Brexit - merged threads

[Rewulf]

18 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Shame we (TM and her Remoaner negotiators) capitulated far too soon, hopefully Boris and Team can get a sensible response from Barnier et al!

History will judge her accordingly.
She never really had her heart in leaving,  less of a capitulation, than singing from the same song sheet as Brussels from the start , maybe she thought it was the 'right' thing to do ?

Time will probably tell.

Same with Barnier, he wasnt trying to facilitate us leaving, he was trying to STOP us leaving.
If the EU was seriously trying to make Brexit work for both sides, why would you put someone like him in charge of their side of it ?
Surely it would be like us using Farage as our Brexit negotiator, it would be a very short negotiation 😃

[Retsdon]

Vauxhall set to close UK factory with loss of 1,000 jobs if no-deal Brexit goes ahead, chief executive suggests

Full circle from Mrs. T and Keith Joseph.

“The deal [is] tangible evidence of the benefits to the UK of membership of the European Community; Nissan [has] chosen the United Kingdom because it [gives] them access to the whole European market. If we were outside the community, it is very unlikely that Nissan would have given the United Kingdom serious consideration as a base for this substantial investment.” Sir Keith Joseph, Industry Minister in a memo to Margaret Thatcher, 1980.

Last one out of the door please turn out the lights.

[oowee]

“Two stark messages stand out. The first is to get on with the work. The second is to get back to the negotiating table so that this wasteful and complex process becomes redundant. The EU’s preparations lag the UK’s so it’s in their interest as much as ours to use the dynamic of a new prime minister to reset the approach.”

Quote from Guido 

[Retsdon]

2 hours ago, pinfireman said:

So, in real terms, you cannot contradict Gordon? 

Boris’s strategy of doing the opposite of what his opponents expect – and actually being serious about leaving the EU deal or no deal – is continuing to yield results. Now it’s Eurosceptics’ longtime adversary the CBI who have been forced to come round. Director-General Carolyn Fairbairn took to The Times to set out their new “pragmatic” approach to no deal:

“Our view has not changed. Business wants a deal. But we are also pragmatists. We have been preparing our members for the possibility of no deal for many months. Now is the time to shift to an emergency footing… And, contrary to some claims, the EU is behind the UK in its plans to prevent the worst effects…

“The CBI has set out more than 200 recommendations for action. For the government, it shows that good work has been carried out in prioritising short-term stability and temporary measures, such as its approach to licences for regulated EU goods imports…

“For the EU, it means at least matching the UK’s sensible temporary mitigations in a range of areas. They must look at further potential temporary standstills and extensions of emergency measures, especially around borders and data flows. They should also bring forward the ability for UK firms to apply for essential licences as a third country before the UK leaves…

“Two stark messages stand out. The first is to get on with the work. The second is to get back to the negotiating table so that this wasteful and complex process becomes redundant. The EU’s preparations lag the UK’s so it’s in their interest as much as ours to use the dynamic of a new prime minister to reset the approach.”

The Times’ writeup even included the phrasing “the CBI is pressing Brussels to drop its boycott of talks”. Who’d have thought we’d see the day when the UK’s ‘biggest’ business lobby group finally decided to put the pressure on Brussels rather than Downing Street – as it has for the last three years? When the PM actually leads, others follow…

Source: Guido Fawkes ....

I just know Raja,s gonna love this!

So what's your point? Everyone and his dog knows that the EU is making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit, and everyone and his dog knows that the EU plans to unilaterally waive certain 3rd country restrictions for a limited time  to mitigate the most disruptive results of a no deal Brexit on its members. As for the Times report and 'its boycott of talks', it's the wrong terminology. There's no 'boycott'. Given the so called red lines that Theresa May laid down as preconditions to the original negotiations, the WA agreement was the only arrangement that could be arrived at. The hated 'backstop' was a solution to the conundrum of accommodating May's preconditions. So there's no boycott. There's just nothing to say as long as May's preconditions still stand. And anyone who believes that the EU can possibly undermine the integrity of its own Single Market to accommodate the UK doesn't grasp  the fundamental basis on which the whole EU is built.

You see, if you get all your info from Guido all the time, eventually you become unable to differentiate the spin from the content.

[panoma1]

That isn't how I heard it reported! The news on TV reported Vauxhall as saying something like, if the companies profits were hit by Brexit or a no deal Brexit, they would look to move production elsewhere!........NOT that the factory would close in the event of a no deal Brexit!

[Retsdon]

2 minutes ago, panoma1 said:

That isn't how I heard it reported! The news on TV reported Vauxhall as saying something like, if the companies profits were hit by Brexit or a no deal Brexit, they would look to move production elsewhere!........NOT that the factory would close in the event of a no deal Brexit!

“Frankly I would prefer to put it in Ellesmere Port but if the conditions are bad and I cannot make it profitable then I have to protect the rest of the company and I will not do it,”said Mr Tavares. “We have an alternative to Ellesmere Port.”

It follows Friday’s warning from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders that a no-deal Brexit was an “existential threat” to the industry.

But of course, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders are signed up members of Project Fear

[oowee]

10 minutes ago, panoma1 said:

That isn't how I heard it reported! The news on TV reported Vauxhall as saying something like, if the companies profits were hit by Brexit or a no deal Brexit, they would look to move production elsewhere!........NOT that the factory would close in the event of a no deal Brexit!

The new Astra will be built in a location that comes out best based upon a host of factors including costs for establishment and redundancy. A no deal Brexit (or any Brexit for that matter, including delay) opens that discussion again.  Toying with individuals livelihoods for the allusion of sovereignty 

Edited July 29, 2019 by oowee

[Rewulf]

22 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

So what's your point? Everyone and his dog knows that the EU is making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit, and everyone and his dog knows that the EU plans to unilaterally waive certain 3rd country restrictions for a limited time  to mitigate the most disruptive results of a no deal Brexit on its members.

The point is , the CBI whos profits of doom (pun intended) projections tried very hard to swing public opinion away from leaving, no matter what their members thought, has now had to admit, it might not be that bad !

 

25 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Given the so called red lines that Theresa May laid down as preconditions to the original negotiations, the WA agreement was the only arrangement that could be arrived at. The hated 'backstop' was a solution to the conundrum of accommodating May's preconditions. So there's no boycott.

What red lines  ?
The ones she gave up the instant negotiations started ?!
The backstop that was written into the WA, that Brussels wrote for her to pass through the cabinet and parliament ?
The one a drunken fool would have known would never get past parliament ?

The backstop was written in from the get go, and designed to make the whole process fail, so she could then go back and say 'Brexit cant happen'

Have you been paying attention ?

28 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

And anyone who believes that the EU can possibly undermine the integrity of its own Single Market to accommodate the UK doesn't grasp  the fundamental basis on which the whole EU is built.

The EU gives access to its markets from all kind of non EU countries ?
The 'integrity' of its market is pure illusion, its simply 'pay us some money and we'll give you access' !

How do you think all manner of Chinese goods get into this and every other EU country ?
Does the single market protect itself from them ?
Of course not!
This kind of rainbow chasing rhetoric will , as the name suggests, get you no where.

The 'fundamental basis' of the EU is trade, if it makes them money they will allow it, but it works both ways, remember that.

28 minutes ago, oowee said:

The new Astra will be built in a location that comes out best based upon a host of factors including costs for establishment and redundancy. A no deal Brexit (or any Brexit for that matter, including delay) opens that discussion again.  Toying with individuals livelihoods for the allusion of sovereignty 

Youre damned right it will.
One of them based on how many are going to get sold in this country, or may get hit with an import tariff and priced out the market if they are not made here .

Toying with livelihoods is what the EU are doing with 500 million European citizens, for the illusion of freedom and liberalism.

[Retsdon]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

The EU gives access to its markets from all kind of non EU countries ?
The 'integrity' of its market is pure illusion, its simply 'pay us some money and we'll give you access' !

You don't understand how it works, do you? Having access to the Single Market is not the same thing AT ALL as being in the single market. When Britain leaves on Halloween without a deal it will still have access. What it won't have is the same access as EU or EEA members. 

[Rewulf]

2 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

You don't understand how it works, do you? Having access to the Single Market is not the same thing AT ALL as being in the single market.

I know exactly what the difference is ..about £10 billion a year better off.

[panoma1]

32 minutes ago, oowee said:

The new Astra will be built in a location that comes out best based upon a host of factors including costs for establishment and redundancy. A no deal Brexit (or any Brexit for that matter, including delay) opens that discussion again.  Toying with individuals livelihoods for the allusion of sovereignty 

Yes, but by all accounts, Vauxhall didn't say, if a no deal Brexit goes ahead, they would close the UK factory, with a loss of 1000 jobs and move production elsewhere, did they?

 

[Raja Clavata]

3 hours ago, pinfireman said:

“Our view has not changed. Business wants a deal. But we are also pragmatists. We have been preparing our members for the possibility of no deal for many months. Now is the time to shift to an emergency footing… And, contrary to some claims, the EU is behind the UK in its plans to prevent the worst effects…

Selective quoting, conveniently missing out the quote prior to "our view has not changed" which states that "no deal will damage our economy no matter how much we prepare".

Like as was suggested before, let's give BoJo some time, Brexiteer ejaculations that everything is now going their way seem just a tad premature and they could well be setting themselves up for more disappointment further down the line. At least the scapegoat this time around is clear, BoJo has already stated the buck stops with him. Just keep feeding 'em the rope lads 🙂

[Penelope]

17 hours ago, tandytommo said:

Well I agree with you about David Cameron' s lack of balls and getting scared of his party losing a few votes to the blue rinse brigade in the backward muddy swamps of the south east and capitulating to the likes of Farage & Johnson. Being weak, devious, dishonest and having no moral compass  must be compulsory at Eton and the Bullington Club.

Just looking at the names on this one page in front of me Rewulf, GordonR, Pinfireman  & Henry d, between you you've racked up over 40 thousand posts of right wing drivel suspect you must be trolls at the Conservative Party HQ or perhaps you just don't get out much ?

 

 

 

 

Henry d? Henry d? Right wing? Now I know you are having a tin bath!!

[Retsdon]

10 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I know exactly what the difference is ..about £10 billion a year better off.

5th form stuff again. What I meant, when I suggested you don't understand how the Single Market works, is that you don't understand how the Single Market works - I mean how it operates on a day to day basis. But the thing is, very few people do. Certainly, judging by what comes out their mouths, 95 percent of politicians and journalists don't understand it either. So I'm not trying to insult you in any way. It's not easy stuff to get ones head around. Anyway, for what it's worth, this blog post from Dr. North examines the fundamental differences between a system based on integrated vertical checks and standards (like the Single Market) and a system based on 'end of pipe' checks and standards (like 3rd party access has to the Single Market). Anyway, even if you personally don't want to read it, but there may be others following this thread who don't have a corner to fight and might be interested in a bit of further information. Anyway, here it is. http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87306

[pinfireman]

On 27/07/2019 at 17:54, Capt Christopher Jones said:

yes, as we have very poor government here, who have presided over 9 years of stagnation for most of us, with higher national debt & diluting the £s value with QE

Yes, but never mind, it could have been worse....it could have been another Labour government!

22 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Henry d? Henry d? Right wing? Now I know you are having a tin bath!!

Probably one of the tinfoil hat brigade!

[oowee]

33 minutes ago, panoma1 said:

Yes, but by all accounts, Vauxhall didn't say, if a no deal Brexit goes ahead, they would close the UK factory, with a loss of 1000 jobs and move production elsewhere, did they?

 

No and neither did I. What is happening is that the investment is not being made until they have a clear picture of costs. If its a no deal then you just have to hope that the margins are still in favour of the UK. 

[Rewulf]

11 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

5th form stuff again. What I meant, when I suggested you don't understand how the Single Market works, is that you don't understand how the Single Market works - I mean how it operates on a day to day basis. But the thing is, very few people do. Certainly, judging by what comes out their mouths, 95 percent of politicians and journalists don't understand it either. So I'm not trying to insult you in any way. It's not easy stuff to get ones head around.

Err OK thats a mixed message 😆
But you do right ??

Why dont you offer your services , might curry favour with Bojo 😐

[Vince Green]

3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

When the weapon you try to use against your enemy is found to be completely ineffective , do you still continue to use it ?

Project fear 1 and 2 had limited success, people are wise to it now, virtually NOTHING predicted has come true, yes the £ took a hit, but that worked for some sectors, and I would say it will surge once this is all sorted.
The remainers have tried everything, abuse, predictions of doom, lies, court cases and a stubborn refusal to accept a majority decision , even at the expense of their own party and reputation.
They have nothing left in their arsenal now, and resignation is setting in.
Boris and the Brexiteer elements of parliament are strong , committed and on course, with a visibly good strategy, even in these early days.

Theres time to get ready for no deal, and the commitment to see it through, if the EU dont buckle, there is every chance it will backfire on THEM , and show them in a very bad light.

It was a game of bluff, but we always had a decent hand, now its time to smile across the table, and let them know they cant win.

Absolutely right, we started the negotiations on our knees, cap in hand, its no surprise we are in the mess we are now.  

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

No and neither did I. What is happening is that the investment is not being made until they have a clear picture of costs. If its a no deal then you just have to hope that the margins are still in favour of the UK. 

No doubt if the Astra doesnt sell very well, or the margins dont work for PSA, it will be due to Brexit ?

Ellesmere has already shed 650 jobs, was that because of Brexit ?

No doubt the 'other location' resides somewhere that wages are far lower than the UK ?
Can you think of any East European country that meets that criteria ?

[pinfireman]

30 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Henry d? Henry d? Right wing? Now I know you are having a tin bath!!

Probably one of the tinfoil hat brigade!

While Boris got a nice boost from the weekend’s polling, all is not as rosy for his EU counterparts. Irish support for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s Brexit policy has sharply dropped. Less than half the public now support their leader’s pugnacious approach…

It’s a big fall from January when a poll asking the same question asking the same question found 60% backed Varadkar. This has now fallen by 17 points to 43%, with dissatisfaction rising by the same margin. If Boris’s No Deal threat doesn’t make the Taoiseach buckle, domestic pressure will come to bear ever more strongly…

The Irish commentariat are also increasingly questioning Varadkar’s approach. Over the weekend Business Post columnist Colin Murphy argued the backstop has “been a disaster for Ireland”, Dan O’Brien, Chief Economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, warns that the “first duty of those who oppose tribalism is to acknowledge the tribalism of one’s own side”, while Eoghan Harris blasts:

“Unless we bin out fraudulent backstop, Boris Johnson will crash out of the EU, leaving our economy in ruins and our relations with England, our nearest neighbour, in rag order”.

Tectonic plates slowly starting to shift?

Source: Guido Fawkes

1 hour ago, Retsdon said:

So what's your point? Everyone and his dog knows that the EU is making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit, and everyone and his dog knows that the EU plans to unilaterally waive certain 3rd country restrictions for a limited time  to mitigate the most disruptive results of a no deal Brexit on its members. As for the Times report and 'its boycott of talks', it's the wrong terminology. There's no 'boycott'. Given the so called red lines that Theresa May laid down as preconditions to the original negotiations, the WA agreement was the only arrangement that could be arrived at. The hated 'backstop' was a solution to the conundrum of accommodating May's preconditions. So there's no boycott. There's just nothing to say as long as May's preconditions still stand. And anyone who believes that the EU can possibly undermine the integrity of its own Single Market to accommodate the UK doesn't grasp  the fundamental basis on which the whole EU is built.

You see, if you get all your info from Guido all the time, eventually you become unable to differentiate the spin from the content.

Spin? You are laughable! The mainstream media employ spin.............you get the truth from Guido, and you just cannot take it.

[oowee]

6 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

No doubt if the Astra doesnt sell very well, or the margins dont work for PSA, it will be due to Brexit ?

Ellesmere has already shed 650 jobs, was that because of Brexit ?

No doubt the 'other location' resides somewhere that wages are far lower than the UK ?
Can you think of any East European country that meets that criteria ?

? The Astra project has yet to be placed. The decision on location will be years ahead of sales. 

None of us know what is in the spreadsheet, although with all of these things you would expect the decision margins of location to be tight (i would speculate the margins to be very close to the closure costs for the plant minus its redevelopment value.)  It would be reasonable to assume that without a Brexit resolution at the point of the investment decision that the Astra investment will go elsewhere. With a no deal Brexit there are likely to be extra costs and uncertainties in trade we just have to hope that they are less than the margin. 

[oowee]

The news from Guido is that the Irish PM is under pressure to change his policy tack, because a no deal Brexit would be a disaster for Eire. The same no deal Brexit that would be an opportunity for the UK where all talk of disaster comes from project fear. 

We certainly get spin from Guido but its going so fast he is hoping no one can see it. 

[Retsdon]

9 minutes ago, oowee said:

It would be reasonable to assume that without a Brexit resolution at the point of the investment decision that the Astra investment will go elsewhere.

All priced in long ago by the Zealots.

 

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

? The Astra project has yet to be placed. The decision on location will be years ahead of sales. 

Then why the headline, why the NEED to say it ?

Tavares said this

“Frankly I would prefer to put it in Ellesmere Port but if the conditions are bad and I cannot make it profitable then I have to protect the rest of the company,” said Mr Tavares. “We have an alternative to Ellesmere Port.”

 

The threat to move production follows Friday’s warning from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders that a no-deal Brexit was an “existential threat” to the industry.

Vauxhall, which was owned by US carmaker General Motors before being bought by PSA in 2017, launched an ad campaign for the Astra last year that billed its bestselling model as “true Brit”, on the basis that versions of the car have been built at Ellesmere Port for over 40 years.

 So what is it , some kind of carrot on a stick type of thing ?
Whats the point of making the threat, because  thats what it is.

I might not be as experienced in these things as you Grant , but my thoughts are that they have already decided to wrap that plant up and move it somewhere cheaper.
They are using it as pointless leverage, and an excuse.

Every man and his dog know that new car sales are bad, costs are going to be cut across the board, and factories closed.
Not because of Brexit, the 'threat ' to the motor industry in general is from the industry itself.
It has filled its occupancy limits.

2 minutes ago, oowee said:

We certainly get spin from Guido

But is it lies ?

[Gordon R]

Worth a watch.