff]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

😃😃

 

So Savills are right , and the ONS  is wrong, plus you give a whole 2 examples of prices that couldnt possibly have been overpriced to start with, as your proof.

Crack on Sir.

I haven't got time to analyse the entire UK property market as it's so huge and diverse. But I can tell from what's happening around me and from actual cases that it's falling rapidly. The whole 2 examples are from people who I know, which would tell me something isn't right. Take it as you wish but I'll be back here in a year and we can carry on the debate there. If you think people as Mungler sayswill have 695k for a two bed flat when the economy slows down then fine carry on believing it. 

[henry d]

17 hours ago, grrclark said:

Also 7bn people and growing living on this wee ball will precipitate change all by itself, regardless of what the politics are.

And that is it in a nutshell. No regime/government of any colour will be or could be successful it just like microsoft, stick a plaster over it until the next hole appears.

People get all upset and blame immigration/immigrants for just about everything, but it will get to "...peasants with pitchforks!" time real soon. I read this yesterday and I have to say it has a ring of truth about it, it concerns 50-100 years in the future;

Quote

Sea level is 16 feet higher on average. 400 million haave died. Another 700 million are displaced. Europe south of the Alps is pretty nudge uninhabitable. The northern countries have become military dictatorships. One third of the population of the USA now lives in what was once Canada, mostly in the West. The American war with Mexico never happened. The territory was simply abandoned when average temperatures for 6 months topped 50°C. Australia and Africa had the same experience. Most of the world looks like a desert. The UK is a hot subtropical swamp. The atmosphere is so polluted that life expectancy is expected to drop to 35. Armed gangs pillage and order had completely broken down. With the progressive destruction of the planet's ability to make oxygen, the oceans are nearly dead, and the runaway disaster is expected to reduce the human population to about 2 billion by the turn of the century. There are those who advocate speeding this along humanely and drones are deployed to exterminate the starving and dying.

Of course it all those immigrants and how they breed and stick to the same enclaves to blame for the state we are in...

21 hours ago, Yellow Bear said:

So now you are saying that we need social workers to teach life skills - In reality the job is the parents but the state will do everything mentality is still in the ascendance.

Yes and yes!

[Whatmuff]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

😃😃

 

So Savills are right , and the ONS  is wrong, plus you give a whole 2 examples of prices that couldnt possibly have been OVERPRICED to start with, as your proof.

Crack on Sir.

What's the difference between overpriced and the ones that sell below market value? Market value through an estate agent is what has caused a lot of people to remortgage their home on a perceived value rather than what it would actually sell for. It also gives people an idea they have a nice asset worth an amount of money when in fact it could be worth far less if and when they need to sell. For example someone's house apparently goes up in value due to Zoopla values, and then the owner remortgages the home for more to enable them to borrow more against the property. This is happening and has happened to a stupid level over the last 5 years. 

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, Whatmuff said:

What's the difference between overpriced and the ones that sell below market value? Market value through an estate agent is what has caused a lot of people to remortgage their home on a perceived value rather than what it would actually sell for. It also gives people an idea they have a nice asset worth an amount of money when in fact it could be worth far less if and when they need to sell. For example someone's house apparently goes up in value due to Zoopla values, and then the owner remortgages the home for more to enable them to borrow more against the property. This is happening and has happened to a stupid level over the last 5 years. 

Youre absolutely correct.
But is that a cause of poverty or debt ?

[Whatmuff]

51 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Youre absolutely correct.
But is that a cause of poverty or debt ?

A bit of both, but poverty as discussed is on different levels so that's a minefield. And Government policies have allowed the debt and who it's handed out to, to get way out of control. This news article is 20 mins old and is already blaming Brexit for 5 different homebuilding company shares today falling 10% because of a few minsters leaving over Brexit. It's happening, sooner than I thought mind, but it's happening now. Oh and which house building company is on there???? Persimmon homes. Just a good thing Fairburn got his 75m share pay out before they crashed! 

[Dekers]

Nobody who smokes, drinks, has a 50" TV, wears designer trainers/clothes and walks around with a Coke in the hands whilst pushing a top of the range child buggy is in POVERTY, I can't afford all that, but see them all the time queuing up at the dole office!

[Rewulf]

2 minutes ago, Whatmuff said:

A bit of both, but poverty as discussed is on different levels so that's a minefield. And Government policies have allowed the debt and who it's handed out to, to get way out of control. This news article is 20 mins old and is already blaming Brexit for 5 different homebuilding company shares today falling 10% because of a few minsters leaving over Brexit. It's happening, sooner than I thought mind, but it's happening now. Oh and which house building company is on there???? Persimmon homes. Just a good thing Fairburn got his 75m share pay out before they crashed! 

 

Theres nothing unusual about a share drop when the country is having internal issues.
People like soros make billions out of shares going down.
You never really hear about it when they creep back up again though.

Mark the price of a select 5 FTSE 100 firms today after this share 'crash' then recheck this time next week.

2 minutes ago, Dekers said:

Nobody who smokes, drinks, has a 50" TV, wears designer trainers/clothes and walks around with a Coke in the hands whilst pushing a top of the range child buggy is in POVERTY, I can't afford all that, but see them all the time queuing up at the dole office!

But..but .. the think tank says so because they arent working, so it must be true 😂

[Jongwe]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Theres nothing unusual about a share drop when the country is having internal issues.
People like soros make billions out of shares going down.
You never really hear about it when they creep back up again though.

Mark the price of a select 5 FTSE 100 firms today after this share 'crash' then recheck this time next week.

Spoke to a financial adviser last week and he is of the opinion that we are at the end of the longest running (10 years iirc) bull market for years and we should expect a bear market for some time given the current global and local concerns.

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, Jongwe said:

Spoke to a financial adviser last week and he is of the opinion that we are at the end of the longest running (10 years iirc) bull market for years and we should expect a bear market for some time given the current global and local concerns.

People can make lots of money on the opinion of others when it comes to the financial markets.

They can also lose a lot.
No doubt he is confident enough to put his money where his opinion is ?

 

[Jongwe]

2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

People can make lots of money on the opinion of others when it comes to the financial markets.

They can also lose a lot.
No doubt he is confident enough to put his money where his opinion is ?

 

Well, he is certainly confident to put my money there - lol

[Rewulf]

4 minutes ago, Jongwe said:

Well, he is certainly confident to put my money there - lol

He would be ! 😃