Quarantine

[Raja Clavata]

13 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

No its not pointless, in fact its far from pointless. How did the virus first get here? answer - on a plane brought in by a passenger. More accurately, brought in by an estimated 20,000 infected passengers

and how much virus still  came in day after day on all those flights from New York, Spain and Italy when their infections were peaking?

Because those flights were (and still are) coming in

Every infected person that came in was another potential breakout

People are still coming into heathrow and getting straight onto the underground

Pointless?  I disagree

Has "person 0" in the UK been identified then? I know the first person believed to have caught the virus in the UK was identified but unless you know who the first person to bring it to the UK was then you are purely assuming they arrived by air? I agree it's a pretty safe bet but since you're referring to accuracy, let's start from a verifiable and known position -  I don't expect you to provide a name but a date of arrival or returning a positive test result would be a start...

[lancer425]

9 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Has "person 0" in the UK been identified then? I know the first person believed to have caught the virus in the UK was identified but unless you know who the first person to bring it to the UK was then you are purely assuming they arrived by air? I agree it's a pretty safe bet but since you're referring to accuracy, let's start from a verifiable and known position -  I don't expect you to provide a name but a date of arrival or returning a positive test result would be a start...

I think that would be nearly impossible with any degree of accuracy.  I do not believe they are 100% on when it actually started here, many are suggesting they had it late last year here.  And until we get tested will never know.

  But fact is they are testing if you suspect you have it , but the random tests might throw up some evidence to support many peoples suspicions that they have indeed had it months ago.

The track & Trace research well be useful if it all goes to plan, but in answer to your question on it starting over here. I personally do not see that we will ever get a genuine   answer.

[Jaymo]

Seem people really do only read the newspapers- seem to have forgotten that we have a channel tunnel, ferry system and of course our own cruise liners.

But lets only focus on Air travel as that’s their only thing the news has had the intelligence to pick up on so far...

Your all basically sheep with a bit too much time on your hands 😂

[Vince Green]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

Has "person 0" in the UK been identified then? I know the first person believed to have caught the virus in the UK was identified but unless you know who the first person to bring it to the UK was then you are purely assuming they arrived by air? I agree it's a pretty safe bet but since you're referring to accuracy, let's start from a verifiable and known position -  I don't expect you to provide a name but a date of arrival or returning a positive test result would be a start...

Patient zero was an expression applied to AIDS/ HIV and if it applied at all to this pandemic they would be in China. There can only be one patient zero.

The first confirmed case in the UK was a Chinese national in York in mid January but they had not travelled recently. Anecdotal evidence suggests the infection was present at least a month before but just being diagnosed as pneumonia or viral cough and probably came from multiple individuals..

A lot of evidence is accumulating now about skiers returning from the Austrian resort of Ischgl and a bar called the Kitzloch Bar. Dozens of cases around Europe are linked to this bar. but other resorts in Northern Italy are also in the frame.

It appears that a lot of these ski resorts use seasonal Chinese workers as room maids, cleaners and kitchen staff so the route of the infection can be tracked back but the interesting thing is that the timescales don't tally at all.

The evidence that China must have tried to cover up the outbreak for a long time, is becoming more compelling. Everything comes out in the end

Edited May 10, 2020 by Vince Green

[JohnfromUK]

50 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

The evidence that China must have tried to cover up the outbreak for a long time, is becoming more compelling.

And here is a piece; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449?fbclid=IwAR1pojbuAcS8c0EKkTkGQwUKAS9WDKqMZQSCX-UOukvU0tAEBl4ldByKEM4

[TIGHTCHOKE]

very interesting, I reckon we will see more like this.

[Vince Green]

11 minutes ago, Jaymo said:

Seem people really do only read the newspapers- seem to have forgotten that we have a channel tunnel, ferry system and of course our own cruise liners.

But lets only focus on Air travel as that’s their only thing the news has had the intelligence to pick up on so far...

Your all basically sheep with a bit too much time on your hands 😂

Unfortunately, the sheer number of passengers carried by air make the case against it overwhelming.  

[AVB]

7 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Unfortunately, the sheer number of passengers carried by air make the case against it overwhelming.  

But people argue that we need a complete lockdown of the borders “it only takes one etc”. 
 

Personally I think closing the borders is completely impractical for a country like ours. 

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, AVB said:

I think closing the borders is completely impractical for a country like ours. 

I'm inclined to agree with that.  One half of me says closing borders would make sense, but the other says you can't fully close them - we need transport for goods, some 'essential work travel', UK citizens caught overseas (though most of those must be home by now), Armed Forces, diplomatic staff etc.

You could argue to close for all but 'essential' travel - but how do you manage and enforce that in any practical way?

UK air passengers is a staggering roughly 10 million a month https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/british-travellers-iata-world-air-transport-statistics-a9029366.html

That is an incredible number.  If just 1 in every 100,000 is infected, then that is 100 infection cases a month.

[AVB]

4 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I'm inclined to agree with that.  One half of me says closing borders would make sense, but the other says you can't fully close them - we need transport for goods, some 'essential work travel', UK citizens caught overseas (though most of those must be home by now), Armed Forces, diplomatic staff etc.

You could argue to close for all but 'essential' travel - but how do you manage and enforce that in any practical way?

UK air passengers is a staggering roughly 10 million a month https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/british-travellers-iata-world-air-transport-statistics-a9029366.html

That is an incredible number.  If just 1 in every 100,000 is infected, then that is 100 infection cases a month.

And that number only includes air travel and not trains, cars and lorries. It is a lot, lot less than that now though. Like you I agree it sounds sensible but it is just impractical. Works in countries like New Zealand but a very different profile. 

[Old farrier]

24 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

I'm inclined to agree with that.  One half of me says closing borders would make sense, but the other says you can't fully close them - we need transport for goods, some 'essential work travel', UK citizens caught overseas (though most of those must be home by now), Armed Forces, diplomatic staff etc.

You could argue to close for all but 'essential' travel - but how do you manage and enforce that in any practical way?

UK air passengers is a staggering roughly 10 million a month https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/british-travellers-iata-world-air-transport-statistics-a9029366.html

That is an incredible number.  If just 1 in every 100,000 is infected, then that is 100 infection cases a month.

1000 

[Vince Green]

3 minutes ago, AVB said:

But people argue that we need a complete lockdown of the borders “it only takes one etc”. 
 

Personally I think closing the borders is completely impractical for a country like ours. 

When you consider that in the first three months of this year 18.1 Million people landed in the UK (I find that number unbelieveable but its true apparantly) from all sources you can see why we cannot have a lockdown 

[JohnfromUK]

43 minutes ago, Old farrier said:

1000 

Umm, 10 million passengers a month;

- if 1 in 10 million was infected, that would be 1 infection case a month

- if 1 in 1 million was infected, that would be 10 infection cases a month

- if 1 in 100,000 was infected, that would be 100 infection cases a month

But whichever it was, it would not be possible to stop all whether it is 100 or 1000 by testing pre flight.

Edited May 10, 2020 by JohnfromUK

[Old farrier]

7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Umm, 10 million passengers a month;

- if 1 in 10 million was infected, that would be 1 infection case a month

- if 1 in 1 million was infected, that would be 10 infection cases a month

- if 1 in 100,000 was infected, that would be 100 infection cases a month

But whichever it was, it would not be possible to stop all whether it is 100 or 1000 by testing pre flight.

And if they sat next to someone for 15 minutes or within 2 meters of them ? 
 

apparently this is the current track and trace model 

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, Old farrier said:

And if they sat next to someone for 15 minutes or within 2 meters of them ? 
 

apparently this is the current track and trace model 

Yes, so I understand.  Truth is that with 10 million passengers a month, it is going to be an ongoing problem. 

Either you stop the passengers, or you accept that there will be a continual 'import' (and export actually) of cases until both ends of the journey are effectively virus free - which isn't going to happen.  In my view - we have this as an ongoing problem until herd immunity is established - hopefully by a vaccine being rolled out - and we just need to keep the number of cases 'as low as reasonably possible' - in the meantime and hope that better treatments and knowledge of the methods of treatment for those who get it badly improve so that survival rates improve.

[Dave-G]

I'm thinking there is something quite decadent with the world if there are 10 million flying passengers a month - but then again I don't feel the need to travel far from home.

 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Dave-G said:

but then again I don't feel the need to travel far from home.

Nor me, haven't flown for years now.

[lancer425]

And the regulars might not be flying any where as much. I could be wrong but i dont think most people will be just as affluent, when the dust settles. I can see a bit of belt tightening about to come into play.

Might be a lot of hitherto New or lease car advocates, having to opt for 10+ year old cars after this lot. I deal a bit in Bikes mainly, but the occasional car , and i reckon they are up on say a 800 pound cheapish previous being more like a grand now. something is happening. Only going on adds not clear what the actual sales are producing, probably not a lot in this lockdown, unless local to the sale.

[AVB]

16 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

And the regulars might not be flying any where as much. I could be wrong but i dont think most people will be just as affluent, when the dust settles. I can see a bit of belt tightening about to come into play.

Might be a lot of hitherto New or lease car advocates, having to opt for 10+ year old cars after this lot. I deal a bit in Bikes mainly, but the occasional car , and i reckon they are up on say a 800 pound cheapish previous being more like a grand now. something is happening. Only going on adds not clear what the actual sales are producing, probably not a lot in this lockdown, unless local to the sale.

You are right in that a lot fewer people will be flying, buying new cars etc. And that’s not a good thing as it is a slippery slope to stagflation. We need people spending money to stimulate the economy. 
 

on a a personal note I love flying whether it be on holiday or business. It gets a bind at times with delays etc but in general I love the whole experience and will miss it if I do less which is likely. 

[JohnfromUK]

3 minutes ago, AVB said:

on a a personal note I love flying

I hate it !  Roughly on a par with a visit to the dentist, or a clearing blocked drain.  It isn't the flying that is bad - it is the whole 'airport experience'.  I used to do fairly regular flying on business, though only once ever for holiday (shooting and fishing in Central America).

But back on topic - you are right that flying, holidays etc., will be much reduced.  I hope that means that the money that would have gone overseas will be spent more locally (UK hotels, meals out etc.), and actually might help the motor industry in that people may get a car not a holiday

[Raja Clavata]

4 hours ago, lancer425 said:

I think that would be nearly impossible with any degree of accuracy.  I do not believe they are 100% on when it actually started here, many are suggesting they had it late last year here.  And until we get tested will never know.

  But fact is they are testing if you suspect you have it , but the random tests might throw up some evidence to support many peoples suspicions that they have indeed had it months ago.

The track & Trace research well be useful if it all goes to plan, but in answer to your question on it starting over here. I personally do not see that we will ever get a genuine   answer.

That was my initial point. The next one would be that once the cat is out of the bag then that's pretty much it. It also appears to be forgotten that the original plan of the government was that of herd immunity. By the time the policy changed, the cat (or horse, whatever) was well and truly over the hills and far away...

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Raja Clavata said:

By the time the policy changed

I don't believe that has changed ........ as a strategy.

It is still herd immunity, preferably by vaccination.  But the tactics was to take lockdown and other restrictions in order to 'lower the peak' such that the 'current cases' didn't overwhelm the NHS capabilities - and to be fair, that has probably worked for the NHS, but not care homes.

[lancer425]

10 minutes ago, AVB said:

You are right in that a lot fewer people will be flying, buying new cars etc. And that’s not a good thing as it is a slippery slope to stagflation. We need people spending money to stimulate the economy. 
 

on a a personal note I love flying whether it be on holiday or business. It gets a bind at times with delays etc but in general I love the whole experience and will miss it if I do less which is likely. 

I only ever fly to New Zealand either via LA or Singapore, And i hate every second of it every time. its been like that 40 years. Nightmare. hate planes.

[Raja Clavata]

3 hours ago, Vince Green said:

Patient zero was an expression applied to AIDS/ HIV and if it applied at all to this pandemic they would be in China. There can only be one patient zero.

The first confirmed case in the UK was a Chinese national in York in mid January but they had not travelled recently. Anecdotal evidence suggests the infection was present at least a month before but just being diagnosed as pneumonia or viral cough and probably came from multiple individuals..

A lot of evidence is accumulating now about skiers returning from the Austrian resort of Ischgl and a bar called the Kitzloch Bar. Dozens of cases around Europe are linked to this bar. but other resorts in Northern Italy are also in the frame.

It appears that a lot of these ski resorts use seasonal Chinese workers as room maids, cleaners and kitchen staff so the route of the infection can be tracked back but the interesting thing is that the timescales don't tally at all.

The evidence that China must have tried to cover up the outbreak for a long time, is becoming more compelling. Everything comes out in the end

I was talking in the context of the UK.

But that's the point, confirmed, nobody really knows for certain. So making an assumption and then building on it with more "accuracy" seems a bit flawed?

I agree with everything else above.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

I don't believe that has changed ........ as a strategy.

It is still herd immunity, preferably by vaccination.  But the tactics was to take lockdown and other restrictions in order to 'lower the peak' such that the 'current cases' didn't overwhelm the NHS capabilities - and to be fair, that has probably worked for the NHS, but not care homes.

Agreed, the original approach to herd immunity changed based on a model of spaghetti FORTRAN and C++ code knocked up by Dr Ferguson. When the model showed that the original plan would result in up to 500k deaths the Government realised that, as well as overwhelming the NHS, it would also have been political suicide to continue down that path.